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milomilo
Jun 15, 2016, 4:43 AM
In this new study they're looking at widening the Crowchild bridges to add an extra lane in each direction, but they have to do some testing to ensure it's feasible. I'm actually very pleasantly surprised it's even remotely feasible, I assumed that they would have built the bridge with only enough structural support for the lanes it was built with. If they can add lanes, it makes the whole thing a hell of a lot simpler.

Also I'm pleasantly surprised to see this work being done now, I assumed they meant they would do it years from now. Maybe they're actually serious about this.

DizzyEdge
Jun 15, 2016, 4:32 PM
Another Inglewood bridge article

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/inglewood-bridge-meeting-cancelled-brz-community-ninth-avenue-1.3636018

Inglewood bridge meeting cancelled amid conflicting visions for new span
Community group worries 4-lane span will create traffic problems

CBC News Posted: Jun 15, 2016 7:58 AM MT Last Updated: Jun 15, 2016 9:44 AM MT

A disagreement between the city and community groups about how to replace a rusting bridge in Inglewood has prompted officials to cancel an upcoming public meeting on the project.

The iron span on Ninth Avenue S.E. adjacent to Fort Calgary has allowed people to cross the Elbow River since 1909.

Now the city says it's time to tear down the three-lane bridge, and replace it with a four-lane crossing.

But Leslie Robertson, with the Inglewood Community Association, says nearby residents fear a wider bridge will only draw more traffic to the area.

"We do not see Ninth Avenue as being a conduit that is transporting suburbanites to downtown. We see it as being our main street," she said.

craner
Jun 15, 2016, 5:42 PM
Also I'm pleasantly surprised to see this (Crowchild bridge geotech work posted by MT) being done now, I assumed they meant they would do it years from now. Maybe they're actually serious about this.
Me too - perhaps there is hope of something being done in my lifetime. :P

sim
Jun 16, 2016, 7:24 AM
Yes - please go ahead and explain where the city's transportation department don't understand all of these things that you are the global expert on.

https://66.media.tumblr.com/22d7a4eb8dfb9d2e5d4d9be7ba2d78ee/tumblr_n7e781pexk1samhhlo1_500.gif


I didn't say they don't understand these things per se, but much of a particular faction is still held to prehistoric ways of "solving" transportation problems. But yes, there is a distinct lack of erudition in the transportation world and a refusal by many of the old guard to acknowledge a wealth of evidence and embrace a much more holistic view. Might I also add, that it's also amazingly systemic. Even if a person were to be the global expert on it, there are numerous institutionalized and ingrained ways of doing things, that unfortunately, would take a whole wack of people to be simultaneously very knowledgeable and willing, to change things.

And you'd have to be crazy to believe that you can predict traffic flow in 2076.

technomad
Jun 16, 2016, 1:18 PM
wow, really impressed with the Crowchild plans :tup:

The tunnel option makes university drive useful in a way I never would have thought of, and reduces the interchange space massively.

I really hope they cut to the chase and do the tunnel right away, having the roads in the area 'finalized' would make Banff trail / McMahon redevelopments a lot more appealing

speedog
Jun 16, 2016, 4:49 PM
People can't be assuming that there is going to be any McMahon redevelopment any time soon as that is UofC lands and I would suspect that the UofC would like to get their development on the west side of the campus lands complete before looking at anything at McMahon.

mcpish
Jun 17, 2016, 3:12 AM
My Stony Trail Video:

Recorded this past spring while I was in town for the Calgary Expo. I really like Stoney Trail:

wyBPe1PUgKE

Mazrim
Jun 17, 2016, 8:57 PM
An extra workshop was added to the Crowchild Trail sessions for Monday. I'd expect it to be lighter on the amount of people since it's pretty short notice so if you haven't been to one yet, it's a good chance to get some better discussions with staff!

CalgaryAlex
Jul 28, 2016, 4:39 PM
Pretty cool video on the history of the Centre Street bridge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiEDT1m7QTc

Kokkei Mizu
Aug 4, 2016, 1:31 AM
Here's my latest video, Crowchild Trail!

h6mhpL9sHKM

Innersoul1
Aug 5, 2016, 1:18 AM
I have a question about greenery along roadways. Obviously we have a lot of grass along our roadways and I always wonder what the seasonal cost of mowing all of that grass is. Is there any reason why the city couldn't use an alternative that doesn't need maintenace🙃 Maybe wild flowers, native grasses, creepers? All of them are very cold hearty and they have the benefit of looking beautiful.. Obviously there would be an initial cost but it beats all the mowing. Thoughts?

artvandelay
Aug 5, 2016, 3:20 PM
I've always wondered what the point of mowing all that grass is, especially along freeways like deerfoot - the only thing I can think of is to protect against grassfires. I'd be a fan of letting much of the maintained lawns revert to natural grasses.

milomilo
Aug 5, 2016, 3:50 PM
The grass fires argument makes sense. Long grass would be hard to keep clean of garbage too.

Socguy
Aug 5, 2016, 4:32 PM
I've always wondered what the point of mowing all that grass is, especially along freeways like deerfoot - the only thing I can think of is to protect against grassfires. I'd be a fan of letting much of the maintained lawns revert to natural grasses.

Tall grasses and bushes would grow allowing animals like deer to hide out right next to major roads. Asking for trouble...
Eventually if it was never taken care of trees would grow and be a hazard to cars that went off the road.
In the winter tall grasses and shrubs could act as a snow screen causing huge drifts, and or trees shading the road causing ice.
Not to mention, that if it was never mowed and trees grew, they would eventually start dropping branches and toppling onto the road.

The cheapest solution is to mow the ditches a few times a year.

s211
Aug 5, 2016, 5:31 PM
Tall grasses and bushes would grow allowing animals like deer to hide out right next to major roads. Asking for trouble...
Eventually if it was never taken care of trees would grow and be a hazard to cars that went off the road.
In the winter tall grasses and shrubs could act as a snow screen causing huge drifts, and or trees shading the road causing ice.
Not to mention, that if it was never mowed and trees grew, they would eventually start dropping branches and toppling onto the road.

The cheapest solution is to mow the ditches a few times a year.

And I don't think you'd like how Edmonton tried to greenscape areas along Whitemud, for example. The underbrush becomes a comb, trapping every possible piece of trash that comes off or out of vehicles and neighbouring areas. It ends up magnifying the amount of trash and presents quite ghetto.

Socguy
Aug 5, 2016, 6:36 PM
And I don't think you'd like how Edmonton tried to greenscape areas along Whitemud, for example. The underbrush becomes a comb, trapping every possible piece of trash that comes off or out of vehicles and neighbouring areas. It ends up magnifying the amount of trash and presents quite ghetto.

Wouldn't doubt it. I know that the province occasionally allows farmers outside the city to harvest the grasses that grow in some of the large green spaces that road infrastructure comes with. Good way to feed your cows a bunch of trash. :haha:

lineman
Aug 19, 2016, 12:39 AM
Changes to Memorial-Edmonton Tr-4th

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/city-making-big-changes-to-traffic-rules-on-memorial-drive-near-edmonton-trail

Sean Chu is hilarious. Since when are commuters going 70 through here if the area is usually bunged up during rush?

milomilo
Aug 19, 2016, 3:30 AM
As irritating as Sean Chu is, I agree with him here. There is no point dropping the speed limit as far as I can tell. There are no pedestrian crossings and it will be irritating in non-peak hours.

outoftheice
Aug 19, 2016, 11:30 AM
As irritating as Sean Chu is, I agree with him here. There is no point dropping the speed limit as far as I can tell. There are no pedestrian crossings and it will be irritating in non-peak hours.

My guess is that the new lowered speed limit has to do with the new lane reversals being implemented for left turns at Memorial and Edmonton Trail. Doing 70 along that stretch probably lowers the reaction time for drivers. That being said in off peak times I agree that it will be a huge irritant. There are no pedestrian crossings and the bike path is well back from the road along this stretch. The CPS are going to clean up with speeding tickets!

lineman
Aug 19, 2016, 1:53 PM
As irritating as Sean Chu is, I agree with him here. There is no point dropping the speed limit as far as I can tell. There are no pedestrian crossings and it will be irritating in non-peak hours.

There are currently three pedestrian crossings in the work area ( or are you referring to lone crossings?), and a bike lane crossing is being added.

Outoftheice makes a good point about perhaps the lane reversals being a factor.

YYCguys
Aug 19, 2016, 2:03 PM
I see that the 61st Ave SE Greenway (between Chinook LRT station and Chinook Centre) design and construction timeline has been released, as well as the timeline for construction of the pedestrian bridge, but is there a design sketch of the bridge? I can't seem to find one.

outoftheice
Aug 19, 2016, 2:32 PM
Images of the new 61st Ave SE Pedestrian Bridge. Construction starts next month with completion scheduled for November 2017. Once complete the Macleod Trail at-grade pedestrian crossings will be closed and all pedestrian traffic will be directed through the pedestrian bridge. Good news is the bridge will feature escalators and elevators and connect directly into the second level of Chinook Centre.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqOdAfVUAAAH6Pe.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqOdAfTVUAAQT_N.jpg

Source: https://twitter.com/CBCScott

Innersoul1
Aug 19, 2016, 3:11 PM
WOW! That's pretty impressive

YYCguys
Aug 19, 2016, 3:20 PM
Thank you! Looks amazing! Maybe one day a hotel or residential tower will be built on mall land and connect to it as well (wishful thinking).

CalgaryCheese
Aug 19, 2016, 3:22 PM
That's really cool! I walk between the Ctrain and Chinook relatively often, this will make that walk so much more pleasant!

People.talking
Aug 19, 2016, 8:21 PM
Can't wait till that's finished, it looks pretty damn cool!

lineman
Aug 19, 2016, 9:40 PM
Effectively bringing the mall entrance across MacLeod is a brilliant idea. I would imagine that it would require 24 hour access as the at-grade ped crossing is being eliminated.

milomilo
Aug 20, 2016, 12:03 AM
There are currently three pedestrian crossings in the work area ( or are you referring to lone crossings?), and a bike lane crossing is being added.

Outoftheice makes a good point about perhaps the lane reversals being a factor.

The article states the longish section between the Centre St bridge and East of Edmonton Trail would be 50km/h, and there are no crossings west of the intersection which is what I was referring to. I guess having the intersection 50km/h does make sense though.

That Chinook bridge looks great! More of that sort of thing in the City, please! If I had to criticise though, bringing it all the way to the station would be better.

lineman
Aug 20, 2016, 12:07 AM
Oh yes, it wouldn't make much sense on that long stretch of road. People will go 70-80 regardless.

mersar
Aug 20, 2016, 1:40 AM
Effectively bringing the mall entrance across MacLeod is a brilliant idea. I would imagine that it would require 24 hour access as the at-grade ped crossing is being eliminated.

Its a 50/50 split between CF and the City for the cost of the part over Macleod, and CF is picking up the full tab for the part from there to the mall itself. I assume at least the part spanning Macleod need to be open 24/7 as you can't just get rid of that connection for the 12 hours a day the mall isn't open on average. Past that I can see being closed when the mall isn't open.

Fuzz
Aug 20, 2016, 3:39 AM
http://i.cbc.ca/1.3727554.1471584073!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_940/chinook-pedestrian-bridge.jpg
Sure looks like their is access for that in the dark blue.

CalgaryCheese
Aug 27, 2016, 2:56 AM
http://i.cbc.ca/1.3727554.1471584073!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_940/chinook-pedestrian-bridge.jpg
Sure looks like their is access for that in the dark blue.

I now find myself wondering how it will connect to Chinook. Will it go into the food court or somewhere else? Will they need to move any of the stores or food places inside?

Design-mind
Aug 27, 2016, 4:05 AM
To me the project is a little on the short term thinking side. Why not push this right to the c-train. Eventually these areas will become developed with TOD's. I know not soon but I imagine an area like Brentwood in Vancouver. To me that is what TOD's should look like. The City of Calgary seems to be shy when it comes to building close to the stations. The closest TOD I can think of is The Renaissance At North Hill.

You Need A Thneed
Aug 27, 2016, 6:37 AM
I now find myself wondering how it will connect to Chinook. Will it go into the food court or somewhere else? Will they need to move any of the stores or food places inside?

It looks like it would enter the mall close to the carousel.

Mazrim
Aug 28, 2016, 9:56 PM
To me the project is a little on the short term thinking side. Why not push this right to the c-train. Eventually these areas will become developed with TOD's. I know not soon but I imagine an area like Brentwood in Vancouver. To me that is what TOD's should look like. The City of Calgary seems to be shy when it comes to building close to the stations. The closest TOD I can think of is The Renaissance At North Hill.

I imagine putting elevated all the way to the train would mean any businesses (redeveloped or otherwise) facing 61st would feel left out, as everyone would basically bypass them on their way by.

They want a parkway type space here, so encouraging at grade work and walking in the area is a positive. (In my opinion, at least!)

lubicon
Sep 2, 2016, 6:53 PM
As irritating as Sean Chu is, I agree with him here. There is no point dropping the speed limit as far as I can tell. There are no pedestrian crossings and it will be irritating in non-peak hours.

I agree as well, and my guess is most drivers will simply ignore the new lower speed limit.

lubicon
Sep 2, 2016, 6:57 PM
Forgot to also mention that the Trinity Hills interchange project on Sarcee has been delayed to all the rain this summer. No surprise there as many other major projects (schools is another example) have been delayed in their completion due to the crap summer we have had.

http://us9.campaign-archive2.com/?u=02cb6872cd971e46b2e58fdc4&id=97f0297651

CalgaryAlex
Sep 2, 2016, 7:01 PM
Forgot to also mention that the Trinity Hills interchange project on Sarcee has been delayed to all the rain this summer. No surprise there as many other major projects (schools is another example) have been delayed in their completion due to the crap summer we have had.

http://us9.campaign-archive2.com/?u=02cb6872cd971e46b2e58fdc4&id=97f0297651

Concurrently, the fantastic winter allowed road work and other temperature-sensitive construction to progress almost throughout the whole season.

Acey
Sep 2, 2016, 8:35 PM
How's Macleod/162 Ave coming along?

craner
Sep 3, 2016, 4:33 PM
I saw something in a community newsletter about a 212th Ave. interchange. I assumed that would be a couple of decades away but this article stated it is "shovel ready".

mersar
Sep 5, 2016, 3:58 AM
How's Macleod/162 Ave coming along?

Its coming. Slowly. Probably another year until completion at least though based on their progress when I've gone near it, which I try to avoid as traffic gets pretty snarled down there.

212th Avenue seems quite a ways out. I know there was a plan for an interchange at 194th Ave and the connector over the slough to Silverado that I would have thought would happen well before 212th does.

Mazrim
Sep 5, 2016, 5:41 PM
Its coming. Slowly. Probably another year until completion at least though based on their progress when I've gone near it, which I try to avoid as traffic gets pretty snarled down there.

It doesn't help that the City decided to modify the intersection of Shawnessy Blvd and Shawville Blvd (the West intersection of the Shawnessy/Midlake interchange) to have a dual right during the 162 construction. I don't know if it's still down to a single left there for SB Macleod traffic but it was really bad the last couple weekends I went through there because of the changes.

(Also...the through lane is now really awkward. Hope it was worth it!)

You Need A Thneed
Sep 5, 2016, 9:08 PM
It appears that the plan at 162nd is to build the first bridge, then detour all traffic on top of it, then build the second bridge. In that sense the project isn't even half done yet.

mersar
Sep 6, 2016, 10:03 PM
It appears that the plan at 162nd is to build the first bridge, then detour all traffic on top of it, then build the second bridge. In that sense the project isn't even half done yet.

I had been wondering about that, I thought that bridge looked narrow for the design I'd seen.

Acey
Sep 9, 2016, 11:57 AM
Wanted to check on Stoney SE's 2015 numbers and ended up throwing together this list cause I thought it'd be interesting. YYC/YEG give weekday numbers (and YEG's are from 2014) so I had to extrapolate but the differences are big enough that the order should be right. Didn't want to count highway 2 twice, but QE2 at Ellerslie Rd in Edmonton is ~100k.

10 Busiest Major Routes in Alberta, 2015 (AADT)

1. Deerfoot @ Memorial = 170,070
2. Glenmore Causeway = ~150,000
3. Quesnell Bridge (Whitemud) = ~113,000
4. Henday NW @ Yellowhead = 105,370
5. Crowchild @ Shag = ~100,000
5. Macleod Tr over Fish Creek = ~100,000
7. Memorial @ Deerfoot = ~90,000
8. Yellowhead @ Fort Rd = ~75,000
9. Stoney @ Beddington = 72,940
10. 16 Ave NE @ Deerfoot = ~70,000

Source 1 (http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Documents/Planning/Transportation-Data/Traffic%20Volume%20flow%20maps/traffic-flow-city-2015.pdf), 2 (http://www.transportation.alberta.ca/Content/docType181/production/Traffic%20Volume%20History%202006-2015.pdf), 3 (https://www.edmonton.ca/transportation/RoadsTraffic/AAWDT_TrafficVolumesReport_2009-2014.pdf)

CalgaryCheese
Sep 10, 2016, 2:05 AM
Wanted to check on Stoney SE's 2015 numbers and ended up throwing together this list cause I thought it'd be interesting. YYC/YEG give weekday numbers (and YEG's are from 2014) so I had to extrapolate but the differences are big enough that the order should be right. Didn't want to count highway 2 twice, but QE2 at Ellerslie Rd in Edmonton is ~100k.

10 Busiest Major Routes in Alberta, 2015 (AADT)

1. Deerfoot @ Memorial = 170,070
2. Glenmore Causeway = ~150,000
3. Quesnell Bridge (Whitemud) = ~113,000
4. Henday NW @ Yellowhead = 105,370
5. Crowchild @ Shag = ~100,000
5. Macleod Tr over Fish Creek = ~100,000
7. Memorial @ Deerfoot = ~90,000
8. Yellowhead @ Fort Rd = ~75,000
9. Stoney @ Beddington = 72,940
10. 16 Ave NE @ Deerfoot = ~70,000

Source 1 (http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Documents/Planning/Transportation-Data/Traffic%20Volume%20flow%20maps/traffic-flow-city-2015.pdf), 2 (http://www.transportation.alberta.ca/Content/docType181/production/Traffic%20Volume%20History%202006-2015.pdf), 3 (https://www.edmonton.ca/transportation/RoadsTraffic/AAWDT_TrafficVolumesReport_2009-2014.pdf)

Thanks for this very interesting list!:tup: I'm a bit surprised that there's only three Edmonton roads on here compared to Calgary's seven, thought it would be a bit more balanced.

It makes sense that the causeway is that high on the list though, I would avoid it except it's really the only reasonable way sometimes, there's no real way to avoid it.

milomilo
Sep 10, 2016, 2:36 AM
Thanks for this very interesting list!:tup: I'm a bit surprised that there's only three Edmonton roads on here compared to Calgary's seven, thought it would be a bit more balanced.

It makes sense that the causeway is that high on the list though, I would avoid it except it's really the only reasonable way sometimes, there's no real way to avoid it.

Also surprising that SW Henday isn't on there - that is the most consistently congested bit of freeway we have in this province in my experience. Shows it needs those extra lanes yesterday though.

Acey
Sep 10, 2016, 5:41 AM
Also surprising that SW Henday isn't on there - that is the most consistently congested bit of freeway we have in this province in my experience. Shows it needs those extra lanes yesterday though.

SW Henday is not there because that's not the busiest point on Henday, and only the busiest point made the list. For what it's worth, SW Henday is badly congested but that's cause it's underbuilt not really because of absolute volume which is at ~80k per day on the SW leg east of the river. 14 St in Calgary nearly handles that much on a weekday. But man, that Henday/Yellowhead interchange handles an insane amount of volume. It's bonkers up there.

Thanks for this very interesting list!:tup: I'm a bit surprised that there's only three Edmonton roads on here compared to Calgary's seven, thought it would be a bit more balanced.

Really it's 6 to 4 for Calgary, as QE2 in Edmonton would slot in at number 5... but again highway 2 is already on the list at #1 so I didn't include it.

Acey
Sep 10, 2016, 6:08 AM
This is probably more accurate and includes QE2.


1. Deerfoot @ Memorial = 170,070
2. Glenmore Causeway = ~150,000
3. Quesnell Bridge (Whitemud) = ~113,000
4. Henday NW @ Yellowhead = 105,370
5. QE2 @ Ellerslie = 99,210
6. Macleod Tr over Fish Creek = ~93,000
7. Crowchild @ Shag = ~92,000
8. Memorial @ Deerfoot = ~90,000
9. Yellowhead @ Fort Rd = ~75,000
10. Stoney @ Beddington = 72,940

suburbia
Sep 10, 2016, 5:02 PM
This is probably more accurate and includes QE2.


1. Deerfoot @ Memorial = 170,070
2. Glenmore Causeway = ~150,000
3. Quesnell Bridge (Whitemud) = ~113,000
4. Henday NW @ Yellowhead = 105,370
5. QE2 @ Ellerslie = 99,210
6. Macleod Tr over Fish Creek = ~93,000
7. Crowchild @ Shag = ~92,000
8. Memorial @ Deerfoot = ~90,000
9. Yellowhead @ Fort Rd = ~75,000
10. Stoney @ Beddington = 72,940

What is all included in "Glenmore Causeway"? Doesn't the causeway include several intersections? If you just take, as an example, Glenmore at MacLeod, I think it would be less.

Acey
Sep 10, 2016, 7:00 PM
What is all included in "Glenmore Causeway"? Doesn't the causeway include several intersections? If you just take, as an example, Glenmore at MacLeod, I think it would be less.

Causeway meaning Glenmore Trail causeway, i.e. the section of the road over the Elbow River. Glenmore at Macleod would be 110k-ish.

Acey
Sep 10, 2016, 7:20 PM
You can see that 14 St has volume to make the list and so does 97 St in Edmonton but I was trying to keep it to freeways/expressways? I dunno.
http://i.imgur.com/mUiT3W6.png

Acey
Sep 11, 2016, 8:28 PM
Interesting numbers, thanks for doing that.

Not surprising about the Causeway: It's what you get when you use one piece of infrastructure to serve two of the busiest roads in the province. Also, as it's been the City's most western crossing of the Elbow river for the last 50 years, it makes sense that a huge number of people are funnelled towards it.

Yeah I knew Glenmore Trail numbers were crazy but I didn't know it was only about 15% off of Deerfoot. Glenmore does what a combination of Whitemud/Henday do, so it will be interesting to see what happens when Stoney SW opens - should provide at least 10k of relief to 14 St and Glenmore.

lubicon
Sep 12, 2016, 6:46 PM
Those Glenmore numbers explain my pain every day during my afternoon commute. I hate that stretch of road.

srperrycgy
Sep 16, 2016, 7:22 PM
If you're wondering like me what is going on at Sarcee & 16th Ave NW, here you go:

n7xSA5xc454

suburbia
Sep 16, 2016, 7:34 PM
This is probably more accurate and includes QE2.

1. Deerfoot @ Memorial = 170,070
2. Glenmore Causeway = ~150,000

Follow-up question.

While measuring traffic on a causeway is quite straight forward, I'm curious how the measure is made for Deerfoot at Memorial. If we take it verbatim, it would be the number of vehicles that are crossing Memorial on Deerfoot in either direction. If that is actually the case, the number is not fully representative, because a large number of vehicles are either turning on Memorial, or entering Deerfoot from Memorial. In either case, that massive number of cars doesn't cross Memorial @ Deerfoot.

Anyway, if I look dumb while actually trying to understand how a causeway is compared to an intersection, so be it. What is the actual calculation for "Deerfoot at Memorial" when considering all the ramps?

EDIT:

If the number is from this City of Calgary page, it is important to note what it includes and what it doesn't. City says that the busiest point on Deerfoot is between Memorial and 16th, which is a little different from Deerfoot at Memorial. If measuring just north of Memorial as the City page says, it doesn't count the tens of thousands of cars their go north on Deerfoot and exit on Memorial, or from Memorial head south on Deerfoot. Anyway, pretty hard to compare Glenmore to Deerfoot when you consider this reality (though agree that stretch of Deerfoot just south of 16th Ave would be busiest).
http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Pages/Projects/Current-Planning-Projects/Deerfoot-Trail-Study.aspx

Further point of note - for that stretch that is the daily average for Deerfoot. Weekdays can easily get above 200,000.

suburbia
Sep 16, 2016, 7:38 PM
You can see that 14 St has volume to make the list and so does 97 St in Edmonton but I was trying to keep it to freeways/expressways? I dunno.
http://i.imgur.com/mUiT3W6.png

Where is this graphic from? Just curious about how recent it is and if it is a a weekly average or a weekday.

[EDIT]

If it is based on this City information, that (159193 for 2015) is average of just the weekdays, whereas the "segment" number for Deerfoot was average for the week.
http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Documents/data/2015-AAWT/2015-aawt-Glenmore-Tr-Causeway-West-of-14St-SW.pdf

craner
Sep 16, 2016, 11:44 PM
If you're wondering like me what is going on at Sarcee & 16th Ave NW, here you go:

n7xSA5xc454

Thanks for posting that.
Quite a bit going on there.

Fuzz
Sep 17, 2016, 1:28 AM
Yup, feel like I'd need to do a few laps on the traffic circle just to take it all in.

dmuzika
Sep 17, 2016, 5:24 AM
Yup, feel like I'd need to do a few laps on the traffic circle just to take it all in.

I wish they would have included 2 lanes going from Sarcee NB to TCH 1 WB....oh well.

Mazrim
Sep 17, 2016, 3:02 PM
Follow-up question.

While measuring traffic on a causeway is quite straight forward, I'm curious how the measure is made for Deerfoot at Memorial. If we take it verbatim, it would be the number of vehicles that are crossing Memorial on Deerfoot in either direction. If that is actually the case, the number is not fully representative, because a large number of vehicles are either turning on Memorial, or entering Deerfoot from Memorial. In either case, that massive number of cars doesn't cross Memorial @ Deerfoot.

Anyway, if I look dumb while actually trying to understand how a causeway is compared to an intersection, so be it. What is the actual calculation for "Deerfoot at Memorial" when considering all the ramps?

EDIT:

If the number is from this City of Calgary page, it is important to note what it includes and what it doesn't. City says that the busiest point on Deerfoot is between Memorial and 16th, which is a little different from Deerfoot at Memorial. If measuring just north of Memorial as the City page says, it doesn't count the tens of thousands of cars their go north on Deerfoot and exit on Memorial, or from Memorial head south on Deerfoot. Anyway, pretty hard to compare Glenmore to Deerfoot when you consider this reality (though agree that stretch of Deerfoot just south of 16th Ave would be busiest).
http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Pages/Projects/Current-Planning-Projects/Deerfoot-Trail-Study.aspx

Further point of note - for that stretch that is the daily average for Deerfoot. Weekdays can easily get above 200,000.
I think you're taking this far too literally. You actually think they would miss the fact that some turning movements happen before or after the bridge itself on Memorial? It's easy to set up count stations on each turning movement, and they'll get an exact number of total traffic moving in each direction. If they're looking for a raw number of cars on Deerfoot, there's no problem with setting it up between interchanges.

Where are you getting this "weekdays can easily get above 200,000"? Is this some number you decided on yourself? Was it one day of the year when the road is it at it's busiest? Why would one day matter when the average is more indicative of the actual demand on the road? I'm inclined to trust the City's counts and modeling over napkin math.

suburbia
Sep 19, 2016, 12:45 AM
I think you're taking this far too literally. You actually think they would miss the fact that some turning movements happen before or after the bridge itself on Memorial? It's easy to set up count stations on each turning movement, and they'll get an exact number of total traffic moving in each direction. If they're looking for a raw number of cars on Deerfoot, there's no problem with setting it up between interchanges.

Dude - why don't you click the CoC link I provided, that actually states that this number is on the road section NORTH of Memorial and SOUTH of 16th Ave N. So the person that made the "list" was wrong by saying it was Deerfoot at Memorial.

Please do the homework first. I can't spoon feed you any more.

Mazrim
Sep 19, 2016, 3:34 PM
Dude - why don't you click the CoC link I provided, that actually states that this number is on the road section NORTH of Memorial and SOUTH of 16th Ave N. So the person that made the "list" was wrong by saying it was Deerfoot at Memorial.

Please do the homework first. I can't spoon feed you any more.

:happybirthday:

milomilo
Sep 24, 2016, 4:12 PM
The city has made a neat little page on the history of Crowchild Trail, with historical maps you can compare to today:

https://maps.calgary.ca/Crowchild/

The 1979 one is interesting - you can see Deerfoot, parts of Glenmore and the downtown LRT under construction.

Acey
Sep 24, 2016, 8:09 PM
Dude - why don't you click the CoC link I provided, that actually states that this number is on the road section NORTH of Memorial and SOUTH of 16th Ave N. So the person that made the "list" was wrong by saying it was Deerfoot at Memorial.

Please do the homework first. I can't spoon feed you any more.

The Deerfoot number is not from City of Calgary numbers, but the province numbers and is therefore an exact AADT. I put "Deerfoot at Memorial" because...

a) it looks prettier on the list than "HIGHWAY 2 S OF MEMORIAL DR IN CALGARY" as per the source data
b) the figure for north of Memorial is only a couple thousand less, so still far and away first place so differentiation isn't really required

I posted all 3 sources in the list post and you conveniently ignored them. That's 2 threads now where you tried calling me out without taking 2 seconds to actually read the post or check first, and thus been wrong both times. Please just go away, you're not very good at this internet thing.

lubicon
Sep 26, 2016, 6:46 PM
This almost cuts Ramsey off from Inglewood and 9 Ave headed west. Or is it a welcome way to reduce traffic? I use this road all the time when picking up my kids when they work at Stampede as it provides a great way to access the south end of the grounds and be facing the right direction for going home.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/100-year-deal-close-crossing-1.3777397

suburbia
Sep 26, 2016, 7:23 PM
The Deerfoot number is not from City of Calgary numbers, but the province numbers and is therefore an exact AADT. I put "Deerfoot at Memorial" because...

a) it looks prettier on the list than "HIGHWAY 2 S OF MEMORIAL DR IN CALGARY" as per the source data
b) the figure for north of Memorial is only a couple thousand less, so still far and away first place so differentiation isn't really required

I posted all 3 sources in the list post and you conveniently ignored them. That's 2 threads now where you tried calling me out without taking 2 seconds to actually read the post or check first, and thus been wrong both times.

The irony in your note is palpable. You just confirmed above that your numbers were NOT Deerfoot at Memorial (IE that means I was correct) and then ended with you saying I was wrong.

Yes, it was a technicality and not that big a deal, but drama queening to make it look like I was wrong and slamming me is hardly warranted. Thank-you for clarifying why you mis-articulated the provincial numbers.

As an aside, you really should provide links. And you can't assume everyone knows the acronyms so yeah - you said AADT and I asked where this was from. Not such a crime I think.

CalgaryAlex
Sep 26, 2016, 7:23 PM
This almost cuts Ramsey off from Inglewood and 9 Ave headed west. Or is it a welcome way to reduce traffic? I use this road all the time when picking up my kids when they work at Stampede as it provides a great way to access the south end of the grounds and be facing the right direction for going home.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/100-year-deal-close-crossing-1.3777397

I lived in Ramsay a couple years ago, and I appreciate how cut-off some residents feel. However, I don't think this closure will have much of an impact. 11/12th St provides excellent access to Inglewood without ever having to worry about waiting for a train to pass. This would probably be a bigger deal if the city had already closed off 7 St for the Riverwalk extension. But for now, I doubt it will currently be much of an issue.

I do wonder if the residents on 9 St would accept an underpass at that location, as Carra suggested as a possible work-around.

Acey
Sep 26, 2016, 7:31 PM
The irony in your note is palpable. You just confirmed above that your numbers were NOT Deerfoot at Memorial (IE that means I was correct)

It's Deerfoot Trail just north or south of Memorial Drive. In fact, "Deerfoot at Memorial" is probably the best way to say that succinctly.


As an aside, you really should provide links.

Again, all 3 sources were posted in the original post... not sure why you're having difficulty finding the links. Nothing was mis-articulated, it's the exact numbers out of the provincial document. The others with a "~" are extrapolated because they're not AADT, which again I stated in the post which you conveniently did not read.

CalgaryCheese
Sep 26, 2016, 10:22 PM
The city has made a neat little page on the history of Crowchild Trail, with historical maps you can compare to today:

https://maps.calgary.ca/Crowchild/

The 1979 one is interesting - you can see Deerfoot, parts of Glenmore and the downtown LRT under construction.

Cool page, thanks for sharing! :tup:

milomilo
Sep 26, 2016, 11:48 PM
This almost cuts Ramsey off from Inglewood and 9 Ave headed west. Or is it a welcome way to reduce traffic? I use this road all the time when picking up my kids when they work at Stampede as it provides a great way to access the south end of the grounds and be facing the right direction for going home.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/100-year-deal-close-crossing-1.3777397

Shocking news that a private rail monopoly acts in its best interests and doesn't give a crap about being a good corporate citizen! (Sarcasm aimed at CP, not you, to be clear).

The massive over-balance of power that the rail companies have is a huge failure of Canada's history - they should own none of the mainlines in our city and have much more regulation. It'll probably require them blowing up a few more cities before the political will is there to change things though.

craner
Sep 27, 2016, 3:38 AM
^^Yeah - those aerial photos in the Crowchild study page I find fascinating.

technomad
Sep 27, 2016, 12:35 PM
I lived in Ramsay a couple years ago, and I appreciate how cut-off some residents feel. However, I don't think this closure will have much of an impact. 11/12th St provides excellent access to Inglewood without ever having to worry about waiting for a train to pass. This would probably be a bigger deal if the city had already closed off 7 St for the Riverwalk extension. But for now, I doubt it will currently be much of an issue.

I do wonder if the residents on 9 St would accept an underpass at that location, as Carra suggested as a possible work-around.

maybe they had something like grey line in mind for a 9th st underpass, rather than directly connecting 9th to 9th?

edit: the blue route through the empty lots would be a simpler route, and terminating the route on 9th av forcing traffic left or right with no direct path into the blocks north would probably go over well with the locals

http://i.imgur.com/CoEmjji.jpg

so when CP closes the crossing, what happens to the space occupied by 8th st on the north side of the track? (red square above)

seems like the quick easy win is to just extend the park space, but I'd rather see some new CRU space go there instead :tup:

Fuzz
Sep 27, 2016, 2:07 PM
Building an underpass there seams like a lot of money for little benefit, and with it so close to the Elbow I'd imagine flooding would be an issue. What is this clause they have decided to use? Just curious what the wording is.

MalcolmTucker
Sep 27, 2016, 3:10 PM
Building an underpass there seams like a lot of money for little benefit, and with it so close to the Elbow I'd imagine flooding would be an issue. What is this clause they have decided to use? Just curious what the wording is.

Clause? I doubt any contract that bound the railway in a way that impedes transportation would be enforceable.

All hail the all powerful railways.

technomad
Sep 27, 2016, 3:49 PM
in this case I think CP is just playing bad cop, taking the heat for a crossing the city would rather be closed for green line anyway

besides, end result is good. all hail grade separation :cool:

Mazrim
Sep 27, 2016, 4:19 PM
The city has made a neat little page on the history of Crowchild Trail, with historical maps you can compare to today:

https://maps.calgary.ca/Crowchild/

The 1979 one is interesting - you can see Deerfoot, parts of Glenmore and the downtown LRT under construction.
Over at today's Deerfoot Meadows in the 1979 photo, I'm curious what industrial process is happening there that's dumping stuff into the Bow River. You can see it leaves a noticeable swath in the water for quite a ways.

CrossedTheTracks
Sep 27, 2016, 5:06 PM
What is this clause they have decided to use? Just curious what the wording is.

Isn't it merely the case that they own their rights-of-way exclusively, and there's nothing anybody can do about it? Any crossings of their rights-of-way are permitted out of the goodness of their boundless hearts.

(Don't take what I wrote literally, that's just my interpretation of what I remember, which could be very, very wrong...)

Fuzz
Sep 27, 2016, 5:19 PM
I was just curious because the headline is "100-year-old deal allows railway to close Ramsay-Inglewood crossing" which makes it sound like their was some special clause for that crossing.

CrossedTheTracks
Sep 27, 2016, 6:04 PM
I was just curious because the headline is "100-year-old deal allows railway to close Ramsay-Inglewood crossing" which makes it sound like their was some special clause for that crossing.

This is 100% speculation on my part: 100 years ago, CPR made a deal with the city that said, "City, you can create and maintain a level crossing. We reserve the right, in perpetuity, to terminate this agreement with X months notice."

I tried Googling for something factual, but came up empty.

lineman
Sep 27, 2016, 6:37 PM
Over at today's Deerfoot Meadows in the 1979 photo, I'm curious what industrial process is happening there that's dumping stuff into the Bow River. You can see it leaves a noticeable swath in the water for quite a ways.

Cominco had a fertilizer plant there.

lubicon
Sep 27, 2016, 6:47 PM
Pretty sure this is not just some local deal made between the City and the CPR. Railroads are governed by federal law and I would think the Railway Act dictates what the railroads can and cannot do and what their legal rights and responsibilities are. Just speculating, but it seems like they can basically allow crossing of their tracks essentially at their will. If you recall, they rescinded permission to a whitewater rafting company out of Golden to use an existing crossing earlier this year as well, in the name of safety and in all likelihood also in the name of liability. If the railroads are going to be held legally liable for what happens at crossings then I don't blame them for wanting to close ones that pose a (financial) risk.

MalcolmTucker
Sep 27, 2016, 6:49 PM
Cominco had a fertilizer plant there.

Ahh. That is enough to do a fast dig:


COMINCO SHUTDOWN PROCEEDS: [Final Edition]
Calgary Herald [Calgary, Alta] 04 Nov 1993: C3.

Vancouver-based Cominco Ltd. confirmed Wednesday it will close its 52-year-old fertilizer plant in Calgary early in the new year.

A company spokesman could not say how many of the plant`s 41 employees would be thrown out of work when it closes Jan. 31, noting that many will be offered early retirement packages.

"It`s an old plant, the costs of production were increasing and it was not economical to run anymore," explained Cominco spokesman Ralph Eastman.

The company originally announced in March 1992 that it would close the plant, which produces ammonium nitrate fertilizer and was managed by Cominco Fertilizer Ltd., by mid-1994.

Eastman said the provincial Environment Department will assess the property during the decommissioning of the plant. Cominco plans to sell the property, a 300-acre site south of Heritage Drive S.E. between Deerfoot Trail and the Bow River.

The facility was built in 1941 for the federal government and sold to Cominco after the Second World War.

Ottawa needed the chemical compound produced at the plant for use in explosives.

Cominco Fertilizer also operates plants in Carseland and Joffre.

lubicon
Sep 27, 2016, 8:07 PM
I did not know that. It's pretty rare that an existing road today was there before the railroad was. That does make it interesting.

lubicon
Sep 27, 2016, 10:20 PM
It's a really interesting history. 8th street and Spiller road was the original Macleod Trail, staying south/east of the Elbow river without crossing it, and terminating at 9th ave/the bow river. While that road was in use around the time of the establishment of Fort Calgary as the path to Fort Macleod, it was laid out along the Old North Trail, in use for thousands of years by First Nations.

The first Hudson's Bay Company store in Calgary was located on 8th street north of 9th avenue, kind of across 8th street from the Dean House.

That's so obvious on a map now that you point it out.

Fuzz
Sep 28, 2016, 1:58 PM
You can see it a bit better here:
https://maps.calgary.ca/Crowchild/
if you select 1924.

jeremy.r
Sep 28, 2016, 8:04 PM
Concept selection/recommendations are up for the Crowchild Trail study. It's a bit awkward to see things using FlipSnack and the online tool, a PDF would have been a nice option but anyways here it is:

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Pages/Projects/Current-Planning-Projects/crowchild-trail-study/Crowchild-Trail-Study.aspx?redirect=/crowchild

The central section recommendation is an interchange at Kensington Rd and a partial interchange (ramps on the north side only) at 5th Ave, with all of Crowchild lowered to keep those two streets at existing grade. While I really liked the tunnel option, this is about 4x less cost according to the technical evaluation so maybe better overall.

Mazrim
Sep 28, 2016, 8:24 PM
Concept selection/recommendations are up for the Crowchild Trail study. It's a bit awkward to see things using FlipSnack and the online tool, a PDF would have been a nice option but anyways here it is:

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Pages/Projects/Current-Planning-Projects/crowchild-trail-study/Crowchild-Trail-Study.aspx?redirect=/crowchild

The central section recommendation is an interchange at Kensington Rd and a partial interchange (ramps on the north side only) at 5th Ave, with all of Crowchild lowered to keep those two streets at existing grade. While I really liked the tunnel option, this is about 4x less according to the technical evaluation so maybe better overall.

In the feedback portion, I was able to open the images to a very large size by right clicking them to open the image in a new tab.

jeremy.r
Sep 28, 2016, 9:13 PM
In the feedback portion, I was able to open the images to a very large size by right clicking them to open the image in a new tab.

Thanks, that definitely helps. Still isn't ideal to move between sections, and I don't see any benefit for all the other information in FlipSnack as opposed to a PDF. Maybe it's helpful for mobile users or something?

Overall I've been impressed with the continuity of this study in terms of how all ideas are tied back to original study goals, how there were comments/explanations for why concepts did or did not continue throughout, how themes were incorporated into concepts, etc.

:cheers:

CalgaryAlex
Sep 29, 2016, 3:08 PM
maybe they had something like grey line in mind for a 9th st underpass, rather than directly connecting 9th to 9th?

edit: the blue route through the empty lots would be a simpler route, and terminating the route on 9th av forcing traffic left or right with no direct path into the blocks north would probably go over well with the locals

http://i.imgur.com/CoEmjji.jpg

so when CP closes the crossing, what happens to the space occupied by 8th st on the north side of the track? (red square above)

seems like the quick easy win is to just extend the park space, but I'd rather see some new CRU space go there instead :tup:

Those are some great ideas for moving traffic to 9th Ave. The blue route is also shorter, so less expensive. With such low traffic volumes, it will be hard to justify the expense of an underpass in the first place. However, Ramsay has huge infill potential which could dramatically increase the population there, making an underpass much more necessary.

I'd also rather see the city turn both sides of the crossing into development opportunities. If they go ahead with the extension of the Riverwalk along the Elbow, there will be plenty of world-class green space in the area.

MasterG
Sep 30, 2016, 8:34 PM
Those are some great ideas for moving traffic to 9th Ave. The blue route is also shorter, so less expensive. With such low traffic volumes, it will be hard to justify the expense of an underpass in the first place. However, Ramsay has huge infill potential which could dramatically increase the population there, making an underpass much more necessary.

I'd also rather see the city turn both sides of the crossing into development opportunities. If they go ahead with the extension of the Riverwalk along the Elbow, there will be plenty of world-class green space in the area.

I really don't understand why the existing access is necessary to replace, for vehicles at least. Apart from occasional events - Stampede, Flames games - which would crowd any road you build anyways, is there really a need to maintain auto-movements at this site for millions of dollars? Ramsay isn't exactly a huge neighbourhood with high traffic demand that can't be served with existing connections. 2015 traffic counts estimated 3,000 daily vehicles at the site proposed to be closed, hardly a major corridor.

I am all for accessibility and connectivity, but a high-quality bicycle / pedestrian corridor under/over the tracks would be far better for the neighbourhood than firming up existing car-dominated infrastructure. It would also solve many of the cut-through problems that residents want to avoid with traffic from major events.

CalgaryAlex
Sep 30, 2016, 9:17 PM
I really don't understand why the existing access is necessary to replace, for vehicles at least. Apart from occasional events - Stampede, Flames games - which would crowd any road you build anyways, is there really a need to maintain auto-movements at this site for millions of dollars? Ramsay isn't exactly a huge neighbourhood with high traffic demand that can't be served with existing connections. 2015 traffic counts estimated 3,000 daily vehicles at the site proposed to be closed, hardly a major corridor.

I am all for accessibility and connectivity, but a high-quality bicycle / pedestrian corridor under/over the tracks would be far better for the neighbourhood than firming up existing car-dominated infrastructure. It would also solve many of the cut-through problems that residents want to avoid with traffic from major events.

I do have to agree. I don't think a replacement vehicle route is necessary for decades to come. Ramsay may indeed become a more popular area for redevelopment, but that would probably only add dozens of new residents. I can't see towers being built anywhere in the neighbourhood that would push the population up by hundreds.

The development at Union Bridge would have been extensive, but anyone who lives there could easily just use 11/12 St for access to Inglewood.

Edit: I could also see a number of other new downtown underpasses exceeding this one in value. This will undoubtedly remain low priority for a long time. If they even bother looking at this before 11 St SW, it would be a shock to me.

DizzyEdge
Sep 30, 2016, 11:03 PM
I guess the main change will be most people going to Ramsay from the north will now be going down 11th St -> 19th ave, vs Spiller, so there will be an increase of local traffic on 19th which might be detrimental to the residents. Then again, 3000 a day doesn't sound like a ton. Might be wise to enhance the ped crossings at 11th st, 9st and Spiller though.

DoubleK
Oct 1, 2016, 8:57 PM
It looked like they were paving the McLeod Flyover at 162 today.

Won't be long until traffic is on the bridge and McLeod becomes free flow.

milomilo
Oct 1, 2016, 10:58 PM
Concept selection/recommendations are up for the Crowchild Trail study. It's a bit awkward to see things using FlipSnack and the online tool, a PDF would have been a nice option but anyways here it is:

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TP/Pages/Projects/Current-Planning-Projects/crowchild-trail-study/Crowchild-Trail-Study.aspx?redirect=/crowchild

The central section recommendation is an interchange at Kensington Rd and a partial interchange (ramps on the north side only) at 5th Ave, with all of Crowchild lowered to keep those two streets at existing grade. While I really liked the tunnel option, this is about 4x less cost according to the technical evaluation so maybe better overall.

I agree - the tunnel would have been the best, but for 4x the (probably already substantial) cost I agree the money could be better spent elsewhere.

Apparently the short term fix for the 17th Ave area (widening the bridges) is only around $80 million or so, according to the PM in an interview on the CBC. That sounds like an utter bargain to me, to go from one through lane going north to three, and to have the northbound on-ramps join from the right hand lane. The PM seemed pretty confident this would go ahead soon too, which is great. Sadly though going southbound remains with two through lanes.

RicoLance21
Oct 2, 2016, 2:48 PM
I agree - the tunnel would have been the best, but for 4x the (probably already substantial) cost I agree the money could be better spent elsewhere.

Apparently the short term fix for the 17th Ave area (widening the bridges) is only around $80 million or so, according to the PM in an interview on the CBC. That sounds like an utter bargain to me, to go from one through lane going north to three, and to have the northbound on-ramps join from the right hand lane. The PM seemed pretty confident this would go ahead soon too, which is great. Sadly though going southbound remains with two through lanes.

I think what should at least be done is to have Crowchild trenched deep enough so that it would be easier to encapsulate and build a new boulevard atop like the 'tunnel' option, complete with bike lanes and parking lanes. New potential for medium density commercial/residential should ensue from there.

technomad
Oct 2, 2016, 4:34 PM
^ that's not a bad idea, I really liked the tunnel plan, but hard to justify with a 400% price premium..

from what I recall of the ultimate tunnel plan, aside from having the local/express traffic separation, the only access movement loss with this one is south from 5th av, and having kensington or the u-turn on 16th are decent workarounds to that

if the tunnel isn't likely to ever happen, then I think that string of roundabouts in this new plan, and university drive itself south of 16th could just go away..

north of 16th, tie university into the service access roads east of crowchild and free up more space in the south for infill developments

Ramsayfarian
Oct 2, 2016, 8:30 PM
I guess the main change will be most people going to Ramsay from the north will now be going down 11th St -> 19th ave, vs Spiller, so there will be an increase of local traffic on 19th which might be detrimental to the residents. Then again, 3000 a day doesn't sound like a ton. Might be wise to enhance the ped crossings at 11th st, 9st and Spiller though.


Long-term Ramsay resident and I seldom ever take Spiller to 9th ave. On the rare occasion that I do, I'm usually thwarted by a train and end up doing a u-turn. Then I vow to never go that way again. Rinse and repeat.

Years ago the community complained to CP about them blocking the road and CP told them to get stuffed that if they didn't like it they will close the road. Wonder how long until CP forces the city to close the 11 st SW crossing.

The sidewalk on 24th ave and Spiller road still has Macleod trail stamped in it.

DizzyEdge
Oct 3, 2016, 2:59 PM
Perhaps sooner than we think
http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/10/01/choo-choos-choose-wrong-road

Ramsayfarian
Oct 3, 2016, 7:48 PM
Perhaps sooner than we think
http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/10/01/choo-choos-choose-wrong-road

That's the first I've heard of that. Is he basing that on fact or did he just pull that out of his ass?