[Halifax] Nova Centre | 65-58-58 m | 16-15-14 fl | Completed

[halifaxboyns]

I've enjoyed the range of comments on the herald's articles; lots of interesting debate both informed and not.

I find it interesting that save the view brought in this expert. One comment which I submitted, but hasn't yet (and may never be posted) is my examination of the graphs in the STV eastlink movie from their website.

The statement the guy makes is that the convention centre attendance has dropped in the US and Canada.
But if you look at the graphs they show; it does show a drop in Canada and we haven't gotten back to that level; but once it hits bottom, it levels and starts a slowly increasing trend.

For the US, it drops, then bottoms then rises and then drops; so the trend is unbalanced and if I read the times correctly; I'd say it corresponds with the economy - economic growth versus weakness.

[haligonia]

I really like these new renderings! The idea of a skating rink on Grafton is cool. Also, I like the idea of teaming up with NSCAD for the public art; it could produce some interesting results.

If done right, this project could turn out fantastic!

[someone123]

"It doesn't reflect local culture"

"Okay, we'll make it look like a lighthouse or a sail"

[Dmajackson]

I've been avoiding this thread recently but WOW! with those new renderings I might start posting more smiley faces. :)

Let's just hope the art design competition doesnt end up with more lighthouses downtown ... :sly:

[beyeas]

I've been avoiding this thread recently but WOW! with those new renderings I might start posting more smiley faces. :)

Yeah I am back to feeling more positive about this too. The original design did nothing for me... but the article this morning gave me hope that this may turn out ok after all.

Let's just hope the art design competition doesnt end up with more lighthouses downtown ... :sly:

Someone I think that chance of that one though is slim (see someone123's comment above). I had the same reaction he did!

[terrynorthend]

I'm just worried now that these great renderings make me want this project even more! I had grown a bit ambivalent because of the butt ugly design. This had better not die on the table.

[someone123]

The glass facade along Argyle makes a huge difference. It also shows the scale of the development and how the convention centre won't be a "basement".

It's good that more information is going out now. It was a very one-sided "debate" before, with one side making up stories and the other refusing to respond.

[Empire]

Message to STV:
Any town that can attract the Queen Mary II twice in the span of 3 months can certainly attract its fair share of conventions.

WAKE UP!!!!

[fenwick16]

I'm just worried now that these great renderings make me want this project even more! I had grown a bit ambivalent because of the butt ugly design. This had better not die on the table.

I know what you mean. I had gotten to the point of not caring whether it proceeded or not. Now I am back to wanting it to proceed as soon as possible. :tup: :tup: Please build this!!!!

PS: There are some more details in this story by Roger Taylor - http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/1210028.html

I especially like this quote: "Ramia says any cost overruns during construction will be covered by Rank. So the fixed price he quoted is what the governments will pay."

[Empire]

Hey, we've got a lighthouse at Casino NB in Moncton too.

Of course, with us it's worse...........the casino is about 5 km inland from the Petitcodiac, which is in turn about 50 km upriver from Shepody Bay. :haha:

Which in turn is 276km from Halifax.

[someone123]

Message to STV:
Any town that can attract the Queen Mary II twice in the span of 3 months can certainly attract its fair share of conventions.

WAKE UP!!!!

They know that Halifax can attract conventions. Before Nova Centre they were constantly arguing how crucial tourism was as a pillar of the economy.

They don't care about consistent or correct arguments, they just don't want highrises built downtown.

[Empire]

They know that Halifax can attract conventions. Before Nova Centre they were constantly arguing how crucial tourism was as a pillar of the economy.

They don't care about consistent or correct arguments, they just don't want highrises built downtown.

Agreed, they count on people "not in the know" for their support. Their hidden agenda is always about the building height. They know that 10% of people know what they are up to and therefore don't care because they have 90% in their back pocket. They need to be called out...........

[Dartboy]

May I ask a naive question? why does the view matter?so what if the harbour is obscured for a few folks peering down for a few minutes from citadel.

May I be so bold as to suggest a CC and stadium allon the citadell hill and surrounding property,

[MonctonRad]

May I be so bold as to suggest a CC and stadium all on the citadell hill and surrounding property,

You obviously don't value your life, do you..........:haha:

[Phalanx]

I'm assuming it has something to do with the history of the Citadel. One of the exhibits at the Citadel points out the commanding view of the harbour available from the citadel, and how this was a key to its defence.

[someone123]

May I ask a naive question? why does the view matter?so what if the harbour is obscured for a few folks peering down for a few minutes from citadel.

We can debate the value of the view but it is irrelevant - there are viewplane bylaws to protect the view from the hill and the Nova Centre proposal was designed in accordance with them. There will still be views of the harbour entrance and George's Island if the development moves forward.

Save the View have tried to skirt around this issue, attempting to turn it into yet another public vs. developer debate. Empire is correct in stating that this relies on 90% of people not knowing what is going on.

[halifaxboyns]

May I ask a naive question? why does the view matter?so what if the harbour is obscured for a few folks peering down for a few minutes from citadel.

May I be so bold as to suggest a CC and stadium allon the citadell hill and surrounding property,

I don't think this is a bad question at all and I've had some exposure to the history during my brief time with the city; but also because I found it very interesting. If I miss something or I'm wrong; please someone correct me. So obviously the history of Halifax was that the citadell was a part of the defensive mechanism to the city (combined with Yorke Redoubt and George's Island and I also think McNabs island too??). So because we are one of the older cities in Canada, we have a lot of older heritage buildings.

In the late 60's and early 70's, there was a rash of projects to rejuvinate older areas of cities that were getting run down and were in need of a push - this wasn't specific to Halifax. This caused a number of older buildings to be taken down and started the heritage push; which eventually saw the citadell named a national historic site. Thus it became a tourist attraction and probably always was and became part of the tourism draw.

Then enter into the late 70's when the city started seeing some economic growth and a number of buildings were proposed (Fenwick and Maritime Centre). Now I don't know where the city stood on those (whether City Council said no and they were granted on appeal) but they eventually got built. It was these projects that caused a huge issue with the heritage groups and pushed Halifax to create the viewplanes that exist today. The main concept that was behind it was to strike a balance between the heritage groups desire to preserve the entire view (360 degrees) and the desire to build in the downtown and around the hill on all sides.

Over the years; the Halifax planning strategy got changed to have a policy put in to encourage the city to try to preserve, enhance or restore the view - why that got in I don't know why because the city isn't going to take down buildings like Maritime Centre and give up those tax dollars so the view improves.

So there is a variety of layers of planning rules related to building height around the citadell. Along Brunswick Street there is a certain set of rules, in addition to the building height maps (pre/post bonus) for HRM by Design, then the viewplanes and then finally the rampart rule. So for building height along Brunswick Street, the height of the Metro Centre is pretty much at max for what can happen along Brunswick Street in that area (with the exception of the apartment buildings above Scotia Square).

Personally; I accept the principle of why the viewplanes were created and I think they do well to achieve their goal. However, I do believe that the MPS policy to 'restore' the view is BS. It should be removed. Certainly some of the opinions of the heritage groups that 'walling' off the protected view is an issue; it creates a view tunnel (for a lack of a better way to phrase it). However, if that's an issue I'm sure staff can come up with something that could reduce the walling effect by requiring buildings over a certain height to be pushed away from the viewplane by a certain distance.

[someone123]

The Maritime Centre was post-viewplane. That is why it's built on an angle.

I think there's a tendency to put vague requirements in the MPS because they make people happy but do not cost anything up front. It is a terrible practice because it is so open to interpretation (and costs over the long term when the URB is constantly required to interpret what it means to "promote heritage" or whatever).

[halifaxboyns]

The Maritime Centre was post-viewplane. That is why it's built on an angle.

Yes; but it was proposed prior to the viewplanes, from what I've been able to find out. I may still be wrong, I've never been able to get a concrete answer.

[someone123]

Yes; but it was proposed prior to the viewplanes, from what I've been able to find out. I may still be wrong, I've never been able to get a concrete answer.

Wikipedia says the bylaw was enacted concurrently but there aren't a lot of details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Centre_(Halifax)

Apparently the Capitol came down in 1974 and the building was done in 1977 (first 14 floors). The next 7 floors went up in 1988.

[halifaxboyns]

Wikipedia says the bylaw was enacted concurrently but there aren't a lot of details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Centre_(Halifax)

Apparently the Capitol came down in 1974 and the building was done in 1977 (first 14 floors). The next 7 floors went up in 1988.

Yeah; see I saw that too and from what I've been able to find out the actual application began before the viewplanes. One of the planners who worked with HRM for a while now works out here in Alberta, I've never asked him. I should see if he knows.

[Empire]

View corridors are also protected. All streets that run east west and open to the harbour shall remain that way. Prince St. is a good example where you can see the harbour from the hill. A building would not be allowed on the waterfront that would block the harbour view even though it is not in a view
plane.

- designated viewplanes from the citadel at select points govern height of buildings
- the rampart viewplane governs height of buildings outside designated viewplanes.
- open corridors of street views of the harbour govern height of buildings on the waterfront
- building height is meant to step down close to the citadel 4-8fl. along Brunswick or Rannie Dr.
- not only is the harbour view meant to be protected when looking from the citadel but the view of the hill from the waterfront is also meant to be protected althought this a bit of a gray area

[Empire]

No longer tied to a confidentiality agreement with the province, Rank Inc. boss Joe Ramia talks about his ambitious development dream
By CHRIS LAMBIE Business Editor | EXCLUSIVE
Wed, Nov 3 - 4:53 AM / Chronicle Herald


http://thechronicleherald.ca/sites/default/files/stories/photos/11-03-10_ArgyleNight_0.jpg

http://thechronicleherald.ca/sites/default/files/stories/photos/Business_Centre_Night_Provincial_11-03-10_NAGC5AR_0.jpg

http://thechronicleherald.ca/sites/default/files/stories/photos/SLIDESHOW56copy_Provincial_11-03-10_NAGC48N.jpg

JOE RAMIA says it wasn’t his idea to lease taxpayers a convention centre proposed for downtown Halifax..........


An underground tunnel down Grafton will connect the convention centre to the Metro Centre.
Ramia is talking to a Washington-based, 4½-star hotel chain that is interested in occupying the project’s proposed 18-storey hotel.

"This is much bigger than a convention centre," Ramia said of the entire project, dubbed the Nova Centre.

It is slated to occupy two city blocks and be completed by 2015.

An underground tunnel to the Metro Centre is a huge asset.

[Empire]

Here is the type of conference that STV says doesn't happen.

Rice to attend security forum

By DAN ARSENAULT Staff Reporter
Wed, Nov 3 - 4:53 AM

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Metro/1209983.html

[Northend Guy]

Ramia is on news95.7 in an interview right now for anyone who is interested...the new guy is interviewing...not Rick Howe...:)

[fenwick16]

I caught a bit of the interview. It sounded like an even-handed interview and fortunately they weren't taking calls from wingnuts. Whether people agree with the convention centre or not, demonizing a developer for responding to a Request For Proposals is simply not right. From what I have read on the internet, Joe Ramia has done more to create jobs in Nova Scotia than most politicians.

It certainly is good to see Rank Inc. starting to promote the convention centre. I wish that they would have been permitted to start promoting it sooner.

[fenwick16]

BEWARE: The mad scientist is coming to Halifax to warn residents on how to resist the evil developers invading the city :haha: .

(source: Save the View website - http://www.savetheview.ca/ )
http://www.savetheview.ca/images/HeywoodSanders_SMU.jpg


PS: I wonder how many of his anti-convention centre presentations are held at convention centres?

[MonctonRad]

:previous:

Just looking at the list of "sponsors" on that poster sends a chill down my spine.......

The only ones missing are the Communist Party of Canada! :slob:

[kwajo]

That's the first time I've ever seen a facebook group listed as a sponsor for something. :haha:

[ScovaNotian]

It seems like they hired the right guy though. This reference (http://www.allbusiness.com/services/business-services-miscellaneous-business/4225658-1.html) indicates that "his detractors call him "Chicken Little," "Totally loony," "The Dr. No of the industry."" He seems to have been in the business of predicting the decline of the convention industry for a while.

[Dmajackson]

They might as well get rid of the question on that poster. The sponsers pretty much tell what is answer is going to be. :haha:

I really hope someone on this forum can go the meeting and hijack it like those groups do at public meetings. Just go off on a massive rant on how downtown is dieing because developers can't get into downtown.

If only the HDC were around for fights like these ... worldly and I could dominate and win any fight against these looney tunes. :P

[halifaxboyns]

No no no! Bad strategy...

Here's what I would suggest, because when I posted this question on the Halifax Herald's forum - no one seemed to answer it; or could answer it.

Go back and watch the save the view program they did (from Eastlink) - which can be seen on their website.

But focus on part 3; where they show the attendance charts. Look at them very closely and that will prove that this guy is wrong.

Fenwick's posting of that article on this guy, made a very interesting point about how his numbers can be given doubt. This is from their article:
"Sanders' critics attack his argument on a number of fronts, but their principal complaint is that he is negatively biased—that he focused on a time when convention centers were underperforming because business travel in general wasn't doing well, that he deliberately selected data to make the scenario look worse than it actually was, and that ample evidence shows that the industry has subsequently picked up again, proving that Sanders' predictions were overly gloomy."

I went back and looked at that chart and with that comment; they are right. The peaks of attendance before the fall of is just before the dot com boom burst. So in the 90's when all the dot coms tanked, down went business travel and conventions. The Canadian Graph is extremely telling of this - because there is a huge peak and then massive fall but then it bottoms out and starts to go back up again.

I'd love to attend; because my question to him would be to ask about the graphs that save the view did and ask him how he can say that there is no market, when the graphs don't show it?

The artcile fenwick posted even shows he won't accept the argument; because he only uses one source of data which that article says doesn't present a wholistic approach. I'd ask him about that - when he plans to go back and look at all data, not just one set so we can see a wholistic approach?

Don't rant about downtown being dead - it's only going to give them ammunition to counter that it's not their fault and play the victim. Him there where their position is weakest - the numbers. Create as much doubt in his numbers as you can and that's how their argument will fail.

If I sound like I'm trying to hatch a totally wicked plot; well in a way I am. :) As I like to say; I don't play the game unless I know I'm going to win. This is a fight worth winning.

[beyeas]

PS: I wonder how many of his anti-convention centre presentations are held at convention centres?

Yeah that was the 1st thing that popped into my head: I wonder if the irony is lost on him that he has travelled here to speak to an audience at a conference theater.

Now... if instead no one bothered to show up, then THAT would prove his thesis that conferences are dying! :cheers:

[fenwick16]

It seems like they hired the right guy though. This reference (http://www.allbusiness.com/services/business-services-miscellaneous-business/4225658-1.html) indicates that "his detractors call him "Chicken Little," "Totally loony," "The Dr. No of the industry."" He seems to have been in the business of predicting the decline of the convention industry for a while.

Actually it was ScovaNotian that posted the article reference. Nice find, ScovaNotion. I didn't have time to read the whole article but what I read was very informative.

[beyeas]

The other thing that thoroughly amuses me about the guy is that: HE TRAVELS TO AT LEAST ONE MAJOR CONFERENCE PER YEAR!!!

American Sociological Association annual meeting in California...
Urban Affairs Association meeting in Montreal...
American Political Science Association meeting in Washington...
(all taken directly from his CV)

Let's take that 1st conference that he chose to attend.
Here is the website for that meeting: http://www.asanet.org/meetings/2010Home.cfm
It is clearly a major conference, considering there are 600 individual sessions, along with all the stuff about while you are there enjoying the hospitality of the city etc etc.

Gee... and I thought conferences were dead? Apparently unless he is speaking at them, then they are quite important and well attended.

The problem with picking arguments with people like this is that they will always have a way of twisting thing numbers, because it is so complex. If you call them on why a certain graph doesn't demonstrate their point, they will simply haul out a different number to say that you are wrong and bury people in stats. People like this revel in the fact that complex issues can be boiled down to overly simplified stats and graphs that can make any point that someone wishes them to make.

It makes me laugh that the ad for this posits a question, as if they are hosting a balanced and rational debate on the issue, rather than a one sided sermon with no balance.

[Empire]

It seems like they hired the right guy though. This reference (http://www.allbusiness.com/services/business-services-miscellaneous-business/4225658-1.html) indicates that "his detractors call him "Chicken Little," "Totally loony," "The Dr. No of the industry."" He seems to have been in the business of predicting the decline of the convention industry for a while.

Exactly, as long as there are wingnuts willing to pay him I'm sure he would oppose anything.

If Mr. Sanders paid his own way here and was speaking in a community centre basement, then perhaps someone would believe him.

Until then, he is not the real colonel.

[Jonovision]

Opportunity knocks. Can anybody hear?


Joe Taxpayer can’t leverage half a billion dollars in investment and funnel it into downtown Halifax.

But Joe Ramia can. The question is: Can Joe Taxpayer recognize the extraordinary opportunity Joe Ramia has laid before him?

I seriously wonder. The whole notion of using public funds to piggyback on Ramia’s private piggybank, so we can all get more oomph out of the project, is lost on a lot of ordinary Joes.

Resistance to the concept, it seems, is rooted in misconcep tions. So let’s clear them up.

First, the proposed convention centre that everybody is talking about is not Ramia’s pet project.

In fact, it’s the province’s baby.

The developer is in the busi ness of building a retail/office complex and an adjacent hotel.

Throwing a shiny new conven tion centre into the mix is a gov ernment initiative.

Second, the developer is not going to pour his own money into this part of the project be cause there’d be no way for him to recoup his investment. All convention centres operate at a loss. That’s why you won’t find a privately financed one anywhere. The only profit that can be made off them is indirect — through economic spinoffs that generate tax revenues — and government is the only entity that’s in a position to collect taxes. So it stands to reason that if any dollars are sunk into a convention centre, they should be tax dollars. Governments that want to reap must sow.

Third, the jewel in the crown of this mega-project is not the underground convention centre.

It’s the financial centre that would occupy the 14-storey office tower.

Mr. Ramia’s grand vision is to have four Fortune 500 firms leasing space there, bringing 2,000 new jobs to the city. The entire complex, including the hotel, would have 7,000 people in it going about their business.

Now we’re talking permanent spinoffs. Conventions might come and go, but these workers would be creating economic activity day in, day out.

Furthermore, he says the street-friendlier version of his Nova Centre, which he unveiled Tuesday, would be a catalyst for other development projects — a green shoot for the downtown.

Alas, the vision of the Eeyores among us is far less grand. All they can see is blocked views, more gridlock and less parking on the peninsula. Do we have to go so big? Why don’t they set up shop in a business park instead?

Good grief. Wake up and smell the synergy, why don’t you?

The New York and London banker types whom Mr. Ramia is courting want to work in a hap pening place. That means activ ity, population density and rub bing shoulders downtown.

A new convention centre that is well-calibrated to the city’s needs would ensure a steady supply of happening events. But if you rip out that conveyor belt, the delicate machinery of pro gress begins to break down.

“Would I be able to attract some of the financial people that want to come here, without this?

Highly unlikely," Mr. Ramia told a small assembly of Chronicle Herald scribes on Tuesday. He insists he has a Plan B and a Plan C to develop the former Herald site. But the whole thing would be cut down to size and rolled out over a longer time frame.

Critical mass would be lost.

Not surprisingly, there are those who’d find this outcome satisfactory. Smaller is better. It’s too rich for our blood, anyway.

And even if we could afford a new convention centre, public money should be spent on public housing and public health care and stuff like that.

This line of thinking confuses wealth creation with wealth distribution. If you never seize the opportunity to do the former, you have less leeway to do the latter. It’s as simple as that.

Anyway, supposing our squab bling politicians from all three levels of government don’t suc ceed in screwing this thing up — I know, it would be shocking — and they agree to split the con vention centre pie, how do we know the rest of Mr. Ramia’s dream isn’t pie-in-the-sky?

Why should we put stock in his plan to deliver high-falutin’ finance firms to our doorstep?

Gee, I don’t know. I’d like to think the man might have done his research before putting $500 million on the line. I’m sure he’s going on more than just a hunch when he says New York firms spooked by 9-11 are seriously considering our safer shores to locate satellite offices, and that British call centres can capitalize on our convenient time zone and compatible workforce.

Maybe, just maybe, he knows the industry, and Halifax’s poten tial, better than anybody.

(llepierres@herald.ca)

[beyeas]

AWESOME article.
Now THAT is an example of a clear, well argued and articulated piece.
Exactly the sort of "come out swinging" that needs to happen to save this.

For me, one of things that has gotten me excited about this again is seeing that there are still changes being made to the design that address some of my initial concerns with the renderings, combined with attempts to make this a piece of infrastructure that the public can use (even through simple things like an outdoor rink under the galleria (which reminds me in a sense of some of the outdoor skating facilities in NYC that make use of public spaces).

[fenwick16]

Does anyone know the time for the November 9th HRM council meeting which will be discussing staff recommendations on the convention centre financing? Will it be during the day or evening? I would like to watch it on Haligonia.ca .

[Northend Guy]

I love this article. That Ramia knows his business cannot be overstated. The fact that he took a dead end mall (The Village at Bayer's Road) and turned it into one the most successful office centers in metro is nothing short of genius. He has some great tenants too. He has got HRM, Capital Health, Insurance Brokers, Real Estate offices, and a varied list of other tenants. The guy clearly knows how to cater to business. I have no doubt that he has done his homework on the convention center proposal as well.

[someone123]

The "too tall" argument is vague and arbitrary - not really worth addressing on its own.

There are two big fallacies about government spending that are partly addressed in the article. Both are disturbing:

(1) If the economy is doing badly the government must spend less. Government spending always hurts the economy, or hurts the economy if there is a deficit.

(2) If something is worth building is can be run profitably by the public sector. Conversely, if it's not worthwhile to the public, private developers won't build it.

[kph06]

I love how the image of the convention centre for the Heritage Trusts pow-wow has the Rank Inc water mark on it. That right there shoots down the credibility of the event for me. They have also expanded their Facebook group to feature protests of the Roy Building and Discovery Centre Building. This coupled with Epstien considering running for mayor and Sloane and Bousquet winning awards in the coast for their respective hobbies is enough to almost give me an aneurysm.

[DigitalNinja]

Get me out of Halifax.

[Wishblade]

Get me out of Halifax.

If Epstein became mayor, I would strongly consider it. What kind of a public would vote that guy in?

[DigitalNinja]

If Epstein became mayor, I would strongly consider it. What kind of a public would vote that guy in?

The same public that reads the Coast. IMO He probably has a good chance to get voted in.

[Dmajackson]

The same public that reads the Coast. IMO He probably has a good chance to get voted in.

Lets hope not ... Halifax would go down the drain faster than the rest of the province currently is.

If Epstein runs in 2012 I will seriously nominate myself for the sake of having a pro-development choice for all of the youth, college students, developers and anyone else who wants Halifax to suceed. :yes:

Oh BTW the council debate on the convnetion centre starts at 10am on Tuesday for those interested

[fenwick16]

Get me out of Halifax.

You should wait a while. It sounds like the HRM council would have supported the Nova Convention Centre at the last council meeting if the financial terms were better. Hopefully, these are just normal negotiations that will be worked out. If the financial terms do get worked out and the Nova Centre is built then it will be a small step forward that might lead to bigger steps forward in the future. There certainly are some great business men like Joe Ramia in Nova Scotia that can do great things if they can get past the special interest groups.

[someone123]

It's still quite likely that this project will move forward. Save the View and Tim Bousquet don't set the agenda for the provincial government and HRM council, thankfully.

Halifax can be very depressing at times. It is easily the most negative, defeatist city I have ever lived in. It is the only place I know of where there is a bizarre sort of negative exceptionalism - people believe that, no matter how good things are, they can and will always get worse and, well, the good news is all a lie anyway.

Last year the city's economy had one of the highest growth rates in North America and people talk as if it's Detroit. This could go on for 20 years and Haligonians would still think that ruin is just around the corner.

Meanwhile, a new gas station in Moncton makes it the next Calgary.

[MonctonRad]

Meanwhile, a new gas station in Moncton makes it the next Calgary.

Do you mean the new Tim Horton's/Shell that they are building at the revamped Horsman/Berry Mills intersection? It's actually going to be quite nice! :) :haha: :D

[Dartboy]

Hey I love this place I gave up a lot to move back. yeah ist a mess sometimes but if you all dont like it FTFOOH. anyway still dont like the lack of details but its here

http://halifax.ca/council/agendasc/November92010CommitteeoftheWhole.html

[halifaxboyns]

The article did well to po the anti-CC people, especially 'Bruce Devane'. I find his posts are the most negative about anything frankly and I'm so glad someone on the chronicle herald form (actually a few people) took him to task for it and the last time he was on the radio so did people there too.

[fenwick16]

There seems to be quite a few details in the following report that will be presented at the November 9 2010 meeting - http://halifax.ca/council/agendasc/documents/PPNov9.pdf .

I am surprised that they released it prior to the November 9th meeting. Nobody can say that they are hiding anything. Based on reading the report, my guess is that they will be asking for a better deal from the province:fingerscrossed: .

[beyeas]

The article did well to po the anti-CC people, especially 'Bruce Devane'. I find his posts are the most negative about anything frankly and I'm so glad someone on the chronicle herald form (actually a few people) took him to task for it and the last time he was on the radio so did people there too.

Yeah I tried to have a go at him, but really it is hard to even have a debate with people like that. He is far more interested in his personal pulpit then he is in actually debating facts.

It is interesting as well to see what the CH edits out when you post. In one of my posts I had started with (admittedly being rather catty) and suggesting that it might make his posts less annoying of he had an knowledge of grammar and spelling. They cut that. HAHA I couldn't resist using the purposeful misspelling (taken directly from his response to one of my posts) in the subject line of a later response. :haha:

[DigitalNinja]

I noticed that as well when reading his comments, there were constantly words not spelled correctly. Almost like he is typing to fast.

[halifaxboyns]

I agree with you both beyeas and DN; but they seem to have let me have a go at him a few times; not because I talked about his spelling or grammar (because mine can be pretty bad sometimes) but because I was actually debating the facts.

I can't remember whether it was the convention centre articles or something else where he made a comment and I took a couple good shots at him. He never responded; which to me indicates he's not willing to debate facts (like you suggested) but is more about being a loud mouth. He reminds me of Rick Bell out here in Calgary that writes for the Herald. Only writes to see his stuff in print. :slob:

But this Bruce guy reminds me of Sarah Palin or Glen Beck. Just wants to rail against everything and not debate the facts or merits of things. God if him or Epstein got voted in for mayor, I'd say start packing because the city would die horribly.

[CorbeauNoir]

Halifax can be very depressing at times. It is easily the most negative, defeatist city I have ever lived in. It is the only place I know of where there is a bizarre sort of negative exceptionalism - people believe that, no matter how good things are, they can and will always get worse and, well, the good news is all a lie anyway.

Last year the city's economy had one of the
highest growth rates in North America and people talk as if it's Detroit. This could go on for 20 years and Haligonians would still think that ruin is just around the corner.

Meanwhile, a new gas station in Moncton makes it the next Calgary.

Sweet jesus, this. People here complain about the quality of life here as though they're living in Liberia or Haiti. Admittedly I haven't lived in Halifax for very long, but the sheer amount of defeatist whining that's accepted as the norm in this city puts me off of Halifax far more than any of the problems or issues that are being whined about.

The funny thing is, back when I was in Calgary all the displaced Haligonians I know can't stop talking about how badly they want to go back. It's like as soon as they get a little bit of perspective of things outside of the Maritimes they realize that Halifax really isn't the god-forsaken shantytown they believed it to be.

[fenwick16]

Getting back to the Nova Centre, I am starting to understand the rationale of the 25 year lease at $10.2 million plus $2.9 million for maintenance. By the financing it with a yearly lease, the province and municipality are dissociating themselves from any financial responsibility for the Nova Centre complex. Since the debt won't be added to the municipality's or province's financial books both the HRM and province can simply walk away from it if it fails.

My gut feeling is that the Convention Centre portion will operate at a deficit for the first 10 - 15 years and will then start making a profit. My rationale is that in 15 years at 2 - 3% inflation, the $10.2 million per year will simply not be as onerous an amount as it now seems to be. In the meantime it will provide jobs and be a stimulous for the rest of the region. As has been stated by several people - can the province and municipality afford not to move forward. One question - is that lease amount locked in for the next 25 years (starting in 2015)?

The Metro Centre now operates at a profit and has been for the past 14 years. (Source: page 8/60 - http://halifax.ca/council/agendasc/documents/PPNov9.pdf ) Prior To 1996, MC Operated In A Deficit Position, But Now Operates In A Surplus Position

PS: Just to make this post less boring, this is what many of us want to move forward:

http://thechronicleherald.ca/sites/default/files/stories/photos/Business_Centre_Night_Provincial_11-03-10_NAGC5AR_0.jpg

[sdm]

Getting back to the Nova Centre, I am starting to understand the rationale of the 25 year lease at $10.2 million plus $2.9 million for maintenance. By the financing it with a yearly lease, the province and municipality are dissociating themselves from any financial responsibility for the Nova Centre complex. Since the debt won't be added to the municipality's or province's financial books both the HRM and province can simply walk away from it if it fails.

not to move forward. One question - is that lease amount locked in for the next 25 years (starting in 2015)?


Not sure if i understand how the can simply walk away? At the end of the 25 year lease i assume is what you meant.

In order to finance this project the developer will have the requires for a provincial guarantee, and the rate will likely be reset in either year 10 or year 15.

Good questions.

[fenwick16]

Based on everything that I have read, the rationale appears to be - if the entire complex failed during construction or afterward during operation (if the complex went bankrupt) then the developer has assumed the financial risk. I don't believe the HRM and province would have to pay the lease on a non-operational office/hotel/convention centre complex. In that way, the HRM and province could walk away from a non-operational Nova Centre complex. You have referred to it as a subsidy previously, I would state instead that they are guaranteeing the lease for 25 years on the convention centre portion of an operational office/hotel/convention centre complex.

In addition to the above, they can walk away at the end of 25 years or renew for two additional periods of 5 years (a total of 35 years). An example would be the Joseph Howe office building which is now considered to be obsolete (it would be costly to upgrade it to Class A office space), the HRM and province won't be stuck with an obsolete convention centre at the end of 25 - 35 years. The same logic used for deciding whether to own or lease office space is being used for the convention centre.

[someone123]

There were details in one of the reports about operating standards that the landlord would have to abide by while the lease is in effect. There are also construction requirements that must be met in order for the agreement to come into effect. I don't remember the details, but it seems like that kind of agreement would be standard for something like this.

[Empire]

Performing Arts Centre $74 million
http://www.halifax.ca/IAM/Documents/infrastructurelistevaluationexternalreport.pdf

On pg. 2 of this report that fenwick found there is $74million pegged for a Performing Arts Centre. Perhaps there is a way to combine the Performing Arts Centre with the Nova Centre?

[fenwick16]

The Ballroom in the Nova convention centre will be 35,000 square feet with about 30 foot ceilings. This might be suitable for some small concerts and performances. One drawback to combining the two facilities is that the Ballroom should serve conventions as the first priority. Would it be possible to schedule performing arts events around conventions?

The Dalhousie Masterplan mentions an addition to the Arts Centre (I believe this would be the Rebecca Cohn Auditorium) - http://campusplan.dal.ca/Files/Dalhousie%2520Framework%2520Report%25209-14-10.pdf . I wonder if it would be possible to simply renovate the Rebecca Cohn as a join project between Dalhousie University and the HRM/province? Another option is the Queen's Square project for a Performing Arts Centre. I just wonder if there would be too much capacity with the Neptune Theatre, Rebecca Cohn Auditorium, Nova Centre Ballroom plus a new performing arts centre?

[someone123]

Performing Arts Centre $74 million
http://www.halifax.ca/IAM/Documents/infrastructurelistevaluationexternalreport.pdf

Right below the $30M Mi'kmaq interpretive centre? :sly:

[cormiermax]

30 million for a Mi'kmaq Intrepretative Centre?? What the hell is wrong with people these days.

[q12]

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/7906/phpjbxgzlpm.jpg
source: CTV

[DigitalNinja]

I would like to see a naval history museum I think that would be a good thing to add to Halifax, but 74 million for an arts center, I want some of what they have been smoking.

[worldlyhaligonian]

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/7906/phpjbxgzlpm.jpg
source: CTV

Huge post, how is everybody not commenting on how much better this design is.

I like it alot... the wall of glass is wayy better than the Eaton Centre look, and I see parallels with KW type of design.

[fenwick16]

The straight lines of the hotel section makes it look more modern versus the older rendering with the curved glass in front. It seems as though the exterior is not finalized so it might still change again. Is that rendering taken from a video clip? If the video clip is on-line could some one provide a link?

[someone123]

I would like to see a naval history museum I think that would be a good thing to add to Halifax, but 74 million for an arts center, I want some of what they have been smoking.

The idea with the performing arts centre is to have a mid-sized performance venue with something like 3,000-5,000 seats. This would be larger than the Cohn or Fountain Hall in the Neptune.

As a proposal for a public facility it makes sense but the $74M figure is much higher than budgets discussed previously. Amusingly, there was a proposal called Nova Centre for a $30M or so performing arts centre that I think was to be located in the seawall area 5-7 years ago.

[halifaxboyns]

Fenwick - how did you find this infrastructure list? Certainly an interesting list. From a personal perspective; the airport stuff is interesting to me; but the performing arts centre came out of no where. Great find!

Love the fact that q12 took a screen capture from TIVO! Very nice and it looks awesome. The more and more this progresses; the more and more I'm determined to see the STV fail. I think that the move forward is getting people talking; which when this started with the previous government - was lacking. As someone rightly points out (when you compare the library); to a degree there hasn't been any debate about the tax funding. Just assumptions which left in the hands of people like mister negative (Bruce D) can be spun into 'tea party like rhetoric'.

Btw; to those who feel down about Halifax. Yes, it can be a downer sometimes. But have faith. I think the fact it hit 400,000 is slowly opening eyes around the city that it's time to start thinking bigger. You can't generate more tax dollars without spending some.

And being a displaced Haligonian in Calgary, the grass isn't greener on this side - believe me. From a development perspective; pretty much everything ends up at appeal. There is a landfill refusal being heard by our appeal board that is going onto day 4 of it's appeal hearing...it's crazy!

[fenwick16]

Fenwick - how did you find this infrastructure list? Certainly an interesting list. From a personal perspective; the airport stuff is interesting to me; but the performing arts centre came out of no where. Great find!

I was checking for information regarding the Nova Centre convention centre and it was there on HRM's http://www.halifax.ca/ . The HRM has a good website with lots of information.

[terrynorthend]

I was checking for information regarding the Nova Centre convention centre and it was there on HRM's http://www.halifax.ca/ . The HRM has a good website with lots of information.

Its an interesting list no doubt, but I wouldn't get too excited about it; its been around for awhile. It was cobbled together as a wish-list for "shovel-ready" projects when the Federal Infrastructure Stimulus Program was announced. It was then pared down to the projects that HRM finally submitted for funding. I don't think any of the fun projects were selected, and that particular program is done now.

[beyeas]

The idea with the performing arts centre is to have a mid-sized performance venue with something like 3,000-5,000 seats. This would be larger than the Cohn or Fountain Hall in the Neptune.


Yeah someone on here earlier had made the comment that maybe a new centre would overlap too much with other venues, but the Cohn, Neptune, and any potential performing arts centre serves very different needs/purposes.

Neptune is a small small theatre that is suited only to plays and small musicals, and the Cohn although having a somewhat larger hall has a stage that is only really suited to smaller musical performances (the backstage area is useless). Any new centre would only be taking "business" away from the MC, which hosts some of these bigger productions. I personally don't waste my money because the MC is just a horrible horrible venue for that sort of show.

I don't expect we will see a performing arts centre for a long long time, even though there is a need for it, and even though I would absolutely support one I would personally prioritize it lower than the need for a stadium (as I think there is even more of an unmet need for the stadium). In the future though I would love to see (and I think we will see eventually) a 3000 seat performing arts centre.

[halifaxboyns]

What a surprise...I was waiting for this:

Convention centre bad deal

By PHIL PACEY
Sat, Nov 6 - 4:54 AM
Municipal tax revenues from the proposed Halifax convention centre, hotel and office complex would not come close to covering the municipal costs.

Gardner Pinfold Consulting Economists Ltd. (GP) calculated HRM property tax revenues from the project. The results are on page 27 of their December 2009 report on the Trade Centre Limited website.

To estimate tax revenues, GP compared the proposal to other office and hotel buildings in Halifax. For example, the proposed 18-storey hotel tower above the convention centre on Argyle Street was compared to the Prince George Hotel and was estimated to be twice the size. "This suggests the hotel portion could generate HRM in the order of $1.2 million in tax revenue."

GP compared the proposed 14-storey office tower above the convention centre on Market Street to the Maritime Centre. My careful measurements of the drawings indicate the proposal would have 41 per cent of the floor area of Maritime Centre. Therefore, the proposed office building would yield annual tax revenue to the municipality of $0.72 million.

The province has said the convention centre portion of the development would not pay property taxes.

The total annual tax revenue to the municipality would only be about $2 million.

GP also noted that HRM would incur additional expenses due to the demand for incremental services. On average, the cost of providing municipal services to properties roughly equals the tax revenues from the properties.

If governments do not fund a convention centre on this site, the two towers would not be permitted, and the developer would have to follow the HRMbyDesign height provisions that apply to blocks in the vicinity. The developer has said he has alternative plans B and C. Buildings of these lower heights would pay municipal taxes and incur municipal costs.

The municipal costs for the convention centre would greatly exceed the municipal taxes. The municipality would pay half the $10.2-million annual capital cost, half the annual $2.9-million maintenance and upgrade payments to the developer, and half of the unknown projected operating loss. The annual municipal costs for the convention centre alone would be about $7 million.

There is no way that annual municipal tax revenues of $2 million can cover the annual costs of about $9 million, including $7 million for the convention centre plus about $2 million for municipal services to the overall development. No amount of tweaking, tinkering or negotiating will change this fundamental fact.

The proposed convention centre is simply a bad deal for municipal taxpayers. We taxpayers have better things to do with our money.

Phil Pacey, of Halifax, is a member of the Save the View Coalition.

[halifaxboyns]

And now one in favour:
Stop bashing convention centre

By GARRY CRAIG
Sat, Nov 6 - 4:54 AM
We have to come to grips with whether we want a new convention centre or not. Initially, the opposition was to the towers; then opponents realized the centre could be the Achilles heel of the towers. The height of the towers was dependent on the centre being part of the project.

The business case has been made about the potential spinoffs. The opposition says we will end up with an underutilized white elephant; people won’t come. Well, that’s a certainty if we don’t build it. They continue to quote "experts" who give us American statistics. Attendance has declined from 2008 to 2010, with only a modest recovery in 2010. No surprise, given the state of the economy.

Some will say I’m biased because I’m in the industry. Well, I rely on facts to arrive at my support. Meeting Professionals International (MPI) Foundation Canada had commissioned an in-depth study for the industry for 2006-2008 with an update in 2009. The study was undertaken by Maritz Research Canada and the Conference Board of Canada and followed the methodology guidelines established by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

The research determined that the meeting industry contributed $11 billion to GDP (add indirect industries and it was $71 billion), provided direct employment for 235,000 people and when the indirect employment was added in, 570,000 jobs.

The meetings sector, when averaged over the three years studied, contributed $14 billion in taxes ($1 billion municipal, $6 billion provincial and $7 billion federal). In 2008, there were 66 million attendees in meetings in Canada with 29.8 million in "purpose-built venues," 30.2 million in hotels/resorts and the balance in various other venues.

Delegates for all types of meetings in Canada spent $23.8 billion in 2008. The average spent by delegates was $360 and exhibitors $765. In their words, "it can be safely projected that ONE major meeting at a purpose-built venue will ‘deliver’ as a leading economic driver within a region."

Their conclusion: "There can be no question about the Canadian facts supporting the positive economic impact of purpose-built venues. These venues are proven to host the largest meetings attended by the highest ‘average spend’ per delegate. Purpose-built venues can only be seen as advantageous to all economic variables within any given region of Canada."

So stop bashing the centre; come clean and say the towers are the issue. We should be looking five years forward and not trying to freeze-frame today. If we’re not prepared to be forward-thinking, we could become that "backwater," as has been suggested!

MPI is sponsoring an information meeting on Monday, Nov. 8, at 1 p.m. at the Cunard Centre. Joe Ramia will be there to present his vision for Halifax and the evolving plans for the centre, and to hear from people. This is an opportunity to be informed. Uninformed opinions just muddy the waters.

Garry Craig is VP finance, MPI, Atlantic Canada chapter.

[fenwick16]

And now one in favour:
Stop bashing convention centre

By GARRY CRAIG
Sat, Nov 6 - 4:54 AM
.
.
.
MPI is sponsoring an information meeting on Monday, Nov. 8, at 1 p.m. at the Cunard Centre. Joe Ramia will be there to present his vision for Halifax and the evolving plans for the centre, and to hear from people. This is an opportunity to be informed. Uninformed opinions just muddy the waters.

Garry Craig is VP finance, MPI, Atlantic Canada chapter.

Will anyone be attending this? If I were in Halifax then I would want to attend.

[someone123]

On average, the cost of providing municipal services to properties roughly equals the tax revenues from the properties.

Sloppy, misleading article, but no surprise.

[planarchy]

Originally Posted by Phil Pacey
On average, the cost of providing municipal services to properties roughly equals the tax revenues from the properties.

Yeah - this is definitely misleading. Residential development in particular rarely covers the servicing costs.

[fenwick16]

Yeah - this is definitely misleading. Residential development in particular rarely covers the servicing costs.

Suburban residential construction would be more of a drain than urban development costs. But I don't see the connection. I assume that you are going along with Phil Pacey's arguments?

[someone123]

Suburban residential construction would be more of a drain than urban development costs. But I don't see the connection. I assume that you are going along with Phil Pacey's arguments?

The office tower is commercial. Generally in the HRM these developments subsidize the residential properties. This is why it's misleading for Pacey to mention the "average" expense. Pacey either does not know this and is therefore not very knowledgeable about these issues (despite the fact that he chooses to comment on them) or is intentionally being dishonest.

I don't think planarchy is agreeing with Pacey. He brought up a point that brings into question the value of Pacey's statement.

[planarchy]

Suburban residential construction would be more of a drain than urban development costs. But I don't see the connection. I assume that you are going along with Phil Pacey's arguments?

See Someone's comments above. I'm not agreeing with Pacey. Nice work making assumptions.

[q12]

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/7906/phpjbxgzlpm.jpg
source: CTV

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/4459/phpg33rghpm.jpg
source: CTV

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/3658/php9ytusypm.jpg
source: CTV

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/6417/phpb4l4qfpm.jpg
source: CTV

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/9479/php9iidbhpm.jpg
source: CTV

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5263/php9eqx3cpm.jpg
source: CTV

Here are some more images I captured off the CTV Atlantic Evening News at 6. (Bell Aliant TV PVR)

[someone123]

Updated rendering from http://www.novacentre.ca

http://novacentre.ca/rankinc/image3.jpg

Apparently they also plant to construct some kind of 40 storey building on top of Scotia Square. ;)

[cormiermax]

:worship: My jaw dropped when I saw that one, this doesn't get built I'm leaving Halifax.

[q12]

Updated rendering from http://www.novacentre.ca

http://novacentre.ca/rankinc/image3.jpg

Apparently they also plant to construct some kind of 40 storey building on top of Scotia Square. ;)

Wow that rendering is nice!:)

Can we get the photo at the top of this page updated with this one?

[Keith P.]

Kee-rist, that looks incredible. Of course, that perspective would require Neptune Theatre to be demolished to see it that way, but still... ;-)

Only bad thing I see is the loading entrance looks to be on Argyle at the corner. Not the best use of a potentially great corner.

[Dmajackson]

Very nice. :D

Can we also get the tower reflected in the glass and the Scotia Square make-over?

One thing that's nice about this rendering is the vehicles are realistic. Most renderings have ferrari's and porsches out front and not normal cars that peopel in Halifax can afford.

[planarchy]

Kee-rist, that looks incredible. Of course, that perspective would require Neptune Theatre to be demolished to see it that way, but still... ;-)

Only bad thing I see is the loading entrance looks to be on Argyle at the corner. Not the best use of a potentially great corner.

Soooo....this looks 1000000x better. Especially the treatment of the internal street (market street?). This looks great.

But as Keith P. said - the Argyle Street front is not good. Not only is a loading bay/parking entrance there, but the entrance area seems really bizarre. Would be nice to see some of the qualities of the internal street along argyle as well. Right now, the building is too inward looking. A step in the right direction, but still a bit awkward looking as far as its relation to its neighbours, especially along Argyle.

[Phalanx]

So very much better, yes. Lets get this built already. O.o

[fenwick16]

The floor plans indicate that the truck loading would be off Market Street. I think that view is showing the car entrance to the underground parking and the hotel and convention centre lobby from Argyle Street. In the floor plans 17,800 square feet of internal truck loading is shown off Market Street which is at the very top level of the convention centre - page 11/36 - https://conventioncentreinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/WTCC-II-Bid-Summary.pdf .

Another interesting fact is that on page 8/36 there is an entrance from the parkade ramp to the Multi-function Hall. I assume for car exhibits.

[Empire]

The hotel from 4 floors up still needs work, it has too much of a slab look. The office building looks a lot like Summit place. Argyle needs more of a presence/grand entrance.

[fenwick16]

Soooo....this looks 1000000x better. Especially the treatment of the internal street (market street?). This looks great.


I think that you mean Grafton Street which is the middle pedway over the Ballroom. Market Street is closest to the Citadel.

[PoscStudent]

Big improvement over the original design, lets see if the feds will actually give you any money to build it now.

[Jonovision]

I did not attend the session this afternoon but did attend on he held last Friday. His new designs look much better and they show an evolution in the design. Joe did say that he kept hearing people say they wanted a more modern and bold design so that is what he is leaning towards now. However, there will still be lots of room for public input on the design of the exterior of the buildings once funding is in place. Even if they start in January they have a minimum of 8 months of digging before any concrete is poured.

[fenwick16]

Updated rendering from http://www.novacentre.ca

http://novacentre.ca/rankinc/image3.jpg

Apparently they also plant to construct some kind of 40 storey building on top of Scotia Square. ;)

I just noticed that in the lower right hand corner. That would be the 40 storey observation tower that I keep hoping for, which would do away with the need of view-planes from the Citadel Hill.

I really like what they are doing with the arches over Grafton Street.

[halifaxboyns]

In the immortal acting style of William Shatner, all I could say with the new design was:

Holy...shit! It's (long pause) and incredible (arm jestures) redo! It's so impressive...KAHHHNNN!!

Sorry...:) Couldn't help it.

But still, pretty damn impressive. We must work to get this built. Full stop. :)

[Dartboy]

Right now I am ignoring the one report from the trust folks who had an expert speaking about how the CC is a bad idea. I am sure if you paid the same amount of money you could fly in another expert with a completely opposite opinion.

Anyway Ramia is being reported now as saying the land could sit vacant if He doesnt get his way. secondly he is also saying that Plans B and C without the convention center would obviously be much smaller but would make more money and that the current proposal makes the least amount of money.

Frankly I am calling hogwash on that. I dont like the way he has started to change his angle in the media. When he first came out he was playing it smart. Now he is not.

[fenwick16]

Anyway Ramia is being reported now as saying the land could sit vacant if He doesnt get his way. secondly he is also saying that Plans B and C without the convention center would obviously be much smaller but would make more money and that the current proposal makes the least amount of money.

Frankly I am calling hogwash on that. I dont like the way he has started to change his angle in the media. When he first came out he was playing it smart. Now he is not.

I read the allnovascotia.com story and it could simply be that the author of the story was making it sound more dramatic by calling it a warning. In any case, we have all seen this happen many times over the past several years - lots sit vacant for years. He has stated that he expects the convention centre to help him sell the hotel and office portions of the complex which sounds reasonable. If the convention centre doesn't proceed then plans B or C will be built at a rate that many projects are built in the Halifax area and currently worldwide - slowly. I think he is simply being honest and open with the public.

[beyeas]

Kee-rist, that looks incredible. Of course, that perspective would require Neptune Theatre to be demolished to see it that way, but still... ;-)

Only bad thing I see is the loading entrance looks to be on Argyle at the corner. Not the best use of a potentially great corner.

Yeah that was the one negative that jumped out at me. I was amazed by how much better the development as a whole looks, and although I know that there does have to be at least one part of the building that is just big loading bays, I wish it didn't have to be on such a prominent corner!! The rest is a HUGE improvement though.

[Haliguy]

Right now I am ignoring the one report from the trust folks who had an expert speaking about how the CC is a bad idea. I am sure if you paid the same amount of money you could fly in another expert with a completely opposite opinion.

Anyway Ramia is being reported now as saying the land could sit vacant if He doesnt get his way. secondly he is also saying that Plans B and C without the convention center would obviously be much smaller but would make more money and that the current proposal makes the least amount of money.

Frankly I am calling hogwash on that. I dont like the way he has started to change his angle in the media. When he first came out he was playing it smart. Now he is not.

I think he is only speaking the truth. It is a good possiblity it could sit there like that for years.