Rapid Transit

[mpd618]

KW landed some big money for LRT...

LRT money seems to be landing in KW despite the council backpeddling on its commitment.

For some context on KW - it landed "big money" that was less than the 2/3 funding Waterloo Region was hoping for from the province. Regional Council made a firm decision in 2009 in favour of phased LRT as the approach, and strongly pursued funding. (The first Regional attempts to get funding for an LRT date back to 2002.) There were some revisions made after the funding announcements and the 2010 election, but fundamentally the project and its support were unchanged.

Waterloo Region did not get full capital funding from the upper levels, and pressed on using property taxes to make up the difference - because the project is a crucial component of most of Waterloo Region's land-use and transportation plans.

[HillStreetBlues]

Sam Merulla dose more than enough rattling of chains on behalf of the , and it has got us nowhere thus far.

Hazel is a straight forward, calculating, mayor who achieves things quietly without rattling chains. She also is a pragmatist who knows what she can and cannot gain. LRT money seems to be landing in KW despite the council backpeddling on its commitment. Ottawa had its LRT funding withdrawn by the feds and the plan sent back to the drawing board, so I don't see how their council has 'got' anything of significance lately. At any rate, the municipal voices truly have little or no clout within the legislative bodies at Queens Park or in Ottawa.

If people in this city genuinely feel its interests are not being fairly represented at Queens Park or in Ottawa, lay blame squarely where it belongs: on the people they have chosen to represent them in those legislatures. We have an opportunity to replace our ineffective MPP's this month, and our MP's next year. Hamilton has consistently shut itself out of the Federal and Provincial halls of power for nearly two decades now. Perhaps it is time we send representatives to those houses who will deliver for the city.

I agree with you here. Kitchener-Centre went very narrowly Liberal in the last election; in Kitchener-Waterloo, we punished the former Tory MPP who took a patronage position, and gave the riding to the NDP instead. Likewise, in London West the voters switched from Liberal to NDP in a byelection, and London North-Centre is also in play. This could be seen as fickle or disloyal, but it’s a case of voters who are willing to reward or punish when they see a representative or party who is doing well- or not- for them. That creates incentives for the government that do not exist in a region where one party (the third party, no less) is guaranteed most of the seats.

“LRT money seems to be landing in KW despite the council backpeddling on its commitment.”

What do you mean by this? What backpeddling has happened? Construction of the Ion has already begun. One-third of the funds will come from Regional taxes.

[thistleclub]

Hazel is currently in a presser with Kathleen Wynne on CP24. "As a leader, I'm endorsing her."

[thistleclub]

Glen Murray continues to test the limits of noncommittal posturing (https://twitter.com/BobManojlovich/status/465863267924324352).

[ScreamingViking]

Sam Merulla dose more than enough rattling of chains on behalf of the , and it has got us nowhere thus far.

Hazel is a straight forward, calculating, mayor who achieves things quietly without rattling chains. She also is a pragmatist who knows what she can and cannot gain. LRT money seems to be landing in KW despite the council backpeddling on its commitment. Ottawa had its LRT funding withdrawn by the feds and the plan sent back to the drawing board, so I don't see how their council has 'got' anything of significance lately. At any rate, the municipal voices truly have little or no clout within the legislative bodies at Queens Park or in Ottawa.

If people in this city genuinely feel its interests are not being fairly represented at Queens Park or in Ottawa, lay blame squarely where it belongs: on the people they have chosen to represent them in those legislatures. We have an opportunity to replace our ineffective MPP's this month, and our MP's next year. Hamilton has consistently shut itself out of the Federal and Provincial halls of power for nearly two decades now. Perhaps it is time we send representatives to those houses who will deliver for the city.

Senior-level politicians respect Hazel, or at least pay attention when she's got a chain to rattle. I think Ottawa's Watson's messages are heard by receptive ears too.

I completely understand that municipal politicians are not so important beyond the borders of their municipalities, but some are better at working with local MPPs/MPs than others, and also better at getting their message across to cabinet. In my opinion, we've lacked that under the current administration. That the province seems to get mixed messages from Hamilton is very unfortunate, even if it plays into their own gamesmanship.

I agree with you that we've lacked effective representation at the provincial and national levels. Those are axes that I should have ground too. ;)

[Innsertnamehere]

Hazel is currently in a presser with the Premier on CP24. "As a leader, I'm endorsing her."

Just a note, but she is no longer Premier, simply the Liberal Candidate.

[mpd618]

Just a note, but she is no longer Premier, simply the Liberal Candidate.

Possibly poor style (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/community/inside-the-globe/public-editor-more-on-political-titles-during-election-campaigns/article18563947/) to refer to her that way, but she is still Premier. (See that link regarding both aspects.)

[ScreamingViking]

For some context on KW - it landed "big money" that was less than the 2/3 funding Waterloo Region was hoping for from the province. Regional Council made a firm decision in 2009 in favour of phased LRT as the approach, and strongly pursued funding. (The first Regional attempts to get funding for an LRT date back to 2002.) There were some revisions made after the funding announcements and the 2010 election, but fundamentally the project and its support were unchanged.

Waterloo Region did not get full capital funding from the upper levels, and pressed on using property taxes to make up the difference - because the project is a crucial component of most of Waterloo Region's land-use and transportation plans.

Thanks for clarifying. Waterloo Region has definitely taken a bold step forward with this and I think it will be a game-changer. From what's been noted on the Canada forum it looks like things are already happening along the corridor.

[flar]

Hazel and Watson are professional politicians, they know the levers and how to use them.

The bunch in Hamilton are amateurs, a bunch of parochial ward councillors worried about potholes and scary six story buildings going up in their neighbourhood.

[mattgrande]

I'm certainly not surprised he would scrap the LRTs, but I'm surprised to hear him talking about merging the transit systems:


Tim Hudak would scrap planned LRTs for TTC, Mississauga, Brampton, Hamilton

Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak says a Tory government would cancel planned LRT expansion focusing instead on more frequent GO service and expanding highway capacity.

A Progressive Conservative government would derail planned LRT expansion along Finch and Sheppard Aves. and in Mississauga, Brampton and Hamilton, says Tim Hudak.
The Tory leader, who has signalled his opposition to the light-rail transit lines since 2012, said Friday such projects are not a priority.
“Finch, Sheppard, Mississauga, Brampton,” Hudak said when asked which LRTs he would kill.
“Instead of ripping up the roads and making your traffic worse, we’ll build on the real strengths of the system,” he told reporters at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre against the backdrop of GO Trains at Union Station.
“That’s why we’ll do more frequent GO service and we’ll expand our highway capacity as well, the 400, the 410, the 403.”
Noting gridlock in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area is costing the Ontario economy $6 billion — and 25,000 jobs — a year, Hudak pledged to “take urgent, decisive action to fix this GTA traffic problem.”
“Our priority is to get you home faster. We will put scarce resources into GO service, roads and subways, instead of permanently closing lanes to put an LRT on a politician’s resume.”

If the Tories win the June 12 election, they would merge the Toronto Transit Commission, GO Transit and other services into one regional transportation authority.


source (http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election/2014/05/16/tim_hudak_would_scrap_planned_lrts_for_ttc_mississauga_brampton_hamilton.html)

There's more in the full article.

[HillStreetBlues]

I'm certainly not surprised he would scrap the LRTs, but I'm surprised to hear him talking about merging the transit systems:



The Tories have said that they’ll upload rail service in Toronto to the province, which would be huge for the municipality: TTC is a big component of Toronto’s budget.

One truly integrated regional transit authority would be a great thing for the GTA.

[MalcolmTucker]

Rail service helps pay for bus service though. And you'll get crazy fare integration problems. Though it would be helpful to have the city not change its plans every year.

[SteelTown]

There have been discussions about building a bus rapid transit system in Hamilton as alternative to LRT. Are you saying that a PC government wouldn’t fund either plan?

I just believe we need to focus on what works in our system and what people want to use. That’s why I am going to expand GO service into Hamilton, improve its quality, expand rush hour service and two-service. Look, if you want the LRT and you want to rip up the roads in Hamilton and slow everybody down, vote for Andrea Horwath and the NDP or vote for the Liberals. But if you want a leader and a team who will help with your commute in the [Greater Toronto Area] and Hamilton, then look at my plan.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/q-a-tim-hudak-talks-lrt-mid-pen-highway-school-closures-1.2645312

[Jon Dalton]

Although I'm glad Hudak has a soft spot for GO Transit, it makes no sense to come down hard on every other transit project. People will teleport to the GO stations? Parking is full at most GO stations, building more means expensive structures and inevitable parking fees. Expanding the GO network requires improved local transit.

[SteelTown]

Andrew Dreschel
Well, that's different: If elected premier,Tim Hudak says he won't fund LRT or BRT for #Hamont. My Wed.@TheSpec column.

[CaptainKirk]

Andrew Dreschel
Well, that's different: If elected premier,Tim Hudak says he won't fund LRT or BRT for #Hamont. My Wed.@TheSpec column.

That's right. Hudak would have Hamilton help fund Toronto subways.

Nothing for Hamilton, except more unemployed as he devastates 100,000 families, adding to the ranks of the unemployed.

What is this guy thinking? :koko:

[thistleclub]

Andrew Dreschel
Well, that's different: If elected premier,Tim Hudak says he won't fund LRT or BRT for #Hamont. My Wed.@TheSpec column.

Realistically, ADFW is the only Hamilton riding the PCs have a shot at turning blue, and not a lot of that is in the W. (Would it have been better if he ended the vexing A-Line vs B-Line debate by arguing that we should start with the L-line?) Without the forced niceties of GTHA revenue tools -- which he has rejected as unnecessary -- it comes down to a matter of bang-for-buck business case using a finite amount of budgetary resources for capital investment. The Liberals and NDP have different electoral math.

FWIW, a Liberal-governed Metrolinx, as framed by the budget-that-wasn’t ( http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2014/ch1b.html#s1-26
), will “prioritize transit investments through the use of rigorous business-case analyses. These analyses will help prioritize Next Wave projects that could be accommodated within the Province’s dedicated fund for the GTHA and provide the best value for Ontarians.” Hamilton could be getting belated BRT service, unless the funds are needed for a white elephant serving cabinet ridings ( http://news.ontario.ca/mto/en/2014/04/province-moving-forward-with-high-speed-rail-plans.html) (and, fancy that, the GTHA).

Those 2007 election promises are as valuable as pogs at this point.

[thistleclub]

Here’s another potential wrinkle. The Ontario NDP now holds 21 seats, four of which were added since October 2011. If the party is pushed below 17 seats come June 12, Horwath’s next leadership review will be dire, possibly ending her political career. That could put Hamilton Centre in play and weaken adjacent orange holdings. In the last 20 years, the now-defunct Hamilton West (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_West_(electoral_district)) riding was variously held at the provincial level by the Liberals, NDP and PCs. The same is true of the Hamilton Mountain ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Mountain_(provincial_electoral_district)) riding. B-Line, A-Line. Quid pro quo.

[thistleclub]

Hudak won’t fund LRT or BRT ( http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4530156-dreschel-hudak-won-t-fund-lrt-or-brt)
(Hamilton Spectator, Andrew Dreschel, May 21)

Say what you will about Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, at least there is no doubt about where he stands on LRT funding for Hamilton.

There won't be any.

The same goes for BRT, the cheaper bus rapid transit system still favoured by some.

Hudak says a Tory government won't fund either transit option if he's elected premier June 12.

The MPP for Niagara West-Glanbrook told The Spectator he'll happily talk to municipalities about their local transit needs down the road, but his immediate focus will be combating gridlock, which costs the GTHA an estimated $6 billion a year in lost productivity.

That means a Hudak government's priorities will be to invest in more two-way GO services and improving and building new highways, including one connecting Niagara and Hamilton….

Like it or not, that's a bold stance to take in a community where LRT is often portrayed as ticket to future economic prosperity. Hudak doesn't shy away from stepping on those sacrosanct toes....

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath supports 100 per cent capital funding for the proposed $811-million light transit line from McMaster to Eastgate, though she has yet to detail how she proposes to pay for it.

Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne also promises full capital funding though it's not exactly clear what she means by that. For example, will there be a direct tax impact on Hamilton residents or not?

As we know, city council's position remains 100 per cent funding with no strings attached.

Read it in full here ( http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4530156-dreschel-hudak-won-t-fund-lrt-or-brt).

[SteelTown]

"his immediate focus will be combating gridlock" but forget about public transit as part of the formula to combat gridlock.

[coalminecanary]

Hudak will "fight gridlock" by putting a highway through all of his buddies' properties between along the mid pen corridor, at a lifecycle cost to taxpayers that could fund LRT in every city in the province.

[drpgq]

I'd be more concerned about Hudak, except that the Liberals have seemed to like promising LRT funding over the years without delivering and perhaps worse purposely not providing clarity to keep the carrot alive.

I do wonder if things had been different if someone other than Bratina had been elected mayor with regards to LRT. Eisenberger I would assume would have made it a priority but I wonder if his generally weak relationship with council would actually have set back LRT. Di Ianni if he decided to support LRT, his Liberal ties and his way better council wrangling abilities may have had us further along on LRT at this point.

[MalcolmTucker]

Until the city decides what it wants, it is hard to deliver anything. Look at the real progress in KWC, Ottawa, and on Eglinton.

[thistleclub]

Ottawa: 42.9% buy-in. $2.1-billion LRT with $1.2 billion contributed by senior government ( http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ottawa-plans-2-billion-light-rail-project/article586048/)
Waterloo: 30.9% buy-in. $818 million LRT with $565 million contributed by senior government (http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4335876-rapid-transit-shaping-up-to-be-election-issue-in-waterloo-region/)

We may have some bootstrapping to do.

[mattgrande]

Okay, so about the Mid-Pen highway (and I probably should talk about this elsewhere), but I've never had a problem getting to Buffalo (which, I believe, the mid-pen will go). Who is this highway for? I don't feel like we have much congestion on that section of the QEW, or Hwy 20, but I'll admit I'm not out that way much anymore.

[Beedok]

Thorold and Welland maybe?

[mpd618]

Who is this highway for? I don't feel like we have much congestion on that section of the QEW, or Hwy 20, but I'll admit I'm not out that way much anymore.

Pardon me for stating the obvious, but... land speculators? Sprawl? Lots of easy money to be made there.

[Jon Dalton]

There's more use for the other end of the mid-pen highway that would go through Burlington to the GTA. Problem is they are smart enough not to want it. They realize the damage caused by sprawl but Hamilton just says 'give me more.' Highways create their own demand so there is no need to justify it. A highway through farm land will soon enough be surrounded by subdivisions and industrial parks and full of traffic. Then they'll say we need another one. Etc.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

It's a highway that would better facilitate business leaving the region for points south. And, yes, it would open up thousands of hectares of farmland for residential development. Super.

The Mid-Pen is such a boring topic. I can't believe we're still discussing it > shows just how pathetic we are.

[mpd618]

The Mid-Pen is such a boring topic. I can't believe we're still discussing it > shows just how pathetic we are.

You mean Hudak? Because it's his plan to build nothing new except one subway and lots of highways - the Mid-Pen included.

[bigguy1231]

Until the city decides what it wants, it is hard to deliver anything. Look at the real progress in KWC, Ottawa, and on Eglinton.

The city is already on record as supporting LRT and have been for a couple of years. But that is only if the province funds it 100%.

[MalcolmTucker]

Has the city initiated/finished its environmental approvals? My memory is hazy whether the last document I read was for the BRT proposal or not.

[SteelTown]

Yeah the EA has been completed.

http://www.hamiltonrapidtransit.ca/index.php/project-information/funding-proposal/

[thistleclub]

FWIW, Hamilton LRT gets the thumbs-up from Ancaster resident and Hamilton Centre Liberal candidate Donna Tiqui-Shebib (https://twitter.com/electdonna4mpp/status/469589223448653825):

@MLHPigott @RyanMcGreal I personally support LRT. If the city remains on board with plans, we will fund 100% of base costs for #HamOnt LRT.

"Personally" seems loaded, however. Doubly so when "Tweets from Donna marked DTS (https://twitter.com/electdonna4mpp)."

[Jon Dalton]

That's good. I was wondering if the Hamilton Centre candidate would back LRT or go rogue like the other two Hamilton Liberal MPP's.

[thistleclub]

That's good. I was wondering if the Hamilton Centre candidate would back LRT or go rogue like the other two Hamilton Liberal MPP's.

Seven years along, it would be better if an unambiguous commitment came in a press release from the Minister of Transportation/Liberal Candidate for Toronto-Centre or, ideally, the Premier/Candidate for Don Valley West (failing that, an unambiguous commitment in person or, failing that, an unambiguous commitment via their social media accounts).

Tiqui-Shebib is a candidate, not an incumbent. More specifically, she is a candidate who turned in an abysmal performance in the last election, shedding 5,100+ votes and losing almost 40% of Liberal vote share compared to her predecessor in the previous election. (Moreover, this tweet isn't initialed DTS, suggesting that it's a campaign staffer's stance.)

But if Tiqui-Shebib can quadruple her 2011 showing, she can knock off Horwath, and the OLP would probably bankroll Hamilton LRT on the spot.

[Jon Dalton]

I wasn't suggesting that it means anything, other than a clean conscience if I do happen to vote for her. I'm also wondering if the NDP kool-aid is starting to wear off for a lot of central Hamilton voters. We keep electing them and get nothing in return but the greater chance of a PC government.

[thistleclub]

LRT and lessons to be learned from Hamilton's first flirtation with urban trains (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/lrt-and-lessons-to-be-learned-from-hamilton-s-first-flirtation-with-urban-trains-1.2652259)
(CBC Hamilton, Cory Ruf, May 27 2014)

A rapid transit plan hailed as a potential shot in the arm for the city, a provincial government promising to cover the lion’s share of the capital costs, an ambivalent mayor, and a council divided on the merits of the project.

It’s a made-in-Hamilton story decades older than the city’s current debate over LRT — and one that’s rife with teachable moments for local planners and politicians in the present day.

On the night of Dec. 15, 1981, Hamilton-Wentworth Regional Council rejected a proposal to build a $111-million elevated train line from Jackson Square in the city’s core to Lime Ridge Mall, the hub for what was then the southern fringe of the Mountain’s blooming suburbs.

The voted foiled the Progressive Conservative government’s plan to use Hamilton as a staging ground for the new Intermediate Capacity Transit System (ICTS), a technology the province's Urban Transportation Development Corporation had developed during the 1970s.

The option this time is east-west, the technology proven, the option at ground level. So different in the details, so similar in some of the important questions. Now, 33 years later, those involved—​ for and against— still believe in the positions they held back then. Right or wrong, the decision begs the questions: How might Hamilton have been different if it had taken that step and what can be learned from how it unfolded?

For Lorna Kippen, the decision against the project represented a huge victory and the culmination of months of circulating petitions, holding meetings, ringing up councillors and writing newspaper op-eds. A Mountain resident since the early ‘60s, she chaired the Coalition on Sane Transit (COST), which was formed to scuttle the elevated rail plan.

“It would have destroyed whatever neighbourhood it went through,” Kippen told CBC Hamilton earlier in May. “In retrospect, the action we took and the results that we achieved… it’s definitely borne out that it was the best thing that could have happened at the time.”

Much of the group’s opposition to the ICTS system stemmed from the particulars of the proposal.

“One of our main objections was that it was an elevated system,” said Kippen. “And there were no other options being explored except for the elevated system.”

According to a December 1981 column in the Toronto Star, the tracks would have run along a 5.5-metre-high platform, itself held up by a concrete pillar every 30 metres.

“The system was totally inaccessible to disabled people and people with children in strollers,” said Kippen.

Mountain residents who lived on the route expressed concerns that riders would be able to peer into second-storey windows of nearby homes. Others charged the elevated waiting areas would be too hidden from the street and thus would attract urban scourges like drug dealing and offensive graffiti.

The cost and ridership projections were also sore spots for ICTS opponents. Staff with the Hamilton-Wentworth region said the Mountain-downtown corridor wouldn’t need rapid transit until the 1990s and later conceded that enhanced transit along the route wouldn’t been required until beyond 2001.

Unconvinced the ICTS technology was suitable for Hamilton — and that the operating costs wouldn't soar above the estimated $2 million per year (roughly $5.2 million in 2014 dollars) — many local politicians expressed their own reservations months before regional council voted to axe the plan.


Read it in full here (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/lrt-and-lessons-to-be-learned-from-hamilton-s-first-flirtation-with-urban-trains-1.2652259).

[Dr Awesomesauce]

I have the sinking feeling I'll be reading a retrospective on LRT in Hamilton in 35 years. :slob:

[bigguy1231]

This is the same technology as the Skytrain in Vancouver. I don't remember Limeridge mall being the terminus. As far as I can remember it was supposed to go up Upper James to somewhere near the airport.

[matt602]

Also the same technology as the Scarborough RT and I think we know how that one went. Dodged a bullet there.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

This technology has worked quite well in Vancouver but then Vancouver's been run by some very competent people over the past 40+ years. I think we all know how it would have turned out in Hamilton. However, the status quo hasn't been too hot either, so...

[ScreamingViking]

I was pretty young when this debate was going on, but I remember some of it. I seem to recall noise and the intrusiveness of the structures being a big issue for a lot of people, aside from the issues mentioned in the story. I have to wonder if having other design options up for discussion could have helped (e.g., surface tracks, though I'd imagine a loss of street lanes would have been a huge issue for people back then too)

It certainly would have been a bold decision, and who knows where we'd be today in terms of rapid transit... would the line have been extended or others built, or would that initial route have remained as-is? Would people be more open to surface LRT today?

The impact on downtown is hard to speculate too - it would have made commuting from the mountain easier, but downtown in the 1980s-90s was declining due to other factors. Today with employment growing there again, it would be a positive influence.

[matt602]

My personal guess is that it would have been an ugly white elephant, much like the people mover in Detroit. Something like that needs really excellent land planning like Vancouver has had over the past few decades, otherwise it just becomes an ugly, under-utilized eyesore.

[ScreamingViking]

I just re-read a set of articles I'd saved regarding the ICTS (from 1981, "The Great Linear Seduction" was on the first page). It took a critical look at the proposal and proponents, but in other sections it's uncanny how many of the same points being debated today were raised more than three decades ago. History may indeed be repeating.

There was a section on cheaper ways to improve the HSR and build demand - using bus lanes, transit priority signaling, improved east-west electric trolley service, and a new north-south trolley route. Did this kind of discussion eventually result in the B-Line? (and introduction of the A-Line much later?) We all know what happened to the trolleys.

Looks like thistleclub had posted it here in the forum but the link below no longer points to the PDF document, and I can't find it anywhere online (the Hamilton Transit History site may have had a copy but that website doesn't seem to be working any more)
Excerpt from a 1981 magazine feature on the "Intermediate Capacity Transit System" proposed for Hamilton back in the day (http://goo.gl/Lvxww).

[thistleclub]

I missed it earlier this aft, but @EricGillis tweeted (https://twitter.com/BobBerberick/status/471792817422233600):

LRT: @TedMcMeekin "It isn't a priority... would make sense in the future" True colours shining through. #HamOnt #onpoli #IStandForLRT

Silence from the ADFW Liberal candidate, but his former EA and 2011 Ontario Liberal HESC candidate Mark Cripps (https://twitter.com/MarkCripps/status/471850743473786880) has gamely stepped in with some endearing don't-be-so-ungrateful spin.


Will have a look for that ICTS PDF. It's currently MIA.

[HillStreetBlues]

Silence from the ADFW Liberal candidate, but his former EA and 2011 Ontario Liberal HESC candidate Mark Cripps (https://twitter.com/MarkCripps/status/471850743473786880) has gamely stepped in with some endearing don't-be-so-ungrateful spin.


Very lovely on his part. Stunning that someone would still have the audacity to question the Liberals on an issue when they have plied us with all of those wonderful gifts.

[thistleclub]

Earlier today the NDP released email documents (http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ontariondp/pages/477/attachments/original/1401364967/Twitter_AstroTurf-Hilights.pdf?1401364967) detailing what they have described as Metrolinx's "astro-turf campaign designed to suppress public criticism and manufacture the appearance of grassroots support."

Those emails (http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ontariondp/pages/477/attachments/original/1401364967/Twitter_AstroTurf-Hilights.pdf?1401364967) are from 2012 but they recall the agency's 2008 Positioning and Communications Strategy (https://web.archive.org/web/20121130190210/http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/pdf/metrolinx.pdf). (H/T Steve Munro (http://stevemunro.ca/?p=1874))

[thistleclub]

LRT rolls into Hamilton East-Stoney Creek debate (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4552452-lrt-rolls-into-hamilton-east-stoney-creek-debate/)
(Hamilton Spectator, Daniel Nolan, June 1 2014)

Candidates for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek hammered away at light rail transit, the Liberal budget and school closures at the Cable 14 TV debate.

Liberal candidate Ivan Luksic does not support light rail transit (LRT) for Hamilton and his divergence from the party line was the focus of questions from NDP candidate and incumbent Paul Miller....

NDP and LRT
Miller: "We have been behind the LRT since Day One. We understand we need to invest in our city to make it grow."

Luksic and LRT
Luksic: People say to me that the LRT is not necessary. I'm not listening to a Toronto bureaucracy. I'm listening to the people of this city ... I'm looking for a transit solution. I'm not looking for a pie in the sky delusion."

Luksic and LRT 2
Miller: "It appears you are for congestion ... LRT has been a successful project in Cleveland and Seattle. Cleveland's downtown was dead and they brought the LRT in and it's now booming."

Read it in full here (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4552452-lrt-rolls-into-hamilton-east-stoney-creek-debate/).

[matt602]

I wonder why the Liberal candidate kinda flip flopped there...

"The reason people don't want to vote is because they don't like the options."

Well at least he got that one bang on.

[drpgq]

Earlier today the NDP released email documents (http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ontariondp/pages/477/attachments/original/1401364967/Twitter_AstroTurf-Hilights.pdf?1401364967) detailing what they have described as Metrolinx's "astro-turf campaign designed to suppress public criticism and manufacture the appearance of grassroots support."

Those emails (http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ontariondp/pages/477/attachments/original/1401364967/Twitter_AstroTurf-Hilights.pdf?1401364967) are from 2012 but they recall the agency's 2008 Positioning and Communications Strategy (https://web.archive.org/web/20121130190210/http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/pdf/metrolinx.pdf). (H/T Steve Munro (http://stevemunro.ca/?p=1874))

I would love to see some internal Metrolinx emails on Hamilton's LRT plans. My guess would be that they would reflect that the bureaucracy would much prefer to spend as little as possible in Hamilton.

[thistleclub]

I would love to see some internal Metrolinx emails on Hamilton's LRT plans. My guess would be that they would reflect that the bureaucracy would much prefer to spend as little as possible in Hamilton.

Certainly pre-2009, when the agency's governance structure was overhauled (http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&BillID=2167). Hard to imagine now that it has been reduced to an an agency mainly notable for repackaging the status quo and bumbling through episodes of technological pratfalls (http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2012/12/12/auditor_general_says_presto_smart_card_cost_has_ballooned_to_700_million.html), requisite nepotism (http://www.torontosun.com/2013/08/18/metrolinx-bureaucrats-score-premium-tickets) and marketing (http://www.torontosun.com/2013/11/04/metrolinx-sponsorship-scandal-not-news-document) misadventures (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/ndp-calls-on-top-auditor-to-probe-metrolinx-sponsorship-deal-of-tiff/article13847345/), but Metrolinx was originally supposed to be an independent agency (though that independence has been largely stripped away).

It is significant that the promise of LRT was not introduced by the agency but by campaigning politicians (http://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/2217674-hamiltonians-rallying-for-lrt-province-s-promise-at-stake/) (Metrolinx had pencilled in "rapid transit"). The vacillation we have seen since then – as well as ham-fisted by-election politicking (http://www.torontolife.com/informer/toronto-politics/2014/06/02/five-things-learned-spacings-investigation-shady-politicking-behind-scarborough-subway/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=five-things-learned-spacings-investigation-shady-politicking-behind-scarborough-subway) from a minister who would go on to introduce legislation that would make long-range planning sacrosanct (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/11/26/liberals_propose_10year_plan_to_replace_crumbling_infrastructure.html) and ideological (http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/03/17/light-rail-transit-better-bang-for-the-buck-advisory-panel/) backflips (http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/01/scarborough-guildwood-results-subway-champion-mitzie-hunter-wins-scarborough-seat-after-tight-three-way-race/) that made the agency an open joke (http://torontoist.com/2013/09/metrolinx-spins-the-scarborough-subway/) -- does suggest a rethink might be going on. The government now regularly defers to Metrolinx's best judgement, an attitude that was scarcely conceivable during the hotly contested Scarborough by-election. The transit wrangling of that by-election will almost certainly impact the way the agency comes to evaluate Hamilton's business case for LRT.

Then again, the door is open for reviewing pretty much everything. Escape hatches are built into every project and proposal, and the entire Big Move is up for review in two years' time. It's not impossible to imagine that adjustments might be in the offing.

[thistleclub]

As Minister of Transportation, she swapped LRT for all-day GO trains. Now she encourages Hamilton to be clear about what it really wants.

Wynne says Liberal division on LRT makes it important to hear from Hamilton (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4565438-wynne-says-liberal-division-on-lrt-makes-it-important-to-hear-from-hamilton/)
(Hamilton Spectator, Daniel Nolan, June 7 2014)

With some Hamilton Liberal candidates dissenting on the idea of a light rail transit (LRT) line for the city, Premier Kathleen Wynne says it makes it more important for the province to hear from the city on its transportation priorities.

"As these decisions are made, the provincial government must partner with municipal government and make sure the priorities of communities are heard and that the investments are made in the best way possible," she said Saturday morning during a campaign stop in Waterdown.

"I know that there has been a lot of conversation about the LRT."

Read it in full here (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4565438-wynne-says-liberal-division-on-lrt-makes-it-important-to-hear-from-hamilton/).

[matt602]

Maybe we should submit our preference to the province, officially, then.

Oh wait, we did over a year ago:

http://raisethehammer.org/article/1792/rapid_ready:_staff_recommend_a_real_commitment_to_integrated_transportation

"The report recommends that Council direct public works staff to submit the report to Metrolinx as Hamilton's submission and plan for a B-Line light rail transit (LRT) service."

[lucasmascotto]

Can we please create a petition and collect a bunch of signatures and mail it to various politicians?

[thistleclub]

Maybe we should submit our preference to the province, officially, then.

Oh wait, we did over a year ago:

http://raisethehammer.org/article/1792/rapid_ready:_staff_recommend_a_real_commitment_to_integrated_transportation

"The report recommends that Council direct public works staff to submit the report to Metrolinx as Hamilton's submission and plan for a B-Line light rail transit (LRT) service."

Local Liberal cabinet minister's show of support for Hamilton LRT (http://elections.raisethehammer.org/question/4/33/): “The best transit option will be determined by council and supported by citizens.”

Champions from the Bratina school.

[drpgq]

Pretty annoying that two Liberal candidates (not MPPs) can continue to throw more sand in the works. As I've argued, this suits the Liberals just fine. They don't have to spend any real money in Hamilton and deploy it in their electoral base.

[thistleclub]

Are Liberals dense or sneaky on LRT? (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4570557-dreschel-are-liberals-dense-or-sneaky-on-lrt-/)
(Hamilton Spectator, Andrew Dreschel, June 11 2014)

Holy Schmidt!

When will the Ontario Liberal Party get it through its thick skull that Hamilton has a position on LRT and it hasn't changed?

The Liberals' refusal to accept that stark fact is fast becoming a running joke or, worse, grounds for a conspiracy theory.

Premier Kathleen Wynne made the latest political pratfall on behalf of her party last weekend while campaigning in Hamilton.

Given that local Liberal candidates Javid Mirza and Ivan Luksic oppose light rail transit, Wynne reportedly said that makes it more important for the province to hear from the city on its transportation priorities.

"As these decision are made, the provincial government must partner with municipal government and make sure the priorities of communities are heard and that the investments are made in the best way possible," Wynne said.
"I know there has been a lot of conversation about the LRT."

Wynne must be under a lot of pressure in these dying days of the election campaign. But her comments once again suggest her party is either not firmly seated in the socket on this file or it's playing some kind of sick mind game with Hamiltonians.


Read it in full here (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4570557-dreschel-are-liberals-dense-or-sneaky-on-lrt-/).

[interr0bangr]

Horwath is a 100% lock in Hamilton Center right, like, it's not even a race?

[Beedok]

I'd say 90% (maybe 95%).

[HillStreetBlues]

I'd say 90% (maybe 95%).

According to the web site threehundredeight.com whose owner is a poll aggregator, Horwath is 98% likely to win her seat.

That makes it one of the very few ultra-secure ridings, but he has a few Eastern Ontario ridings down as 99% and even 100% for the Tories.

[markbarbera]

Well, I guess Howarth has locked herself in as a temporary seat holder for Hamilton Centre. If provincially the NDP do as poorly as I expect, I would not be surprised to see Howarth resign and run for mayor of Hamilton. If they manage to hold their seat count, she may hold on longer and pass on joining the mayoral race, but I do not expct to see her see the term out. There is every indication that this has not been a good campaign for the NDP and she will likely bolt before she is pushed out by the party establishment.

[HillStreetBlues]

We’ve only got two days to wait to see how many seats they manage. How many do you think would be enough for her to get another full term as leader? Can gains be made and the writing still be painted on the wall for her?

I’m asking seriously. It’s hard for me to get into the mindset of a typical NDP member. She’s seems to be a fairly successful leader, would they really take the opinion that they could do better with someone else at this point?

They seem to be polling at a very similar level to the last election. I can’t imagine them doing much worse. And although Howarth might take some flak for voting against a budget with a lot of what she wanted, asking to see a mandate from the people before continuing to support the Liberals is not indefensible.

[Beedok]

Last election they won 17 seats at ~23% support. ThreeHundredEight is expecting them to get 19 seats at ~20% support. (Though losing a few seats that defected.)

That seems lackluster, but not disasterous to me.

The polls have been all over the place though, so who knows. I mean Abacus had them at 28% on Saturday.

[MalcolmTucker]

Thinking like an NDP insider though, they forced the election so shouldn't have they waited (or gone earlier) for a more advantageous result? As a chief strategist, unless they protect incumbents and have growth, she is done.

[drpgq]

Horwath is a 100% lock in Hamilton Center right, like, it's not even a race?

I'd say 100%. The Liberal candidate lives in Ancaster.

[SteelTown]

It's a liberal majority government. We'll likely have Glen Murray as Transport Minister again. He said before the election he'll go to council.

[interr0bangr]

I voted Liberal in Hamilton Central even though Horwath was a lock. Now gimme dat LRT Wynne!

[CaptainKirk]

I voted Liberal in Hamilton Central even though Horwath was a lock. Now gimme dat LRT Wynne!


Anti-LRT Liberal candidates Mirza and Luksic lost in Hamilton. Is Wynne hearing form Hamilton now?

[matt602]

So we're going to get screwed around some more again and asked what our stand on LRT is again so they can get out of their commitment again for the next 4 years?

[markbarbera]

I would caution against trying to interpret the local results as some sort of endorsement for LRT. This election was not won or lost on any single issue. Rather, it was about the big picture. Voters passed judgement on the overall vision and trustworthiness of each party leader. The judgement passed on Wynne and Hudak was obvious. We now have Premier Mom and Hudak immediately fell on his sword.

For Howarth, the implications are more subtle, but the writing is on the wall for her. Howarth's sharp turn to the right has left the NDP a house divided. Howarth's big gamble was based on the hope that the election will result in her being returned as kingmaker in a minority government situation. While the NDP seat count remained unchanged and their total vote count increased marginally, the party has lost any influence or ownership on public policy now that they are the third party in a majority government. While she held onto her own seat, Howarth's plurality in her own riding was markedly reduced, despite the fact that she had no significant challenger up against her. She would be wise to plan her exit from the NDP on her own terms before she gets pushed out.

As far as LRT in Hamilton goes, not much has changed as a result of this election. The promise of stable government at Queen's Park for four years will allow the current economic constraints to be discussed more openly and honestly. The Wynne government has some time to recalibrate spending priorities without the threat of a snap election interfering with long-term planning. Personally, I believe we are creeping closer to a phased BRT / LRT rapid transit solution for Hamilton. We now have a good four months of municipal campaigning to hash out that debate.

[HillStreetBlues]

[Horwath] would be wise to plan her exit from the NDP on her own terms before she gets pushed out.

This is what you were saying before the vote. I wonder if any result would have convinced you otherwise. Like you say, the total vote count increased. Her seat count remained the same, against odds.

This was her second election. She consistently rated as the most likeable leader, and by all accounts ran a competent campaign. Holding on to those by-election wins when everyone seemed to be focused on the NDP’s relative advantage in by-elections was a testament to that. I have no idea why the NDP would choose to waste time and resources replacing her, when they could rather have a likeable and competent leader who will soon be the most experienced alternative to the current premiere.

I agree with you on LRT. I can’t imagine it being front of mind for more than a few voters. We’ll talk about it yet more from now until October. I can’t envision us electing any kind of a council very supportive, so it might be tough going.

[Innsertnamehere]

The fact the NDP kept their seats is more due to a PC collapse than an NDP success. They lost a lot of their Toronto seats in exchange for a lot of Southern Ontario PC seats where the PC vote collapsed.

[flar]

Horwath gambled and lost. I guess it's up to NDP party whether she survives. I think she will, though I personally don't think she should.

[HillStreetBlues]

The fact the NDP kept their seats is more due to a PC collapse than an NDP success.

This can be said for the Liberals, too, but no one would suggest that their leader step aside because it was more a Tory loss than a Grit win. That they were the preferred alternative in some seats that are traditionally Tory (Kitchener-Waterloo; London West; Niagara Falls) is impressive. It’s unfortunate that they lost a few seats in Toronto at the same time, but it’s not like they were blown out of the water in any of them.

[Beedok]

The Horwath Gamble was certainly better than the Marois Gamble.

[mattgrande]

The NDP increased their share of the popular vote, maintained their seat count, and lost all their power...

[Beedok]

The NDP increased their share of the popular vote, maintained their seat count, and lost all their power...

Which might be good longterm. The negotiations needed in a minority situation caused things to take longer, that could have led people to view them as obstructionist. I remember seeing a lot of people complaining about the politicking they were up to. Now that's less of an issue.

[HillStreetBlues]

I think you’re right about that, beedok. Eventually, it would have appeared as though they were wasting everyone’s time.

In this situation, they actually only have a quarter fewer seats than the Tories. Distracted by a leadership race as the Tories will be, the NDP have a good opportunity to act as a credible and effective opposition.

[markbarbera]

CBC Hamitlon has an interesting story on this topic here (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/support-for-horwath-s-leadership-but-questions-too-1.2674087).

It is accompaniesd with a poll question, "Should Andrea Horwath stay on as leader of the Ontario NDP?" as of 2:00PM, 358 answered "yes" (27.2%), 827 said "no" (62.9%), and 130 (9.9%) are unsure.

[bigguy1231]

CBC Hamitlon has an interesting story on this topic here (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/support-for-horwath-s-leadership-but-questions-too-1.2674087).

It is accompaniesd with a poll question, "Should Andrea Horwath stay on as leader of the Ontario NDP?" as of 2:00PM, 358 answered "yes" (27.2%), 827 said "no" (62.9%), and 130 (9.9%) are unsure.

It's not about what outsiders think of the NDP to NDP members.

Historically, the NDP never throws their leader under the bus after an election loss. They will continue to support her until she decides it's time to leave. Considering they increased their popular vote and maintained their number of seats they will be happy with her performance.

[ScreamingViking]

No doubt though that their power in the legislature is substantially lower. I don't see a reason for Horwath to step aside though, as she can still be an effective leader and I don't think there's anyone as capable right now in the NDP.

But I do hope there is more constructive debate now, and less finger pointing. I also hope she does more to advocate on behalf of Hamilton... despite what's involved leading the party, she still has a responsibility to her constituents.

[thistleclub]

How Wynne can repair Liberals’ public transit credibility (http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/06/16/lorinc-wynne-can-repair-liberals-public-transit-credibility/)
(Spacing, John Lorinc, June 16 2014)

With premier Kathleen Wynne promising to move quickly to deliver a throne speech, re-introduce the budget that won her last week’s election and appoint a new cabinet, she’s got a superb opportunity to re-build the Liberals’ tattered credibility on the public transit file, which, if we are to believe her campaign rhetoric, will be a central focus of her government’s program.

From where I sit, Wynne can choose to make three moves that would go some distance to proving that the Liberals are genuine about tackling gridlock:

• shuffle Glen Murray out of transportation and infrastructure and give the portfolio to a steady, experienced minister;
• move swiftly to reform the governance of Metrolinx with legislation that adds elected municipal officials from across the GTHA to the board;
• enter into negotiations with the two other parties to adopt a tamper proof financial oversight system for the $29 billion transportation trust fund.

Read it in full here ( http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/06/16/lorinc-wynne-can-repair-liberals-public-transit-credibility/).

[thistleclub]

While the budget still has yet to pass, and the funding parameters/criteria remain abstract at best, Lorinc's third point is critical, particularly in light of government's sub-optimal track record on accountability.

The specifics of the Big Move funding mechanism will hopefully be articulated in the upcoming budget bill (to be introduced in early July) as they were not outlined in the May Budget. In fact, Bill 194 (http://www.ontla.on.ca/bills/bills-files/40_Parliament/Session2/b194.pdf) does not seem to contain any references to transit, and only mentions infrastructure with regard to the so-called "Trillium Trust Act", a pool of public money that would be used "to fund, directly or indirectly, costs incurred in connection with constructing or acquiring infrastructure or other tangible capital assets." This is the reserve that would fund the Big Move inside the GTHA and other infrastructure needs outside of it.

Even without having a fix on the specifics, however, it doesn't seem likely that Hamilton would pay in without getting something back. The ongoing "either Hamilton will pay $X million and get LRT or Hamilton will pay $X million and get nothing in return" formulation has always seemed a bit dubious to me.

There are a number of active transportation/Big Move outlets for which Hamilton might be funding-eligible, and a number of variables that will impact Hamilton's prospects for LRT, not least among them the heightened competition now that the province is looking to carve up $15 million rather than $34 million.

And of course council's determination to pay (next to) nothing for a system upgrade.

[CaptainKirk]

... it doesn't seem likely that Hamilton would pay in without getting something back. The ongoing "either Hamilton will pay $X million and get LRT or Hamilton will pay $X million and get nothing in return" formulation has always seemed a bit dubious to me.

Don't forget that Hamilton's all day GO will cost over $2B, so I guess they could justify making us pay and still deny us our LRT.

[SteelTown]

*IF*, and I stress if, the city does have to pay a portion of the capital cost I'd imagine the province will allow the City to pay after the LRT is completed and all the extra assessment money collected would go towards the city's portion of the capital cost.

[HillStreetBlues]

*IF*, and I stress if, the city does have to pay a portion of the capital cost I'd imagine the province will allow the City to pay after the LRT is completed and all the extra assessment money collected would go towards the city's portion of the capital cost.

Out of curiosity, why do you think this? Is there an example of Metrolinx and the province doing this with other projects in other municipalities? It feels unlikely to me, but if there’s clear precedent, then I guess it’s a possibility.

[markbarbera]

The recently announced $3B expansion of Toronto's Bloor-Danforth subway line has a funding split of $1.5B from the province, $660 million from the feds, and the reminder funded by the City of Toronto. Toronto plans to raise the funds by implementing a phased-in transit tax supplement to the municipal tax base to counter carrying 30-year debt for their portion of the capital cost.

More information can be found in this article from the Toronto Star (http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/10/08/scarborough_subway_confirmed_by_toronto_council.html).

[thistleclub]

Is there an example of Metrolinx and the province doing this with other projects in other municipalities? It feels unlikely to me, but if there’s clear precedent, then I guess it’s a possibility.

KPMG’s Big Move Implementation Economics: Revenue Tool Profiles (http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/funding/IS_Appendix_A_EN.pdf) (Mar 2013) considered tax increment financing to possess “modest overall potential as a revenue source.” They note:

Tax increment financing (“TIF”) is a public finance technique used by local government jurisdictions to fund infrastructure initiatives and stimulate economic development in designated geographic areas. TIFs work by leveraging future tax revenue increases to finance current infrastructure projects. The mechanism effectively dedicates the incremental tax revenue between the assessed value of designated areas (“TIF zones”) prior to the development and its assessed value over time. By doing this, future tax gains are leveraged to finance the present costs of eligible improvements in designated areas.

This financing technique was originally used in California as a way to stimulate development in blighted areas and have since been authorized in 49 of the 50 US states.

TIFs are much less prevalent in Canada. In Ontario, the Province only recently approved legislation to permit TIF on a pilot basis for the Toronto-York-Spadina Subway Extension and the West Don Lands redevelopment initiative.

The city would basically allow the province to take any increases in property tax along the B-Line for a period of 30 to 50 years, basically the lifecycle of the infrastructure. That’s simple and invisible enough, though this method of financing would likely require a detailed and rigorous analysis to back up projections, which would potentially buy the government more time before having to invest.

[thistleclub]

Megacity mayoral candidate John Tory is another evangelist for the TIF cause.

Toronto Star, May 27 2014 (http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2014/05/27/john_tory_promises_relief_rail_running_from_mississauga_to_toronto_to_markham.html):

Tory would build a new rail line west from Eglinton Ave. to the Airport Corporate Centre in Mississauga.

Typically with transit capital projects, the city must come up one-third of the cost — which Tory has put at $2.5 billion for his plan.

Tory said those funds could be raised over 30 years with what’s called tax increment financing. Provincial legislation introduced in 2006 allows the city to borrow on future property revenue.

His team says three upcoming developments — in Liberty Village, the downtown core, and the former Unilever site just west of the Don River — have been assessed and would cover the cost.

Former finance minister Greg Sorbara told the Star the tool hasn’t been used since it was introduced, but was meant for projects exactly like the one Tory is proposing.


Sorbara’s Tax Increment Financing Act can be found as Schedule Z.7 (http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/statutes/english/elaws_statutes_06t33_e.htm
) of the omnibus Bill 151, Budget Measures Act, 2006 (No. 2) (http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&BillID=477&isCurrent=false&ParlSessionID=38%3A2)

[HillStreetBlues]

Thanks, thistleclub. Definitely does seem like a promising possibility.

[thistleclub]

Not a quick-win option, however. Expect delays for the feasibility study, consideration of the feasibility study and, given ministerial approval, the designation of a TIF district.

Related detail from the Rapid Ready ( http://www.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyres/76D38C17-DC96-4C54-8E55-3A6EA1C71D73/0/Feb25EDRMS_n414203_v1_5_1_PW13014.pdf
) report:

In terms of financial benefits to the City, Canadian Urban Institute (CUI) estimates that three times the number of development projects are likely to occur along the corridor within the same timeframe with LRT as compared to without LRT (e.g. 108 projects versus 32). If that were to occur, there would be an associated tax benefit from new development estimated at $22 million. Building permit fees and development charges (existing development exemptions removed) are estimated at $30 million. The assessed value of existing properties along the corridor is expected to increase by $29 million over a fifteen year period; however, this is a benefit to the property owner with no direct financial gain to the City.

LRT may have an added financial benefit to the City as the implementation of LRT could help address the backlog of rehabilitation, replacement and reconstruction capital works needs in the corridor, which are not programmed in the future capital budget at this time, at an estimated value of up to $79 million.

[thistleclub]

The specifics of the Big Move funding mechanism will hopefully be articulated in the upcoming budget bill (to be introduced in early July) as they were not outlined in the May Budget. In fact, Bill 194 (http://www.ontla.on.ca/bills/bills-files/40_Parliament/Session2/b194.pdf) does not seem to contain any references to transit, and only mentions infrastructure with regard to the so-called "Trillium Trust Act", a pool of public money that would be used "to fund, directly or indirectly, costs incurred in connection with constructing or acquiring infrastructure or other tangible capital assets." This is the reserve that would fund the Big Move inside the GTHA and other infrastructure needs outside of it.

Looks like that's all we're getting for now. The Star reports (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/06/19/charles_sousa_to_remain_as_finance_minister_in_revamped_liberal_cabinet.html):

[Finance Minister Charles] Sousa is to reintroduce his May 1 budget next month — the Liberals are not even bothering to print new copies of the spending plan and will recycle the old books.

[thistleclub]

Arrivederci, Glen. The Star suggests (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/06/23/kathleen_wynne_to_unveil_major_postelection_cabinet_shuffle.html) that the Ontario Liberals will soon name their seventh Minister of Transportation since 2003, just part of an upcoming cabinet shuffle:


Another first-time minister Steven Del Duca, the MPP for Vaughan and one of the Liberals’ rising stars, succeeds Glen Murray at a restructured Transportation ministry.

Del Duca, one of four newcomers in the 27-member cabinet, will oversee the $15-billion transit investment in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area as well as the $14 billion in new transportation infrastructure in the rest of Ontario.

“The premier is putting an emphasis on the government’s priorities,” a senior government official said Monday, speaking on background....

Murray moves to Environment, taking over for veteran Jim Bradley, who will stick around as minister without portfolio and dispense advice and wisdom in cabinet.

Brad Duguid, who had been at Training Colleges and Universities, is getting a promotion.

Duguid, the Scarborough Centre MPP, takes over a reconstituted Ministry of Economic Development, Employment, and Infrastructure. He had served briefly at a smaller economic development department and at the old ministry of energy and infrastructure.

Gaining new authority is Research and Innovation Minister Reza Moridi, a nuclear scientist who will also run Training, Colleges and Universities.

The Pan Am Games, which are less than 13 months away, get a fresh minister after spate of challenges.

Michael Coteau, is the new Tourism, Culture and Sports and Pan Am minister.

Coteau, MP for Don Valley East, replaces Michael Chan, who moves to Citizenship, Immigration, and Trade.

[thistleclub]

Via CBC (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-cabinet-shuffle-hoskins-to-become-health-minister-1.2685093)/Toronto Star (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/06/23/kathleen_wynne_to_unveil_major_postelection_cabinet_shuffle.html)/CP (http://globalnews.ca/news/1411449/mitzie-hunter-will-assist-finance-minister-set-up-ontario-pension-plan/): MPP Mitzie Hunter (former CivicAction CEO, LRT (http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/03/17/light-rail-transit-better-bang-for-the-buck-advisory-panel/) subway champion (http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/01/scarborough-guildwood-results-subway-champion-mitzie-hunter-wins-scarborough-seat-after-tight-three-way-race/) and, most recently, Parliamentary Assistant to MCSS Minister McMeekin) will assume the role of Associate Minister of Finance, responsible for the forthcoming Ontario Retirement Pension Plan. To be rolled out by 2017, the ORPP is anticipated (http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2014/foreword.html) to create "new pools of capital... available for Ontario-based projects such as building roads, bridges and new transit."

[SteelTown]

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

[thistleclub]

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

A good lay-up for a mayoral bid ( http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/03/23/linda_jeffrey_quits_ontario_cabinet_to_run_for_brampton_mayor.html).

[thistleclub]

The Globe & Mail's Adrian Morrow weighs in (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/six-things-to-know-about-ontarios-new-government/article19306219/) on the cabinet shuffle:

In one of the most rapid recent rises in Ontario politics, Vaughan’s Steven Del Duca – a relative rookie with less than two years in the legislature – has vaulted off the backbench and into the high-profile transportation portfolio.

Mr. Del Duca has proven himself a pitbull in the legislature, where he serves as one of the Liberals’ three attack dogs. Now, he will have to bring the same toughness to smashing gridlock.

He will be tasked with spending the $29-billion Ms. Wynne has pledged for public transit, highways and bridges. It is one of the government’s priority files and, as evidenced by the non-stop battle at Toronto city council on subways versus LRTs, can be one of the most fractious.

Mr. Del Duca’s job will be to juggle a long list of projects, ensuring all are moving forward, while settling disputes at municipalities and between local politicians and the province.

Metrolinx and Queen’s Park have historically been timid in the face of local bickering – a skittishness that has delayed transit-building in Toronto for the past four years. With a majority government backing him, Mr. Del Duca’s greatest challenge will be to show he can be authoritative in deciding which projects will be built and how, and then get them moving forward.

He may face his first major hurdle later this year. Toronto’s mayoral race is divided on transit, with some candidates pushing for a return to an LRT project in Scarborough and others looking to tear up existing plans for a new downtown subway line. No matter who wins, Mr. Del Duca is likely to face more bickering at council.

Glen Murray has been dropped from his once-powerful perch at transportation and infrastructure, shuffled to the low-profile environment ministry.

There are two probable reasons for the change. First, Mr. Murray came into transportation wanting to re-examine the Big Move – a massive transit plan years in the making. That earned the ire of a Premier’s office already wary of how changing plans have stalled transit building in the province.

Then, Mr. Murray turned a public relations win into a disaster last summer. On the day the province announced it would build a subway extension into Scarborough, he got into a public war of words with Toronto Transit Commission chair Karen Stintz that had to be resolved on a TV talk-show.

While Mr. Murray’s big public persona is badly needed in an often dry government, it seemed to become a liability in an already-contentious portfolio.

[thistleclub]

An adult conversation about transit, redux (http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/06/23/lorinc-adult-conversation-transit-redux/)
(Spacing.ca, John Lorinc, June 23 2014)

Last week, I proposed in this space (http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/06/16/lorinc-wynne-can-repair-liberals-public-transit-credibility/) three key moves that Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals could make to signal their seriousness about funding GTA transit expansion. But if the re-elected premier wants to take things to the next level and make a bold and region-altering move, here’s a fourth: Implement the revenue tools recommended last year by Metrolinx (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-transit-proposal-could-cost-each-household-477-a-year-1.1343428) (HST, gas tax, parking levy, development charges) as a means of making up the approximately $20 billion gap between what the government has pledged to invest in transit and the sum required to complete the Big Move over the next twenty years.

If there was ever a propitious moment to make, well, a big move, we’re absolutely in the middle of it. In almost 20 years of covering urban affairs in Toronto, I can’t remember another opportunity quite this ripe.

Consider the architecture: politically, Wynne not only finds herself at the helm of a solid, urban-based majority, while she also faces two opposition parties in shambles. The seat-reduced Tories will be leaderless — and toothless — as of July 2. The NDP’s Andrea Horwath hasn’t yet had her head handed to her, but the election results suggest that progressives abandoned her pocket-book electoral agenda in droves. It’s an alignment perfectly suited to pushing ahead with important but unpopular decisions.

Fiscally, Wynne is promising the sun, the moon and the stars. But her proposed spending levels, and the associated deficit projections, are unsustainable. Bay Street and the bond rating agencies have already started pressuring the Wynne government (http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/13/ontario-election-2014-debt-downgrade/) to dial back the borrowing required to implement her progressive agenda. And with the threat of higher debt servicing costs added to Ontario’s staggering $295 billion in outstanding debt (http://www.ofina.on.ca/borrowing_debt/debt.htm) (yes, you’re reading that number correctly), the government will yield – it’s not a matter of “if”, it’s a matter of “when.”

Wynne, in short, will face a fork in the road: either adopt a far more modest agenda than the one she ran on, or impose new taxes to make up the shortfall.


Read it in full here (http://spacing.ca/toronto/2014/06/23/lorinc-adult-conversation-transit-redux/)

[movingtohamilton]

Ted McMeekin got a nice promotion as Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Should do well for Hamilton.

Why? Do we have data indicating a correlation between "doing well for Hamilton" and his previous portfolio?