Quote:
Originally Posted by mmmatt
Thanks for the feedback, and to clarify a bit:
- POPCTR must be a place with over 1000 population and a density of 400 people per square kilometer.
- Airports land is also included for some reason provided it doesn't drop the number below 400 with it's inclusion. (YFC, YQM and YSJ are all included within their respective POPCTRs leading to some odd looking empty areas).
Saint John
Regarding your note about the connection between Saint John and Rothesay I would have a different take on that, if you see below the distance between any semblance of "built up" area in the two is more than 2.5 KM and certainly not contiguous. The same applies to McEwan for Moncton, yes there is a single road connecting them with some houses and businesses along it but that does not qualify as contiguous build up area with a population density above 400 per sq km.
If we want to get a bit more technical about it (why not!) lets look at the area a bit closer, this "gap" is roughly 6 km/2 and contains about 100 houses, lets generously assume 3 people per house giving us 300 people in 6 km/2 which is a density of 50 per km/2 well below the threshold.
All this being said there are still some sketchy looking connections that exist like between Saint John and GBW which makes the cut because there is just enough depth to the housing all along the waterfront. Also in Fredericton McLeod Hill in the north is included when there is some pretty sparse dividing space there too. |
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmmatt
I will present an additional comparison using the GeoNB mapping system which can show us maps of buildings alone with no other visual interference and this helps us see better the built up density of an area.
I will show a few areas below, these are ranked in order of their density and I will slot the area in question (Brookville / Drury Cove) in where it seems to belong.
4. Brookville / Drury Cove
Low develpment area between SJ and Rothesay (due to difficult terrain).
Population density is about 50 per Km2
This is NOT included in a POPCTR
I think the simple fact that the entirety of Uptown SJ would fit inside this transition area of Brookville / Drury Cove should be proof enough that a scattering of about 100 buildings over that same land area is not "built up"  . I'm thinking part of the confusion comes from the sense "on the ground" that they are linked because people tend to drive 80 - 90 on Rothesay Ave in this section therefore our sense of time and space is a bit warped in a way, Rothesay Ave itself has a decent level of buildings especially when driving by at speed, and this gives the impression of more of a link, but true density is more than one street deep. |
Sounds like it would be very much in Saint John's best interest to prioritize residential development in its own extensive portion of the Kennebecasis Valley, right up to the "border" with Rothesay, despite the "difficult terrain". I think it would be interesting to find out how much of this land with Saint John's portion of the Kennebecasis Valley is owned by KV people outside the city limits.
The difficult terrain and forest might make a typical cookie cutter suburban housing development challenging, but perhaps some mid rise and high rise developments could start popping up in this vast forested area with stunning views of the river valley?
I think this general area would be an absolutely amazing place to live in a high rise apartment or condo, as the scenic views from 10 or 20 storeys up wouldn't just be among the most scenic in the Saint John region, or the Maritimes... I think they'd be among the most scenic high rise views in Canada. There's thousands of KV baby boomer, empty nesters who are retired or will soon be retired, who might consider selling their homes in Quispamsis, Rothesay, and Millidgeville... who would make the perfect market for luxury condos and apartments in the Kennebecasis Valley.
Rothesay and Quispamsis might not ever approve a 10 or 15+ storey development in our lifetimes, but Saint John could in its own extensive portion of the KV. Spurring on condo and apartment development within Saint John's portion of Grand Bay the KV is one of the few hopes Saint John actually has at at reclaiming former residents that moved out of the city to KV, Grand Bay, and beyond. But time is of the essence, the biggest portion of the baby boomers have already retired, or are very soon to retire.
The Saint John city council sure isn't helping the situation
voting down a 6 storey proposal over height issues! The council put the breaks on a proposal from an out of province developer from BC that wanted to build a nice, six storey apartment complex across two buildings, because they would have preferred to to be 4 storeys.
A lot of retired baby boomers have no interest in ever moving back to Saint John to live in an apartment or condo in Uptown Saint John, the West Side, North End, and many other areas core adjacent areas, but I think many could be convinced to buy condos and rent apartments within Saint John's portion of the Kennebecasis Valley, Grand Bay, and other suburban areas.
It would be especially helpful if the province actually delivers on their promise to enact comprehensive tax reform, as if property tax rates were suddenly equalized across the Saint John Region, KV retirees would be much more likely to purchase a condo or home back within the Saint John City limits... those high tax rates being among the biggest push factors that actually led to people leaving SJ for KV.
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