The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Bishop2047]

Unemployment Numbers Across the Atlantic Oct 2024.

NS: 2.1% fewer positions, but unemployment dropped .1% to 6.2%.
NB: 3.3% more positions, but unemployment rose .1% to 6.8% due to increased workforce participants.
NL: 0.5% more positions and unemployment at 10.1%
PEI: 1.1% few positions and a dramatic (but expected) shift from 7.1% Unemployment to 10% Unemployment

Link below is a great interactive chart for trends over 5 years.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/14-20-0001/142000012018001-eng.htm

[AverageMonctonEnjoyr]

this might already have been discussed and if so I apologize, but does anyone have a good prediction for when New Brunswick could hit a total population of 1 million ? And what the population of our three biggest cities would look like at that point. Would the Moncton region surpass two hundred thousand ?

[Taeolas]

By the StatsCan Population Clock, New Brunswick is at 864,000 now. So we're 140k to go.

Probably more useful there are the quarterly estimates

Q3 2023: 832,190
Q4 2023: 850,678
Q1 2024: 844,433
Q2 2024: 849,168
Q3 2024: 854,355

So in 2024 we added just over 22,000 people.

We are expecting growth to slow significantly going forward, but momentum should carry us forward a bit, and we were growing well even before the current explosion. Plus as our population goes up, we'll tend to get more people.

Figure we keep growing at 20,000 a year, we should hit 1M in about 7 years, or 2032ish. (Something that's rather incredible to believe from even 10 years ago, when we were estimating "decades" to hit 1M).

As for the cities... looking at their growth over the years

Year | Moncton | Saint John | Fredericton
2019 | 155 078 | 131 349 | 109 092
2020 | 158 135 | 132 226 | 110 168
2021 | 161 376 | 133 140 | 111 017
2022 | 168 820 | 135 565 | 114 516
2023 | 178 971 | 138 985 | 119 059

We don't have 2024 numbers yet, but Moncton should be comfortably over 180k now (It's never had less than 3,000 growth). In 6-7 years, it should comfortably be over 200,000, probably close to 205,000.

Eyeball guessing, I'd say Saint John will probably be getting about 2000 per year. So by the time we hit 1M, it will have gained about 16,000 for a population of around 155,000 or so.

Fredericton was only pulling 1000 per year early on, but really jumped up with around 4000 a year in recent years. So I'll give it a slight edge over Saint John and give it 2500 growth rate. That would give it about 20,000 people by the time we hit 1M or roughly 140,000 people. (Where Saint John is now)

[MonctonRad]

I figure Moncton is at 185,000 right now, and should reach 200,000 in 3-4 years - we'll say sometime in 2028.

[AverageMonctonEnjoyr]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

By the StatsCan Population Clock, New Brunswick is at 864,000 now. So we're 140k to go.

Probably more useful there are the quarterly estimates

Q3 2023: 832,190
Q4 2023: 850,678
Q1 2024: 844,433
Q2 2024: 849,168
Q3 2024: 854,355

So in 2024 we added just over 22,000 people.

We are expecting growth to slow significantly going forward, but momentum should carry us forward a bit, and we were growing well even before the current explosion. Plus as our population goes up, we'll tend to get more people.

Figure we keep growing at 20,000 a year, we should hit 1M in about 7 years, or 2032ish. (Something that's rather incredible to believe from even 10 years ago, when we were estimating "decades" to hit 1M).

As for the cities... looking at their growth over the years

Year | Moncton | Saint John | Fredericton
2019 | 155 078 | 131 349 | 109 092
2020 | 158 135 | 132 226 | 110 168
2021 | 161 376 | 133 140 | 111 017
2022 | 168 820 | 135 565 | 114 516
2023 | 178 971 | 138 985 | 119 059

We don't have 2024 numbers yet, but Moncton should be comfortably over 180k now (It's never had less than 3,000 growth). In 6-7 years, it should comfortably be over 200,000, probably close to 205,000.

Eyeball guessing, I'd say Saint John will probably be getting about 2000 per year. So by the time we hit 1M, it will have gained about 16,000 for a population of around 155,000 or so.

Fredericton was only pulling 1000 per year early on, but really jumped up with around 4000 a year in recent years. So I'll give it a slight edge over Saint John and give it 2500 growth rate. That would give it about 20,000 people by the time we hit 1M or roughly 140,000 people. (Where Saint John is now)

Thanks a lot ! Will be looking forward to seeing that !

[mmmatt]

My favorite STATS CAN community boundary is the POPCTR which is essentially a contiguous built up urban/suburban area which is defined not by imaginary borders but instead by the physical built environment. It may encompass several census subdivisions (eg towns, cities) provided they are physically contiguous for example Quispamsis and Rothesay.

Something I must have missed with the 2021 census but find interesting, the Fredericton POPCTR has now eclipsed that of Saint John becoming the second most populous in the province!

Here are some tables I did up today with the data from 2021, apologies because it is a bit out of date by this point, of course we all look forward to the new data in 2026! I have included some color commentary for some points I find interesting about each table.

Overall Population

Moncton (which includes some contiguous areas of Riverview and Dieppe) is the only POPCTR in NB to meet the definition of "large" which is over 100k. Fredericton and Saint John each being over 50k are labeled a "medium" and the remainder "small". Interesting as noted Fred overtaking SJ but also they are very close in size creating a unique comparison. Quispam/Roth present a unique sized urban center in NB which is not seen elsewhere in the province and it is also entirely suburban. Bathurst, Edmundston and the core of Miramichi are all relitively similar in size and create a "Northern Big 3". Shediac POPCTR, with its huge growth, will certainly have overtaken both Oromocto and Campbellton by now and it could soon be chasing down Miramichi which is a bizarre thought.



Population Change

As we already know the SE region continues to explode in general but it is interesting to note that growth seems to be centered in the areas of Moncton, Sackville, Shediac and to a lesser extent Bouctouche. Meanwhile McEwen (essentially a large mobile home park on the outskirts of Moncton) is the only area to lose population in the SE region. Saint Andrews is a stand out for the SW region and we have heard their housing crunch is quite desperate with minimal construction there over the last decade. Woodstock and Tracadie remain the beacons of Northern growth with Woodstock especially beaming, somewhat under the influence of the capital region and also proximity to large local players like McCain, Day&Ross, Sabian Cymbals, Upper Valley Hospital etc. Oromocto surprises with a loss, of course the area is very much under the influence of whatever DND is doing at Base Gagetown. New Maryland is another surprise to shrink while being within the fast growing capital region. Counterintuitively the NE region is the only one inside which all POPCTRs grew, SW was nearly there if not for "Wells" which is a small neighborhood outside Quispamsis in a similar vein to "McEwen".



Population Density

McEwen as mentioned earlier is essentially a single massive mobile home park (more commonly known as Pine Tree) outside Moncton, it is a very small and dense area clearly, seperated from the Moncton area just enough to be it's own satellite POPCTR. Moncton surprises by being not only the largest in land area but also essentially the most densely populated as well, the tri-community area is really unique in the province for this reason. Saint John of course being physically divided from a major portion of it's suburbs makes the comparison to Moncton a little more off balance than usual. Some of the top small communities on this list have extremely tight boundaries however looking past those Saint John shines here having some tight borders and a respectable density of over 900 per sq km. Of course with the larger centers like Moncton, SJ and Freddy they each have some very dense and comparatively sparse suburban areas within each POPCTR. Uptown Saint John easily taking the crown for the most densely populated urban core of the province.

[MonctonRad]

Thanks for your hard work mmmatt

I'm like you, I kinda prefer POPCTR (continuous built up urban area) as a measure of urbanity rather than CMA (which can be a little political given it's reliance on commuter watershed and pre-existing municipal boundaries). This can overinflate the size of an urban area in my mind.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks for your hard work mmmatt

I'm like you, I kinda prefer POPCTR (continuous built up urban area) as a measure of urbanity rather than CMA (which can be a little political given it's reliance on commuter watershed and pre-existing municipal boundaries). This can overinflate the size of an urban area in my mind.

Really cool stuff, I agree. But it can also UNDER-inflate.

New Maryland and Hanwell (AKA 'Starlight Village', lol) being separated from Fredericton is an unfamiliar way to present NB municipal data. Hanwell in particular is just over the TCH from the trailer park in Fredericton off Evergreen, and the infill off Bishop is just a couple hundred meters beyond.

The McEwan trailer park barely has a vacant lot between it and Granite Drive.

I think it could be argued that Rothesay's built-up area connects to Saint John's. There's not even a gap longer than an offramp between Brookville and the southern limits of Rothesay! Is GBW part of Saint John by this metric?

Not nitpicking, just curious about how they come to these decisions. It's very interesting data.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Really cool stuff, I agree. But it can also UNDER-inflate.

New Maryland and Hanwell (AKA 'Starlight Village', lol) being separated from Fredericton is an unfamiliar way to present NB municipal data. Hanwell in particular is just over the TCH from the trailer park in Fredericton off Evergreen, and the infill off Bishop is just a couple hundred meters beyond.

The McEwan trailer park barely has a vacant lot between it and Granite Drive.

I think it could be argued that Rothesay's built-up area connects to Saint John's. There's not even a gap longer than an offramp between Brookville and the southern limits of Rothesay! Is GBW part of Saint John by this metric?

Not nitpicking, just curious about how they come to these decisions. It's very interesting data.

I was wondering similar things, in particular about Rothesay/Quispamsis, which I would strongly argue are very much contiguous with Saint John, especially considering you have to pass through a neighbourhood of Saint John to get to places like K-Park in Rothesay, same as GB-W.

[MonctonRad]

Fair questions.

It is difficult to come up with the perfect definition of what should constitute the real size of an urban area. Your points about Hanwell, Rothesay and Quispamsis are well taken. This is a flaw in the POPCTR.

By the same token however, why is Elgin considered part of the Moncton CMA when Shediac is not? This is nonsensical. The CMA is not a perfect metric either.

How do we reconcile these discrepancies???

[adamuptownsj]

By 'feel' I consider this map to be correct. Three Rivers inclusion in Moncton is debatable but the others I am rock solid on.

https://imgur.com/a/5aYZzPE

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

By 'feel' I consider this map to be correct. Three Rivers inclusion in Moncton is debatable but the others I am rock solid on.

https://imgur.com/a/5aYZzPE

All you have to do is enclose the image address between [img] and [/img] to get the image to display correctly. You get the image address by right clicking on the image.

Parts of Three Rivers belongs in the Moncton conurbation (like Salisbury). Others do not (like Elgin). Petitcodiac is debatable, but probably not. Same thing with Cap Acadie. Areas adjacent to Shediac belong in the conurbation, but, Cap Pele and beyond, probably not.

I like this map. Shediac is included with Moncton.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Fair questions.

It is difficult to come up with the perfect definition of what should constitute the real size of an urban area. Your points about Hanwell, Rothesay and Quispamsis are well taken. This is a flaw in the POPCTR.

By the same token however, why is Elgin considered part of the Moncton CMA when Shediac is not? This is nonsensical. The CMA is not a perfect metric either.

How do we reconcile these discrepancies???

Agreed 100%, IMO switching to an FUA standard would solve all these issues which is a better representation of the economic region(s). Excluding Shediac/Beaubassin/Cap-ele from our CMA doesn't make any sense.

This would be the equivalence of excluding Rothsay/Quispamsis from SJ's CMA.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

All you have to do is enclose the image address between [img] and [/img] to get the image to display correctly. You get the image address by right clicking on the image.

Parts of Three Rivers belongs in the Moncton conurbation (like Salisbury). Others do not (like Elgin). Petitcodiac is debatable, but probably not. Same thing with Cap Acadie. Areas adjacent to Shediac belong in the conurbation, but, Cap Pele and beyond, probably not.

I like this map. Shediac is included with Moncton.

I didn't know that worked with Imgur. Thanks!

I feel like a line has to be drawn somewhere, and municipal limits are best because the line already exists. Not perfect by any means of course.

Also, total correction-- Salisbury is NOT part of Three Rivers, it is now part of 'Mega Salisbury' which I did include in the map. My take on Metro Moncton stands.

I'm not a big annex-everything guy, but the Southeast and Fundy rural districts don't need to exist.

Southeast is eight discontiguous chunks that could be folded into any of their neighbouring municipalities.

For Fundy, put Mispec in Saint John, Hunter Lake in Rothesay or Quispamsis, the far western end of the county in Fundy-St Martins, and put the Kingston Peninsula/Welsford areas into the Kings Rural District.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

All you have to do is enclose the image address between [img] and [/img] to get the image to display correctly. You get the image address by right clicking on the image.

Parts of Three Rivers belongs in the Moncton conurbation (like Salisbury). Others do not (like Elgin). Petitcodiac is debatable, but probably not. Same thing with Cap Acadie. Areas adjacent to Shediac belong in the conurbation, but, Cap Pele and beyond, probably not.

I like this map. Shediac is included with Moncton.

Elgin is party of the Moncton CMA, but Petitcodiac isn't.

I'm hoping that the population in the lower parts of the Three Rivers Community (Elgin area) that were originally part of the Moncton CMA along with at least a quarter of the population or more (but lower than 50%) of the upper parts (Petitcodiac area) of Three Rivers will be able to bring in Three Rivers above the threshold into the Moncton CMA.

As for Fundy-Albert, Lower Coverdale to just below Hillsborough (which is part of the CMA) has more population than from Riverside-Albert to Alma. Therefore I believe that Fundy-Albert will be part of the Moncton CMA.

Tantramar is hard to tell because they took in so many people including the former community of Dorchester that was part of the CMA, the Town of Sackville, a huge amount of area surrounding the Town, plus many people have moved to this part of the province (an extra 24.4%) that it really is hard to tell how close they will be. Especially since so many people that have moved there are more than likely commuting to Greater Moncton.

All these areas that were mentioned, if they aren't part of the CMA by the next census because of the boundary changes, they should at least be on the verge.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Elgin is party of the Moncton CMA, but Petitcodiac isn't.

I'm hoping that the population in the lower parts of the Three Rivers Community (Elgin area) that were originally part of the Moncton CMA along with at least a quarter of the population or more (but lower than 50%) of the upper parts (Petitcodiac area) of Three Rivers will be able to bring in Three Rivers above the threshold into the Moncton CMA.

As for Fundy-Albert, Lower Coverdale to just below Hillsborough (which is part of the CMA) has more population than from Riverside-Albert to Alma. Therefore I believe that Fundy-Albert will be part of the Moncton CMA.

Tantramar is hard to tell because they took in so many people including the former community of Dorchester that was part of the CMA, the Town of Sackville, a huge amount of area surrounding the Town, plus many people have moved to this part of the province (an extra 24.4%) that it really is hard to tell how close they will be. Especially since so many people that have moved there are more than likely commuting to Greater Moncton.

All these areas that were mentioned, if they aren't part of the CMA by the next census because of the boundary changes, they should at least be on the verge.

I was trying to avoid CMA and Population Centre definitions and provide what, broadly, we consider a given city's 'metro area'... places like Elgin/Musquash/Beaubassin/Shediac/Nashwaak/etc might have a lot of commuters but they're quite rural, for my fuzzy definition.

You could theoretically include Belle-Baie/Bathurst in my 'metro area' concept. Nowhere else, really.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I was trying to avoid CMA and Population Centre definitions and provide what, broadly, we consider a given city's 'metro area'... places like Elgin/Musquash/Beaubassin/Shediac/Nashwaak/etc might have a lot of commuters but they're quite rural, for my fuzzy definition.

You could theoretically include Belle-Baie/Bathurst in my 'metro area' concept. Nowhere else, really.

Yes for sure, it's me that got off topic and I was just trying to give some info on where the new CMA boundaries would be in the near future.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Really cool stuff, I agree. But it can also UNDER-inflate.

New Maryland and Hanwell (AKA 'Starlight Village', lol) being separated from Fredericton is an unfamiliar way to present NB municipal data. Hanwell in particular is just over the TCH from the trailer park in Fredericton off Evergreen, and the infill off Bishop is just a couple hundred meters beyond.

The McEwan trailer park barely has a vacant lot between it and Granite Drive.

I think it could be argued that Rothesay's built-up area connects to Saint John's. There's not even a gap longer than an offramp between Brookville and the southern limits of Rothesay! Is GBW part of Saint John by this metric?

Not nitpicking, just curious about how they come to these decisions. It's very interesting data.

Thanks for the feedback, and to clarify a bit:

- POPCTR must be a place with over 1000 population and a density of 400 people per square kilometer.
- Airports land is also included for some reason provided it doesn't drop the number below 400 with it's inclusion. (YFC, YQM and YSJ are all included within their respective POPCTRs leading to some odd looking empty areas).

Moncton:



Fredericton:



Saint John



Regarding your note about the connection between Saint John and Rothesay I would have a different take on that, if you see below the distance between any semblance of "built up" area in the two is more than 2.5 KM and certainly not contiguous. The same applies to McEwan for Moncton, yes there is a single road connecting them with some houses and businesses along it but that does not qualify as contiguous build up area with a population density above 400 per sq km.



If we want to get a bit more technical about it (why not!) lets look at the area a bit closer, this "gap" is roughly 6 km/2 and contains about 100 houses, lets generously assume 3 people per house giving us 300 people in 6 km/2 which is a density of 50 per km/2 well below the threshold.



All this being said there are still some sketchy looking connections that exist like between Saint John and GBW which makes the cut because there is just enough depth to the housing all along the waterfront. Also in Fredericton McLeod Hill in the north is included when there is some pretty sparse dividing space there too.

[KnoxfordGuy]

CBC news reporting that Moncton and Fredericton rank high on housing starts.

Moncton ranks 11th and Fredericton 14th out of 100 cities across Canada between 2018 and 2024. Saint John was ranked 79th. The link to their methodology is in the news story.

Story:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/moncton-fredericton-housing-starts-1.7389258

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

Thanks for the feedback, and to clarify a bit:

- POPCTR must be a place with over 1000 population and a density of 400 people per square kilometer.
- Airports land is also included for some reason provided it doesn't drop the number below 400 with it's inclusion. (YFC, YQM and YSJ are all included within their respective POPCTRs leading to some odd looking empty areas).


Regarding your note about the connection between Saint John and Rothesay I would have a different take on that, if you see below the distance between any semblance of "built up" area in the two is more than 2.5 KM and certainly not contiguous. The same applies to McEwan for Moncton, yes there is a single road connecting them with some houses and businesses along it but that does not qualify as contiguous build up area with a population density above 400 per sq km.



If we want to get a bit more technical about it (why not!) lets look at the area a bit closer, this "gap" is roughly 6 km/2 and contains about 100 houses, lets generously assume 3 people per house giving us 300 people in 6 km/2 which is a density of 50 per km/2 well below the threshold.



All this being said there are still some sketchy looking connections that exist like between Saint John and GBW which makes the cut because there is just enough depth to the housing all along the waterfront. Also in Fredericton McLeod Hill in the north is included when there is some pretty sparse dividing space there too.

I appreciate the detail and mapping it out, however as a counterpoint, the character of those marginal/transition areas is important to consider, same with the community on either end. McEwan is a small mobile home area essentially, whereas the KV example is over 25,000 people. The area you highlighted that connects the two has two of the most expensive housing developments in the province in it, is fully lined by houses, a large mosque, a number of businesses, etc. so hardly a break in the fabric of the city.

Admittedly I am biased in this discussion because I have a lot of experience with residents and politicians from KV claiming that they are distinct from Saint John, which I feel undermines our ability to cooperate regionally. The more we can get the two KV towns to consider their role as members of the greater Saint John community - statistically, financially, socially - the better off we'll be.