The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[bridgeoftea]

Awesome to see a NB city leading a statistic like that!

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

4th quarter population numbers for Jan 1st are out. NB the only Atlantic province to see growth with a gain of 1700ish. All others dropped by a few hundred each. The immigration halt is going to make us suffer. Canada grew on par with 4th quarter numbers pre covid.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

Wanted to share the table in case someone was looking for it.

The slowdown is evident in every province for sure. PEI has not had a down quarter for quite some time.

[bingun]

Some Atlantic Canada relevant quotes from the Stats Canada release.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250319/dq250319a-eng.htm

Newfoundland and Labrador (-301 people; -0.1%), Prince Edward Island (-21 people; -0.0%), and Nova Scotia (-49 people; -0.0%), all recorded small population losses from October 1, 2024, to January 1, 2025. These slight declines are attributable to decreases in the number of non-permanent residents, a negative natural increase, fewer new immigrants, and losses (Newfoundland and Labrador, and Prince Edward Island) or smaller gains (Nova Scotia) from interprovincial migration.

Before 2021, it was common for one or all three of these provinces to experience negative quarterly growth, but this has not been the case since the fourth quarter of 2020. These patterns may reflect a return to the trends seen before the start of the pandemic.

There were fewer interprovincial migrants in the fourth quarter of 2024 than in the previous three quarters, the typical pattern for internal migration in Canada. The number of migrants (46,980) in the fourth quarter was also lower than in the fourth quarters of 2021 (59,264), 2022 (63,151) and 2023 (53,309), but similar to pre-pandemic levels.

Alberta (+5,292 migrants) continued to have the largest net gain from other provinces and territories in the fourth quarter of 2024. Nova Scotia (+344), New Brunswick (+252) and Nunavut (+64) were the only other provinces and territories to have net gains.

[bingun]

Last Thursday's Building Permit statistics were interesting but somewhat misleading at first glance. I think the way they report month-over-month permit values does not provide value.

The quote below and the graphic imply that New Brunswick had a poor month, but it is, in fact, just poor in relation to last month's huge values.

Residential building permits for February were rock solid at 152M, the second-highest month since December 2023. Non-residential was poor, but that tends to swing wildly.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250410/dq250410a-eng.htm

British Columbia's multi-family component (-$185.5 million) led the decline, with decreases concentrated in the Vancouver CMA. Quebec (-$131.5 million) and New Brunswick (-$105.4 million) contributed to the residential sector decrease in February, after helping to offset losses in the national residential sector the previous month. Quebec's residential sector decline was driven by the multi-family component (-$107.9 million) and supported by the single-family component (-$23.6 million). New Brunswick's residential sector decrease was led by the multi-family component (-$103.3 million). The decrease in the national residential sector was mitigated by Ontario (+$110.2 million).

[new kid in town]

Haven't seen this discussed yet

N.B. negotiates increased immigration allocation

We will now receive 4,250 permanent resident nominations this year, an increase of 1,500 from the figure announced in February.

Source: 919 The Bend

Some 2,750 additional immigrants could enter and boost the population NB. While we can expect most of them to gravitate to urban centers, the question of course, is which of the three major urban centers will benefit the most?

[bingun]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Haven't seen this discussed yet





Source: 919 The Bend

Some 2,750 additional immigrants could enter and boost the population NB. While we can expect most of them to gravitate to urban centers, the question of course, is which of the three major urban centers will benefit the most?

Health, Education, and Construction roles should be reasonably consistent across the three major municipalities, so I anticipate the existing trend will continue, with Moncton likely taking a slightly larger share than elsewhere. I am curious where they intend to send the asylum seekers. You would assume the large population centres so they have sufficient services, but who knows.

I am not surprised to see a deal being struck, when NL confirmed one a few months ago, I thought NB wouldn't be too far behind. It will be interesting to see if NS and PEI follow suit. However, with unemployment on the rise, the provinces need to be cautious in how they implement this, and I am glad to see that service-based roles, such as restaurant workers, are not currently in scope, as those are often the most contentious.

Q1 population estimates are out on Wednesday morning, will NB buck the trend like they did in Q4, or will all of the Atlantic provinces see increases levelling off?

[KnoxfordGuy]

Good news. Immigration may be a bad word in the large provinces, but in Atlantic Canada it is still absolutely necessary.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Good news. Immigration may be a bad word in the large provinces, but in Atlantic Canada it is still absolutely necessary.

Don't look at the NB Reddit on this topic. 🫣 My Lord. There was thread on Holt negotiating an increase to our immigration allotment a few days ago, and people were just scapegoating immigrants left and right for all of New Brunswick's problems under the sun.

I think it's abundantly clear that we need to keep immigration levels on the rise in NB and Atlantic Canada to sustain and meet our economic growth and development goals. Immigrants are adding far more than they are taking away from the people already here.

I think it's also abundantly clear that provinces like Ontario, BC, Quebec, and Alberta do need to cool off on rising levels of immigration for a while.

I think the bargain here, if the feds are going to continue to agree to these higher allotments, is that the provincial governments of Atlantic Canada should commit to funding a much more ambitious housing strategy, that will dramatically increase the supply of affordable rental housing.

There's no nice way to put this, but Atlantic Canadian provinces have the lowest GDP per capita among the provinces, along with the lowest income levels. We need more government funding and support in addressing these issues of affordability, starting with housing.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by bingun

Q1 population estimates are out on Wednesday morning, will NB buck the trend like they did in Q4, or will all of the Atlantic provinces see increases levelling off?

Ah excited to see the stats. CTV Atlantic interviewed Moncton officials and they were confident we've easily crossed the 100,000 threshold at this point

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Don't look at the NB Reddit on this topic. 🫣 My Lord. There was thread on Holt negotiating an increase to our immigration allotment a few days ago, and people were just scapegoating immigrants left and right for all of New Brunswick's problems under the sun.

Yikes. I'm not surprised though. I asked a question on that subreddit if Moncton should have increased UNB presence and I was thrown vile opposition without any logical counter arguments, and mods promptly locked the thread and banned my account.

Additionally, I find it very ironic the people the most vocal on social media against the COVID vaccine are the same people blaming immigrants for the re-emergence of eradicated diseases like measles, when it is mandatory for immigrants to complete a medical check, which includes vaccinations. Cognitive dissonance is real.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Don't look at the NB Reddit on this topic. 🫣 My Lord. There was thread on Holt negotiating an increase to our immigration allotment a few days ago, and people were just scapegoating immigrants left and right for all of New Brunswick's problems under the sun.

I posted that article, and you are correct that it descended into the swamp pretty quickly in the comments, which is fairly typical for immigration related topics on Reddit.

However, I wouldn't discard every component of pushback and negative feedback on immigration. Youth unemployment is skyrocketing, and people are starting to get fed up of roles that were typically filled by students and young people being dominated by overseas students and work permit holders.

The federal government's position allowing students to work full-time was unhinged, and the justification that there was a labour shortage in minimum-wage positions was disingenuous and a ploy to appease business interests. Nobody can work full-time and study full-time effectively, and it proved that many of those students were only here for the work permit it provided, not for the academic component.

I was very glad to read that, along with this quote increase, the government of NB is not changing the available industries from health, education, and construction. These are industries that have genuine shortages and will benefit from an increased labour pool. They are also typically paid a living wage, allowing those individuals a meaningful chance to settle in the region and contribute to the local economy.

It also discourages those with low-value education and skills from temporarily relocating to the region to attempt to leverage the provincial pathway, only to move away as soon as they have secured their permanent residence.

[DyAm00394]

CMHC released a report for "Housing Starts for May 2025".

Here's the data for "Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over (Metropolitan Areas)".

- Saint John, NB went up +43% in total compared to May 2024.

- Fredericton, NB went up +35% in total compared to May 2024.

- Moncton, NB went down -25% in total compared to May 2024.

- Halifax, NS went up +3% in total compared to May 2024.

- St.John's, NFLD went up +70% in total compared to May 2024.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2025/housing-starts-may-2025

[someone123]

Total housing starts for Jan-May 2025:

Halifax - 2,821
Moncton - 875
St. John's - 318
Fredericton - 280
Saint John - 131

[MonctonRad]

Thanks someone.

This is the problem with statistics. Depending on how the data is presented, it can be misinterpreted in many ways.

At face value, the post previous to yours could be misconstrued as indicating the bottom had fallen out of the Moncton housing market, but, it was presenting the data only in percentage terms, when in actual fact, the absolute numbers shows that Moncton remains (by far) the second most robust housing market in Atlantic Canada.

Conversely, Moncton also uses statistics to make itself look more successful than it actually is. For a number of years now, Moncton has been marketed as either the fastest or second fastest growing city in Canada. While this is true (in percentage terms), Moncton is only the 27th largest CMA in the country and there are many larger CMAs which actually have more rapid population growth than ourselves. We are probably more like the 12th fastest growing CMA in the country (in absolute terms). Still nothing to sneeze at.

[bingun]

Almost no increase in the population size of Canada during the first quarter of 2025

From January 1 to April 1, 2025, the population of Canada increased by 20,107 people (+0.0%) to reach 41,548,787 people. This was the smallest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the population decreased by 1,232 people (-0.0%) in the wake of border restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250618/dq250618a-eng.htm

NL - 545,464 (-115)
PEI - 180,029 (+749)
NS - 1,080,418 (+791)
NB - 859,839 (+876)

[KnoxfordGuy]

The Maritimes, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta were the only province to post gains. Has the Maritimes finally officially turned a page on the stagnant growth a decade ago?

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks someone.

This is the problem with statistics. Depending on how the data is presented, it can be misinterpreted in many ways.

At face value, the post previous to yours could be misconstrued as indicating the bottom had fallen out of the Moncton housing market, but, it was presenting the data only in percentage terms, when in actual fact, the absolute numbers shows that Moncton remains (by far) the second most robust housing market in Atlantic Canada.

Conversely, Moncton also uses statistics to make itself look more successful than it actually is. For a number of years now, Moncton has been marketed as either the fastest or second fastest growing city in Canada. While this is true (in percentage terms), Moncton is only the 27th largest CMA in the country and there are many larger CMAs which actually have more rapid population growth than ourselves. We are probably more like the 12th fastest growing CMA in the country (in absolute terms). Still nothing to sneeze at.

Absolutely! That’s more than the combined totals of Saint John, Fredericton, and St. John. The numbers coming out of Halifax are staggering though. I can’t help but wonder how long that pace can realistically be maintained.

[DyAm00394]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks someone.

This is the problem with statistics. Depending on how the data is presented, it can be misinterpreted in many ways.

At face value, the post previous to yours could be misconstrued as indicating the bottom had fallen out of the Moncton housing market, but, it was presenting the data only in percentage terms, when in actual fact, the absolute numbers shows that Moncton remains (by far) the second most robust housing market in Atlantic Canada.

Conversely, Moncton also uses statistics to make itself look more successful than it actually is. For a number of years now, Moncton has been marketed as either the fastest or second fastest growing city in Canada. While this is true (in percentage terms), Moncton is only the 27th largest CMA in the country and there are many larger CMAs which actually have more rapid population growth than ourselves. We are probably more like the 12th fastest growing CMA in the country (in absolute terms). Still nothing to sneeze at.

AllNewBrunswick currently has a new headline "Housing Starts Rise, But Not In Moncton". That's what lead me to look up this new report. But I agree with what you said, depending on how the data is presented it can be misinterpreted.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by someone123

Total housing starts for Jan-May 2025:

Halifax - 2,821
Moncton - 875
St. John's - 318
Fredericton - 280
Saint John - 131

The Fredericton number does not align with the building permit data that the city released last week which says 452 units have been permitted through the end of May.

Granted, there is a distinction between actual starts and permits issued although from what I can tell once a permit is issued construction begins almost immediately. Perhaps part of the difference can be attributed to the 121-unit building under construction on York Street which had a permit issued for the foundation late last year but the city does not count housing units until the phase two permit is issued which happened in January. Maybe those units counted as 2024 housing starts.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Absolutely! That’s more than the combined totals of Saint John, Fredericton, and St. John.

Honestly quite impressive despite the downturn imo

[someone123]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

The Maritimes, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta were the only province to post gains. Has the Maritimes finally officially turned a page on the stagnant growth a decade ago?

I believe part of what's happening is that there is a larger drop in nonpermanent residents (due to a large number of students, etc. coming in on a temporary basis a few years ago). If this is the case, there's growth in permanent residents and it should pick up once the nonpermanent flows are balanced.