The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Taeolas]

Finally looking at the graphs. (work blocks imgur so I can't see them when I'm usually browsing).

I know putting Woodstock in the Northwest region is classical; but as someone who grew up in Woodstock and has family in the area, I'd argue that it should be transitioned to the Capital region at some point. It's at the very edge of it, but to me that the town has a lot of connections to Freddy. Heading down to the captial is something residents do without a second thoguht; I've got a coworker who lives there and (works from home but comes down to the office at least once a week) and so forth.

It is more complicated in that Woodstock is also the seat of the County and the north central part of the Valley. So that gives it a lot of influence on the villages and smaller towns north of it (Hartland, Perth Andover, Plaster Rock, etc... until you get into Grand Falls' influence zone)

In the end the zone Woodstock lands in doesn't really matter. It doesn't change the fact that it is doing surprising well. Those numbers are impressing me; it feels like the town is sometimes on the verge of stagnating, but not quite. It's good to see it is doing well all thigns considered.


And on a slightly different note, it's also a bit impressive to me that despite being considered a 'rural' province, we have a pretty decent coverage across the entire space. Sure we have a few truly rural areas, but they aren't that big in comparison to our total space. And the inhabited areas all seem to be stabilizing now (even the north)

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I appreciate the detail and mapping it out, however as a counterpoint, the character of those marginal/transition areas is important to consider, same with the community on either end. McEwan is a small mobile home area essentially, whereas the KV example is over 25,000 people. The area you highlighted that connects the two has two of the most expensive housing developments in the province in it, is fully lined by houses, a large mosque, a number of businesses, etc. so hardly a break in the fabric of the city.

Admittedly I am biased in this discussion because I have a lot of experience with residents and politicians from KV claiming that they are distinct from Saint John, which I feel undermines our ability to cooperate regionally. The more we can get the two KV towns to consider their role as members of the greater Saint John community - statistically, financially, socially - the better off we'll be.

Appreciate the feedback darkharbour, and please don't take me wrong, I fully agree that KV and Saint John exist as intrinsically linked Urban and Suburban areas and there should absolutely be more regional cooperation between the two.

That being said for the purpose of this discussion of a POPCTR, a contiguous built up area with consistent population density, I do not agree.

I will present an additional comparison using the GeoNB mapping system which can show us maps of buildings alone with no other visual interference and this helps us see better the built up density of an area.

I will show a few areas below, these are ranked in order of their density and I will slot the area in question (Brookville / Drury Cove) in where it seems to belong.

These images are all at the same scale and each contain roughly the same land area of about 6 - 8 Km2

Remember the line is 400 people per Km2 to be considered part of a POPCTR.

1. Uptown Saint John
This is the most densely built up area in NB
Population density is about 5000 per Km2
This IS included in a POPCTR



2. Central KV
Typical suburban area
Population density is about 700 per Km2
This IS included in a POPCTR



3. Grand Barachois
Developing waterfront rural area on the Northumberland coast
Population density is about 200 per Km2
This is NOT included in a POPCTR



4. Brookville / Drury Cove
Low develpment area between SJ and Rothesay (due to difficult terrain).
Population density is about 50 per Km2
This is NOT included in a POPCTR



5. Durham Bridge
Rural area north of Fredericton
Population density is about 25per Km2
This is NOT included in a POPCTR



I think the simple fact that the entirety of Uptown SJ would fit inside this transition area of Brookville / Drury Cove should be proof enough that a scattering of about 100 buildings over that same land area is not "built up" . I'm thinking part of the confusion comes from the sense "on the ground" that they are linked because people tend to drive 80 - 90 on Rothesay Ave in this section therefore our sense of time and space is a bit warped in a way, Rothesay Ave itself has a decent level of buildings especially when driving by at speed, and this gives the impression of more of a link, but true density is more than one street deep.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Just for fun and to appease my own desire for "data" haha, here are the extremely hypothetical (due to map changes and population absorption by some cities) current populations of Atlantic Canada's biggest CMA populations and Charlottetown as an honorary member as of December 2024 extrapolated from the CMA populations estimates from Stats Can for July 2023. Don't come at me. We are all stats nerds here

December 2024 CMA and CA population numbers:

Halifax 545,711

St. John's 242,980

Moncton 193,971

Saint John 141,510

Fredericton 125,059

Charlottetown (CA) 96,500

Population Clock Atlantic Canada population 2,681,577

[MonctonRad]

Good stuff!

Moncton at 200k by 2026 (at the latest) - I say YES!!!

The way traffic is getting out of control in the city, It feels like 200k right now.

Apparently Codiac Transpo utilization is increasingly exponential. Busses on some routes are standing room only now. The city is adding five new busses next year (one electric). I presume the electric bus is being used for testing purposes.

[KnoxfordGuy]

At these growth patterns, Moncton will take over St. John's as Atlantic Canada's Second City in a generation or less.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The way traffic is getting out of control in the city, It feels like 200k right now.

Apparently Codiac Transpo utilization is increasingly exponential. Busses on some routes are standing room only now. The city is adding five new busses next year (one electric). I presume the electric bus is being used for testing purposes.

Indeed! I particularly hate the all-way Stop intersections because people can't take a mental note of when they should proceed. And the bus routes are INSANE--3 years ago, the driver would call out a passenger for not taking a seat while the bus is moving lol.

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Good stuff!

Moncton at 200k by 2026 (at the latest) - I say YES!!!

The way traffic is getting out of control in the city, It feels like 200k right now.

Apparently Codiac Transpo utilization is increasingly exponential. Busses on some routes are standing room only now. The city is adding five new busses next year (one electric). I presume the electric bus is being used for testing purposes.

There was an article on Radio-Canada a couple of weeks ago stating that ridership on Codiac Transpo increased 34% over last year!

[someone123]

The Halifax-Moncton corridor must be nearing 1 million people. The 102 corridor is likely over 600,000 people. This would be a pretty good rail corridor with many destinations and large portions at each end being in the commuter sheds of the respective cities; upgrading it gives you intercity plus commuter rail. Plus it is in the middle of the region so transport in this area can be useful to other parts of the region (PEI or CB buses connect up to rail along TCH corridor).

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by someone123

The Halifax-Moncton corridor must be nearing 1 million people. The 102 corridor is likely over 600,000 people. This would be a pretty good rail corridor with many destinations and large portions at each end being in the commuter sheds of the respective cities; upgrading it gives you intercity plus commuter rail. Plus it is in the middle of the region so transport in this area can be useful to other parts of the region (PEI or CB buses connect up to rail along TCH corridor).

What would the stops theoretically be? Existing VIA stations in Moncton, Truro, and Halifax, plus the Halifax airport? There's a fine line to tread between efficient travel and number of stops. Amherst AND Sackville NB would be a bit much... and what about Bedford, Sackville NS, the Moncton airport, and so on? Maybe a city centre express just going from downtown Halifax to Stanfield to Truro to Moncton would be a good start. Could always add infill from there if justified. Would only need a bus shuttle down what I believe is the Route 212 extension for direct rail-to-airport connectivity.

You'd get into the same thing going further southeast. Between Moncton and SJ is, by Maritimes standards, fairly populated. You certainly couldn't stop in every town. A KV stop would be close to Saint John, but Hampton and Sussex are small. And Petitcodiac/Salisbury are even smaller.

There's no point in thinking of extending further in any direction unless Amtrak decides to start servicing Calais. Congrats once again to Fredericton and much of rural NS for 'rails to trails.'

[Taeolas]

SJ to Halifax train service is pretty much a no brainer nowadays, if we could only get the governments on board to help kick it off the ground.

I'd envision a 3x daily service in each direction, maybe 4x with 2 routes flagged as "Express" routes with minimal stops and the other 2 being more milk runs with more stops along the way.

Sackville NB would be a nobrainer stop, to service the University there and pull Sackville more into Moncton's commuter watershed.

Not that Moncton needs an LRT system now, but having this intercity rail line would set up some groundwork for when Moncton does get big enough to warrant it. (Halifax seems to be talking seriously about an LRT line now, which an intercity service would dovetail nicely with)

Once we get that line going and going strongly, then we can look to extend it, and maybe even consider doing some Trails to Rails deconversions to get Freddy back on the rail network.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

SJ to Halifax train service is pretty much a no brainer nowadays, if we could only get the governments on board to help kick it off the ground.

I'd envision a 3x daily service in each direction, maybe 4x with 2 routes flagged as "Express" routes with minimal stops and the other 2 being more milk runs with more stops along the way.

Sackville NB would be a nobrainer stop, to service the University there and pull Sackville more into Moncton's commuter watershed.

Not that Moncton needs an LRT system now, but having this intercity rail line would set up some groundwork for when Moncton does get big enough to warrant it. (Halifax seems to be talking seriously about an LRT line now, which an intercity service would dovetail nicely with)

Once we get that line going and going strongly, then we can look to extend it, and maybe even consider doing some Trails to Rails deconversions to get Freddy back on the rail network.

The Fredericton thing is... it would be a spur, no matter what. No freight justification. Would you have it come from the existing CN line in northern York down to the Nashwaaksis area on the old ROW, connecting to Moncton? Or from NBSR in Fredericton Junction up to, like, Brunswick and University, also on an old ROW? I presume the northern route would be more plausible and politically palatable-- capital to largest metro and so on. No earthly way a rail bridge goes across the river in Fredericton to form a loop with no commercial justification.

Improved SJ-Fredericton transport should prioritize highway improvements for a number of reasons, namely PSJ-TCH connectivity.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The Fredericton thing is... it would be a spur, no matter what. No freight justification. Would you have it come from the existing CN line in northern York down to the Nashwaaksis area on the old ROW, connecting to Moncton? Or from NBSR in Fredericton Junction up to, like, Brunswick and University, also on an old ROW? I presume the northern route would be more plausible and politically palatable-- capital to largest metro and so on. No earthly way a rail bridge goes across the river in Fredericton to form a loop with no commercial justification.

Improved SJ-Fredericton transport should prioritize highway improvements for a number of reasons, namely PSJ-TCH connectivity.

Yeah I think rail in Fredericton is a non-starter, the population and commercial/industrial needs cannot possibly justify the cost of adding lines and right-of-ways back into the city.

Best to stick to advocating for the re-establishment of passenger service on existing lines to Moncton+Halifax+SJ, and then improving the highway and bus services to Fredericton.

[Taeolas]

A Freddy rail connection wouldn't happen until Maritime Rail Service is well established between SJ-Mon-Hal. So late 30's at an absolute blindingly fast case scenario; more like late 50's realistically speaking.

By then they can look at what the situation is, and figure out where/how best to route it. A route from Freddy Downtown or Freddy Uptown (Prospect/Corbett area) to Oromocto would probably be the main focus, and from there it could blaze a route to Moncton. Or more likely a route to Sussex that continues to Moncton and back.

[adamuptownsj]

I just couldn't imagine a new rail bed or new St. John River crossing for passenger rail. Even crossing the Oromocto River wouldn't be cheap. The existing ROW would pass through the airport! There's basically no non-citizen-activist obstructions and there are mostly existing rail beds following the Nashwaaksis-CN or UNB area-NBSW ROWs.

Anyway, Moncton-Sackville-Truro-Halifax would be the closest thing to feasible right now. Would just need one new stop near Stanfield if desired. Extending to Saint John and perhaps somewhere in between, if warranted, wouldn't be complicated from there.

Shediac would be one difficult spur to build North of Route 15. Stupid easy south of it, but that hardly gets you into town.

[Bishop2047]

https://www.unb.ca/nbirdt/research/publi...tion_demographic_2023_pub_ecr_112024.pdf


New Brunswick Population and Demographic Counts for 2023 from UNB. These are nice reports, and worth sharing.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Shediac would be one difficult spur to build North of Route 15. Stupid easy south of it, but that hardly gets you into town.

There's an existing ROW south of the 15, but it has been converted to a trail.

The ROW went to a station in downtown Shediac and then terminated in Pointe du Chene. This is no longer possible. If they were ever to reopen this spur, I don't know where they would put the station.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

What would the stops theoretically be? Existing VIA stations in Moncton, Truro, and Halifax, plus the Halifax airport? There's a fine line to tread between efficient travel and number of stops. Amherst AND Sackville NB would be a bit much... and what about Bedford, Sackville NS, the Moncton airport, and so on? Maybe a city centre express just going from downtown Halifax to Stanfield to Truro to Moncton would be a good start.

I am not sure but I don't think it would be that crazy to have 7 or 8 stops and I think a train would be very popular for getting between Bedford and Halifax, although there will also be a ferry. The ferry makes a service like this more valuable rather than less valuable. A train service like this would have local feeder bus routes and so on.

In the long run for Halifax if it were up to me at this point I'd probably build an intermodal terminal around Mumford with regional rail, LRT, and bus and add in a spur to the airport. I don't believe that a heavy rail connection from the South End terminal to downtown will happen and nothing happened with the northern rail ROW and Cogswell. FWIW I feel like the provinces should get involved and NS and NB should offer to pay to upgrade/twin/re-twin the rail line in exchange for passenger rail rights. This would help both the freight service (avoiding examples like that tiny washed out bridge) and regional transit.

[MonctonRad]

Statistics Canada official quarterly population estimates are out (Q4 2023-Q4 2024)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

Nova Scotia: 1,064,297 -> 1,076,874 (+12,077)
New Brunswick: 840,578 -> 857,381 (+16,803)
Newfoundland: 541,000 -> 545,880 (+4,880)
Prince Edward Island: 175,871 -> 179,301 (+3,430)

Note that these numbers are different from the population clock (different methodology, more accurate).

Growth rates seem to be slowing. NB currently outgrowing NS (both in relative and absolute terms).

[Taeolas]

Figure a consistent growth of 15k/year, NB will crack 1M in about 10 years at this rate. We might surprise and crack it in 7-8 years instead, but I figure 10 years is a safe bet with immigration rates slowing and stuff.

[q12]

People seem to be leaving New Brunswick. New Brunswick lost 1,378 to interprovincial migration (mostly to Quebec) in the third quarter.

The third quarter saw 80,538 interprovincial migrants in Canada, a 10.1% decrease from the third quarter of 2023 (89,559 migrants). This is closer to the third quarter levels seen from 2009 to 2019 (which ranged from 71,976 to 89,862 migrants) and could mark a return to pre-pandemic levels of interprovincial migration.

Most provinces and territories had net losses in their exchanges with other provinces or territories in the third quarter of 2024, except for Alberta (+10,810), Nova Scotia (+359), the Northwest Territories (+63) and Quebec (+18).

The third quarter also marked the first time Newfoundland and Labrador (-471) lost people to other provinces and territories since the third quarter of 2020 and the first time that New Brunswick (-1,378) lost people to interprovincial migration since the fourth quarter of 2019. This was the largest net population loss to interprovincial migration for New Brunswick since the third quarter of 2006, partly because of higher than usual losses in its exchanges with Quebec (-920).

Quebec (+18 in the third quarter of 2024) has gained from interprovincial migration in seven quarters since the third quarter of 1971. The province's last gains were in the second quarter of 2021 (+8) and in the fourth quarter of 2009 (+15). Quebec had a net gain of 920 people in its exchanges with New Brunswick and a net loss of 902 people in its exchanges with Ontario in the third quarter of 2024.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...217c-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=4098-1&indgeo=0



3rd Quarter
Nova Scotia +3,302
New Brunswick +3,026
P.E.I. +751
Newfoundland and Labrador + 633