Some math:
Current cost of a monthly pass $138.50.
Predicted cost to discount passes to $95 is $8M-$10M – so I’ll use the $10M
Customer saving per pass is $43.50, for each of 12 months
Thus, an estimated 19,000 monthly passes will get the discount.
Total monthly ridership from pass-holders (assuming 40 rides/month) is about 760,000.
Given an average of 6.1 million rides/month, pass-rides account for 12.5%; or 1-in-8 rides.
That number might seem shocking – that only about 1 on 8 rides is currently paid for with a monthly pass – but with a large number of people working less than 5 days a week in an out-of-home office, it is hard for them to justify buying a monthly pass. Well, a monthly pass that is priced by assuming that people will make 34, or more, trips per month – which represents a 15% discount from 40 trips. Even taking transit to work 4 days a week would run so close to that 34-trip-break-even (4-days x 2-trips/day x 4-weeks = 32) that I expect that many would not buy a pass.
OC Transpo has been looking into creating a pass that is more tailored to hybrid workers. WAY BACK in early September of 2023, OC Transpo asked the Transit Committee for the go-ahead to implement such a fare structure.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/hybrid-work-ottawa-oc-transpo-fare-pass-1.6958416
Apparently, nothing moved ahead.
So, now the Mayor is jumping on the band wagon and promising a lower price for a monthly transit pass – FOR 1 YEAR ONLY. If the Mayor’s proposed price offered was a 15% discount (as the current pass price is supposed to be), then a pass based on an assumed 4-day weekly commute would be $111. Based on a 3-day in-office week, the price would be $83. The Mayor’s chosen price of $95 falls about mid-point; or about 3.5 days a week in the office.
Just a note about ridership being ‘stuck’ at about 70% of pre-CoViD-19 ridership: If a large portion of transit ridership was only using transit for 3-of-5 (or 60%) of the rides they used to take, it should be no surprise that overall ridership was down and not rebounding further. With the move to 4 days per week in the office, 80% of the previous trips should be back (assuming few permanent switches away from transit).
As for the Mayor’s ‘pledge’, the saved money from an uploaded LRT (IF – and I think that it is a BIG ‘IF’ – that happens) would be better spent on transit infrastructure. Take that $85M/y and put it into the Baseline BRT, and Carling Bus Lanes, and any other transit improvement that he has been sitting on because he has been waiting for someone else to pay for it.
OFF-TOPIC: If the Baseline BRT and Carling Bus Lanes ever happen, during the digging, drop LARGE culverts under the length of the roads to act as Stormwater storage – similar to the CSST – then gradually process that (contaminated) water through the R.O.Pickard Environmental Centre.
Threaded Mode