Originally Posted by Richard Eade
I agree that ‘Let it Slide’ Sutcliffe has been a disaster as a Mayor. If he had taken even a quarter of the energy that he devoted to complaining that ‘The World Is Not Fair To Ottawa’, and put it into actually developing an improved vision for the city, and begun working toward that, we would be far better off. You are right, J.OT13, that ‘Think Smaller’ Sutcliffe actually squandered virtually every project that was left in the planning stage by ‘Approve It – But Spend No Money On It’ Watson.
You dismiss Lawson as a fringe candidate, but I’m not sure that he will be ignored by many people. I think that people are (rightly) fed up with watching the city and the services that the municipal government provides degrade toward the point of uselessness. People are getting fed up with the state of the roads, and the public transit system. They are feeling less safe when they are out and about in the city – that is, if their SUV has not been stolen out of their driveway.
People are looking for someone who has a plan to ‘fix’ the problems. By claiming that the Express Buses will be brought back, Lawson is tapping into the ‘It used to be MUCH better; so we should just return to the past’ sentiment. It doesn’t matter if it would actually be possible to bring back Express Buses – which it isn’t. People don’t necessarily want to hear the truth; they want to hear that someone is going to make changes. They want to hear of things that sound as if they might be an improvement over the dysfunctional status quo.
This is what Rob Ford did. This is what Trump did. This is what Poilievre tried to do. They accentuate the current negatives and declare that they have a solution that is fundamentally different from what is happening. They claim that they are different and will, therefore, do things differently. What they claim that they will do doesn’t have to be realistic. It needs to be different, and, on the surface – without scratching beneath that surface – appear to be a solution. (And, as Saravanamuttoo has evidently noticed, it helps if the idea fits into a short, catchy-sounding, slogan; like ‘Buck a Ride’.)
All that said, I think that Ottawa’s voters are upset by what they are experiencing, but to conservative to want radical change. There will be votes for bigger change, but probably not more than 17%, split between Saravanamuttoo and Lawson. Leiper has name recognition, and is somewhat more progressive than Sutcliffe, but is still a politician, so he will get more urban votes. However, the ‘bike-hating’ suburbanites, who don’t drive ‘into the city’, and those wanting to buy a cheap McMansion in the suburbs, will vote for ‘Status Quo’ Sutcliffe.
I expect that the outcome of the election will be something like Sutcliffe 42%; Leiper 38%; Saravanamuttoo 10%; Lawson 7%; Other 3%. And the voter turnout will be quite low, at about 40%. (For reference, 2022 election results: Sutcliffe 51.37%; McKenney 37.88%; Chiarelli 5.08%; Kadri 2.38%. With a voter turnout of 43.79%.)
I fear that we can count on continued erosion of the city for the next term of Council. If the consumer price index flags inflation as 3%, then we will get a tax increase of 2%-2.5% - under the banner of ‘Keeping Things Affordable’. It won’t matter that the City’s inflation rate is well above the consumer’s rate. And, of course, ‘Silver Bullet’ Sutcliffe will promise to find a bunch more ‘efficiencies’ (that somehow got missed during his first term) and be counting on upper levels of government to gladly swoop in and cover any operating deficit.
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