2026 Ottawa Municipal Election

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Richard Eade

I agree that ‘Let it Slide’ Sutcliffe has been a disaster as a Mayor. If he had taken even a quarter of the energy that he devoted to complaining that ‘The World Is Not Fair To Ottawa’, and put it into actually developing an improved vision for the city, and begun working toward that, we would be far better off. You are right, J.OT13, that ‘Think Smaller’ Sutcliffe actually squandered virtually every project that was left in the planning stage by ‘Approve It – But Spend No Money On It’ Watson.

You dismiss Lawson as a fringe candidate, but I’m not sure that he will be ignored by many people. I think that people are (rightly) fed up with watching the city and the services that the municipal government provides degrade toward the point of uselessness. People are getting fed up with the state of the roads, and the public transit system. They are feeling less safe when they are out and about in the city – that is, if their SUV has not been stolen out of their driveway.

People are looking for someone who has a plan to ‘fix’ the problems. By claiming that the Express Buses will be brought back, Lawson is tapping into the ‘It used to be MUCH better; so we should just return to the past’ sentiment. It doesn’t matter if it would actually be possible to bring back Express Buses – which it isn’t. People don’t necessarily want to hear the truth; they want to hear that someone is going to make changes. They want to hear of things that sound as if they might be an improvement over the dysfunctional status quo.

This is what Rob Ford did. This is what Trump did. This is what Poilievre tried to do. They accentuate the current negatives and declare that they have a solution that is fundamentally different from what is happening. They claim that they are different and will, therefore, do things differently. What they claim that they will do doesn’t have to be realistic. It needs to be different, and, on the surface – without scratching beneath that surface – appear to be a solution. (And, as Saravanamuttoo has evidently noticed, it helps if the idea fits into a short, catchy-sounding, slogan; like ‘Buck a Ride’.)

All that said, I think that Ottawa’s voters are upset by what they are experiencing, but to conservative to want radical change. There will be votes for bigger change, but probably not more than 17%, split between Saravanamuttoo and Lawson. Leiper has name recognition, and is somewhat more progressive than Sutcliffe, but is still a politician, so he will get more urban votes. However, the ‘bike-hating’ suburbanites, who don’t drive ‘into the city’, and those wanting to buy a cheap McMansion in the suburbs, will vote for ‘Status Quo’ Sutcliffe.

I expect that the outcome of the election will be something like Sutcliffe 42%; Leiper 38%; Saravanamuttoo 10%; Lawson 7%; Other 3%. And the voter turnout will be quite low, at about 40%. (For reference, 2022 election results: Sutcliffe 51.37%; McKenney 37.88%; Chiarelli 5.08%; Kadri 2.38%. With a voter turnout of 43.79%.)

I fear that we can count on continued erosion of the city for the next term of Council. If the consumer price index flags inflation as 3%, then we will get a tax increase of 2%-2.5% - under the banner of ‘Keeping Things Affordable’. It won’t matter that the City’s inflation rate is well above the consumer’s rate. And, of course, ‘Silver Bullet’ Sutcliffe will promise to find a bunch more ‘efficiencies’ (that somehow got missed during his first term) and be counting on upper levels of government to gladly swoop in and cover any operating deficit.

Excellent analysis.

[qprcanada]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Excellent analysis.

The city has had three right of centre mayors in succession who have kept taxes rate increases below the rate of inflation and the city has suffered as a result. The city is in worse shape than it was previously.

Infrastructure is decaying especially in the old City of Ottawa where older infrastructure needs renewing or replacement.

Transportation infrastructure planning has suffered the most, Line 1 has been built and Stage 2 will eventually open but definitive plans for Stage 3, Carling, Baseline, a ring road, Bank St have not materialized.

In order for the city to grow these issues need to be addressed.

A mayor and council with some vision and ambition are required.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by qprcanada

The city has had three right of centre mayors in succession who have kept taxes rate increases below the rate of inflation and the city has suffered as a result. The city is in worse shape than it was previously.

Infrastructure is decaying especially in the old City of Ottawa where older infrastructure needs renewing or replacement.

Transportation infrastructure planning has suffered the most, Line 1 has been built and Stage 2 will eventually open but definitive plans for Stage 3, Carling, Baseline, a ring road, Bank St have not materialized.

In order for the city to grow these issues need to be addressed.

A mayor and council with some vision and ambition are required.

Yeah the voters pretty definitevely want lower taxes rather than throw some money at a few more bus routes and more complete streets. I wonder do Toronto rate payers feel like the 9% increase changed their lives for the better? Certainly we are accumulating some issues from underfunding but you can't run on I will increase taxes 5% instead of 2.5% and you won't see any benefits but in 10 years we won't be in such a big hole.

There is no appetite at all for a 20% transit increase to actually improve service. Despite the claims that will make traffic better most of us know it gets hardly any cars off the road and thus benefits the small minority who commute by transit most of whom don't pay taxes. (Well a huge increase in taxes could see it passed on in a rent increase)

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There is no appetite at all for a 20% transit increase to actually improve service. Despite the claims that will make traffic better most of us know it gets hardly any cars off the road and thus benefits the small minority who commute by transit most of whom don't pay taxes. (Well a huge increase in taxes could see it passed on in a rent increase)

Who doesn't pay taxes? Even if you don't own a house, you still pay taxes. Landlords charge the taxes to their tenants through rent. They don't just charge tenants enough to cover the mortgage and maintenance while keeping taxes off the price out of the goodness of their hearts.

And I wouldn't call transit riders a "small minority". Prior to the pandemic, about 15% of commuters took transit, and about 50% of downtown commuters. A good chunk of that has been lost due to, yes, issues with the O-Train, but also Sutcliffe's bus and train service cuts.

Better transit and cycling is absolutely the better way to decrease congestion. Wider roads only makes things worse.

[golfguy9]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Who doesn't pay taxes? Even if you don't own a house, you still pay taxes. Landlords charge the taxes to their tenants through rent. They don't just charge tenants enough to cover the mortgage and maintenance while keeping taxes off the price out of the goodness of their hearts.

And I wouldn't call transit riders a "small minority". Prior to the pandemic, about 15% of commuters took transit, and about 50% of downtown commuters. A good chunk of that has been lost due to, yes, issues with the O-Train, but also Sutcliffe's bus and train service cuts.

Better transit and cycling is absolutely the better way to decrease congestion. Wider roads only makes things worse.

I disagree. My hypothesis is that most commuters in this city have gotten used to the luxury of commuting by car post covid and would never return to taking transit even if service was better. I could be wrong but I think it's too far gone to recover.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by golfguy9

I disagree. My hypothesis is that most commuters in this city have gotten used to the luxury of commuting by car post covid and would never return to taking transit even if service was better. I could be wrong but I think it's too far gone to recover.

People are constantly complaining about congestion and the cost/lack of parking Downtown (and DND Nortel Campus). Good transit is the solution to all these problems.

[rocketphish]

Is the ballot question: 'Do we need a new mayor?'
The challengers must persuade the public that Ottawa needs a different mayor and that they'll do a better job than Mark Sutcliffe.

By Randall Denley, Ottawa Citizen
Published Jul 06, 2026 | Last updated 9 hours ago

Somewhat against expectations, Ottawa could be looking at an interesting mayoral race this fall.

Mayor Mark Sutcliffe will be tough to beat, but he has three serious challengers. Veteran councillor Jeff Leiper, homebuilder Alex Lawson and economist Neil Saravanamuttoo all have substantive policies and pointed critiques of how things have gone at City Hall during Sutcliffe’s tenure.

Each of the three faces twin challenges, persuading the public that Ottawa needs a different mayor and that they are likely to do a better job than Sutcliffe.

The mayor is certainly starting from a position of strength. He took just over 51 per cent of the vote in the 2022 election and he has largely delivered what he promised. Tax increases have been reasonable, the police have increased in numbers, road repair spending has doubled, and OC Transpo seems finally to be moving in a better direction, if ever so slowly. Sutcliffe has also shown leadership, turning a rancorous council into one that works together more collegially.

These are not small accomplishments and politicians who deliver on their promises are generally worthy of re-election.

Despite that, an early poll indicates a tight race. A June 19 poll by Liaison Strategies showed Sutcliffe in front with 38 per cent support from decided and leaning voters, Leiper not far behind at 31 per cent, newcomer Lawson at a surprising 21 per cent and Saravanamuttoo at eight per cent.

It’s not surprising to see that Leiper has significant support. The affable three-term councillor is the standard bearer for the city’s NDP-left Liberal voters. Councillor Catherine McKenney played the same role four years ago, taking just under 38 per cent of the vote.

The dynamic could be different this time. In 2022, it was essentially a two-person race with only Sutcliffe and McKenney getting double-digit support. The campaign is in its early stages, but if Saravanamuttoo stays in the race and gains support, he will certainly hurt Leiper’s chances.

It’s a bit difficult to know what to make of Lawson’s early poll numbers. He’s an outspoken and likable guy, but he started with no public profile. To his credit, Lawson has worked hard to get on top of the issues, but he’s more likely to be a spoiler than a winner.

If Lawson can attract a significant number of small-c conservative voters on election day, it will make things difficult for Sutcliffe.

It’s hard to predict the outcome of this fall’s vote if the race becomes something other than a referendum on Sutcliffe’s generally strong performance. Taxes are the wild card.

Sutcliffe is sure to promise four more years of modest taxes increases. It’s a formula that has worked for Ottawa mayors for a very long time. Unfortunately, politically acceptable tax increases have left much city infrastructure in poor shape. Over the next 10 years, there is a $3.8 billion gap between infrastructure needs and planned spending.

Like much of what Sutcliffe has had to contend with, this is an inherited problem. Previous councils turned a blind eye, but under Sutcliffe tax-spending on capital needs increased by 44 per cent. It’s still not enough.

Council recently adopted a two-year plan to nibble away at the capital gap, but a long-term solution is required. A tax levy strictly for infrastructure is one possibility. Some argue that a levy is supportable because it will go only to infrastructure, but it’s still a charge on top of property taxes.

Leiper has spoken positively about the idea of a levy but hasn’t committed to it yet. It would be a bold move and one that could be portrayed as the responsible way to handle a significant problem.

The Liaison Strategy poll also indicates underlying voter dissatisfaction with Sutcliffe. His approval rating is 41 per cent but 56 per cent disapprove and only 26 per cent of those polled say the city is moving in the right direction.

If one of the three challengers can tap into that dissatisfaction, the mayor could have a problem.


Randall Denley is an Ottawa journalist and author. Contact him at [email protected]

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/do-we-need-a-new-mayor

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Who doesn't pay taxes? Even if you don't own a house, you still pay taxes. Landlords charge the taxes to their tenants through rent. They don't just charge tenants enough to cover the mortgage and maintenance while keeping taxes off the price out of the goodness of their hearts.

And I wouldn't call transit riders a "small minority". Prior to the pandemic, about 15% of commuters took transit, and about 50% of downtown commuters. A good chunk of that has been lost due to, yes, issues with the O-Train, but also Sutcliffe's bus and train service cuts.

Better transit and cycling is absolutely the better way to decrease congestion. Wider roads only makes things worse.

15% isn't a small minority? Indirect taxes sure but rent is controlled for most renters and the clearing price is going to change very little for rent based on tax rates. Regardless the 15% can all agree to a big tax increase to improve transit service and it isn't going to win elections.

The idea cylcling infrastructure is going to decrease congestion is laughable. Yes rapid transit can get people out of cars but increasing bus frequency or any other realistic options we are looking at are very marginal at best. LRT got support when people imagined all their neighbours taking it to improve their driving commute. The loss of one seat busses certainly caused some to flee transit but it was as much about being in the office less and being willing to pay for a few days of massive increase in convenience. The time savings to driving and paying $20 a day for parking is easy math from almost anywhere outside (and a lot of places inside) the greenbelt.

Originally Posted by golfguy9

I disagree. My hypothesis is that most commuters in this city have gotten used to the luxury of commuting by car post covid and would never return to taking transit even if service was better. I could be wrong but I think it's too far gone to recover.

I mean it's not really too far gone we are talking about like less than 10% of commuters who abandoned transit. But 100% you are right barring a fast efficient one seat journey near both origin and workplace. (impossible with our development pattern)

Originally Posted by J.OT13

People are constantly complaining about congestion and the cost/lack of parking Downtown (and DND Nortel Campus). Good transit is the solution to all these problems.

For DND it's really not. It's building a parking garage.

We could have shuttles from the LRT every 2 minutes. Or even have moved Moodie Station to be under the Campus and it's still a hour minimum from the most convenient to a bus locations in Orleans. Closer to 90 minutes for many.

Downtown should have good commuting for many but you can increase the transit budget by 20% and not make a noticeable difference for most. Those of us who actually pay a property tax bill will notice it though.