Canadian Federal Election

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Would you be my friend, Hacky?

(you don't mind that I call you Hacky, do you?)

back down from the name calling and chill it

that goes for everyone


theres eco chambers on both sides of this idiodic political mess atm.

the cons have doubled down on idiocy rhitoric thats driven allot of us from wanting to even look at them carny scares but has a resume thats rare to venture into politcs. ndp made us feel cold plp will vote and they better we got forengn interferace happening from the us when comes to alberta and they have been since pier was pm anyhow trump screwed up what amaricas been working on for decades

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 42.5%, 189 seats
CPC - 38.7%, 125 seats
BLQ - 6.0%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.6%, 5 seats
GRN - 2.2%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.4%, 0 seats

LPC is now down 15 seats from there max, but, still well within majority territory. I think time has run out for the CPC, especially given the heavy turnout at the advance polls.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I predicted that the NDP would win 7 seats with 2 of them being in Manitoba.

I looked at each current NDP riding, how well the candidate did before but the main factor was how well the NDP candidate is liked by constituents based on his/her name over party. I've seen some predictions that no NDP candidate will win East of Manitoba. A definite possibility but my guess is one in Ontario and one in Quebec. I'm curious to see if any NDP candidate gets 40% or more of the votes in any riding.

Not sure who your 1 NDP is in Ontario but I'm not ready to say the incumbent in London Fanshawe is going to get defeated yet. Not sure who the polling is done by that smart voting uses, but it's only showing her down by 2 points to an unknown Liberal candidate. The incumbent has been in office since 2019 and her mother held the riding back to 2006 before that (and was also an MPP in the Bob Rae governemnt. The family name runs strong there. The Liberal candidate I sense was nominated sometime last year and if people thought this was going to be a real race, more well known people would have sought that nomination, maybe even a city councillor or former MPP. Of course the local newspaper (part of Postmedia) is suggesting the Lib and NDP could split the vote and give the CPC the win, but considering the Conservative support is mid 20s and dropping I would be shocked to see that happen.

[MonctonRad]

• Video Link

I firmly believe the rumours of a Carney inspired bond market manipulation to get Trump to back down of tariffs. This is the sort of creative thinking we need in what is left of the free world to combat Trumpian fascism.

Carney is very well known on the world stage, and, as the former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada has the credibility necessary to positively influence other world leaders to do the right thing.

FDR (Great Depression) and Churchill (WW-2) were men of their times. I sincerely think Carney could be similar.

[LeadingEdgeBoomer]

PPC - 1.4%, 0 seats

PPC represents the far right. If the party was not on the ballot one would think that far right voters would have little choice but vote CPC. Adding 1.4% more of the voters would could help the CPC win some close seats. The PPC is not helping the conservative cause.

[casper]

Originally Posted by LeadingEdgeBoomer

PPC - 1.4%, 0 seats

PPC represents the far right. If the party was not on the ballot one would think that far right voters would have little choice but vote CPC. Adding 1.4% more of the voters would could help the CPC win some close seats. The PPC is not helping the conservative cause.

Normally the PPC is helpful to the conservative cause. It provides a home for the extreme element of the right away from the mainstream CPC. That would permit the CPC to reject those views. The only problem is the current leader of the CPC is trying to go after that extreme vote as well and in doing so is adopting some shocking policies.

As an aside Hedy Fry is posting on facebook that while doing door knocking she is running into people who have been told by the Conservative candidate that the liberals plan to legalize opioids and fentanyl. She is setting the record straight that statement is false.

It would be good if the conservatives were sticking to telling voters about their policies instead of inventing Liberal polices that don't exist.

[Marshsparrow]

My socials today full of Conservatives threatening to leave Canada or move to Alberta and separate or speculating that Elections Canada is trying to rig the election. Is there a similar narrative on the left?

Also watched this. It's actually pretty sad to see the people that show up to taunt people - is there a similar group on the left that do this at CPC events?

And what is the story on this Carmya person - do people on the left and right both not like her?

The 'Brantford Boomer' is going viral — what really happened?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brantford-boomer-meme-context-1.7518905

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Canada is done as a nation, if we elect Poilievre and the Conservatives. Say goodbye to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. If one wants to see how Canada will look under Poilievre's watch, spend a year in Alberta under the CPC.

The FBI just arrested a Circuit Court Judge for no reason, and now she sits in a prison, without any charges announced. This is headed our way, if the Conservatives attain power.

A vote for Poilievre is a vote for fascism.
A vote for Carney is a vote for Democracy.

Choose wisely, my fellow Canadians.

This is so offensive I hardly know where to start.

You are stating that only the Liberals understand democracy and voting for PP is the equivalent of voting for Hitler, Mussolini, or Franco. This clearly exemplifies how you know very little about either democracy or fascism.

You are also stating that only Carney is a vote for democracy so I guess the 58% of Canadians who won't vote Liberal are simply fascists? You have a shockingly low opinion of Canadians. I voted Liberal ONLY because I feel Carney is the right man at the right time and certainly not because PP is some form of fascist and will dismantle our democracy.

I also find it very odd that some people think PP and the Tories are just Maple Leaf MAGAs. The MAGA and Trump mentality that is plaguing the US has been the downfall of the Conservatives. The Liberals have benefitted greatly by Trump's election..........Trump has turned out to be the Carney's best friend and Poilievre's greatest foe. The reality is that the Liberals are thanking the Gods for their good fortune of the Americans being stupid enough to vote Trump and are asking those Gods what they did to curry such favour while The Tories are asking what they have done to incur their wrath.

[bodaggin]

I ran population per riding numbers. The higher the number, the less voice that province gets in Ottawa.

Look at the astounding disparity. I understand the territories, they're tiny. But look at PEI. It gets 3 seats, where the same number of Albertans only get one. Prior to redistribution, Alberta was 125k per seat. They got no voice. The Canadian electoral system is completely and utterly flawed and needs structural change. No matter who benefits from it.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/list&document=index338&lang=e
https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx/co...ir=cir/red/343list&document=index&lang=e

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

• Video Link

I firmly believe the rumours of a Carney inspired bond market manipulation to get Trump to back down of tariffs. This is the sort of creative thinking we need in what is left of the free world to combat Trumpian fascism.

Carney is very well known on the world stage, and, as the former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada has the credibility necessary to positively influence other world leaders to do the right thing.

FDR (Great Depression) and Churchill (WW-2) were men of their times. I sincerely think Carney could be similar.

Same. I would vote CPC or NDP if he was at the top of those parties. It's kinda unfortunate that he's at the top of a red team that actually deserves to pay a price for their incompetence.

I hope he doesn't disappoint on policy. But I do expect that whatever he does, the LPC will be unpopular enough post-Trump to get the boot.

And well, at least for me, Houston seems like the kind of progressive Conservative I would vote for. With my luck, it'll be Ford at the top in 2029, a guy who skates under the radar for all the things he's fucked up in Ontario, thanks to Trudeau.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I firmly believe the rumours of a Carney inspired bond market manipulation to get Trump to back down of tariffs.

Believe based on what though? It’s purely online speculation with zero evidence to back it up.

Mélanie Jolie denied it on the latest Sans Filtre podcast.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sans-filtre-podcast/id1432735930?i=1000704708027

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Not sure who your 1 NDP is in Ontario but I'm not ready to say the incumbent in London Fanshawe is going to get defeated yet. Not sure who the polling is done by that smart voting uses, but it's only showing her down by 2 points to an unknown Liberal candidate. The incumbent has been in office since 2019 and her mother held the riding back to 2006 before that (and was also an MPP in the Bob Rae governemnt. The family name runs strong there. The Liberal candidate I sense was nominated sometime last year and if people thought this was going to be a real race, more well known people would have sought that nomination, maybe even a city councillor or former MPP. Of course the local newspaper (part of Postmedia) is suggesting the Lib and NDP could split the vote and give the CPC the win, but considering the Conservative support is mid 20s and dropping I would be shocked to see that happen.

When I made my predictions I thought of three current NDP ridings where the NDP incumbent has a chance of winning again. Those are London-Fanshawe, Hamilton Centre and Windsor West. There is also the riding I live in, Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk but I highly doubt the NDP candidate here who isn't an incumbent as Charlie Angus isn't running again, will win or even come close.

My thinking was that any of the three ridings I mentioned could go NDP again but I really can't say which will or won't. So I just made a guess that one of the three will. The surge in Liberal support will likely be to strong for all three to be re-elected. I also thought that Lindsay Mathyssen in London-Fanshawe has the best chance due to just her name and that she and her Mother were able to defeat some pretty big names over past elections. And I'm not familiar with the Liberal candidate there. Hamilton Centre and Windsor West will be interesting to watch as both would normally be pretty strong showings for the NDP but I'm curious to see if the movement in from NDP to LPC support will happen greatly in both.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

With my luck, it'll be Ford at the top in 2029, a guy who skates under the radar for all the things he's fucked up in Ontario, thanks to Trudeau.

It still blows my mind that's the political class in Ontario. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate having a trashy, low-brow, schoolyard bully to match Trump in shenanigans... but the Ford family pre-dates all that. It's fascinating - we have controversy here because our Premier maintained his license as an orthopedic trauma surgeon while in office, and the Fords are smoking crack and doing whatever used car sales thing they've been up to.

Obviously ON has more impressive and qualified people than we have total population, but damn ye should elect more of them.

[LeadingEdgeBoomer]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I ran population per riding numbers. The higher the number, the less voice that province gets in Ottawa.

Look at the astounding disparity. I understand the territories, they're tiny. But look at PEI. It gets 3 seats, where the same number of Albertans only get one. Prior to redistribution, Alberta was 125k per seat. They got no voice. The Canadian electoral system is completely and utterly flawed and needs structural change. No matter who benefits from it.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/list&document=index338&lang=e
https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx/co...ir=cir/red/343list&document=index&lang=e

The ridings are altered after each 10 year population census. The following formula is used.

Provincial population ÷ electoral quotient = initial provincial seat allocation

Applying the Senatorial Clause and Grandfather Clause

Applying the Representation Rule

Total provincial seats + One seat per territory = Total number of seats

Clear as mud.

At the time of Confederation. the BNA Act guaranteed tiny PEI four senators.
The ACT also guarantees that each province will have at least one MP for each Senator they have. So with a pop of only about 154,000 PEI gets 4 MPs. This and other rules baked into our constitution account for some of the discrepancies in electoral district size. The BNA is a part of our constitution. The rules for altering the constitution make it so hard to do that few want to tackle it. Mulroney tried with his Meach Lake Accord and the attempt failed.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

It still blows my mind that's the political class in Ontario. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate having a trashy, low-brow, schoolyard bully to match Trump in shenanigans... but the Ford family pre-dates all that. It's fascinating - we have controversy here because our Premier maintained his license as an orthopedic trauma surgeon while in office, and the Fords are smoking crack and doing whatever used car sales thing they've been up to.

Obviously ON has more impressive and qualified people than we have total population, but damn ye should elect more of them.

Especially considering how much Ontarians complain about things under his provincial jurisdiction.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by rousseau

You have over 500 posts in this thread, the most of anyone by far, but the moment I post something you say "nothing to see here! go ride a bike!"

Since I'm here tonight, here's something for the folks who deny that the mainstream media is essentially a propaganda wing of ABC Inc. Did anyone really think that only conservatives like Trump would ever pose in front of a plane on the campaign trail, or was the opportunity to craft yet another baseless narrative too tempting?

All this Trumpiness is getting out of hand.


https://x.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1916188113136648595

[ssiguy]

Of the 3 Southern Ontario NDP ridings, I think London-Fanshawe has the biggest chance of flipping to the Liberals but still by a razor thin margin. Historically, even this riding was Liberal up until about 20 years ago. This is not the case in Windsor or Hamilton which have been bedrock NDP territory since the dawn of time.

Imagine the scenario if the NDP lost all 3 seats. I would never have thought I would see the day where we are even having this conversation. I think it would be wonderful and further expediate the departure of Singh but more importantly cause the NDP to truly look at themselves and discuss why they have become so irrelevant on the national level. Such a scenario would leave the NDP with just 1 seat east of Winnipeg and lose Official Party status.

Even if they hold those seats, they are still going to get completely pulverized and I hope they will take the time to really assess how they can win back the trust of Canadians, adapt to our changing socio-economic landscape, and start actually representing the needs of everyday workers which they have abandoned primarily thru their support of high immigration/TFW/student/refugee/family reunification numbers which have completely undermined the lower working class that they proport to represent.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

It still blows my mind that's the political class in Ontario. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate having a trashy, low-brow, schoolyard bully to match Trump in shenanigans... but the Ford family pre-dates all that. It's fascinating - we have controversy here because our Premier maintained his license as an orthopedic trauma surgeon while in office, and the Fords are smoking crack and doing whatever used car sales thing they've been up to.

Obviously ON has more impressive and qualified people than we have total population, but damn ye should elect more of them.

The Liberals were going down in 2018, there was next to nothing to stop that train. Ford managed to somehow win that leadership (I voted Mulroney myself) after Brown was done dirty, and then lack of competition kept him there in 2022. Mike Schreiner should have ran for Liberal leader, he's my favourite of the provincial leaders but the Greens will never be more than a few MPPs at most. Ford was looking for any excuse to have his election early because the thought was the federal CPC were a lock to take power and he didn't want to have to run against what likely would have been a pretty unpopular federal Conservative party in power for a year. Trump gave him that excuse so here we are. The other parties just don't register any kind of popularity, in fact I had to think about who the Liberal leader was and the election was only 2 months ago.

Of course, engineering the election a year early also clears the decks for him to ponder a federal run without having to make the firm decision to not run for Ontario premier again next year. The CPC, if they have to pick a new leader, likely won't be doing that in the near future, it could be a year or 2 away. I think there will be a stacked deck of candidates in that race though with once again the presumption the Liberals are done in the next election. I think that could actually be one of the most interesting leadership races in a long time.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Especially considering how much Ontarians complain about things under his provincial jurisdiction.

If there were a serious opposition party, DoFo would be gone in a flash.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by rousseau

All this Trumpiness is getting out of hand.


https://x.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1916188113136648595

Gross on so many levels... but does Poilievre have "Conservative" on his plane or has he just renamed the party with his name?

At least the Trump, Trudeau and Liberal planes let the media on them... Pierre and Ana only for theirs...