Quote:
Originally Posted by Loco101
I predicted that the NDP would win 7 seats with 2 of them being in Manitoba.
I looked at each current NDP riding, how well the candidate did before but the main factor was how well the NDP candidate is liked by constituents based on his/her name over party. I've seen some predictions that no NDP candidate will win East of Manitoba. A definite possibility but my guess is one in Ontario and one in Quebec. I'm curious to see if any NDP candidate gets 40% or more of the votes in any riding.
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Not sure who your 1 NDP is in Ontario but I'm not ready to say the incumbent in London Fanshawe is going to get defeated yet. Not sure who the polling is done by that smart voting uses, but it's only showing her down by 2 points to an unknown Liberal candidate. The incumbent has been in office since 2019 and her mother held the riding back to 2006 before that (and was also an MPP in the Bob Rae governemnt. The family name runs strong there. The Liberal candidate I sense was nominated sometime last year and if people thought this was going to be a real race, more well known people would have sought that nomination, maybe even a city councillor or former MPP. Of course the local newspaper (part of Postmedia) is suggesting the Lib and NDP could split the vote and give the CPC the win, but considering the Conservative support is mid 20s and dropping I would be shocked to see that happen.
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