Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[Wooster]

Indeed, amongst decided -


This is much more comparable number to the last poll.

McIver 37%
Higgins 33%
Nenshi 19%

Nenshi + 11 points in 2 weeks is very strong momentum. But highlights that Higgins seems to be holding her support for now.

[Wooster]

So according to the Calgary Sun they invited the top 3 for a debate, Higgins and McIver declined. pretty weak.

[Wooster]

From the mayoral poll:

The ROI poll also gauged the level of momentum in the mayor's race.

Nenshi led that category with the most number of respondents saying their opinion of him had improved, followed by McIver and Higgins.

http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/C...ion_poll_101005/20101005?hub=CalgaryHome

[suburb]

Originally Posted by fusili

Nenshi's support amongst young people is amongst hyper engaged young people. And these people vote. And they tell their friends to vote. And their parents, and write about it on their blogs, and post videos and links on their Facebook profiles. These people are committed. Nenshi is polling well amongst young people, because he has almost monopolized the young engaged voters.

So when a young person says they are going to vote Nenshi, they are going to vote Nenshi. A less engaged middle-aged McIver supporter might just sit at home on election night, because, while they like Ric, they might not feel it necessary to vote. Having 50% support amongst hyper engaged voters is like having 100% support amongst people who are more or less ambivalent.

That's quite fair. I think he still has a solid chance, particularly given McIver and Higgens are splitting most of the rest.

I think Wayne and Hehr need to formally throw their support behind Nenshi too.

[srperrycgy]

I've been wearing a Nenshi button for a few weeks now and it generates questions from folks. Nothing negative....yet.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by fusili

This is such a funny statement (and no offense, I have heard this from many media commentators and political scientists). Nenshi's support amongst young people is amongst hyper engaged young people. And these people vote. And they tell their friends to vote. And their parents, and write about it on their blogs, and post videos and links on their Facebook profiles. These people are committed. Nenshi is polling well amongst young people, because he has almost monopolized the young engaged voters.

So when a young person says they are going to vote Nenshi, they are going to vote Nenshi. A less engaged middle-aged McIver supporter might just sit at home on election night, because, while they like Ric, they might not feel it necessary to vote. Having 50% support amongst hyper engaged voters is like having 100% support amongst people who are more or less ambivalent.

You also have to consider that many of Nenshi's young engaged supporters can't be reached by these polls because they don't have land lines. If you recall about 3 weeks ago, The leger telephone-based poll had him at 8% while a week or so earlier Zinc Research conducted an online-based poll and had him at 12%. I would suspect that telephone-based polls undercount his support by at least a few points.

[Radley77]

I was suprised how much the undecideds has dropped from the last poll. I think it went from 44% undecided, to 16% undecided. All three of the frontrunners have had positive campaign momentum.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by bigcanuck

http://docs.google.com/a/return-on-insig...uY2F8cHVibGljfGd4OjMzNGZkMDgzNTQxOTI3YmY



Source: http://www.return-on-insight.ca/home

Page four numbers on opinion of candidate tell the true story here, +14 on the positives vs negatives for Nenshi. -2 for Hawkesworth (that negative campaigning, oh, can't help!).

Can't fight the big mo - I'd bet that by the end of the week the top 3 are shamed into a debate. I wouldn't be surprised if radio ads are already in the pipe for that expressed purpose.

[Radley77]

Barb Higgins on East Village Redevelopment at the 2010 Mayoralty Forum - Seniors Issues
• Video Link

[suburb]

Originally Posted by Radley77

I was suprised how much the undecideds has dropped from the last poll. I think it went from 44% undecided, to 16% undecided. All three of the frontrunners have had positive campaign momentum.

I believe that is because they counted all the ones that are not decided but leaning. Barb led the pack with the highest number of those polled who now have a worse opinion of her relative to the last poll. Wow!!! Barb's number one!

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Wooster

So according to the Calgary Sun they invited the top 3 for a debate, Higgins and McIver declined. pretty weak.

Hey do you have a link? I couldn't find a mention of it.

[Radley77]

I made this Google Docs spreadsheet of a Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis for the Calgary mayoral forum.

I thought it might help with deciding what is a priority for them this election, as well as which candidate is a leader in each category...

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=...VoOHd2U3lmTTU4OEE&hl=en&authkey=CNrBhMsE

Lots more could be included, and left the spreadsheet open to editing, or downloading as an excel file and building upon...

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Hey do you have a link? I couldn't find a mention of it.

@Tisin Calgary Sun had planned a debate with t/ top 3 in a 2-hour livestream for next week. Only @Nenshi accepted #yycvote #top3candebate

http://twitter.com/calgarysun

[bob1954]

Nenshi's gonna win.... unless he does something or says something rediculous! And he doesn't seem to be the kind of person that's unprepared.

[Ferreth]

Originally Posted by bob1954

Nenshi's gonna win.... unless he does something or says something rediculous! And he doesn't seem to be the kind of person that's unprepared.

I think it's going to be really close, something like:

Nenshi 35%
McIver 34%
Higgins 28%

and it could flip-flop between McIver and Nenshi. All I know is I'm getting a friend that is moving to Okotoks to vote for Nenshi (since they are too busy getting ready to move to worry about researching candidates). So my little "bloc vote" will help just a little bit!

[fusili]

Originally Posted by Radley77

Barb Higgins on East Village Redevelopment at the 2010 Mayoralty Forum - Seniors Issues

Ugh. This is why I won't vote for Barb. She seems like she cares about the issue, but has so little understanding of the process.

[Aegis]

Originally Posted by Wooster

You also have to consider that many of Nenshi's young engaged supporters can't be reached by these polls because they don't have land lines. If you recall about 3 weeks ago, The leger telephone-based poll had him at 8% while a week or so earlier Zinc Research conducted an online-based poll and had him at 12%. I would suspect that telephone-based polls undercount his support by at least a few points.

I don't think this is accurate. Modern telephone polls include people with cell phones.. it's not based purely on who still uses a copper land-line. Online polls aren't scientific because you can't control the sample.

The biggest factor will be the engagement of voters. If a candidate can successfully mobilize their supporters to vote, they have a far better chance. This effect can't be overstated when we're only getting 40-50% voter participation at the most.

On another topic.. why is Barry Erskine running again? The only press I've seen was the fact that he "showed up in the nomination line"..

Stewart and Hehr need to formally endorse Nenshi. Why are they holding back??

[Aegis]

I'm really not impressed with how Higgin's campaign has torn a page from the Sarah Palin campaign manual.

It's obvious that her handlers are not confirming her appearance at forums in which she might be asked difficult and potentially embarassing questions on topics she knows nothing about (the economy).

It appears her most important strategy is to say as little as possible.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by Aegis

I don't think this is accurate. Modern telephone polls include people with cell phones.. it's not based purely on who still uses a copper land-line. Online polls aren't scientific because you can't control the sample.

It was reported that the Leger poll was a land-line poll.

If you read the methodology, the Zinc poll was clearly scientific - sample was controlled based on census demographics.

http://zincresearch.com/modules/news/newsitem.php?ItemId=28

[MalcolmTucker]

The latest poll was not weighted however. Which is great