Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election

[fusili]

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

I am not arguing for there to be either no subsidy, or back to the way it was before - but the current fiscal framework already cut the unfunded infrastructure subsidy by three-quarters if my memory serves me. You can likely cut it by half again by upping density targets in new communities once more and making it much easier to infill.

Good thoughts. This is of course really complicated. The bolded part above I agree with most.

[MalcolmTucker]

^ At least he isn't talking about the gold under city hall anymore (I think, I didn't watch the full video)

[Calgary_Guy]

Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby

^ At least he isn't talking about the gold under city hall anymore (I think, I didn't watch the full video)

Perhaps the gold is under city hall, in that empty underground C Train tunnel so many of us forgot about. I refer to it as Bronconnier station

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7YBZvhVwgk

[freeweed]

Can we just get this damn thing over with? I'm really getting sick of robo-calls and sign litter everywhere. I cannot believe these things are legal.

[suburb]

Originally Posted by freeweed

Can we just get this damn thing over with? I'm really getting sick of robo-calls and sign litter everywhere. I cannot believe these things are legal.

The sign litter is really quite unbelievable. Several of the candidates (and one is the biggest offender but I won't name) create these islands of signs. Like 10 signs in a row within a length of 30-50 feet. What are they thinking? A reasonable number is alright, but making those clusters is sure a waste.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by suburb

The sign litter is really quite unbelievable. Several of the candidates (and one is the biggest offender but I won't name) create these islands of signs. Like 10 signs in a row within a length of 30-50 feet. What are they thinking? A reasonable number is alright, but making those clusters is sure a waste.

Why would not name the offender?

The biggest offender I've seen is Burrows. Not surprising.

[Wooster]

Tweet from Gord Gillies from Global:

Happy Tuesday! New poll numbers coming on the Mayor's race. We hear the top 3 are the same.. but it's tighter. details ahead! #yycvote #yyc

Apparently from Cameron research.

Should be interesting.

[Ramsayfarian]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

Why would not name the offender?

The biggest offender I've seen is Burrows. Not surprising.

I've seen more Higgins signs on public property than anyone else.

[fusili]

From Gord Gillies Twitter:

Cameron Mayor poll: McIver 31%. Higgins 28% Nenshi 16% everyone else 3% or less. 17% 'undecided'. Better breakdown tonite

Nenshi just doubled. Still a long way to go, but this is encouraging.

[Wooster]

Very encouraging that McIver has fallen a lot and that Nenshi has risen a lot. Most surprising is Higgins maintaining exactly the same support.

The results of the previous poll were:

McIver 43%

Higgins 28%

Nenshi 8%

[fusili]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Very encouraging that McIver has fallen a lot and that Nenshi has risen a lot. Most surprising is Higgins maintaining exactly the same support.

The results of the previous poll were:

McIver 43%

Higgins 28%

Nenshi 8%

Based on those numbers, it looks like Nenshi took up almost all the undecideds.

[Wooster]

Never truer words spoken:

jeremybarretto: "If your support peaks on day one, people know your name. If you support increases from day one, people like your ideas." #yycvote

[freeweed]

Wow, that's quite a dramatic change. This has gone from "meh, McIver's got it in the bag" to a bit of a horse race. The next week promises to be very interesting indeed.

[Ramsayfarian]

Originally Posted by fusili

Based on those numbers, it looks like Nenshi took up almost all the undecideds.

Looks like Nenshi is picking up McIver supporters.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by Ramsayfarian

Looks like Nenshi is picking up McIver supporters.

Wait and see till the full numbers come out - if undecideds are moving, Higgins staying firm is a big move as well. Shall be interesting to see if there is any jump for the also rans outside of the margin of error.

[bigcanuck]

http://docs.google.com/a/return-on-insig...uY2F8cHVibGljfGd4OjMzNGZkMDgzNTQxOTI3YmY

A recent poll of Calgarians conducted by Return On Insight indicates that Ric McIver holds a slim 3 percentage point lead over Barb Higgins (31% to 28%), with Naheed Nenshi running third (16%). All other candidates are polling at 3% or less, including Hawkesworth (3%), Burrows (2%), Stewart (2%), Connelly (1%) and Lord (1%). Less than one fifth of the electorate (16%) are undecided with under 2 weeks to go before Election Day.

Among decided voters, the head to head battle between McIver and Higgins is apparent. McIver has the support of 37% of decided voters compared to 33% for Higgins. Naheed Nenshi has pulled away from the crowded pack of other contenders into a solid third place position with 19% of the decided vote. All other candidates combined have the support of the remaining 11% of the electorate.

Source: http://www.return-on-insight.ca/home

[suburb]

I think the deal maker or breaker will be what proportion of the decided or leaning voters will actually come out and vote. Nenshi has many hyper engaged folks on his side, but they are also young. McIver has many old guard. Higgins has many celebrity fans. Hmmm.

[fusili]

Originally Posted by suburb

I think the deal maker or breaker will be what proportion of the decided or leaning voters will actually come out and vote. Nenshi has many hyper engaged folks on his side, but they are also young. McIver has many old guard. Higgins has many celebrity fans. Hmmm.

Nenshi also has huge support amongst young people, and many (notice the purposely vague quantity) of them don't have land lines. These polls are conducted of people with land lines, so take everything with a grain of salt. That being said, a 100% positive change for Nenshi, a approximately 30% drop for McIver and a wash for Higgins, if continued, would but Nenshi in first at election time. Don't forget the Thanksgiving bump. I have a feeling that many more people will be talking about Nenshi at the dinner table than McIver (people who decided long ago) or Higgins (what is there to say).

I know I am an optimist, but when my parents told me that when they went out for dinner with their friends and found out all of them were voting for Nenshi, I was really surprised. My parents were converted by me, but their friends are very conservative (one's a firefighter), and knowing that they are voting for Nenshi really has given me more hope.

Nenshi all the way baby!

[fusili]

Originally Posted by suburb

I think the deal maker or breaker will be what proportion of the decided or leaning voters will actually come out and vote. Nenshi has many hyper engaged folks on his side, but they are also young. McIver has many old guard. Higgins has many celebrity fans. Hmmm.

This is such a funny statement (and no offense, I have heard this from many media commentators and political scientists). Nenshi's support amongst young people is amongst hyper engaged young people. And these people vote. And they tell their friends to vote. And their parents, and write about it on their blogs, and post videos and links on their Facebook profiles. These people are committed. Nenshi is polling well amongst young people, because he has almost monopolized the young engaged voters.

So when a young person says they are going to vote Nenshi, they are going to vote Nenshi. A less engaged middle-aged McIver supporter might just sit at home on election night, because, while they like Ric, they might not feel it necessary to vote. Having 50% support amongst hyper engaged voters is like having 100% support amongst people who are more or less ambivalent.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Wooster

Very encouraging that McIver has fallen a lot and that Nenshi has risen a lot. Most surprising is Higgins maintaining exactly the same support.

The results of the previous poll were:

McIver 43%

Higgins 28%

Nenshi 8%

I think those were the numbers of decided voters, since the 44% undecided couldn't fit with those numbers.

So the numbers to compare are the new decided voter numbers mentioned a few postings down:

"Among decided voters, the head to head battle between McIver and Higgins is apparent. McIver has the support of 37% of decided voters compared to 33% for Higgins. Naheed Nenshi has pulled away from the crowded pack of other contenders into a solid third place position with 19% of the decided vote. All other candidates combined have the support of the remaining 11% of the electorate."