Quote:
Originally Posted by fusili
This is such a funny statement (and no offense, I have heard this from many media commentators and political scientists). Nenshi's support amongst young people is amongst hyper engaged young people. And these people vote. And they tell their friends to vote. And their parents, and write about it on their blogs, and post videos and links on their Facebook profiles. These people are committed. Nenshi is polling well amongst young people, because he has almost monopolized the young engaged voters.
So when a young person says they are going to vote Nenshi, they are going to vote Nenshi. A less engaged middle-aged McIver supporter might just sit at home on election night, because, while they like Ric, they might not feel it necessary to vote. Having 50% support amongst hyper engaged voters is like having 100% support amongst people who are more or less ambivalent.
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You also have to consider that many of Nenshi's young engaged supporters can't be reached by these polls because they don't have land lines. If you recall about 3 weeks ago, The leger telephone-based poll had him at 8% while a week or so earlier Zinc Research conducted an online-based poll and had him at 12%. I would suspect that telephone-based polls undercount his support by at least a few points.
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