Quote:
Originally Posted by suburb
I think the deal maker or breaker will be what proportion of the decided or leaning voters will actually come out and vote. Nenshi has many hyper engaged folks on his side, but they are also young. McIver has many old guard. Higgins has many celebrity fans. Hmmm.
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This is such a funny statement (and no offense, I have heard this from many media commentators and political scientists). Nenshi's support amongst young people is amongst hyper engaged young people. And these people vote. And they tell their friends to vote. And their parents, and write about it on their blogs, and post videos and links on their Facebook profiles. These people are committed. Nenshi is polling well amongst young people, because he has almost monopolized the young engaged voters.
So when a young person says they are going to vote Nenshi, they are going to vote Nenshi. A less engaged middle-aged McIver supporter might just sit at home on election night, because, while they like Ric, they might not feel it necessary to vote. Having 50% support amongst hyper engaged voters is like having 100% support amongst people who are more or less ambivalent.
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