Canadian Federal Election

[q12]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/donald-trump-election-canada-truth-social-1.7520212

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by electricmodes

Oil and gas is mentioned twice.

There's also a section entirely dedicated to plans to foster Canada becoming an energy superpower.

Carney is using vague language. It's evasive.

If I say I'm going to make you strong (qualitatively), and my idea of "strong" is making you curl 5lb dumbbells (quantitatively), then my definition of "strong" is not truly strong.

Gas companies don't want to decipher what the politician will do. Spell it out in clear, decisive, unwavering, and quantifiable language.

[le calmar]

Originally Posted by lio45

It won’t be due to pipelines IMO. Carney will be the best catalyst for a majority PQ govt next year and if they govern better than what we’ve seen recently (extremely low bar), they will get people on board for a third referendum. (Which they have already firmly committed to holding.)

Western separatism isn’t a serious movement. I’d admit it if it were (don’t care either way), but it’s not.

People on here don't want to see it, but it's hard to deny there's some seriously dark clouds on the horizon. I think a third referendum will happen, and while it's still too early to predict the result, there's a distinct possibility that the next one will succeed, depending on things go over the next couple of years. I normally would have predicted another losing referendum, but at the rate things are evolving the situation isn't as clear. Quebec separating would most likely trigger a domino effect.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Mr Tall Forehead

I get that (rural) AB and SK thinks that Ottawa treats them poorly, but in all seriousness, they would be treated like banana republic outposts by Washington.

I agree with you. I don't want this to happen. I'm just saying that it will if Carney keeps down this road. And it becomes very hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

Originally Posted by electricmodes

I live in rural Saskatchewan. No one seriously wants to leave apart from an incredibly small minority with MAGA like worldviews. The reality is AB and SK will never leave as the vast majority of land in the provinces is either Crown Land or Treaty Land. It's never gonna happen.

It's small now, but it won't be. Add in more Ottawa disenfranchisement, continued Trump badgering, and this will grow. Fast. And we do not live in honest world, this does not need to achieve majority or go to a vote. A few pro-51 protests in the street and Trump will use this as pretext to "Liberate these poor oppressed Canadians who had their election rigged". He'll have reduced resistance to a manageable level justify military force. People need to understand what's actually happening here.

[casper]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I agree with you. I don't want this to happen. I'm just saying that it will if Carney keeps down this road. And it becomes very hard to put the genie back in the bottle.



It's small now, but it won't be. Add in more Ottawa disenfranchisement, Trump badgering, and this will grow. Fast. And we do not live in honest world, this does not need to achieve majority or go to a vote. A few pro-51 protests in the street and Trump will use this as pretext to "Liberate these poor oppressed Canadians who had their election rigged". He'll have reduced resistance to a manageable level justify military force. People need to understand what's actually happening here.

The oil pipeline to the coast will never be built with private money. Carney knows that. The Conservatives know that. That is going to be a crown corporation that builds it and it will take a decade. The question is will we need it in a decade. I think we should built one. Trans-mountain carries about 17% of Alberta's production. Add another one that can handle another 15% or twinned pipelines that carry 30%.

If what we are talking about is a 10% hit on oil exports into the US the industry can take the hit. Especially if its for 3 1/2 years and disappears with a new president.

As for Alberta and Saskatchewan. These provinces are not all about oil. They are far more diversified. Especially Saskatchewan. The public in Saskatchewan are getting tired of the SaskParty, the almost flipped to NDP last election. The next one its likely to happen. A party can only remain in power so long.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by casper

The oil pipeline to the coast will never be built with private money.

Agree. Peak oil is passed. Oil is toast.

Pipelines are for natural gas.

There's 10-15yrs of explosive natural gas growth remaining. This is because one third of the world's electricity is still produced by coal. Coal plants can easily be converted to natural gas to cut emissions by half. This is a $1-2T/yr market globally and Canada is starting 5yrs+ behind. It needs emergency level rubber stamp approvals to capitalize on this. If we wait, we miss the boat.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

And awful economic growth and horrible productivity… will result in the Feds bringing a lot of new warm bodies with a pulse, to avoid what just happened in Quebec (credit rating just got lowered because S&P said we aren’t importing enough FNSs; they care about our debt and GDP, not per capita).

I’ll let you guess what the effect on real estate will be…

I am more inclined to think this is what the Conservatives would do. Carney has stated that economic growth from immigration and spending are shortcuts.

Quebec is getting a downgrade because they have returned to irresponsible spending not because they didn't import huge waves of immigrants though having more people would of course dilute that spending in the short term. In the long-term importing huge numbers of uneducated third world immigrants as a method of reining in per capita spending seems very dubious.

But I think you are being disingenuous. You are trying to say it's Liberal economic policies that are way young people live in their basement and a Conservative government will rectify that even though YOU will benefit you are voting Conservative anyway.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by q12

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/donald-trump-election-canada-truth-social-1.7520212

Drumpf must have watched this YouTube video:

• Video Link

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

The oil pipeline to the coast will never be built with private money. Carney knows that. The Conservatives know that. That is going to be a crown corporation that builds it and it will take a decade. The question is will we need it in a decade. I think we should built one. Trans-mountain carries about 17% of Alberta's production. Add another one that can handle another 15% or twinned pipelines that carry 30%.

If what we are talking about is a 10% hit on oil exports into the US the industry can take the hit. Especially if its for 3 1/2 years and disappears with a new president.

As for Alberta and Saskatchewan. These provinces are not all about oil. They are far more diversified. Especially Saskatchewan. The public in Saskatchewan are getting tired of the SaskParty, the almost flipped to NDP last election. The next one its likely to happen. A party can only remain in power so long.

The only reason private money won't build it is because our broken system means it would take a decade to do something we can do in 18 months with political will and it will cost 3X what it should. Especially for Northern Gateway which was already approved. Now it was approved with all sorts of expensive and delaying conditions. We should buy the project from the developers. I am sure it would be cheap and aim to complete it in 2 years. Also triple it's capacity so we can export if needed a huge portion of our oil by tanker and thus not be dependent on the US. We would also need to remove the oil production cap.

Agree Carney is being purposely vague. His previous record (as a climate ideologue) would suggest that is to win over the soft oil voters without committing but I don't think any of them are really accessible Liberal voters so more likely he knows he will need to do something on oil and gas but doesn't want to alienate the much larger group of accessible voters in places like Vancouver Island and the general suburban woman who wants to support climate change on vibes but doesn't want to pay for it. (thus easiest way is punish the oil industry and continue to pay for social programs from the money tree) ( the imaginary money tree not the real money tree that oil and gas is for Canada)

[Mister F]

What's with conservatives threatening the breakup of the country when they don't get the election results they want? Especially ones from the richest province in the country. It all just comes across as moaning.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's not the definition of stability. Italy has had 14 different governments since 2000. We have had 5 (Chretien, Martin, Harper, Trudeau, Carney). Italy is a literal poster child of instability. Only Australia has any level of instability with FPTP parliamentary system which is a warning to not give caucus too much power. The UK has recently started to do the same. Again our system of leaders control wins on that front.

And yet Italy is just as effective at getting things done as Canada. If that's the poster child of PR being unstable then it's not a very strong case. And if two of the more prominent FPTP countries are experiencing instability that doesn't really support your argument.

Most of the most developed and successful democracies have PR. Are you going to make the case that Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Korea, Sweden, Austria, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Japan, and Ireland are all more unstable than Canada?

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The only reason private money won't build it is because our broken system means it would take a decade to do something we can do in 18 months with political will and it will cost 3X what it should. We would also need to remove the oil production cap.

Agree Carney is being purposely vague. And continue to pay for social programs from the money tree ( the imaginary money tree not the real money tree that oil and gas is for Canada)

Yes.

And this is why it feels like he's manufacturing a unity crisis. When 74% of even QC supports a pipeline, it's an overwhelming national majority. He does not need to be vague. He needs to be explicit. He needs to get in line with the electorate, or they will revolt on him. And if he supports LNG by rail, great. That's also very viable. Just say so. Stop playing games.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Mister F

What's with conservatives threatening the breakup of the country when they don't get the election results they want? Especially ones from the richest province in the country. It all just comes across as moaning.

And yet Italy is just as effective at getting things done as Canada. If that's the poster child of PR being unstable then it's not a very strong case. And if two of the more prominent FPTP countries are experiencing instability that doesn't really support your argument.

Most of the most developed and successful democracies have PR. Are you going to make the case that Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Korea, Sweden, Austria, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Japan, and Ireland are all more unstable than Canada?

Italy is certainly not as effective at getting things done. Their politics is often cited as a catalyst for their crisis. While some might claim we have a crisis because of Trudeau that isn't really very accurate and it's hard to argue any of our problems are because of FPTP. All your examples are unitary states. Switzerland is an important exception. But they also have a FPTP senate like body avoiding the regional issues that would doom it in Canada. Anyway this is non election related so perhaps post election we can start a should Canada reform our electoral system threat. Where it is on topic is interesting is will the Conservatives be inclined to support reform if they lose to a Liberal majority with 40% of the vote?

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Mister F

What's with conservatives threatening the breakup of the country when they don't get the election results they want? Especially ones from the richest province in the country. It all just comes across as moaning.



And yet Italy is just as effective at getting things done as Canada. If that's the poster child of PR being unstable then it's not a very strong case. And if two of the more prominent FPTP countries are experiencing instability that doesn't really support your argument.

Most of the most developed and successful democracies have PR. Are you going to make the case that Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Korea, Sweden, Austria, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Japan, and Ireland are all more unstable than Canada?

Did you see what they did during the Clownvoy? Will they accept election results? They're the ones peddling disinformation / misinformation putting at peril our trusted institutions... I am tired of maple maga.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Mr Tall Forehead

I get that (rural) AB and SK thinks that Ottawa treats them poorly, but in all seriousness, they would be treated like banana republic outposts by Washington.

All of Canada would be treated as poorly as Puerto Rico but with vast resources to fully exploit.
*insert Trump voice*

"Look at my little Newfoundlanders over there!"
"I just love those French Canadians in that cute little area known as Que-beck and their funny little accents"
"We're going to drill in all of Canada's former national parks. Drill baby, drill"
"Canada once had big banks. But they were too restrictive. Too many rules! We don't like that, no we don't like that at all! We had to let them get absorbed by fine American banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Bank of America"

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Can't wait for this election to be over. The arguments have been stupidly divisive. Even on this forum.

Thank god for a short election campaign!

[NotToScale]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Did you see what they did during the Clownvoy? Will they accept election results? They're the ones peddling disinformation / misinformation putting at peril our trusted institutions... I am tired of maple maga.

haha your rants...

[harls]

Originally Posted by NotToScale

haha your rants...

Black Star?
Migs?

Who else might it be..

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Wife saw that skit and unprompted said, "I like that Carney has a sense of humor. He seems at ease. Reminds me of Obama."

It indicates intelligence, charisma, and authenticity. He can roll with this stuff and answer because he believes what he is selling you. PP needs to stick on whatever message he has made up for himself and the CPC, and it's harder to react off the cuff because it isn't authentic.

I'm sure the Carney/Obama style can be faked but it's pretty difficult IMO.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

This MF. He's already winding up the separatists for a post Carney win. This is bad. All Carney had to do was give completely clear and loud support for pipelines. He would have won over more of Alberta and the country in general. Instead he wimped out and veered lunatic hard-left Liberal about 3 weeks ago. This is an extremely bad situation.

How many pipelines do the LPC need to buy to get Alberta to vote for them?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Agree. Peak oil is passed. Oil is toast.

Pipelines are for natural gas.

CGL is delivering 2Bcf/d and has the potential capacity to deliver 5Bcf/d. Exactly how much capacity do you think we need for export?