Canadian Federal Election

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah, 22 Minute's election special was quite the success IMO. And the absence of the Conservatives was a glaring omission.

I think the modern Conservatives need to shake this fear of the media (and especially the jesters) that they have. Harper and PP have basically gone out of their way to avoid the general media and keep their appearances limited to friendly media, and it is noticable.

Sure, the 22 Minutes crew are fairly hostile to the Conservatives; but they generally hold their punches a bit for actual in-person interviews/skits, and let the guests look as good as they want. The Green and NDP realized that long ago, and will make apperances any time they can get the chance. I think Houston and Ford, while they don't get as many chances, are still willing to show up.

I can't remember if O'Toole ever made an appearance.

Going further back too, I think Manning and Charest used to show up on Air Farce or RMR or 22. Not regularly but not noticably rarer compared ot Chretien or Justin's apperances. (I can't remember if Mulroney ever showed up; I think he may have but it may be a Mandela effect)

Let's not forget Bob Rae's naked jumping in the lake with Rick Mercer. I've heard both of them on the Toronto Mike'd podcast talk about this and both said it was a totally spontaneous decision as they stood there on that dock.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

Reports from the police are no. They have said they believe it mental health.

Singh attended the event earlier in the day.

Carney will be in Vancouver this evening, he is expected to meet up with Ebby to be with the local community. Sounds like the local mass with have Singh, Ebby and Carney in attendance.

Reports are the Liberal rally in Vancouver and Calgary have been cancelled as result.

Good to see the PM and leader of the NDP putting there responsibilities as PM and opposition leader ahead of campaigning.

It will be interesting to see if the tragedy in Vancouver has any last minute impact on voters’ choices. I know this sounds crass but reality is reality. It gave Carney a chance to appear prime ministerial, a reminder to the electorate that Poilievre and the Conservatives are the champions of law & order and Singh benefited from the exposure by virtue of having attended the event. That said all the leaders and their campaigns have been commendably respectful and restrained.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It will be interesting to see if the tragedy in Vancouver has any last minute impact on voters’ choices. I know this sounds crass but reality is reality. It gave Carney a chance to appear prime ministerial, a reminder to the electorate that Poilievre and the Conservatives are the champions of law & order and Singh benefited from the exposure by virtue of having attended the event. That said all the leaders and their campaigns have been commendably respectful and restrained.

There are 1,000,000 Filipinos in Canada. I am pretty certain they are not thrilled with Poilievre's insensitivity with the tragedy, and probably approve Carney coming over to offer his condolences.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I am pretty certain they are not thrilled with Poilievre's insensitivity with the tragedy,

And what, precisely, did Poilievre do to portray insensitivity in your opinion? Or, like the National Post predictably endorsing the Conservatives, would you have typed the same partisan commentary no matter what Poilievre did or didn't do?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah, 22 Minute's election special was quite the success IMO. And the absence of the Conservatives was a glaring omission.

I think the modern Conservatives need to shake this fear of the media (and especially the jesters) that they have. Harper and PP have basically gone out of their way to avoid the general media and keep their appearances limited to friendly media, and it is noticable.

Sure, the 22 Minutes crew are fairly hostile to the Conservatives; but they generally hold their punches a bit for actual in-person interviews/skits, and let the guests look as good as they want. The Green and NDP realized that long ago, and will make apperances any time they can get the chance. I think Houston and Ford, while they don't get as many chances, are still willing to show up.

I can't remember if O'Toole ever made an appearance.

Going further back too, I think Manning and Charest used to show up on Air Farce or RMR or 22. Not regularly but not noticably rarer compared ot Chretien or Justin's apperances. (I can't remember if Mulroney ever showed up; I think he may have but it may be a Mandela effect)

On the recent Tim's interview, Carney was asked if the budget can be balanced can by incorporating the Canadian government in the Cayman Islands alluding to his time at Brookfield. And he rolled with it.

This is the fundamental difference with Poilievre. I don't think he actually has the sense of humour and bonhomie to actual handle an interview like that.

Wife saw that skit and unprompted said, "I like that Carney has a sense of humor. He seems at ease. Reminds me of Obama."

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

There are 1,000,000 Filipinos in Canada. I am pretty certain they are not thrilled with Poilievre's insensitivity with the tragedy, and probably approve Carney coming over to offer his condolences.

More partisan nonsense with nothing to back it up.

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

And what, precisely, did Poilievre do to portray insensitivity in your opinion? Or, like the National Post predictably endorsing the Conservatives, would you have typed the same partisan commentary no matter what Poilievre did or didn't do?

I don't think PP did anything insensitive. He was in the Toronto area and attended a local Pilipino church service saying a few words.

Carney and Singh did more. They are attending a local service with the community that was directly impacted. Logistics allowed that to happen they just happened to have had plans to be in BC today. So some minor adjustments and it was done.

I don't think anyone would expect PP to logistically be in Vancouver.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by whatnext

More partisan nonsense with nothing to back it up.

Do you have anything constructive to add to the conversation, or are you just going to repeat your one-liners, just like your hero Poilievre.

C'mon What next, say it with me:

"BRING IT HOME!"
"AXE THE TAX"
"LOST LIBERAL DECADE"
"MANDATORY MINIMUMS"
"CANADIANS ARE STUPID"
"COMMON SENSE CONSERVATIVES"
"JUST LIKE JUSTIN"
"LEFTIST WOKE IDEOLOGY"

You are about as educated, as the rest of your clan.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

BC has proven to be the most unpredictable in this election and I don't think they will get over 18 seats. The NDP has a stronger base here than anywhere else in the country and that only hurts the Liberals. While I think the NDP would be happy to get even 3 seats in the province, it's their impact on the other ridings that count. They still have enough support that the Tories could win several seats in GV/FV by a split in the Liberal/NDP support.

For me, I still think it will be a Liberal majority but not an overwhelming one and they will come out with around 180 seats with the following: AC...26, Quebec...40, Ontario...82, Man/Sask/North...10, Alberta...5, and BC...17.

I'm totally with you on the prediction for BC. I predicted 18 LPC seats which would be a very good result for the party in BC. There is the potential for a number of CPC pickups unlike anywhere else in Canada.

[BlackDog204]

"Pierre Poilievre used the senseless murder of 16 people in Vancouver to springboard into this woman’s video to create fear porn for votes today.

Dude has the values of a fucking serial killer. Pure garbage."

source: https://x.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1916560436121530653

Nothing like exploiting the tragedy in Vancouver for political gain:

https://x.com/CPC_HQ/status/1916554720182731161

[BlackDog204]

Prediction: Poilievre gets wiped out tomorrow.

He’s a loser. Jenni Byrne is a 4 time loser who surrounded herself with other losers who will go down as the biggest loser in political history.

If you want to see this through, Vote. Polls are one thing. Voting is entirely different.

[BlackDog204]

Postmedia is a parasitoid: it feeds on local newspapers, kills them, and then pretends they're still alive. Below is The Guardian. It used to be a real newspaper. Today, its parasitoid posts political ads disguised as news stories — paid for by parties, designed to fool the community it once served.

[BlackDog204]

“An analysis of 350,000 Twitter posts reveals a coordinated campaign to support Pierre Poilievre and attack Mark Carney’s reputation. This election isn’t about choosing a prime minister, or resisting Trump — it’s about fighting for democracy itself.

https://cultmtl.com/2025/04/beware-canada-is-having-its-first-disinformation-election/

[JManc]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Prediction: Poilievre gets wiped out tomorrow.

He’s a loser. Jenni Byrne is a 4 time loser who surrounded herself with other losers who will go down as the biggest loser in political history.

If you want to see this through, Vote. Polls are one thing. Voting is entirely different.

Looks like Canada has a similar male-female "problem" we do in terms of political leanings; men skew right, women skew left but not high enough percentages for CPC among men to make things competitive for Poilievre.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Here's my prediction:

LPC: 43% (176 seats)
CPC: 41% (132 seats)
NDP: 8% (8 seats)
BQ: 6% (24 seats)
GRN: 1% (2 seats)
PPC: 1% (0 seats)


And to add to that, in Atlantic Canada:

LPC: 55% (25 seats)
CPC: 38% (7 seats)
NDP: 6% (0 seats)

On one hand I'm really bullish on the CPC in rural NL, on the other hand I just want to take the easy way out and predict 7 LPC seats. Sticking to my gut feeling in those rural districts has done me well in the past, so I'll do it again. I really want to give Terra Nova-The Peninsulas to the CPC as well, but I suspect they may lose it by a very slim margin.

You're the only one as far as I know who is predicting a CPC pickup of a currently LPC held riding! I've also heard that Long Range Mountains has a chance of going from LPC to CPC. Central Newfoundland is currently CPC and should be an interesting one to watch as it was very close in 2021.

Any other ridings that anyone knows of that have a shot at being LPC to CPC pickups? Somebody told me that the one that covers Cape Breton would have been until recently but has still has a small chance. In Ontario things have changed to the point that I could name some like Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, Richmond Hill South, Vaughan-Woodbridge and York Centre but I don't think that any of them actually have a chance of going CPC. Interestingly, all of those Ontario ridings are right in the same area. In Western Canada, the current LPC held ridings in Alberta could go CPC but highly unlikely this time. |In BC it seems like the current LPC ridings will remain LPC unless there is some kind of local factor that I'm not aware of.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Postmedia is a parasitoid: it feeds on local newspapers, kills them, and then pretends they're still alive. Below is The Guardian. It used to be a real newspaper. Today, its parasitoid posts political ads disguised as news stories — paid for by parties, designed to fool the community it once served.

IMG]

LOL, who knew Poilievre Derangement Syndrome was a thing?

[casper]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

“An analysis of 350,000 Twitter posts reveals a coordinated campaign to support Pierre Poilievre and attack Mark Carney’s reputation. This election isn’t about choosing a prime minister, or resisting Trump — it’s about fighting for democracy itself.

https://cultmtl.com/2025/04/beware-canada-is-having-its-first-disinformation-election/

The social media aspect is deeply concerning. Especially if meta or X is actively trying to favor one side or another.

While I don't like Peterson, Musk or O'Leary they are Canadians. They should get a say. US Corporations should not have a say at all.

Canadian corporations should have a say up to the spending cap for a donation. That is fairly modest.

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Postmedia is a parasitoid: it feeds on local newspapers, kills them, and then pretends they're still alive. Below is The Guardian. It used to be a real newspaper. Today, its parasitoid posts political ads disguised as news stories — paid for by parties, designed to fool the community it once served.

As for Post Media. Yes, that is just bad form. It is one thing to have your editorial board endorse a candidate its something else to have that become front page copy like that. They are dropping down to the level of Revel Media at that point.

Good think the polls are showing a Liberal majority. Lets hope (despite this) it holds. There is a lot of work that needs to happen over the next four year. Liberals are the only ones with a solid plan that can deliver results.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by JManc

Looks like Canada has a similar male-female "problem" we do in terms of political leanings; men skew right, women skew left but not high enough percentages for CPC among men to make things competitive for Poilievre.

That doesn’t show Canadian men skewing right though. It shows them as evenly split above age 35 and skewing left below that.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Hecate

And you clearly live in a liberal one.

Because you refuse to acknowledge that Trump likes your precious carney.

He likes him in that he isn't Justin Trudeau.

[Taeolas]

Well, it's finally election day. Newfoundland Polls are opening any minute now and the 12 hour voting day starts right after (and rolls across the country from there).

We'll probably start seeing some initial results reported by the time Atlantic Canada polls close (half hour after NL close).

The current polls do bode well for Carney's Liberals, so I'm cautiously optimistic. On the other hand, November did traumatize me, so until we start seeing results, I'm going to be rather nervous that despite the history and everything else, the polling was just wrong. At least the gap is big enough that even if they were wrong, Carney should still win.

I don't follow enough to do a regional breakdown; but I'm standing by my estimate of a 185ish seat Liberal Majority. That's been my gut feel for a long time now, even when CBC was predicting a 200+ seat super majority.

I'm also doing a hail Mary and saying NDP will eek out just enough seats to just hold onto party status. More likely they'll only get 6-8 seats, but I'm still betting a wildcard they'll squeeze out 3-4 more to get ~12 seats.

Anyways, if you haven't voted yet; make sure you get out there and vote. And we'll see how things shake out this evening. No matter what the results, this has certainly been a campaign for the history books.