Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by trueviking

So. Are we doing predictions? Price is right rules.

LPC: 198
CPC: 118
BQ: 21
NDP: 7
GPC: 1


Bonus pick. Liberal seats.

29 Maritimes
45 Quebec
88 Ontario
6 Manitoba
5 Alberta
22 BC
3 North

If the CPC lose by over 70 seats, there will be a mutiny within the party, possibly leading to a split, where the moderates form a new party, similar to the old Tories, and the rest drifting further right, that is influenced by Western Canada.

Jenni Byrne will be exiled to Baffin Island.

[casper]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If the CPC lose by over 70 seats, there will be a mutiny within the party, possibly leading to a split, where the moderates form a new party, similar to the old Tories, and the rest drifting further right, that is influenced by Western Canada.

Jenni Byrne will be exiled to Baffin Island.

It is for the best. The conservatives need to reinvent themselves.

I think Jennie Byrne is more likely to end up in Saskatchewan or Alberta. Maybe Uranium City? Baffin Island will clearly be Liberal territory.

[janbe74]

My Prediction

Liberal Seats
28 Maritimes
43 Quebec
82 Ontario
6 Manitoba
4 Alberta
21 BC
3 North

=187

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Easy tp figure out.

There are 343 federal parliamentary ridings.
The population of Canada (population clock) is 41,630,918

This would give an average population per riding of 121,573

The seat allocation based on pure population (rounded) therefore would be:

ON - 134 seats (122 seats) +12 seats
QC - 75 seats (78 seats) -3 seats
BC - 47 seats (43 seats) +4 seats
AB - 41 seats (37 seats) +4 seats
MB - 12 seats (14 seats) -2 seats
SK - 10 seats (14 seats) -4 seats
NS - 9 seats (11 seats) -2 seats
NB - 7 seats (10 seats) -3 seats
NL - 5 seats (7 seats) -2 seats
PE - 2 seats ((4 seats) -2 seats
NT - 1 seat N/C
YT - 1 seat N/C
NU - 1 seat N/C

TOTAL - 345 seats (343 seats)

Consequences:

- Ontario would make out like a bandit, further centralizing power in the GTHA, mostly for the benefit of the Liberals.
- BC and AB would have improved representation, but, the gains for the CPC would only be modest if any (most new seats in BC would be in the lower mainland which is LPC/NDP territory).
- All other provinces would lose representation, making the federation even more unbalanced than it already is. In Atlantic Canada, the seat count would go down to 23 seats from 32 seats which would be catastrophic in terms of having regional voices heard in Ottawa. MB and SK would lose 6 seats which would mean large rural ridings becoming even bigger with less cohesion and commonality than before.

Is this worth it to give Alberta a measly four extra seats in Ottawa? I can't imagine it would make any difference in Alberta's political power at the federal level.

There’s little to be gained opening up the constitution for those 4 extra seats… but a lot to lose in terms of national unity. It would be especially pointless to do this if it wasn’t at least coupled with proportional representation.

But there’s lots to be gained by implementing a ranked ballot, and no need to reopen the constitution to implement a ranked ballot, as the system of riding would be unchanged.

I’d love to see PR implemented one day, but I think we should at least try and push for a table ballot first… once the stink of JT is no longer associated with the idea at least

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If the CPC lose by over 70 seats, there will be a mutiny within the party, possibly leading to a split, where the moderates form a new party, similar to the old Tories, and the rest drifting further right, that is influenced by Western Canada.

Jenni Byrne will be exiled to Baffin Island.

Wishful thinking, unfortunately. The only rebranding will be the leadership and rhetoric. They’re not stupid enough to split the conservative vote two ways, unless it’s two separate, regional parties that don’t run against each other.

Having a PC party for Eastern Canada and Conservative Party for Western Canada would be a little confusing and a bit like going back in time in terms of the branding, but I guess it would be preferable.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Final Leger has been released, nothing in it to indicate that a LPC minority is even a possibility:

Top-line:
LPC: 43%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 8%
BQ: 6%

ONTARIO:
LPC: 48%
CPC: 40%

QUEBEC:
LPC: 42%
CPC: 24%
NDP: 5%
BQ: 26%

BC:
LPC: 43%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 11%

Out of all pollsters, this one carries the highest weight for me. They show zero bias, their past results speak for themselves. Their topline numbers are always bang on or within 1 point. Even their Quebec and Ontario numbers are scary accurate.

This poll translates into 184 seat majority.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Anybody else feel that PP has had more steam these last few days than Carney? I'm thining Carney was wise to go for the shortest possible campaign period.

I feel the opposite. Carney is spending his last days on the offence visiting tight areas like GTA/Windsor/London, and enemy territory like Saskatchewan and Alberta. Meanwhile PP is playing defence holding events in Saskatchewan and Alberta and finishing in his own riding. Not a good look.

[Marshsparrow]

It's strange to see a provincial premier call out the BQ... Tim obviously has federal ambitions and I suspect will be one of the first to call for Pierre to resign if there is no solid CPC victory tomorrow.

Nova Scotia premier blasts Bloc leader for calling Canada 'artificial country'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nova-sc...er-comments-artificial-country-1.7519562

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Out of all pollsters, this one carries the highest weight for me. They show zero bias, their past results speak for themselves. Their topline numbers are always bang on or within 1 point. Even their Quebec and Ontario numbers are scary accurate.

This poll translates into 184 seat majority.

Agreed. When I am uncertain about what's happening I turn to Leger for guidance. Sure, maybe this is the year they're off, but until they're proven wrong they'll get the benefit of the doubt from me.

------------

As for less professional polling, I'm going to shut off responses to my unofficial poll in 3 hours. I'll present the results, but I'll caution everyone now that these results will not be the election day results, not even close. Much like how the poll attached to this thread only shows us that SSP is a heavily Liberal-leaning platform, my poll has only shown me that Twitter is a heavily Conservative-leaning platform

I am a little disappointed that my poll skewed this way, especially since for the first 3 days it was closely tracking the national topline we've seen from other polling agencies. Then it completely went off the rails.

[Truenorth00]

Can't wait for this election to be over. The arguments have been stupidly divisive. Even on this forum.

[MonctonRad]

• Video Link

The two Marks at Timmies.

Critch: "Mr Prime Minister, did you organize a bond sell off to bring Trump back into line?"

Carney: "I couldn't possibly comment....."

[Taeolas]

Yeah, 22 Minute's election special was quite the success IMO. And the absence of the Conservatives was a glaring omission.

I think the modern Conservatives need to shake this fear of the media (and especially the jesters) that they have. Harper and PP have basically gone out of their way to avoid the general media and keep their appearances limited to friendly media, and it is noticable.

Sure, the 22 Minutes crew are fairly hostile to the Conservatives; but they generally hold their punches a bit for actual in-person interviews/skits, and let the guests look as good as they want. The Green and NDP realized that long ago, and will make apperances any time they can get the chance. I think Houston and Ford, while they don't get as many chances, are still willing to show up.

I can't remember if O'Toole ever made an appearance.

Going further back too, I think Manning and Charest used to show up on Air Farce or RMR or 22. Not regularly but not noticably rarer compared ot Chretien or Justin's apperances. (I can't remember if Mulroney ever showed up; I think he may have but it may be a Mandela effect)

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The two Marks at Timmies.

Critch: "Mr Prime Minister, did you organize a bond sell off to bring Trump back into line?"

Carney: "I couldn't possibly comment....."

Good piece and good answer.

I have no idea if it is true or not. Either way, the rumor alone should strike fear in the hearts of the Trump administration.

In the days before negotiations with the US, we just need the PM to publicly announce he has had constructive and productive phone calls with the leaders of China, Japan, Mexico and EU regarding US tariffs.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah, 22 Minute's election special was quite the success IMO. And the absence of the Conservatives was a glaring omission.

Being the CBC I would expect the Conservatives were asked. If asked, certain they would have declined.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by casper

Being the CBC I would expect the Conservatives were asked. If asked, certain they would have declined.

The CBC in New Brunswick had roundtable discussions with all the candidates in all provincial ridings during their morning shows. To a person, every single Conservative candidate declined to participate. I considered this cowardly and bad form, and, obviously, this was the directive given by the federal Conservative war room to all the local candidates.

[casper]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The CBC in New Brunswick had roundtable discussions with all the candidates in all provincial ridings during their morning shows. To a person, every single Conservative candidate declined to participate. I considered this cowardly and bad form, and, obviously, this was the directive given by the federal Conservative war room to all the local candidates.

On Vancouver Island it was the same thing. They did not want their candidates to participate in local debates.

It is almost like the party does not trust their candidates for MP. Well as voters why should we trust an MP if their own party won't trust them.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by casper

Good piece and good answer.


Being the CBC I would expect the Conservatives were asked. If asked, certain they would have declined.

I'm sure they had invites out to everyone involved. (Hell they even gave the PPC a moment in their special. ). That the Conservatives declined is bad for the Conservatives. IMO, it shows the Conservatives are drifting away from the every day people, and getting isolated in their own bubble.

Sure appearing on a CBC show won't be the friendliest appearance; but 22 Minutes have a long history of handling these appearances, and generally they will try to make sure their guests have a good time and come across well. Their guest may need to take a light punch or two with respect to their policies (a joke about defunding the CBC is mandatory basically), but taking it with a forced grin and moving on is just part of the skit.

That they are not doing this, and are unwilling to do this, is a major disconnect and something they should correct in the future.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The CBC in New Brunswick had roundtable discussions with all the candidates in all provincial ridings during their morning shows. To a person, every single Conservative candidate declined to participate. I considered this cowardly and bad form, and, obviously, this was the directive given by the federal Conservative war room to all the local candidates.

They have had a lot of off message days from their candidates in the past as have conservatives in BC and Ontario recently. But the leader isn't a net positive for the campaign so they absolutely needed to be out there criticizing the MPs locally. As with the planes they should be making this Liberal record vs Conservative change not Carney v Poilievre. Though Poilievre is probably also now fighting the post election leadership battle at the same time so needs to keep the team as weak as possible.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by trueviking

So. Are we doing predictions? Price is right rules.

LPC: 198
CPC: 116
BQ: 21
NDP: 7
GPC: 1


Bonus pick. Liberal seats.

29 Maritimes
45 Quebec
88 Ontario
6 Manitoba
5 Alberta
22 BC
3 North

Thanks loco. Bad math.

[FrAnKs]

My prédiction:

LPC 180
CPC 128
BQ 26
NDP 8
GPC 1

[casper]

My prediction:

LPC 180
CPC 126
BQ 26
NDP 8
Green 2
Independent 1

I think Elizabeth May will get her seat, currently the polls are showing the conservatives in the lead due to vote splitting between Green/NDP/Liberal. I think there is going to be more strategic voting than the polls indicate. The vast majority of voters in that ridding would be offended having a conservative MP.

The Conservatives declined to have de Jong run for them. I think he has a better chance of winning his riding than the conservative candidate.