Canadian Federal Election

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by LeadingEdgeBoomer

Election Canada reports that 7.3 million people voted at the advance polls. That is 7.3 million votes that can't be changed now.

And apparently from exit polling, about 45% of them are for the Liberals and only around 35% of them are for the CPC. Not a good showing for PP if those ratios hold by next Monday.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

Top line is more or less same as last week

LPC 43%
CPC 39%
NDP 8%
BQ 6% (26% in QC)
GPC 2%
PPC 2%

ON - LPC - 48, CPC - 41
QC - LPC - 42, BQ- 26, CPC - 22
ATL - LPC 53, CPC - 35
BC - LPC - 43, CPC - 41

These regionals are an absolutely crushing win for the Liberals. Everyone talks about the Cons wasted votes running up the numbers in Alberta and Sask (and rural Ontario) but there are even more wasted votes in that 22% in Quebec which would be a recent record high but adds maybe a seat or two max. Even a few points more to get to 24% and match 2006 might not net any more seats.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Regulation IS the waste. Both internally via gov expansion, and externally in the harm it does to the economy.

Regulations cause more economic cost and harm than the thing they're regulating against. Canada needs more action and less altruism.

You can't make a blanket statement like that.

Something like not taking years or decades to approve large projects? Probably plenty of streamlining to do there.

Saying nah, we don't need food standards, inject your beef with whatever you want, go ahead and put cancer causing preservatives in you food products, chop down that national park - absolutely not. Public health? Who needs that to function? Everyone.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Regulation IS the waste. Both internally via gov expansion, and externally in the harm it does to the economy.

Regulations cause more economic cost and harm than the thing they're regulating against. Canada needs more action and less altruism.

You really need to cite real sources for your wild claims.

Gutting the FDA, USAID, IRS, and so on will have disastrous long term impacts to the US. They have abdicated their leadership position on so many things in the world.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

You really need to cite real sources for your wild claims.

I just did. Twice. The $300 billion River Class Destroyers which continue to be gleefully glazed over.

$200+ billion of which is literally taxpayer dollars lit on fire.

Go on. Justify this.

[WarrenC12]

Here we are 6 days out and PP is still peddling this crap thinking this is a winning strategy.

Pierre Poilievre says he’ll end ‘woke ideology’ — he isn’t saying what that means

[jonny24]

I'd agree with the several posters that have said, either themselves or observing others, that people are voting for Mark Carney, not the Liberal Party.

That's how I feel, anyway. There's no way I would have voted for JT, and probably not even Freeland. My wife and I personally haven't suffered but I can see how a lot of the governments choices over the last decade have had extremely poor results for a lot of Canadians.

But IMO it really is a one issue election, and the threat of what Trump could do outweighs all of that, and we need the "adult in the room" to deal with it. Carney being both rooted in economics (where a lot of our domestic problems lie) and no stranger to a crisis, make him the guy I want in charge. I also have a bit of faith that someone with his private industry experience will know the value of building a team of actually competent people.

And while some criticize them for it, the CPC pressure over the last few actually made the Liberals shift back to the centre, and I can appreciate them actually going "okay, this isn't working, lets change it up a bit" (even if it was to save their own skins).

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I just did. Twice. The $300 billion River Class Destroyers which continue to be gleefully glazed over.

$200+ billion of which is literally taxpayer dollars lit on fire.

Go on. Justify this.

Military procurement is a mess in Canada, no doubt.

Remind me, how much did DOGE cut from the Pentagon's budget? They are hardly more efficient. They've failed how many audits?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jonny24

I'd agree with the several posters that have said, either themselves or observing others, that people are voting for Mark Carney, not the Liberal Party.

I think to go a little further they are voting for what a Carney led LPC looks like, rather than a PP led CPC. Switch out Trudeau and O'Toole and the CPC would cruise to victory with or without Trump in the Whitehouse, IMO.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Military procurement is a mess in Canada, no doubt.

Remind me, how much did DOGE cut from the Pentagon's budget? They are hardly more efficient. They've failed how many audits?

If memory serves correct the (proposed) Pentagon budget has actually been increased to be at or near $1 Trillion (an increase of over $100 Billion)

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Wigs

If memory serves correct the (proposed) Pentagon budget has actually been increased to be at or near $1 Trillion

He's nuts. One month he wanted to cut military in half to ~$500B. Then the next month he wants to spend 5% of GDP ~$1,500B. Total loose cannon, hence the risk.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Remind me, how much did DOGE cut from the Pentagon's budget? They are hardly more efficient. They've failed how many audits?

Ohh they're just as bad if not worse. And to Canada's advantage. I point this out every time someone says Canada could never defend against USA, because USA spends $1T/yr on military. It's not about how much you spend. It's about how much you get for each dollar. Canada has mountains of gov fat it can streamline. Making services more efficient and cost less.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I think if there was any hope for the CPC to at least hold the Liberals to a minority, it would have begun rearing its head in the polls by now, but the flurry of polls between yesterday and today really haven't given any indication that it could be possible. The Abacus which will release tomorrow supposedly is hovering around minority territory, but I haven't seen the data to confirm. But that's only one agency in a large pool not showing enough of a shift in ON to QC to make up the difference.

Other than the rolling polls, I suspect we may not see another large, non-rolling poll release until Sunday when everyone will get in their final polls & predictions.

[NotToScale]

Originally Posted by jonny24

I'd agree with the several posters that have said, either themselves or observing others, that people are voting for Mark Carney, not the Liberal Party.

That's how I feel, anyway. There's no way I would have voted for JT, and probably not even Freeland. My wife and I personally haven't suffered but I can see how a lot of the governments choices over the last decade have had extremely poor results for a lot of Canadians.

But IMO it really is a one issue election, and the threat of what Trump could do outweighs all of that, and we need the "adult in the room" to deal with it. Carney being both rooted in economics (where a lot of our domestic problems lie) and no stranger to a crisis, make him the guy I want in charge. I also have a bit of faith that someone with his private industry experience will know the value of building a team of actually competent people.

And while some criticize them for it, the CPC pressure over the last few actually made the Liberals shift back to the centre, and I can appreciate them actually going "okay, this isn't working, lets change it up a bit" (even if it was to save their own skins).

jesus... Trump caused all the problems for Canada huh? ffs ... wool over the eyes

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Unsure what his plans are for the final push, but Carney would be wise to make stops in Vancouver, Kelowna, Edmonton, and Calgary. He has lost 8-10 seats in the past week. Some ridings in the Lower Mainland are going blue, and Edmonton/Calgary they are rapidly losing ground, where it looked like the Liberals could win 8-10. Seats.

For Alberta, the momentum is such, that the may end up with only 2 seats, as so many toss-ups are now being led by the CPC by 2-5 points. Other than that, he has remained steady in Eastern Canada, and actually picked up a seat or two in Manitoba.

I'm glad that you've been keeping an eye on the Western provinces. I haven't had time to focus on them as much as elsewhere but I did mention and still think that BC will be interesting and unpredictable.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Carney spends the last days of the campaign in AB and BC. There are also some Southern Ontario ridings that could be surprise Liberal pick-ups so he may also visit them.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

The BQ will be higher than that. Low 20s at least.

You may be correct and the current polling does suggest that. I made a guess based on the BQ collapsing kind of like in 2011 but not quite as much. I'm also predicting a big surge in Liberal votes in most of Quebec which may or may not happen.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by jonny24

You can't make a blanket statement like that.

Something like not taking years or decades to approve large projects? Probably plenty of streamlining to do there.

Saying nah, we don't need food standards, inject your beef with whatever you want, go ahead and put cancer causing preservatives in you food products, chop down that national park - absolutely not. Public health? Who needs that to function? Everyone.

Yeah that's the problem with all this. Even if he was being sincere about wanting to cut waste, his approach was horrible. Rather than targeting specific examples of waste, Musk basically decided how much waste there was before starting (which apparently was $1 trillion) based on no data whatsoever, then started slashing immediately before taking the many weeks and months to audit the actual spending. And he wasn't qualified to even understand what was and wasn't waste since he has no experience in the public sector resulting in nonsense like him fear mongering about millions of dead people getting social security cheques when that is complete fiction. He just doesn't understand how to interpret the agency's system of records and the default dates the system chooses in some instances. And now that he's actually been tasked with funding all this fraud and abuse he downgraded the forecaster amount to $150 billion in savings which comes after the personal data of millions of people was made available to an unaccountable oligarch.

While there are ways one could improve government (as there is with anything), the obsession some people have with government waste is largely based in their philosophy rather than in reality. Their philosophical view is that government is bad and wasteful because it isn't a for-profit company which is the only thing they see as efficient by definition.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by LeadingEdgeBoomer

Election Canada reports that 7.3 million people voted at the advance polls. That is 7.3 million votes that can't be changed now.

Also getting harder to think that significant numbers of voters are still undecided or are likely to change their preference between now and Monday.

Alea iacta est, it would seem.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

A PQ majority government is likely in 2026, especially if the Federal Liberals win a majority this year. I wonder what the market betting odds are on a third referendum happening.

The Bloc is a federal party, it's not them who'll ever threaten the existence of the country. At most they can hold the balance of power in Ottawa at times.

I think that a PLQ majority is very likely in 2026.

I'm only joking. But I just had to say that because I think you and a few others laughed at me in 2023 when I said that the federal Liberals had a chance of being re-elected.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I feel the exact same.

As I have stated before, I voted for Carney but with my nose plugged. Although I agree with some of the Tory platforms, I just couldn't vote for PP and I think Carney will be the superior PM to deal with Trump.

That said, this is a government that does not deserve to be re-elected. Trudeau and his ilk have laid waste to this country. He was corrupt and incredibly incompetent. It will take at least a decade to undue the damage that man has caused.

It makes me truly nauseous that I had to vote for a Party I detest but here I am. I think a lot of people feel the same way. They too desperately want to punish the Liberals for their decade of horror but know that at such a critical point in our history, Carney is the man we need. I think it's very fair to say that Canadians are voting for Carney but not for Liberals.

YES. Those are the reasons why I'm predicting that the Liberals will do better in Ontario and Quebec compared to what most polls are showing.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

And apparently from exit polling, about 45% of them are for the Liberals and only around 35% of them are for the CPC. Not a good showing for PP if those ratios hold by next Monday.

Exit polling is illegal in Canada. Polling can't be done as people leave the voting stations. But they can ask how people voted if it's done by the usual random polling.