Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 194 (+34)
🔵 CPC: 116 (-3)
⚜️ BQ: 21 (-11)
🟠 NDP: 11 (-14)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 20, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

source; Polling Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

I have heard the stories about my Son's Afghanistan experiences so quell the Islamophobia garbage.

It's unfortunate that your opinion of 1.8 billion Muslims has been formed by your son's way experiences. That's like forming an opinion of the world's 1.4B Catholics from counterinsurgency stories in Ireland.

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Ask yourself this. Would the Gaza carnage, I refuse to call it a genocide, be over in half an hour if the Hostages and remains were returned to Israel?

Sympathetic as I am to the Israelis, I'm actually not sure that Netanyahu would stop. War is keeping him out of prison.

That said, when it comes to this election, both front runners have close to the same policy on the conflict,. And I do like that both have identified the key source of instability in the Middle East: Iran.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And I do like that both have identified the key source of instability in the Middle East: Iran.

And the key source of the current instability in the western world is Vladimir Putin, his bots and his stooge Adolf Drumpf.

Vladimir's plan is progressing as he foresaw it.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That said, when it comes to this election, both front runners have close to the same policy on the conflict,. And I do like that both have identified the key source of instability in the Middle East: Iran.

From what I have heard:

Conservatives: "We demand the Israeli hostages be returned immediately. The Conservative Party will always stand with Israel unconditionally, no matter what happens."

Liberals: "We recognise this conflict is troublesome, and both sides have done terrible things. We are in favour of a two-state solution, with Israel security, as well as greater autonomy in the occupied territories (which is a pipe dream at this point).

NDP: "We fully recognise what is happening in Gaza as a genocide, and we demand Israel stop the atrocities they are committing, even if it means boycotting all Israeli goods."


I have actually noticed that the NDP has taken back 1-2% of the Liberal vote. I am curious to see if it is based on the position of Singh, during the debates.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I'd expect a big flurry of polls to release today and tomorrow. We already have Mainstreet, Nanos, Liason, Pollara, and Research Co. out this morning. ARI is expected to release later today.

Only Research Co was seeing a narrowing, and even that was pretty minor. Everyone else is floating around in their margins of error.

Since I live in Atlantic Canada and know AC the most, I pay particular attention to this regions subsamples. Looks like we're getting some convergence with all the polls reporting this morning, with the Liberals being around 50% and the CPC around 37%. That would just about mirror the difference between the two parties seen in 2021.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

From what I have heard:

Conservatives: "We demand the Israeli hostages be returned immediately. The Conservative Party will always stand with Israel unconditionally, no matter what happens."

Liberals: "We recognise this conflict is troublesome, and both sides have done terrible things. We are in favour of a two-state solution, with Israel security, as well as greater autonomy in the occupied territories (which is a pipe dream at this point).

NDP: "We fully recognise what is happening in Gaza as a genocide, and we demand Israel stop the atrocities they are committing, even if it means boycotting all Israeli goods."


I have actually noticed that the NDP has taken back 1-2% of the Liberal vote. I am curious to see if it is based on the position of Singh, during the debates.

I believe all three parties still support a negotiated two-state solution.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

I'd expect a big flurry of polls to release today and tomorrow. We already have Mainstreet, Nanos, Liason, Pollara, and Research Co. out this morning. ARI is expected to release later today.

Only Research Co was seeing a narrowing, and even that was pretty minor. Everyone else is floating around in their margins of error.

Since I live in Atlantic Canada and know AC the most, I pay particular attention to this regions subsamples. Looks like we're getting some convergence with all the polls reporting this morning, with the Liberals being around 50% and the CPC around 37%. That would just about mirror the difference between the two parties seen in 2021.

I like Nanos, Angus Reid, and Ipsos. I don't trust either Mainstreet or EKOS. They seem to be outliers.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And the key source of the current instability in the western world is Vladimir Putin, his bots and his stooge Adolf Drumpf.

Vladimir's plan is progressing as he foresaw it.

Vladimir Putin is the real President of the United States. Trump is doing his bidding. For the life of me, I cannot believe Americans have become so complacent, that they are content with people that has no issues with committing treason, to lead the Government.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I like Nanos, Angus Reid, and Ipsos. I don't trust either Mainstreet or EKOS. They seem to be outliers.

Mainstreet typically does well come election day though they did underestimate Conservative support by 3 points in 2021. EKOS has a tendency to really underestimate Conservative support (missed by 6.5 points in 2021 which is huge).

Leger is the gold standard, they've been spot on for the last 2 elections. Abacus tends to be pretty good too. Then again, all polling agencies are able to accurately predict the outcome of the election, but where their numbers show does tend to vary a tiny bit from the final outcome (but like I said, pretty much all of them tend to get reeeal close).

[dleung]

Everyone needs to see the Carney podcast with Scott Galloway. So refreshing to finally have a candidate that actually knows his stuff. For once I don't have to hold my nose to vote in an election! I can't imagine even Obama being this articulate and human at the same time.

• Video Link

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

I have 20yrs in macro finance, business and tech. And one of the best forecasting track records on the web. Thanks though.

I find that extremely hard to believe with your naive assumptions of how things work.

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Not because of this nonsense housing shortage narrative that's being pushed. There's no shortage of housing. There's a surplus of dollars.

Oh you're one of those that doesn't believe in supply and demand...

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

8 days left. I wonder if the LPC can remain over 172 seats until April 28th.

They are currently at 188 seats according to 338canada by Philippe J. Fournier

Your thoughts?

I can't see much changing, I think it's all about getting out the vote now. That's where polls differ from actual elections IMO.

[Taeolas]

My gut feel at the moment is that we're heading to a 180+ maybe 185+ seat LPC majority at the moment.

Now that it's time to vote, I suspect some NDP support is rebounding as some voters may be feeling that the Liberals are going to beat the CPC so they can go back to their preferred vote. They might be able to eek out 10 seats in the end, but it will be damn close.

In any case, we're in the final week so time for everyone to go all out. I haven't voted yet; but I'm ready to vote next week.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Oh you're one of those that doesn't believe in supply and demand...

Supply and demand laws apply to the supply of currency too.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And the key source of the current instability in the western world is Vladimir Putin, his bots and his stooge Adolf Drumpf.

Vladimir's plan is progressing as he foresaw it.

100%. Somewhere along the way, people seem to have forgotten that the CRINK coalition is at the root of all this. It's pretty nuts that Trump is sucking up to Russia while bombing an Iranian proxy in Yemen, fighting a trade war with China and trying to cut deals with Iran and North Korea.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by dleung

Everyone needs to see the Carney podcast with Scott Galloway. So refreshing to finally have a candidate that actually knows his stuff. For once I don't have to hold my nose to vote in an election! I can't imagine even Obama being this articulate and human at the same time.

• Video Link

I watched the whole thing with my Dad over the weekend. He was genuinely impressed and so was I. I don't think I have seen a politician think so deeply on these issues and be reasonably transparent on them. Would be nice to see all party leaders do an interview like this with a Canadian interviewer like Paikin or Mansbridge.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

My gut feel at the moment is that we're heading to a 180+ maybe 185+ seat LPC majority at the moment.

Now that it's time to vote, I suspect some NDP support is rebounding as some voters may be feeling that the Liberals are going to beat the CPC so they can go back to their preferred vote. They might be able to eek out 10 seats in the end, but it will be damn close.

In any case, we're in the final week so time for everyone to go all out. I haven't voted yet; but I'm ready to vote next week.

I think I'll be watching the Bloc vote in Quebec more than anything else. Polling does seem to indicate a decent rebound for them, but they're still below a meaningful number which would translate to a lot of seats. However, Abacus seems to have picked up on a number of French-speaking Quebecers thinking that Blanchet had a very good French debate performance, so we could see that Bloc support keep ticking upwards.

There may get a point where a bunch of the projected Bloc losses turn back into holds. That could be the real tipping point about whether the Liberals get a strong majority, slim majority, or fall back into minority territory.

[Dengler Avenue]

What are some differences between strong and slim majorities in terms of implication for policies?

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If Canada wanted to uphold international law, they would officially recognise what is happening to the people of Gaza, as a genocide. It's the least we can do, since the USA and Israel would threaten war with us, if we started to send contingents of peacekeepers into the area.

We should be calling for Netanyahu and some of his cabinet to be tried for war comes, in the Hague. We should also sever all ties to Israel, and ban him from Canadian soil. The Israelis actually are delaying hostages from being released, as they want to murder all 2,000,000 people of Gaza. Even when released, the IDF will continue to annihilate the people of Gaza.

Yah aaah no. If Israel really wanted to Genocide the Gaza population it would have happened already. Hamas used aid money to build a second underground Gaza instead of the above ground social services the aid was intended for. Canada is probably one of the few honest brokers in the Middle East. Canada had offered to Arafat to finance and build the former Gaza airport Runway and aprons. Arafat demanded his 20% five times . Canada walked away five times. Arafat finally realized that we do not play the bribe game that drives a good chunk of the M/E economy. We eventually had the airport facilities built. Without paying Arafats 20%.

Hamas is delaying the release of the hostages as they want to murder all 2,000,000 people of Gaza. You have still not answered the question.
Would the conflict be over in half an hour if Hamas released the hostages and remains?

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I watched the whole thing with my Dad over the weekend. He was genuinely impressed and so was I. I don't think I have seen a politician think so deeply on these issues and be reasonably transparent on them. Would be nice to see all party leaders do an interview like this with a Canadian interviewer like Paikin or Mansbridge.

I agree it was a great interview as Galloway is a genuinely interested interviewer. He let the man speak. I also watched the Peterson interview with Poilivierre which was much longer. Both men are vested in Canada but it looks like Carney will be our P.M. after next Monday and I will be OK with that as the World needs a quiet, accomplished Canadian as the Adult in the Room at this time. I get the feeling at upcoming International meetings that other World leaders will turn to Carney and ask "what do you think Mark" Not a question ever uttered to Mr Trudeau.