Canadian Federal Election

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Ha! Good one.

Why? Must ethnic tribalism be the chief candidate selection factor?

How about choosing the best candidate (and one that has been properly vetted).

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Personally I think Carney should coordinate with international partners and match the tariffs imposed by China. Don't let the US admin single anyone out because that's what they want and the only way they can succeed. The international community needs to draw a line in the sand and make it clear that this kind of chicanery will not be tolerated. That any country that intends to be a the central player in the global economy needs to act in good faith, honour its commitments, promote stability and predictability, and come to the table in the spirit of multi-lateral collaboration.

If every major economy were to join and refuse to take part in any negotiations until all US tariffs return to the levels prior Trump's term then Congress will have no choice but to step in to and wrestle away tariff power to avoid US bonds and the dollar from collapsing which would completely tank the US economy.

Two problems. None of the A league want to align with China on this or much else these days. Some countries (Israel, Japan, UK, SKorea) are desperate to reach an agreement with the USA and are unlikely to hang tough with others.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Personally I think Carney should coordinate with international partners and match the tariffs imposed by China. Don't let the US admin single anyone out because that's what they want and the only way they can succeed.

Their plan is ill-conceived. If the plan to Make America Make T-Shirts Again succeeds it won't actually result in better economic outcomes. Most likely they will just have economic trouble.

I hope that the US and China collide on this and then the pain causes Trump to drop the whole thing. A lot of countries are probably waiting to see what happens in the US in 1-6 months.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Personally I think Carney should coordinate with international partners and match the tariffs imposed by China. Don't let the US admin single anyone out because that's what they want and the only way they can succeed. The international community needs to draw a line in the sand and make it clear that this kind of chicanery will not be tolerated. That any country that intends to be a the central player in the global economy needs to act in good faith, honour its commitments, promote stability and predictability, and come to the table in the spirit of multi-lateral collaboration.

If every major economy were to join and refuse to take part in any negotiations until all US tariffs return to the levels prior Trump's term then Congress will have no choice but to step in to and wrestle away tariff power to avoid US bonds and the dollar from collapsing which would completely tank the US economy.

Politics aside the opposite move is the smart one join the US against China.

[ssiguy]

Never say never but I just don't see a path forward for the Tories because their voting base is too unproductive.

Even after the debates and PP does well, it won't really change much. It maybe enough to sway those very tight races into the Tory camp but the reality is that regardless of the debates Carney is going to completely sweep GV, GTAH, O/H, and GM. When you also consider he is going to get 25 seats in AC and nearly all the urban votes in SWO and Winnipeg, where is the path forward?

The Tories, with a few exceptions on the Prairies, has basically become the Party of rural voters in an urban nation. It is going to take a some time and a lot of policy changes to get back some of that suburban vote but it certainly won't happen in this election. At this point, the very best the Tories can hope for is to hold the Liberals to a minority gov't.

[Djeffery]

[TorontoDrew]

Have you guys checked out this site?

https://338canada.com/

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

[IMG]2025-04-10 by Andrew Moore, on Flickr[/IMG]

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Never say never but I just don't see a path forward for the Tories because their voting base is too unproductive.

Even after the debates and PP does well, it won't really change much. It maybe enough to sway those very tight races into the Tory camp but the reality is that regardless of the debates Carney is going to completely sweep GV, GTAH, O/H, and GM. When you also consider he is going to get 25 seats in AC and nearly all the urban votes in SWO and Winnipeg, where is the path forward?

The Tories, with a few exceptions on the Prairies, has basically become the Party of rural voters in an urban nation. It is going to take a some time and a lot of policy changes to get back some of that suburban vote but it certainly won't happen in this election. At this point, the very best the Tories can hope for is to hold the Liberals to a minority gov't.

I’m surprised I don’t see PP campaigning every day in the GTA/Vancouver, it’s the only way they can get even a minority government. Maybe on the back half of the campaign they will do that.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

I’m surprised I don’t see PP campaigning every day in the GTA/Vancouver, it’s the only way they can get even a minority government. Maybe on the back half of the campaign they will do that.

I would love to see PP somewhere on the streets of Toronto. I'd love the chance to heckle him.

I've noticed a few shameful trucks driving around the city with Anti Abortion ads on them. I always make sure to roll down my window and give them the finger. That's the type of behaviour that became more relevant as PP came to power and tried his best to be a mini-Frump over COVID.

Trucks like that insult the intelligence of most people but scare us at the same time as the "extreme" far right tries to take us back decades with women's rights at the tip of the spear here in Canada.

That truck may as well put an image of PP in a MAGA hat on it. It's swaying votes, no doubt, but not towards this current Conservative Party.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Have you guys checked out this site?

https://338canada.com/

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

[IMG]2025-04-10 by Andrew Moore, on Flickr[/IMG]

It's funny... CPC supporters used to really love this website, yet lately, they are calling it a FAKE website. I wonder why?

There's also this great podcast by the 338 guy (Fournier) AND the CBC poll tracker guy (Grenier).

• Video Link

Sometimes they come on the CBC together to give a poll update.

• Video Link

The "At Issue" panel was good last night, and if I understand it correctly, they will be back on the air again tonight.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Politics aside the opposite move is the smart one join the US against China.

I think the last thing we want to do is follow the US into a trade war with anyone.

The US is unreliable trading partner. They don't consult and clearly don't have our interests at hart. We also don't have anything to gain by collaborating with the US. They may show some favors for a few days but will quickly turn on use at the drop of hat.

We have our own trade conflict with China. That is on our terms and will be solved on our terms. Let that continue and resolve as we see fit.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Two problems. None of the A league want to align with China on this or much else these days. Some countries (Israel, Japan, UK, SKorea) are desperate to reach an agreement with the USA and are unlikely to hang tough with others.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Politics aside the opposite move is the smart one join the US against China.

It isn't an alignment with China; it's an alignment against the Trump admin who just recently threatened to use economic force to annex Canada and who just sabotaged the global economic system that billions of people rely on. At the moment the Trump admin is the bigger threat.

It would be foolish to let our apprehension toward China distract us from that reality. If the Trump admin is allowed to proceed unopposed, we could easily end up with more menacing and more heavily armed dictatorship next door instead of just the current one on the other side of the world. Meanwhile, China could see it as an olive branch to encourage better relations. China is a huge and powerful economy that would be very useful in resisting the Trump insanity, and frankly, it's the US that's in the wrong in their current spat.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by lirette

I can't stand Poilievre and I really don't respond to his type of populism, but one thing he is not is a deeply religious ideologue. The idea that he would turn Canada into Gilead is completely ridiculous.

Poilievre certainly has ideology, there's no doubt about that, but he has no intentions on turning Canada into a christofacist nation. Perhaps some of the MP's in their party wouldn't mind that, and certainly there is a element of his supporters that would, but the CPC is a large tent, and one that will likely fracture if this election doesn't go their way.

He is more of a free market right wing populist than anything. Now if Faytene Grassechi were leading the CPC it would be a different conversation.

I am abit concerned about this "dont trust the polls" movement. On one hand, voters should always go and vote, and not rely on polling to keep them home, so you can understand why that message makes sense. On the other hand, i do have *some* concern that PP will not do enough to squash some idea of a rigged election.

You think Trump is religious?

You think Danielle Smith is religious?

[kiwi4353]

For those worried about vote splitting.


https://smartvoting.ca/

Check your riding on this site to find out your best strategic vote.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

This is obviously not going to move the needle on anything, but Carney and Singh agreed to be interviewed by Nardwuar, and Poilievre was the only major party leader (Blanchet doesn't count) to decline...

Originally Posted by niwell

Was about to post this but see you beat me to it! Definitely telling as it's a pretty well known thing that Nardwuar isn't going to throw any policy fastballs at you. It's a good opportunity to come off as a likeable person...

Thanks for this, it's great to see Nardwuar still at it - and I love that many of our leaders can play along with quirky Canadiana such as Nardwuar and 22 Minutes.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

He doesn't even understand the mess he is creating. He admitted yesterday he was watching the bond market and that's why he backed off. They actually believed bonds would go down and they'd be able to reduce interest payments on US debt. His plan blew up faster than lettuce lady in the UK. Think of Trump as America's Yelstin and everything starts to make sense.

I don't think what Trump wants is relevant. We need to pick a PM would understands the incredible change in the global environment and can steer Canada through it.

Talking about the "lettuce lady" former UK PM Liz Truss who only lasted 49 days as PM, she blamed Mark Carney for her lasting such a short time. It was quite laughable and it's obvious that somebody from the CPC contacted her and wanted her to say something negative about Carney.

I think only the National Post covered it (no surprise) : https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/truss-carney-terrible-job-bank-of-england

The funny thing is that Carney left his position as governor of the Bank of England two years before Truss became PM.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Well, since we are beyond the nomination deadline, I guess the Liberals are stuck with him.

Maybe they should have gone with a non Chinese candidate in this riding.........

Markham-Unionville electoral district is a majority non-white riding and about 2/3 of the people are of Chinese background.

Here is some data from the wikipedia page from the 2021 census:

Ethnic groups: 66.6% Chinese, 12.1% White, 9.9% South Asian, 2% Black, 1.4% Filipino, 1.2% West Asian

Languages: 29.5% Yue, 28.4% English, 20.7% Mandarin, 1.6% Tamil

Religions: 51.2% No religion, 33.3% Christian (14.8% Catholic, 2.5% Christian Orthodox, 1.5% Baptist), 4.8% Buddhist, 4.8% Hindu, 4.8% Muslim

It was the only riding in 2015 that went from being Liberal to Conservative. Former Liberal cabinet minister John McCallum was MP for this riding for quite awhile.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

• Video Link

I forgot about how good the At Issue panel can be... Chantal Hebert is a national treasure. Rosemary Barton... not so much. lol



I believe they will be back on air again tonight, from Halifax.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It isn't an alignment with China; it's an alignment against the Trump admin who just recently threatened to use economic force to annex Canada and who just sabotaged the global economic system that billions of people rely on. At the moment the Trump admin is the bigger threat.

It would be foolish to let our apprehension toward China distract us from that reality. If the Trump admin is allowed to proceed unopposed, we could easily end up with more menacing and more heavily armed dictatorship next door instead of just the current one on the other side of the world. Meanwhile, China could see it as an olive branch to encourage better relations. China is a huge and powerful economy that would be very useful in resisting the Trump insanity, and frankly, it's the US that's in the wrong in their current spat.

Logically we are much better inside a fortress North America than even in a rest of the world vs US coalition. We are next to the US and more integrated in US supply chains than anyone else. Now trust also matters. If Trump will rip it up. However, a grand deal where we get NAFTA+ but join tariffs on China meaning we also aren't a competitor is vastly preferable. It is probably what a PM like Harper or Chretien would get done.

[Taeolas]

And up until last January, Canada generally was fine with keeping our trade policy more or less in line with America's, including matching tariffs on China and similar moves. It's a policy that has done us well for the most part over the past few decades and generally made that "Fortress North America" thing easier to do.

And then the Toddler in Chief threw a tantrum over some numbers he didn't really understand, and wanted to make them lower and threatened Canadian soveriengty and so forth, and that got us where we are now.

Now, while the US will always be our biggest trading partner just due to proximity, we now know we have to be more protective and maybe not be as lockstep in line with their policies going forward. Hence what this election has become.

That isn't to say we won't keep similar policies intact (like approaches wiht China); but we should certainly look at them with more maple-shaded lenses and maybe make sure we can get some benefit from them; or at least aren't hurt too badly by it.

I suspect our general policy to China won't be changing too much, at least not right away. We're focusing more on our classic and similarly minded partners like the UK and EU (and Aus and Japan)