Canadian Federal Election

[MonctonRad]

Well, since we are beyond the nomination deadline, I guess the Liberals are stuck with him.

Maybe they should have gone with a non Chinese candidate in this riding.........

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Maybe they should have gone with a non Chinese candidate in this riding.........

Ha! Good one.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The Conservatives have come out with better ads recently, but, they are making up for this by the way they are mistreating the mainstream media journalists, even to the point of shoving and pushing them behind barriers. This is despicable.

Poilievre is even going so far as to label a journalist as a "protester" because she tried to ask a follow-up question:

At a Conservative campaign stop in Sault Ste. Marie yesterday, as leader Pierre Poilievre moved to the last of four questions he’d take from the media, a voice could be heard shouting from the distance.

Poilievre quickly dismissed the interruption as a “protester.”

Except it wasn’t a protester. Instead, it was Judy Trinh, an award-winning journalist and national correspondent with CTV News, who later pointed out in a social media post: “Mr. Poilievre knows I’m a member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. I’ve asked him questions on the Hill.”

Rachel Gilmore has the video.

[Marshsparrow]

CPC allows 4 questions a day.
They pick the protestors that get to ask them.
Questions vetted by them first.
You get to stand in a pen.

If this is what Pierre will do with journalists... just wait to what he will do to the medical, science, academics, etc. communites... Handmaid's Tale would be a good primer to know what to expect.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

If this is what Pierre will do with journalists... just wait to what he will do to the medical, science, academics, etc. communites... Handmaid's Tale would be a good primer to know what to expect.

That's a little extreme and partisan.

Gilead exists in the USA thanks to Herr Adolf Drumpf. I think we can all agree that PP (regardless of his shortcomings) is no Adolf Drumpf.

You can do better Marshsparrow.. You can't crack down on right wing partisanship and misinformation on SSP without also casting an eye on similar practices on the left.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That's a little extreme and partisan.

Gilead exists in the USA thanks to Herr Adolf Drumpf. I think we can all agree that PP (regardless of his shortcomings) is no Adolf Drumpf.

You can do better Marshsparrow.. You can't crack down on right wing partisanship and misinformation on SSP without also casting an eye on similar practices on the left.

Poilievre has already said that he would end funding "woke ideology" in university research.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, has pledged to “end the imposition of woke ideology in the allocation of federal funds for university research” should his party win the Canadian federal election on 28 April.

The vow—which echoes rhetoric used by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to justify canceling research grants and shutting down government programs—has alarmed many researchers. “I think this is the first time a politician in Canada has crossed that line to officially say they want to interfere to control research topics,” says Madeleine Pastinelli, president of the university professors’ union in the province of Quebec. “It could be a very terrible time for us.”

[source]

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think they do. See JD Vance going and lecturing Europe based on memes about immigration over there, which has almost zero to do with American interests.

I think people vastly underestimate their prickishness towards having very openly left leaning governments in certain countries. The best line I've heard for why they care? "They see Canada as the North American stratetgic reserve of white people."

I don’t buy it. We’ve got way too many YouTube experts reading into things about the thought processes of Trump and his ilk. I’ve heard that a CPC MP was JD Vance’s college roommate, but i don’t buy that that’s enough to get Trump to be in the tank for Poilievre.

Long term thinking over the next four years… Carney is a better economic partner for the United States than Poilievre.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That's a little extreme and partisan.

Gilead exists in the USA thanks to Herr Adolf Drumpf. I think we can all agree that PP (regardless of his shortcomings) is no Adolf Drumpf.

You can do better Marshsparrow.. You can't crack down on right wing partisanship and misinformation on SSP without also casting an eye on similar practices on the left.

I can't stand Poilievre and I really don't respond to his type of populism, but one thing he is not is a deeply religious ideologue. The idea that he would turn Canada into Gilead is completely ridiculous.

Poilievre certainly has ideology, there's no doubt about that, but he has no intentions on turning Canada into a christofacist nation. Perhaps some of the MP's in their party wouldn't mind that, and certainly there is a element of his supporters that would, but the CPC is a large tent, and one that will likely fracture if this election doesn't go their way.

He is more of a free market right wing populist than anything. Now if Faytene Grassechi were leading the CPC it would be a different conversation.

I am abit concerned about this "dont trust the polls" movement. On one hand, voters should always go and vote, and not rely on polling to keep them home, so you can understand why that message makes sense. On the other hand, i do have *some* concern that PP will not do enough to squash some idea of a rigged election.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It's the safest bet for sure but groups of polls can be wrong. It could be 43-40 or even 42-42 at the extreme. The bad news for the Cons is a tie with such low NDP and Bloc vote share is a decisive loss for the Cons. The Libs likely even win a majority at 43-40 and even closer.

The thing to do is remove the Alberta and Saskatchewan data and then look at the numbers to guess the seat count. The Conservatives are doing extremely well in those two provinces and the party will win almost all seats whether CPC support rises or falls. Nobody seems to be posting the numbers without AB and SK which I think should be done to give a more accurate picture.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The thing to do is remove the Alberta and Saskatchewan data and then look at the numbers to guess the seat count. The Conservatives are doing extremely well in those two provinces and the party will win almost all seats whether CPC support rises or falls. Nobody seems to be posting the numbers without AB and SK which I think should be done to give a more accurate picture.

The interesting thing about the abacus poll is that the liberals are behind in BC. Could mean a minority government depending on how Ontario and Quebec votes go.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lirette

I am abit concerned about this "dont trust the polls" movement. On one hand, voters should always go and vote, and not rely on polling to keep them home, so you can understand why that message makes sense. On the other hand, i do have *some* concern that PP will not do enough to squash some idea of a rigged election.

Polls are interesting, but, except in a few competitive ridings, should not influence your decision on whether or not to vote, or, who to vote for.

This is the most important election of our lives. We all have to vote. I don't care who you vote for. If you choose to vote for PP, that is your right and your privilege, and I respect that. This is what democracy is all about. We all have the right to be heard.

I am voting for Mark Carney, I am doing this as a centrist conservative. I personally feel he is the right man at the right time to stand up for Canada against Donald Trump, and to help establish a new world order that will not include the US at it's centre.

Trump has decided to abdicate world leadership. Canada needs to step forward and offer leadership in response. Mark Carney is the person to do this.

These are extraordinary times. We need extraordinary leadership. I will happily vote against my own party because I do not believe Poilievre has what it takes at this time to make a real difference.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The thing to do is remove the Alberta and Saskatchewan data and then look at the numbers to guess the seat count. The Conservatives are doing extremely well in those two provinces and the party will win almost all seats whether CPC support rises or falls. Nobody seems to be posting the numbers without AB and SK which I think should be done to give a more accurate picture.

True but it's more complicated than that. The massive wins they will get in rural ridings across Canada (west of of Ottawa) that give them a massive structural disadvantage. Also less discussed is how well they are doing in Quebec which is a very inefficient. 23% compared to recent results gives them a 2-3% bump in the national number without any extra seats.

[Airboy]

Thing in Alberta is how many seats the Liberals pick up in Edmonton. Regrettably my MP is the Con that could be dead and still win. But looking al all the poling, YEG may surprise a few.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Polls are interesting, but, except in a few competitive ridings, should not influence your decision on whether or not to vote, or, who to vote for.

This is the most important election of our lives. We all have to vote. I don't care who you vote for. If you choose to vote for PP, that is your right and your privilege, and I respect that. This is what democracy is all about. We all have the right to be heard.

I am voting for Mark Carney, I am doing this as a centrist conservative. I personally feel he is the right man at the right time to stand up for Canada against Donald Trump, and to help establish a new world order that will not include the US at it's centre.

Trump has decided to abdicate world leadership. Canada needs to step forward and offer leadership in response. Mark Carney is the person to do this.

These are extraordinary times. We need extraordinary leadership. I will happily vote against my own party because I do not believe Poilievre has what it takes at this time to make a real difference.

I'm kind of in a similar position. I've never voted Liberal in any level of gov in my entire life but while I'm not fully decided, I'm leaning in that direction.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I don’t buy it. We’ve got way too many YouTube experts reading into things about the thought processes of Trump and his ilk. I’ve heard that a CPC MP was JD Vance’s college roommate, but i don’t buy that that’s enough to get Trump to be in the tank for Poilievre.

Long term thinking over the next four years… Carney is a better economic partner for the United States than Poilievre.

Members of this administration have been pretty open in their support for right wing parties. And especially populist right wing parties. From Meloni in Italy to Milei in Argentina. So regardless of what they say, I think there's revealed preference.

But also, I think Trudeau in particular had a particularly bad habit of playing American politics and trying to contrast himself with Trump on the global stage. And so there was very likely some personal animosity there. That's not going to be there with Carney, even if he's a Liberal. Though I'm not sure any of this makes a difference to trade policy.

[Truenorth00]

The MAGA view on the LPC: if you respond to Trump's tariffs, you're compromised by China.

The Liberal Party isn't compromised by China at all.

https://x.com/RosieRocks29/status/1910126555273326742?t=XE4DUXPK9cSy4DxYYOTETQ&s=19

So I do think they are quite partisan in how they view our elections and even the policies we adopt. If we don't bend over, we're apparently CCP lovers.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The MAGA view on the LPC: if you respond to Trump's tariffs, you're compromised by China.

So I do think they are quite partisan in how they view our elections and even the policies we adopt. If we don't bend over, we're apparently CCP lovers.

We are just "nasty".

Carney keeps talking about "trade and security". I think we are in a very different situation than nearly anyone else. The Americans are going to want to break those two interests apart. I think we need to keep them together.

Our opening position should be "Looks the US is the one using tariffs as a tool for national security and border security", so lets start there. We share intelligence day, borer security data and co-operate NORAD. The US is worked up buying aluminum from us is a national security threat?

On the dairy front. We go back to US Department of Agriculture is providing subsidies to farmers. We are deeply concerned and we want to talk about increasing barriers until such time as all support for farmers is removed.

[Nouvellecosse]

Personally I think Carney should coordinate with international partners and match the tariffs imposed by China. Don't let the US admin single anyone out because that's what they want and the only way they can succeed. The international community needs to draw a line in the sand and make it clear that this kind of chicanery will not be tolerated. That any country that intends to be a the central player in the global economy needs to act in good faith, honour its commitments, promote stability and predictability, and come to the table in the spirit of multi-lateral collaboration.

If every major economy were to join and refuse to take part in any negotiations until all US tariffs return to the levels prior Trump's term then Congress will have no choice but to step in to and wrestle away tariff power to avoid US bonds and the dollar from collapsing which would completely tank the US economy.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Personally I think Carney should coordinate with international partners and match the tariffs imposed by China. Don't let the US admin single anyone out because that's what they want and the only way they can succeed. The international community needs to draw a line in the sand and make it clear that this kind of chicanery will not be tolerated. That any country that intends to be a the central player in the global economy needs to act in good faith, honour its commitments, promote stability and predictability, and come to the table in the spirit of multi-lateral collaboration.

If every major economy were to join and refuse to take part in any negotiations until all US tariffs return to the levels prior Trump's term then Congress will have no choice but to step in to and wrestle away tariff power to avoid US bonds and the dollar from collapsing which would completely tank the US economy.

The EU and Canada are start.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

The interesting thing about the abacus poll is that the liberals are behind in BC. Could mean a minority government depending on how Ontario and Quebec votes go.

The Abacus poll translated into a seat map is a 190 seat LPC majority.

Other pollsters like Mainstreet, Leger, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Pollara, and Liaison have LPC leading BC fwiw.

Right now, the LPC is ahead enough in Atlantic Canada/Quebec/Ontario that they will be at 155-160 seats before they even hit the Manitoba border. As long as they get 15 seats between Manitoba/Territories/Alberta/BC... they get their majority. An easy accomplishment.

What is more important to look at are the Quebec and Ontario numbers. If the 15-20 point Quebec lead drops down to a 5-6 point lead, and the Ontario numbers drop from a 8-10 point lead down to a 2-3 point lead... okay now we are could be talking LPC minority.