Canadian Federal Election

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

The people of that area would never stand for it. That would be the straw that ultimately breaks the camels back in Alberta, if Smith was dumb enough to attempt something like this.

She already has. Grassy Mountain coal mine was re-issued approval by the AER after the AER previously declined approval stating selenium risks and too little return to Albertans for the risk. There’s been massive protests. The NDP won a bi-election in Lethbridge with this being a major issue. Current Energy minister Brian Jean who once stated there are some places such as the Eastern Slopes that shouldn’t be mined has now forced the approval. The UCP claims there’s legal obligations to Australian Benga mining so they have to. Utter bullshit.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

"Vote for Pierre or the West is going to separate from Canada!!"

-yeah, that really does a great job of framing PP as a unifying leader.

How do you like them apples, Pierre?

Meanwhile, those of us back east who, if we had to choose, would rather keep Quebec anyway, are saying "try us".

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Voters ultimately want to see authenticity. Carney is authentically boring. He's a bland globalist technocrat who does not pretend to be anything different. You get what you see.

All PP has ever known is attack dog style. He's been the guy in the opposition making sly remarks and pointed (and effective) attacks at the Liberals. He really doesn't know anything different. His base LOVES this Pierre. The general public that he needs to win the election however finds this style arrogant and unattractive.

I imagine his handlers have told him this, and he is trying to be more serious and calm. The issue is that it comes off as not authentic. Let's see how voters react.

PP has gone the exact same route that Tim Hudak did twice in Ontario. While it goes over very well with certain types of people who are generally pretty far right and in areas that are heavily conservative, it doesn't go over well with swing voters and those closer to the centre.

As far as I know, no party has released its platform document yet. I thought it was a huge mistake by PP and the CPC to not have a platform early. It would have a least shown that they had courage and vision.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

“Carneymania” explained:
https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2025/0...-et-les-quebecois-vont-voter-pour-carney

Quebec voters don’t take federal elections that seriously (the elephants in the room, healthcare, education, etc. are provincially run) so it’s easy to vote for the flavor of the month. 2011, in recent memory, was actually even more ridiculous than a Carney landslide would be this year. I mean, FFS, plenty of people who had no idea in which approximate corner of Quebec their ridings were, got elected!!

There’s no telling whether this Carneymania will last until e-day, but it actually might.

Quebec voter don't take federal elections seriously?!? I don't see any evidence that they take federal election more or less seriously than other Canadians. In fact, voter turnout is slightly higher for Quebec than the Canadian average:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220216/cg-d002-eng.htm

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

At this rate, Alberta will not be drilling much oil out of the ground, if the oil prices tank so hard, that it makes no fiscal sense to do so. However, I am sure Smith will find a way to blame Ottawa and the Liberals, instead of her Orange God, who tanked the World economy.

And the gas price at the Esso station near me is $1.369. Timmins is usually one of if not the most expensive cities in Ontario for gasoline.

Right now the gas price is actually cheaper than in some American states. The average price in California is currently $1.87 a litre in Canadian dollars . https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

For comparison, in Michigan the average price is $1.22 per litre in Canadian dollars and $1.20 in Florida. Not much of a difference compared to in the past. Gas is likely the same price or maybe a bit cheaper in border cities Sarnia and Windsor than in Port Huron and Detroit.

I just checked GasBuddy and it has the average Ontario price at $1.28 which is the lowest in Canada and even lower than Alberta! https://www.gasbuddy.com/can

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Meanwhile, those of us back east who, if we had to choose, would rather keep Quebec anyway, are saying "try us".

UCPee:

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

She already has. Grassy Mountain coal mine was re-issued approval by the AER after the AER previously declined approval stating selenium risks and too little return to Albertans for the risk. There’s been massive protests. The NDP won a bi-election in Lethbridge with this being a major issue. Current Energy minister Brian Jean who once stated there are some places such as the Eastern Slopes that shouldn’t be mined has now forced the approval. The UCP claims there’s legal obligations to Australian Benga mining so they have to. Utter bullshit.

The minor protests regarding the Trans Canada Pipeline will be child's play, compared to what will happen if they ever mine for coal in the Rockies. It will be another Clayoquot Sound (circa 1993), where thousands of protesters would rail against this. There is absolutely no way the UCP pulls this off, without committing political suicide. Aside from that, it was supposed to start in 2021, and has been tied up in court for years, although a third ruling by the courts is expected soon.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Quebec voter don't take federal elections seriously?!? I don't see any evidence that they take federal election more or less seriously than other Canadians. In fact, voter turnout is slightly higher for Quebec than the Canadian average:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220216/cg-d002-eng.htm

lio45 and a couple of other alt-right Quebecois posters try to school us on how Quebec politics go, which is the equivalent of myself (who has resided in Alberta for 15 years) try to school non-Albertans into thinking that "the UCP are too left-wing for the population."

In other words, they are the fringe element (sort of like the PPC), not to be taken seriously.

[Wigs]

I always find it fascinating that Lio seems so invested in Canadian politics, yet doesn't vote

[ssiguy]

Obviously Carney has the momentum and is building upon itself but relatively little of this is at the expense of the Tories. They have gone from roughly 40 to 41% support to 36 to 37% which is only 10% loss in support. Most of the Liberal surge is due to the complete implosion of the NDP and sagging fortunes for the Bloc in Quebec. This shows how Tory support is pretty rock solid while the Liberals far less so. Those recent converts can still be swayed especially by those Red Tories/Blue Liberals. I won't be writing off a Tory minority until after the debates.

Carney looks calm, cool, and collected in Liberal media scrums but debates are anything but and Carney is not quick off his feet. PP, on the other hand, may come across as an attack dog but he can respond effectively at a moments notice which is why he was such an effective Leader of the Opposition. Carney's lackluster French will also cause him trouble in a debate.

This election is far from over and I think it will be decided in the debates. Even getting by without any major gaffs would be a huge win for Carney but I think that is unlikely. He is no debater and when you hear him talk, it really does remind you that this is a man comfortable in a boardroom of bankers but unfortunately for him, a debate is not a boardroom and Canadians aren't bankers.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Obviously Carney has the momentum and is building upon itself but relatively little of this is at the expense of the Tories. They have gone from roughly 40 to 41% support to 36 to 37% which is only 10%. Most of the Liberal surge is due to the complete implosion of the NDP and sagging fortunes for the Bloc in Quebec. This shows how Tory support is pretty rock solid while the Liberals far less so. They recent converts can still be swayed especially by those Red Tories/Blue Liberals. I won't be writing off a Tory minority until after the debates.

Carney looks calm, cool, and collected in Liberal media scrums but debates are anything but and Carney is not quick off his feet. PP, on the other hand, may come across as an attack dog but he can respond effectively at a moments notice which is why he was such an effective Leader of the Opposition. Carney's lackluster French will also cause him trouble in a debate.

This election is far from over and I think it will be decided in the debates. Even getting by without any major gaffs would be a huge win for Carney but I think that is unlikely. He is no debater and when you hear him talk, it really does remind you that this is a man comfortable in a boardroom of bankers and a debate is not a boardroom and Canadians aren't bankers.

I’m not so sure. Most voters don’t watch the debates. Part of the reason so many have flocked to Carney is that he is the equivalent of stable ground in an earthquake. Poilievre is the crumbling cities and the aftershocks. Unless he can magically erase 3 years of campaigning and his core personality as a Maga aligned attack dog, I think he has too high of a hill to climb. Perception becomes reality and the alt-right image makeover, Danielle Smith interviews, and hollow attacks on Trump all add up to bury him. You see the conservative desperation and reading of the tea leaves when Preston Manning scuttles out of the woodwork and threatens the rest of the country to vote for him or else.

[Djeffery]

I think when people talk about the debates, they really mean the French debate, as if this is going to be his downfall. Yet most of the French commentators like Chantal Hebert say his French isn't awful, just so-so, as Carney himself says, and only the really hard core Francophones that wouldn't have voted for him anyway have a problem with his French skill. I think Conservatives are really going to be disappointed at the lack of "crash and burn" at the French debate but it's going to be fun watching the spin in the days afterwards. I doubt the English debate will really register with a lot of people who aren't political junkies.

[samne]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I’m not so sure. Most voters don’t watch the debates. Part of the reason so many have flocked to Carney is that he is the equivalent of stable ground in an earthquake. Poilievre is the crumbling cities and the aftershocks. Unless he can magically erase 3 years of campaigning and his core personality as a Maga aligned attack dog, I think he has too high of a hill to climb. Perception becomes reality and the alt-right image makeover, Danielle Smith interviews, and hollow attacks on Trump all add up to bury him. You see the conservative desperation and reading of the tea leaves when Preston Manning scuttles out of the woodwork and threatens the rest of the country to vote for him or else.

English debate can swing even a few percentage points that could make a difference between majority or minority government. The French debate can make or break Carney in Quebec for a win or lose.

Even if Canadians don’t tune in there will be endless sound bites on social media. This is where Pierre has an edge.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

I’m not so sure. Most voters don’t watch the debates. Part of the reason so many have flocked to Carney is that he is the equivalent of stable ground in an earthquake. Poilievre is the crumbling cities and the aftershocks. Unless he can magically erase 3 years of campaigning and his core personality as a Maga aligned attack dog, I think he has too high of a hill to climb. Perception becomes reality and the alt-right image makeover, Danielle Smith interviews, and hollow attacks on Trump all add up to bury him. You see the conservative desperation and reading of the tea leaves when Preston Manning scuttles out of the woodwork and threatens the rest of the country to vote for him or else.

^ This is an excellent read on the general population. Debates will matter very little. For the past 6 weeks, the CPC is becoming more and more unglued. There are now major cracks in the foundation. Ford and Kenney are taking shots at Smith and Manning. It's a complete sideshow.

The debate will not matter. The election is 23 days away, and the Liberal lead is only widening. I fail to see any road that would lead the Conservatives to victory at this point.

[Mr Tall Forehead]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

From very reliable sources, I am hearing there will be a metaphorical bloodbath if The Liberals win a majority. We may even see the CPC break into two- one group of moderates, like the old Federal PC party, and one that is more like the old Reform Party.

Who would have thought the a party campaigning for 3 years on hate and division. would unintentionally see their party implode due to hate and division.

I think this would benefit Canadian politics. The whack job fringe of the CCP can then go merge with the PPC and together the 8-10% of Canadians they represent can fester in their hate chambers.

Meanwhile the PC majority of the party can run traditional PC platforms which would provide a viable alternative and keep the Liberals honest.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Loco101

And the gas price at the Esso station near me is $1.369. Timmins is usually one of if not the most expensive cities in Ontario for gasoline.

Right now the gas price is actually cheaper than in some American states. The average price in California is currently $1.87 a litre in Canadian dollars . https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

For comparison, in Michigan the average price is $1.22 per litre in Canadian dollars and $1.20 in Florida. Not much of a difference compared to in the past. Gas is likely the same price or maybe a bit cheaper in border cities Sarnia and Windsor than in Port Huron and Detroit.

I just checked GasBuddy and it has the average Ontario price at $1.28 which is the lowest in Canada and even lower than Alberta! https://www.gasbuddy.com/can

What has happened to the price of Western Canada oil since the tariff went into effect? I've been wondering if sellers would be obliged to eat it in the form of lower prices, or whether importers would carry the freight.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I think when people talk about the debates, they really mean the French debate, as if this is going to be his downfall. Yet most of the French commentators like Chantal Hebert say his French isn't awful, just so-so, as Carney himself says, and only the really hard core Francophones that wouldn't have voted for him anyway have a problem with his French skill. I think Conservatives are really going to be disappointed at the lack of "crash and burn" at the French debate but it's going to be fun watching the spin in the days afterwards. I doubt the English debate will really register with a lot of people who aren't political junkies.

My sources say it's not much of an issue, at least among voters who would seriously consider voting Liberal.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by Mr Tall Forehead

I think this would benefit Canadian politics. The whack job fringe of the CCP can then go merge with the PPC and together the 8-10% of Canadians they represent can fester in their hate chambers.

Meanwhile the PC majority of the party can run traditional PC platforms which would provide a viable alternative and keep the Liberals honest.

I always think that the Conservative Party would be better off modelling a German or Australian type of conservatism. The reform wing would only run west of Ontario while the east would have only the PCs run. Together they could have a coalition in which lines would be clearly drawn between the two factions.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Voters ultimately want to see authenticity. Carney is authentically boring. He's a bland globalist technocrat who does not pretend to be anything different. You get what you see.

I get really big Keir Starmer vibes from Carney.
Granted Starmer was an MP for 9 years before he became Prime Minister.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

My sources say it's not much of an issue, at least among voters who would seriously consider voting Liberal.

Acajack begs to differ.