Canadian Federal Election

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Egads, I didn't know it was physically possible to fit so much asshole and douche into such a small area without the space-time continuum bursting apart in disgusted rebellion.

And those pics with O'Leary, Smith, and Dump just radiate smarmy plutocratic slime schmoozing with a sycophant who cheerfully does its bidding.

The photo smells like preparation H.

[SteelTown]

Trump's auto tariff announcement seems to be gluing a new positive relationship between Doug Ford and Mark Carney.

Wouldn't be surprised if Ford snubs PP and endorse Carney.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Trump's auto tariff announcement seems to be gluing a new positive relationship between Doug Ford and Mark Carney.

Wouldn't be surprised if Ford snubs PP and endorse Carney.

Where ya been? He's already snubbed PP. I'd be surprised by an open endorsement of Carney, but he will emphasize the good working relationship.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's becoming a Carney landslide.

If this keeps up, then PP will have to use AI to create photos showing Carney kicking a small dog and watching kiddie porn to reverse the trend........

EKOS... needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Their polling can be a tad wacky. They are good at catching onto trends, but man their numbers can sometimes be all over the place. FWIW, the report did say these numbers are from the 5 day poll. The more recent 3 day poll is a tighter race, 48-36.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

PP on the other hand I think will have another shot at it. He has a strong right wing conservative/reform base that pretty much controls the federal party strongly at this point.

There is absolutely no chance Poilievre is not pushed out. He blew a 27 point lead, and is highly unpopular in favourability ratings. For the remainder of his life, he is going to be branded as a loser. The COnservatives want to have power, above all else. Poilievre failed to deliver.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

He blew a 27 point lead,

To be more precise, he had, and probably still has, a ~27 point lead over Justin Trudeau; he never had a 27 point lead over almost-recruited-by-Harper, centrist “blue Liberal” Carney.

Poilievre defeated JT too well, in retrospect. JT had become toxic from the taint of the damage JT did to Canada; Carney has nearly nothing to do with it.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by travis3000

EKOS... needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Their polling can be a tad wacky. They are good at catching onto trends, but man their numbers can sometimes be all over the place. FWIW, the report did say these numbers are from the 5 day poll. The more recent 3 day poll is a tighter race, 48-36.

It's ain't over til Danielle Smith sings God Bless America.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

There is absolutely no chance Poilievre is not pushed out. He blew a 27 point lead, and is highly unpopular in favourability ratings. For the remainder of his life, he is going to be branded as a loser. The COnservatives want to have power, above all else. Poilievre failed to deliver.

Unless, of course, the Conservatives win.

[BlackDog204]

It is beyond belief that AFAIK, nobody in the Federal Conservative party has reached out to Danielle Smith, and asked her to reconsider meeting with this guy. It will indirectly hurt the Conservatives.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It's ain't over til Danielle Smith sings God Bless America.

• Video Link

‘My Country ‘Tis of Thee’ would be the ultimate betrayal song, since it’s the sung to the same music as God Save The Queen. I’m guessing she already knows the words too.

I think most Canadians would already like to tell Danielle Smith to

But the best part is… she’s not done yet.

[BlackDog204]

Stephen Maher wrote this opinion piece for the Toronto Star in 2024, long before Poilievre's security clearance became an election issue:

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Gresto

I feel sorry for Singh, who doesn't deserve to be electorally obliterated as it appears he and the party will, but I have to admit that he hasn't been all that effective.

I wouldn’t feel to sorry for him. He’s up there with David Lewis as two of the only NDP leaders to hold the balance of power in the Canadian House of Commons, aka holding real political power. Jack Layton’s 100+ seat opposition held essentially zero political power, same with Mulcair and Broadbent. David Lewis and Jagmeet Singh actually influenced legislation and held power that few NDP leaders ever have held.

David Lewis especially doesn’t get props for being a consequential NDP leader:


We sure didn’t cover this in Canadian high school history class, on the prairies. I still think privatizing Petro Canada was one of the worst political and economic decisions in Canadian history… and this debate clip between Turner and Mulroney show how prescient Turner was regarding Mulroney’s approach to developing Canada’s natural resource wealth.

• Video Link

We might be up there with Norway in terms of wealth per citizen right now…if Mulroney had just left Petro Canada alone. Instead, the Conservatives let American interests dominate Canada’s oil industry.

The NDP should already be focussing on a campaign strategy that gives them a chance at 12 seats, and give up on a national campaign effort, at least if they care that much about maintaining official party status. I don’t think it matters that much, the NDP is not going to go anywhere, and a lot of voters who are voting for them this time, will go back to the NDP next time, or the next, next time… as long as the CPC stops embracing far right populism.

There’s still a chance the Liberals only win a minority, and under that situation, the NDP could still end up holding the balance of power with only 5 or 6 seats. I don’t think Quebec will let that happen. Quebec is very good at voting for their own interests, and they aren’t going to be tricked into voting against their own interests because Pierre Poilievre speaks French better than a guy named Mark Carney.

Carney is the right choice to redefine Canada’s relationship with Europe, and Quebec arguably cares about that relationship more than any other region in Canada. The Europeans don’t want to deal with Pierre Poilievre, and Quebec knows this better than most Canadians do.

[BlackDog204]

Maybe Carney and the Liberal can pluck top University professors away, and bring them to Canadian institutions. One of the consequence of Trump's war on education, and many scientists and professors are now looking at Canada for employment.

The brain drain is reversing itself, before our very eyes.

[BlackDog204]

The NDP should already be focussing on a campaign strategy that gives them a chance at 12 seats, and give up on a national campaign effort, at least if they care that much about maintaining official party status. I don’t think it matters that much, the NDP is not going to go anywhere, and a lot of voters who are voting for them this time, will go back to the NDP next time, or the next, next time… as long as the CPC stops embracing far right populism.

This happened in the 1990's when the NDP lost official party status. Many of the NDP supporters voted Liberal, until Jack Layton came along, and revived the party. Wab Kinew, at 43, would be wise to stick with provincial politics, then when the time is right (probably 2030 or so), jump into the Federal race.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Off-topic, but let me ask this of Toronto and Ontario residents. I doubt anyone will have knowledge of this, but I remember it well: What I'm thinking of occurred during either a federal (most likely) or provincial election about 15-20 years ago. There was a relatively well-known Toronto journalist named Dale Goldhawk (formerly of CTV), who hosted 4-candidate debates, by Ontario riding, around a desk at Rogers 10, a cable channel that was put out to pasture several years ago.
During one Toronto-riding debate, there was a young, heavyset Conservative candidate who was so flustered that he was unable to answer a single question posed to him. He would shake his head embarrassedly or say, "I'm sorry...", something along those lines, when Goldhawk asked him a question. I felt terrible for the guy. Thankfully, Goldhawk and the three other candidates were extremely, commendably tactful towards this young man: instead of deriding him or drawing attention to his inability to put a sentence together, each proceeded as if all were normal, and I think eventually Goldhawk stopped addressing him entirely, which I'm sure the guy appreciated. I think this guy had a generic English name like John O'Toole.
Anyone else recall seeing this cringeworthy trainwreck, and the names of those who were involved?

I vaguely remember hearing about that. I'll have to see if I can find it online or something about it.

I definitely remember Dale Goldhawk and his consumer rights reports. I think he also had a political show on CPAC that I'd watch once in awhile.

In my riding in the 1990s and 2000s we had a few provincial and federal elections where the conservative candidate was a parachute one and they would be terrible at the debate and just read statements prepared by the party. Sometimes they wouldn't really have to do with the question that was asked and everyone would giggle or laugh.

Goldhawk did moderate a number of riding debates in 2014 in Toronto for the provincial election so it might have been one of those?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by le calmar

You forgot harls



I guess I'm not quite in the Québécois forumers club because I moved to Ontario 10 years ago and lio didn't mention me, so that probably makes me slightly more impartial.

But yeah, I think lio is right about the fact the PQ has good chances to win the next election and a new referendum is a distinct possibility. It's useless to predict what the results of said referendum will be at this point, but let's just be realistic.

The PLQ will gain a bit of momentum when they get a new leader but it's probably not going to be enough to make a huge difference. The CAQ is pretty much a walking corpse right now and Legault is deeply unpopular. QS has become a borderline marginal party and I don't see things changing, even with a new co-leader.

We will see where things go in Quebec. The PQ isn't what it used to be and doesn't have the coolness factor it once had among young francophones. Quebec's economy has been the strongest in Canada over the last decade as well so the PQ doesn't have a good economic argument for change. I do get that the party is seen as an alternative and has potential for much more support. But being at 30% isn't impressive. You'd think the party would at least be at 40-45% if so many Quebecers want change and a shift to the left.

[casper]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Unless, of course, the Conservatives win.

While that is possible. Many things can happen between now and election day. The longer this goes on the more likely we are to have a Liberal majority.

Canadian are scared. They need a leader that can clearly define a plan and in a calm way execute. That is where the Liberals are good at. In COVID and now this.

The Conservatives are not in power. They can't demonstrate demonstrate leadership by doing. Is it fair? Probably not. But it is what it is.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by lio45

To be more precise, he had, and probably still has, a ~27 point lead over Justin Trudeau; he never had a 27 point lead over almost-recruited-by-Harper, centrist “blue Liberal” Carney.

This is plain false. When the tariffs were going to come into effect, Trudeau gave that impassioned speech asking Canadians to come together, and stand up to Trump. It was his finest moment. Then, the polls started to dramatically rise. When Trudeau finally stepped down, the Liberals were only 3 or 4 points trailing.

Trudeau's popularity ballooned from 22% to 47% in his final approval ratings. That is higher than Poilievre.

Poilievre defeated JT too well, in retrospect. JT had become toxic from the taint of the damage JT did to Canada; Carney has nearly nothing to do with it.

This is also incorrect. Trudeau's unpopularity for most of 2024 had nothing to do with Poilievre. People were sick of him. PP's attack did work to a certain degree, but this backfired when Trump started making threats. The Conservatives blew it again, running three bad candidates in a row.

The Liberal momentum was riding high, by the time Carney was chosen as the new leader. All this can be verified by viewing the polling numbers in 2025.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It's just a poll, but one take away I'm getting from that, is that the Liberals are managing to not just destroy NDP, but they've managed to pull some support from the BQ and PPC.

Most polls I've noticed, the PPC vote seems to jump to the CPC while the LPC jump is usually from the NDP. Not in this polls case.

Still, we are early in the campaign, and a lot can change, especially in the next couple of weeks between Tariff Day next Wednesday, and the Debates in a couple of weeks.

But damn, between the Felon's "You get a Tariff and YOU get a Tariff!" policy, and Smith visiting Florida more often than she visits Ottawa, the LPC is basically better armed than Ukraine right now.

[JakeLRS]

Poilievre announces he’ll add a $5000 top-up to TFSA on Canadian investments.

Huge for middle class people, like myself, who put are fortunate to put a good sum into a TFSA.