Canadian Federal Election

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

How Carney gets my vote:

Does he need your vote?

That's the thing about safe ridings. Be they Liberal ridings in the 416 or Conservative ridings in Alberta, the bar to pander to them is way too high. By contrast, a leader can make 1-2 policy promises and swing most of the 905 to deliver more seats than half the Prairies. And those are actual swing voters who will routinely jump between parties. So parties know they are persuadable.

It's a bit paradoxical. But if Alberta actually had more Liberal seats, you'd see the LPC become much more amenable to the idea of supporting O&G. But when the ROI for them is so low....

Just curious, have you actually voted Liberal before?

[LuluBobo]

Cbc vote compass is up. Looks like the Liberals and Conservatives are very close

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

At first sight, as long as the NDP remains in the toilet, the Liberals can get a majority without even needing more from Quebec than their core Montreal ridings, right?

Poilievre is capped at ~40% in Anglo-Canada so that leaves ~60% for Carney. Let’s say there’s a ~5-10% of the electorate that’s “core NDP/Green” and wouldn’t ever consider voting strategically, that’s still ~50-55% of the electorate that prefers Carney to Poilievre and could vote Red.

I think Poilievre has a much higher ceiling than 40% in English Canada. He was polling above 50% pretty consistently. Different world so perhaps the paradigm has changed but if Trump stays quiet and it's again a referendum on 10 years of Liberal rule some of those votes can come back.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Does he need your vote?

That's the thing about safe ridings. Be they Liberal ridings in the 416 or Conservative ridings in Alberta, the bar to pander to them is way too high. By contrast, a leader can make 1-2 policy promises and swing most of the 905 to deliver more seats than half the Prairies. And those are actual swing voters who will routinely jump between parties. So parties know they are persuadable.

It's a bit paradoxical. But if Alberta actually had more Liberal seats, you'd see the LPC become much more amenable to the idea of supporting O&G. But when the ROI for them is so low....

Just curious, have you actually voted Liberal before?

According to polls, No, Carney won’t need my vote. Neither do the Cons.

I have only taken to politics when I entered the workforce in 2013. With Justin Trudeau as the leader of the Libs there was absolutely no way I would have voted for his party as him leader.

Carney, on the other hand, I see why his support is surging. He’s way more centrist, he more aligns with Cons than he does with Libs, exemplified by him adopting the Con platform. When I see Carney as the leader, it makes me wonder how in the love of god was Trudeau the Pm for so long.

But… Carney has blatantly lied over the course of the last 2 weeks numerous times, so I don’t think he is very trustworthy at this point.

[dleung]

Lol @ the social conservatives now minimizing the coming Lib majority as "just a few percentage point shift", after salivating over Trump's throbbing "mandate" relative to JT's (while simultaneously whining about the two-party system in the US that causes 51-vs-49% outcomes unseen in any other advanced economy)

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Does he need your vote?

That's the thing about safe ridings. Be they Liberal ridings in the 416 or Conservative ridings in Alberta, the bar to pander to them is way too high. By contrast, a leader can make 1-2 policy promises and swing most of the 905 to deliver more seats than half the Prairies. And those are actual swing voters who will routinely jump between parties. So parties know they are persuadable.

It's a bit paradoxical. But if Alberta actually had more Liberal seats, you'd see the LPC become much more amenable to the idea of supporting O&G. But when the ROI for them is so low....

Just curious, have you actually voted Liberal before?

Yes and even if Carney did all those things most of which are pretty sensible in the current climate anyone voting on mostly O&G is still going to vote Conservative. They will always be better. Like single issue voters on taxes, Israel, crime etc. Suburbanites care a bit about the latter issues though they don't care about oil bros. They do like the cheap daycare that oil revenues partially pay for but that's a large disconnect for most.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think Poilievre has a much higher ceiling than 40% in English Canada. He was polling above 50% pretty consistently. Different world so perhaps the paradigm has changed but if Trump stays quiet and it's again a referendum on 10 years of Liberal rule some of those votes can come back.

The issue for the Tories is not so much the numbers but rather how they are distributed. He is still riding high on the Prairies but that doesn't come close to his troubles in Ontario, Vancouver, Winnipeg, AC, and Quebec. Liberal votes tend to be far more productive. Remember, O'Toole got more votes than Trudeau did but still ended up losing the election. Also Carney is making some solid gains in Edmonton and Calgary. In Alberta there is a HUGE social difference between Edm/Cal and every place outside of them.

As for the NDP, they are about to get a disaster of an outcome. At this point they are only ahead in 1 riding in BC, could lose the 3 seats they have in Ontario and be wiped out in AC. The NDP really are looking at a 5 seat scenario while just a few months ago they had a shot at official opposition and, according to some polls, were ahead of the Liberals. They had the opportunity to bring down the gov't several times but choose not to and now are paying dearly for their lack of vision. But hey, isn't the demise of a Party worth it when your leader gets his pension in exchange?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The issue for the Tories is not so much the numbers but rather how they are distributed. He is still riding high on the Prairies but that doesn't come close to his troubles in Ontario, Vancouver, Winnipeg, AC, and Quebec. Liberal votes tend to be far more productive. Remember, O'Toole got more votes than Trudeau did but still ended up losing the election. Also Carney is making some solid gains in Edmonton and Calgary. In Alberta there is a HUGE social difference between Edm/Cal and every place outside of them.

At the provincial level, Edmonton is an NDP strong hold. Aside from oil, it's very similar to Winnipeg in a lot of ways. They tend to vote Conservative in elections, but there are many ridings there that can potentially flip. With the exception of one or two ridings in Calgary, it's pretty locked up for the Cons. In my lifetime, I cannot recall the Liberals or NDP willing any riding outside the two large cities.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yeah, but I don’t see the odds of Carney having that type of attitude being much lower than the odds of Poilievre having it. Carney is a pretty blue Liberal and doesn’t seem too ideological. If he realizes the best way to help national unity is to leave Quebec alone, he might find it acceptable, I doubt he’d have a mental blocking about this the way a JT would.

True, though given Carney's history he is in favour of large bureaucratic programs, and I could see that play out with Carney further growing and centralising federal power. His team is also still supported by Gerald Butts and Katie Telford, who carry all of the ideological baggage of the Trudeau era, and I don't see their influence eroding until Carney makes a clean cut from Trudeau's stooges.

I think Poilievre is much more sympathetic to the idea of restricting the federal government to its core competencies (i.e. defense, military, borders, foreign affairs, inter provincial trade) and in turn not intrude in Quebec's jurisdiction.

[Gresto]

Egads, I didn't know it was physically possible to fit so much asshole and douche into such a small area without the space-time continuum bursting apart in disgusted rebellion.

And those pics with O'Leary, Smith, and Dump just radiate smarmy plutocratic slime schmoozing with a sycophant who cheerfully does its bidding.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Weird I thought he was a Blocquiste. Given the perpetual obsession with Frano-Quebec language and culture war issues.

Yes they like the Bloc. BUT they take more Conservative positions on most issues discussed in here. And during elections, the tone they both have is not a friend of the LPC, and more of a pro CPC. But yes, Bloc preferred you are right.

[missing_middle]

BOOMERS PUT DOWN THE REMOTE. TURN OFF CABLE NEWS.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

BOOMERS PUT DOWN THE REMOTE. TURN OFF CABLE NEWS.

Even if Abacus data are reliable, PP will still need to work hard to rally the millennial vote.
That said, I am not exactly surprised that younger generations don't care too much about Trump's threat.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Dion was pretty weak. Anglos didn't care but unlike French Canada they didn't give any allowance for his language skills when evaluating the ideas in speeches and debates.

He had a pretty strong accent, but he did manage to speak and understand English. And despite all that, how well did he do in the election?

[samne]

Didn’t realize there were so many Boomers on SSP

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Doubtful. MPs with accents get elected all the time. Some get cabinet posts. Especially provincially. I think there's even more tolerance among anglophones for Francophone leaders who may have worse English and heavy accents. As long as they can be understood, most people are just fine.

I think folks like yourself are projecting your own linguistic concerns and imagining that Anglophones think the same way. But language isn't some culture war touchpoint for Anglophones, the way it is for Francophones.

And there's an obvious cultural double standard. I guarantee you that most Anglophones would be far more tolerant of a Quebecer with an accent and worse grammar than they would say a newly naturalized Indo-Canadian. Who do you think would fare better with the average anglophone voter Chretien/Dion group or a guy that sounds like Apu from the Simpsons? I would put my money on the former. Even in the 905!

Having a thick accent and not speaking a language (let alone not understand it) are different things. There are not many complains about English accents in Québec, but only with the lack of knowledge about French. The president of Air Canada wasn't called on is accent in French, but on his absence of knowledge of French. And people are not complaining on Mark Carney's accent in French but rather are asking if he can even understand it at all, let alone speak it.

The ROC might not complain about accent either, but I guarantee that if someone was running without a full knowledge on English (especially if that person knew French), that person would never get elected Prime Minister.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The issue for the Tories is not so much the numbers but rather how they are distributed. He is still riding high on the Prairies but that doesn't come close to his troubles in Ontario, Vancouver, Winnipeg, AC, and Quebec. Liberal votes tend to be far more productive. Remember, O'Toole got more votes than Trudeau did but still ended up losing the election. Also Carney is making some solid gains in Edmonton and Calgary. In Alberta there is a HUGE social difference between Edm/Cal and every place outside of them.

As for the NDP, they are about to get a disaster of an outcome. At this point they are only ahead in 1 riding in BC, could lose the 3 seats they have in Ontario and be wiped out in AC. The NDP really are looking at a 5 seat scenario while just a few months ago they had a shot at official opposition and, according to some polls, were ahead of the Liberals. They had the opportunity to bring down the gov't several times but choose not to and now are paying dearly for their lack of vision. But hey, isn't the demise of a Party worth it when your leader gets his pension in exchange?

Yes 39%-39% and the Libs are certain to win decisively perhaps even a majority. My point is even if the NDP vote stays with the Libs and possibly even if the Bloc vote stays with the Libs the Conservatives can still win if they get back the English centrist voters they had 2 months ago. It is certainly possible even if not probable.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

Having a thick accent and not speaking a language (let alone not understand it) are different things. There are not many complains about English accents in Québec, but only with the lack of knowledge about French. The president of Air Canada wasn't called on is accent in French, but on his absence of knowledge of French. And people are not complaining on Mark Carney's accent in French but rather are asking if he can even understand it at all, let alone speak it.

The ROC might not complain about accent either, but I guarantee that if someone was running without a full knowledge on English (especially if that person knew French), that person would never get elected Prime Minister.

We've seen enough already to know that he both understands and speaks French. The fact that someone who spoke French but not English could not get elected PM is likely true, but not relevant.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

Cbc vote compass is up. Looks like the Liberals and Conservatives are very close

The one thing it needs to adjust its the CPC's stance on $10/day childcare, as they have released their position on that today.

Should be "Neutral" or "Somewhat Agree" instead of "Somewhat Disagree".


I'm also head scratching how LPC is "somewhat agree" on The federal budget deficit should be reduced, even if it leads to fewer public services...

Nonetheless, a great tool to show where you stand

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes 39%-39% and the Libs are certain to win decisively perhaps even a majority. My point is even if the NDP vote stays with the Libs and possibly even if the Bloc vote stays with the Libs the Conservatives can still win if they get back the English centrist voters they had 2 months ago. It is certainly possible even if not probable.

That is precisely the group that has gravitated in droves (back) to the now more centrist Liberals.