Canadian Federal Election

[MonctonRad]

Debates are political theatre. Nothing more, nothing less.

What should matter more is who is better at doing thoughtful analysis of the problems at hand, and are capable of making a morally and/or strategically appropriate decision based on this data.

Debates do not offer any insight into this ability.

[Dengler Avenue]

^ I don’t think that @Marty_Mcfly was necessarily being partisan. Typing a comment under time constraint, maybe?

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The only thing missing is orange face paint.
:

I mean...have you seen him recently at some of his rallies? Its getting weird out there



As far as debates go I agree with you, barring some crazy revelation debates are just a way to fire up the base but thats about it. Almost every modern debate is just using debate bro tactics to get a punch in on your opponent in a setting thats almost impossible to didscuss anything with context or nuance. Its all about gotcha moments.

Cons will get some enjoyment out of PP "owning" Carney after he calls him a marxist communist WEF puppet and then everyone will forget about it 2 days later. The rest of the public will likely take PP's approach as insufferable as he appears insufferable almost every time he speaks which is why is favorability ratings are horrible.

Its meant to get a few clips but you can't have a serious policy discussion about tariffs with "1 minute response time". Whoever shouts louder or has more clever insults will claim to win the debate. I dont expect this to be Carneys strong suit, he has zero debate experience outside the liberal debates which were super tame. His best tactic in a debate is try and remain calm and not take any bait as that is how the public perceives him.

[savevp]

Whether debates are valuable or not, the fact is that Carney is so lacking confidence in his French that his team felt the damage from skipping the debate was less than the damage he'd inflict on the party by debating.

If we're at a point where the current PM is so incompetent in an official language as to be unable to properly fight an election campaign in it, that's a far more concerning hit to national unity than Danielle Smith ranting about plastic straws. Personally, this isn't enough to sway me back over to the Tories yet, but it's a gift for the Bloc. Carney's got one hell of a mea culpa coming to French Canadians.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by savevp

Whether debates are valuable or not, the fact is that Carney is so lacking confidence in his French that his team felt the damage from skipping the debate was less than the damage he'd inflict on the party by debating.

If we're at a point where the current PM is so incompetent in an official language as to be unable to properly fight an election campaign in it, that's a far more concerning hit to national unity than Danielle Smith ranting about plastic straws. Personally, this isn't enough to sway me back over to the Tories yet, but it's a gift for the Bloc. Carney's got one hell of a mea culpa coming to French Canadians.

A lot of people seem discreetly pleased that Mark Carney's subpar French doesn't seem to be hurting his fortunes in Quebec, so far at least. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, both until and after the election.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A lot of people seem discreetly pleased that Mark Carney's subpar French doesn't seem to be hurting his fortunes in Quebec, so far at least. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, both until and after the election.

Does he at least get any Brownie points for attempting to speak la belle langue????

[lirette]

Originally Posted by savevp

Whether debates are valuable or not, the fact is that Carney is so lacking confidence in his French that his team felt the damage from skipping the debate was less than the damage he'd inflict on the party by debating.

If we're at a point where the current PM is so incompetent in an official language as to be unable to properly fight an election campaign in it, that's a far more concerning hit to national unity than Danielle Smith ranting about plastic straws. Personally, this isn't enough to sway me back over to the Tories yet, but it's a gift for the Bloc. Carney's got one hell of a mea culpa coming to French Canadians.

Well, he is going to debate in french on the official french debate, and now the bar is set so low that he only needs to do "fine" for everyone to forget about it. Now that the TVA debate won't happen I don't expect this to affect much. It would have been a worse look for it to happen and PP and others debate without him there.

CPC got a news cycle win for for half a day on him turning down the second debate but most of that is negated now by the foreign interference story.

I'm much more interested in the political ramifications of this then whether it makes him competent. I actually don't care personally if the PM is a perfect French speaker. Plenty of people in the government are fluent and Carney doesn't need to speak french to Trumps people. I also don't think we should insult the quebec people by implying the only thing that matters to them is how perfect his french is. His policies, rhetoric, tone etc are all just as important.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A lot of people seem discreetly pleased that Mark Carney's subpar French doesn't seem to be hurting his fortunes in Quebec, so far at least. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, both until and after the election.

Speaking with colleagues from la belle province - language does not matter given the threat of the US and losing language and culture to Americans. Their strong dislike of Pierre and wanting to ensure they have voices in government (which the BQ can't be) has them turning to Carney... and at least he's trying.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

I posted this on Twitter

"At times like this I am actually amazed and so proud to be from a country thats this liberal.

In the end progressive Canadians are unifying behind one candidate at just the right time to save our country and I couldn't be more proud of all of you for doing your part."


https://x.com/TheChaosWeeber/status/1904407666748735788

Some two-thirds of Canadians don’t intend to vote for Carney; I wouldn’t call that “unifying behind one candidate”.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lirette

I also don't think we should insult the quebec people by implying the only thing that matters to them is how perfect his french is. His policies, rhetoric, tone etc are all just as important.

I think as far as Acajack is concerned, the lack of fluency in French is a deal breaker, and that Carney therefore should never have offered as Liberal leader. Only people with flawless French and no discernable accent need apply for the position.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by lio45

Some two-thirds of Canadians don’t intend to vote for Carney; I wouldn’t call that “unifying behind one candidate”.

And even less will vote for Pierre or right of centre parties...

[Marshsparrow]

I posted in the other thread about the G&M CSIS article.

Why won't Pierre get his security clearance? Why is he controlled by India, Russia and the US?

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Former Immigration and Housing Minister Sean Fraser has performed a U-turn and will now run for re-election

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

Former Immigration and Housing Minister Sean Fraser has performed a U-turn and will now run for re-election

A lot of the rats are now returning to the ship. It appears it may not sink after all.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by lio45

Some two-thirds of Canadians don’t intend to vote for Carney; I wouldn’t call that “unifying behind one candidate”.

At the moment, 338 has the LPC at 39%, effectively 40% or 2/5ths of the country. Which implies 3/5ths are not voting for him.

While not a huge difference from 2/3 (66%) it is still a 6% difference which is outside the typical margin of errors.

Checking historical records, ONE election in the 2000's (The election in 2000) has had the leader get over 40% of the vote. And even then Chretien only got just under 41% of the vote. (He got almost 42% of the vote in 1993).

In 2015, Justin almost got 40%, with 39.47% of the vote, and Harper came close in 2011 with 39.62%.
(Numbers skimmed off Wiki)

It's the nature of our politics in general, getting even close to 40% shows a strong candidate in general; getting over 40% indicates someone who does have a lot of support in general.


That said, while I would NOT make it an election party platform plank (Carney's got more than enough on his plate as is, and Justin burned this particular plank thoroughly long ago), I would love to see him try to consider some form of Electoral reform again. He should know he'll be a One and Done PM regardless, but he's also got a good chance to eek out a majority. Feels like a good opportunity to give it a try again. Though maybe hold off until '26 at least so we see how everything else is falling apart first.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

morning update

Federal voting intentions from Léger:

LPC 44%
CPC 38%
NDP 6%
BQ 5% (23% in QC)
GPC 3%
PPC 3%

[Léger, March 21-23, 2025, n=1,599]

[samne]

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Polievre 50%
Carney 50%

It’s currently a tie. Let’s see who can get momentum.

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1742910134091

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

I posted in the other thread about the G&M CSIS article.

Why won't Pierre get his security clearance? Why is he controlled by India, Russia and the US?

This one?

CSIS alleges India organized support for Poilievre’s 2022 Conservative leadership bid

source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics...erference-pierre-poilievre-conservative/

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker:

LPC - 39.6%, 183 seats (majority government).
CPC - 37,3%, 130 seats
BLQ - 6.4%, 24 seats
NDP - 10.1%, 4 seats (loses official party status)
GRN - 3.3%, 2 seats
PPC - 2,2%, 2 seats

In Quebec, LPC has 38.3% support, BLQ 27.4% and CPC 21.7%

An NDP collapse to 4 seats will ensure a Carney majority government.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Latest Nanos is interesting if someone wants to pull it up.

Nanos data is old. March 21st was only 250 voters, then 250 from March 14th, 250 from March 7th and 250 March 1st. They will catch up.