Canadian Federal Election

[missing_middle]

Originally Posted by casper

Plan A should be to get Trump to reverse course. No question. That is the ideal setup.

What I am saying is we should also be working on Plan B in parallel, if we can't achieve Plan A.

Plan B (if can't get there), is have tariffs to block US cars from coming into Canada and we have an industrial policy where we sit down with Ford Canada and talk about how can they most effectively take advanced of their paid for factories in Canada, supply chain and skilled workforce. For the European market they manufacture in Germany, Spain, and Turkey. We are not competing with the third world. Maybe we need to provide some investments to retool.

We do the same with GM, Boeing and any other major manufacture etc.

Boeing is an interesting opportunity. They assemble all their aircraft in the US. They are going to have retaliatory tariffs around the world. Airbus is better positioned with assembly lines in the US and depending on the model also in Canada or Europe.




Carney over the past few years has been involved in putting together railway projects, pipeline project, energy projects, data infrastructure projects on a global scale. Many of them private-public partnerships. He is credible on wall street and at Davos where many of these types of deals come together and get funded.

Here is the portfolio: https://www.brookfield.com/our-businesses/infrastructure

The conservatives like to talk about creating an "open for business" attitude; most of them have no experience doing any of this. Carney brings a level of experience doing these types of deal in the real world that we have never had in the PM office. I don't expert the PM to be negotiating pipline deals, but having the PM understand what it takes to attract investment for these types of projects, in an environmentally responsible way, in important to create the right environment.

Again all of this thinking is based on Carney's persuasiveness > business environment, when the opposite is true.

US tariffs
Domestic taxes
Domestic regulations

All of these are going to outweigh Carney's words when it comes to business decisions.

A lot Carney voters are basically staking everything on the person and not policies. I have yet to hear why Carney has an advantage over the Conservatives when it comes to policies businesses look for beyond "he just has better business vibes".

If Pollievere is a total unlikeable asshole but has more favourable tax and regulation policies...then that's what businesses ultimately care about.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Lol . Carney supporters remind me a lot of MAGA.

I apologize, you're a genius and the major Canadian banks; BMO, CIBC, Scotiabank, and National Bank who very recently withdrew from Carneys NZBA climate initiative are all just bunch of chumps just like me. They clearly have no idea whats best for shareholders and should immediately appoint you as the CEO instead since you're clearly more knowledgeable


Trumps wet dream is for Canada to elect this (possible) Qatari asset

Sorry but I disagree with your entire train of thought here. PP would be a disaster for Canada and there's a reason why Elon/Vance/Trump prefer him.

[LikesBikes]

The projection with some of PP's people is so funny. Yesterday I was listening to a political podcast and the conservative pointed how Carney's quip about PP bending the knee to Trump is actually homophobic. Is the conservative strategy to now go woke and claim the Liberals are secretly MAGA? If so, brilliant work boys

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Sorry but I disagree with your entire train of thought here. PP would be a disaster for Canada and there's a reason why Elon/Vance/Trump prefer him.

Why would PP be a disaster?

What is that reason why Elon/Vance/Trump prefer PP?

PP has come out rallying against Trump the exact same as Carney.

One would think team Trump would prefer Carney, since Carney plans to further inflate prices on industry on top of the US tariffs, making it even more lucrative to close up in Canada and move to the US. Carney is doing Trump a favour when he says he wants to in trade the carbon tax on industry.

Note too that Carney has adopted much of the same platform that PP has been rallying the last few years.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Absolutely surreal given where polling was 2 months ago.

Really curious to see how Carney does going into the election, and looking forward to his platform.

I was sick of Trudeau and was looking for someone with more liberal economic policy - but PP is a total greaseball and that concerns me. If Carney can strike the right balance he'll probably get my vote. We'll see.

Yeah consider in early January the Conservatives had a 25-29 point lead depending on the pollster. That has now been erased. When they say a month is an eternity in politics they are right!

I prefer Carney over Poilievre. I think he's what the country needs right now. We need calm, cool, experienced. We don't need another big cult personality with slogans who spews anger. Trump is giving the world enough of that. The campaign will be very interesting.

Globe and Mail is reporting election will be April 28th or May 5th.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Again all of this thinking is based on Carney's persuasiveness > business environment, when the opposite is true.

US tariffs
Domestic taxes
Domestic regulations

All of these are going to outweigh Carney's words when it comes to business decisions.

A lot Carney voters are basically staking everything on the person and not policies. I have yet to hear why Carney has an advantage over the Conservatives when it comes to policies businesses look for beyond "he just has better business vibes".

If Pollievere is a total unlikeable asshole but has more favourable tax and regulation policies...then that's what businesses ultimately care about.

Yes Carney will make the "smart strategic" decisions subsidizing key industries that Poilievre will reject based on ideology but what we really need as you say is regulatory and tax reform that is more pro business. Carney is also going to continue to stifle our oil and gas development for ideology. But what people are going to decide the election on isn't any of that. It's who will fight tariffs and what amounts to an economic war. Poilievre has Alberta as a base so has to back the nonsense take of Danielle Smith that we can never touch our oil exports. He might be the one in power to actually be able to actually use the resource combined with some kind of emergency push through of a pipeline whereas Carney would know it would be fatal to national unity for a Liberal premier to do anything confiscatory for the oil industry and could never push through a pipeline because of the net zero delusion. We have hard choice ahead both with big limitations.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

With that in mind, Poilievre's no doubt going to be thrilled that Smith described him as such on Breitbart:

Oh my god I listened to that interview and the interviewer was just dumb, no intelligence at all behind that microphone, he just parrots stupid Trump things like "do you think this is a ploy by Trudeau to stay in power?"

The Liberals really need to put her quote on blast. Let's bring it up again: "The perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with the new direction in America".

[elly63]

• Video Link

[kiwi4353]

So when can we expect a federal election to be called?

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by kiwi4353

So when can we expect a federal election to be called?

By the end of next week.

The Globe and Mail sources say an election date of either April 28 or May 5 are being considered by the Carney team.

However, if polls all of the sudden collapse, something might change but we’ll see. Almost a guaranteed election call next week though.

[Acajack]

I've also read that Mark Carney is planning on announcing a new Cabinet of his own.

[YOWetal]

Ford now telling American TV how Carney understands finance like no other person.

Poilievre must regret not playing ball with him last year when he was riding higher than Ford.


https://x.com/ClintonDesveaux/status/1899480267607150793

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Ford now telling American TV how Carney understands finance like no other person.

Poilievre must regret not playing ball with him last year when he was riding higher than Ford.


https://x.com/ClintonDesveaux/status/1899480267607150793

Ford wants Pierre to fail, he wants his job.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Ford wants Pierre to fail, he wants his job.

That's Poilievre's line to explain it away but Ford doesn't speak a word of French and must know he has no real chance without that? Though another Liberal win would set him up to possibly win a 2027 leadership campaign and a 2029 election would be 14 years of Liberal power so the Conservatives would be due by then. So maybe... He might want to tone it down a bit though as memories are long.

[Airboy]

I don't think it is the new leader bounce. PP isn't liked in my Conservative friends, he was tolerated. But the hatred for Trudeau was higher. People on the fence needed someone that was relatively easy alternative to accept.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's Poilievre's line to explain it away but Ford doesn't speak a word of French and must know he has no real chance without that? Though another Liberal win would set him up to possibly win a 2027 leadership campaign and a 2029 election would be 14 years of Liberal power so the Conservatives would be due by then. So maybe... He might want to tone it down a bit though as memories are long.

We are inexorably heading towards a Canada where the major parties put forward candidates for PM that don't speak French, but it's still some distance away in the future. So that would likely rule out Doug Ford as you say.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

We are inexorably heading towards a Canada where the major parties put forward candidates for PM that don't speak French, but it's still some distance away in the future. So that would likely rule out Doug Ford as you say.

Well a Ford loss on e.g. April 28th could see him sign up for daily French lessons on April 29th. 2-3 hours a day of private lessons and even a 60 year old man can get a decent spoken French on political issues after a year. Government execs do it all the time. Win the leadership and he could ramp it up further with a parliament time and visits to Quebec thrown in. The more you think about it and as crazy as it's seem on it's face or certainly seemed in 2018 the day before Brown resigned, it now seems possible.

[Innsertnamehere]

Ford doesn't even have a high school diploma. I don't see him as an academic willing to do a deep dive to rapid-learn french.

[WarrenC12]

Ford needs to have a foil in Ottawa. Likely the LPC does well with a PC in Toronto too. Both closer to centre than Trudeau and PP.

[casper]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Again all of this thinking is based on Carney's persuasiveness > business environment, when the opposite is true.

US tariffs
Domestic taxes
Domestic regulations

All of these are going to outweigh Carney's words when it comes to business decisions.

A lot Carney voters are basically staking everything on the person and not policies. I have yet to hear why Carney has an advantage over the Conservatives when it comes to policies businesses look for beyond "he just has better business vibes".

If Pollievere is a total unlikeable asshole but has more favourable tax and regulation policies...then that's what businesses ultimately care about.

Fundamental Liberal policies. The Liberals are willing to pick winners and losers in the economy. They have no issue cutting deals with the auto sector to ensure we have a manufacturing back in Canada. The same for aviation. The same for defence. Liberals are willing to have government build piplines.

The Conservative policies is more free market, lower taxes and they will come. That is not going to work.