Canadian Federal Election

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

This is just fantasy. Tariffs from the world's largest economy has a much more sway on business decisions than whatever Carney can say.

There are ways to strategize around it and play to our strengths but that doesn't include hopium around Carney just walking into a room on Wall Street and smooth talking business leaders into ignoring the tariff reality.

It also just ignores the fact that Trump actually has less pushback now than he did in his first term. If anything large US businesses are placating Trump more than ever before. I wouldn't be surprised if large US businesses have put a pause on Canadian investments precisely not to get on his bad side.

I was just about to say that. Carney’s buddies will no doubt nod their head in agreement when he tells them how bad Trump’s tariffs as policy are but when it comes time to make out their money down they’ll go with maintaining access to the worlds largest consumer market every time.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

Trump cares about the markets. Carney has credibility with the markets.

They are tumbling because of the tariffs. The market assumed this was some negotiation ploy, now they understand its real.

Someone needs to tell the markets, look it is going to all be ok, the US is not going to put tariffs on Canada (Mexico or EU) and no one is going to retaliate.

Carney current message is going to be, "You have not see anything yet. We are going to hurt the US."

...WHAT?

This is complete fan fiction. It's hard to believe you're a grown adult.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

First it's "mark carney hangs out with sex traffickers" and now "mark carney is a (possible) qatari asset". What's next, he runs a pedophile ring from his pizza shop?

You're full of it. I never said anything about that nonsense.

To me , climate extremists and QAnon conspiracists are one of the same.

I priortize Canadian private sector workers thriving and improving GDP per capita.

And yes, its perfectly reasonable to speculate that Carney could be a Qatari asset, just as much as past speculation about Trump being a Russian asset.

Carneys far left climate policy to demolish our domstic energy sector would benefit Qatars oil exports tremendously.

Al Jazeera also ran a hit piece on P.P

I dont support a man that wants to demolish our o&g sector, push forced electrification of everything (including the joke thats known as "clean steel") and lastly but not least, whos endorsed by an outlet thats expressed support for far left pro-hamas "resistance" activists intimidating and harrassing the jewish community in my local riding.

[MolsonExport]

To me , climate extremists and QAnon conspiracists are one of the same.

Ok then, I just had to stop reading. Probably for the better.

[casper]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

This is just fantasy. Tariffs from the world's largest economy has a much more sway on business decisions than whatever Carney can say.

There are ways to strategize around it and play to our strengths but that doesn't include hopium around Carney just walking into a room on Wall Street and smooth talking business leaders into ignoring the tariff reality.

It also just ignores the fact that Trump actually has less pushback now than he did in his first term. If anything large US businesses are placating Trump more than ever before. I wouldn't be surprised if large US businesses have put a pause on Canadian investments precisely not to get on his bad side.

We need Carney to be the rational one in the discussions that the Banks and Corporations listen to and trust. If he can clarify trump is not "negotiating" with Canada but intends to damage both countries that will help move the markets.

If he can't stop it, then he needs to advocate for a new role for Canada in the market.

Lets assume there is no way out its 25% on Canada Exports, + 25% on steel/aluminum +1005 on autos. Lets use Ford as an example?

The US factories get converted to only serving the US market.

Ford Canada, Ford Mexico and Ford Europe sit down and figure out how to structure manufacturing across their factories in Canada, Mexico, the EU and Latin America. What on the showroom in Canada will change, we will have the Spanish Ford Kuga and German Ford Focus. Perhaps the Canadian made cars will end up in Europe. There is a market outside the US that still needs to be served and the US is going to price itself out of that market.

Companies like these need to be confident that Canada is stable and is not the one starting trade wars.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Whether you like Pierre Poilievre or not, being a career politician is a real job, and moving up the ranks to become leader of a major political party is a real accomplishment.

"He doesn't have private sector experience", or whatever, was always a right wing line, and not a very good one IMO.

Hence why I’m applying that argument to a conservative. When I see career politicians like PP or Kenney with zero private sector experience endlessly trashing government employees and extolling the virtue of the private sector while never having worked a day outside politics in their lives, it makes me laugh. It’s so hypocritical. Mostly their job seems to revolve around getting kickbacks from oil and gas corporations.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

Companies like these need to be confident that Canada is stable and is not the one starting trade wars.

Who doesn't already know this?

We need Carney to be the rational one in the discussions that the Banks and Corporations listen to and trust. If he can clarify trump is not "negotiating" with Canada but intends to damage both countries that will help move the markets.

What does this even mean? The markets are already moving in the wrong direction. If Carney actually has the reputation you think he does, how can telling the world that a madman is running it's largest economy going to instill confidence? What you're saying makes no sense.

Lets assume there is no way out its 25% on Canada Exports, + 25% on steel/aluminum +1005 on autos. Lets use Ford as an example?

The US factories get converted to only serving the US market.

Ford Canada, Ford Mexico and Ford Europe sit down and figure out how to structure manufacturing across their factories in Canada, Mexico, the EU and Latin America. What on the showroom in Canada will change, we will have the Spanish Ford Kuga and German Ford Focus. Perhaps the Canadian made cars will end up in Europe. There is a market outside the US that still needs to be served and the US is going to price itself out of that market.

How does Carney play into any of this?

This is all political fan fiction. It's ridiculous.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by theman23

Who doesn't already know this?


What does this even mean? The markets are already moving in the wrong direction. If Carney actually has the reputation you think he does, how can telling the world that a madman is running it's largest economy going to instill confidence? What you're saying makes no sense.


How does Carney play into any of this?

This is all political fan fiction. It's ridiculous.

Whether it's Carney or PP, the next PM will need to develop investment, taxation, and industrial policies that work for Canada in the new environment.

[Wigs]

It's also ridiculous to assume that Poilievre would be a leader considering he hasn't shown any leadership qualities in his over two decades in the House of Commons. He became party leader after a succession of forgettable losers.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Whether it's Carney or PP, the next PM will need to develop investment, taxation, and industrial policies that work for Canada in the new environment.

That's my point - this is all just stating the obvious and has nothing to do with Carney.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

We need Carney to be the rational one in the discussions that the Banks and Corporations listen to and trust. If he can clarify trump is not "negotiating" with Canada but intends to damage both countries that will help move the markets.

If he can't stop it, then he needs to advocate for a new role for Canada in the market.

Lets assume there is no way out its 25% on Canada Exports, + 25% on steel/aluminum +1005 on autos. Lets use Ford as an example?

The US factories get converted to only serving the US market.

Ford Canada, Ford Mexico and Ford Europe sit down and figure out how to structure manufacturing across their factories in Canada, Mexico, the EU and Latin America. What on the showroom in Canada will change, we will have the Spanish Ford Kuga and German Ford Focus. Perhaps the Canadian made cars will end up in Europe. There is a market outside the US that still needs to be served and the US is going to price itself out of that market.

Companies like these need to be confident that Canada is stable and is not the one starting trade wars.

Almost all paths forward with no access to the US market are far more dire than you are making it out. We will not be exporting Fords to Europe and likely won't be making them here at all. We allow duty free access to our market from the EU, Korea and Japan under various agreements. We could end up with nothing but over-subsidized battery plants.

Given all this going to war is absolutely the right response. Trump has shown he backs down. We haven't even used our best cards yet. The stock market and consumer inflation matter to him.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The stock market and consumer inflation matter to him.

They may matter, based on his variable mood, but lately he’s not expressing much concern.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hard to say who's education system is working better in that regard.

Ours seems to be failing in one regard. Forgive me, I couldn't resist.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

...Love seeing D Smith going to be with B Shapiro at some Florida conference - most likely pro 51st state.
Pierre thinking Carney is "sneaky"..

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

...The real election battle will be fought against Adolf Drumpf. This places PP at a distinct disadvantage, since most people view him as a pro-trucker MAGA-light acolyte of Adolf Drumpf...

With that in mind, Poilievre's no doubt going to be thrilled that Smith described him as such on Breitbart:

...the perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think, the new direction in America...

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Almost all paths forward with no access to the US market are far more dire than you are making it out. We will not be exporting Fords to Europe and likely won't be making them here at all. We allow duty free access to our market from the EU, Korea and Japan under various agreements. We could end up with nothing but over-subsidized battery plants.

Given all this going to war is absolutely the right response. Trump has shown he backs down. We haven't even used our best cards yet. The stock market and consumer inflation matter to him.

Plan A should be to get Trump to reverse course. No question. That is the ideal setup.

What I am saying is we should also be working on Plan B in parallel, if we can't achieve Plan A.

Plan B (if can't get there), is have tariffs to block US cars from coming into Canada and we have an industrial policy where we sit down with Ford Canada and talk about how can they most effectively take advanced of their paid for factories in Canada, supply chain and skilled workforce. For the European market they manufacture in Germany, Spain, and Turkey. We are not competing with the third world. Maybe we need to provide some investments to retool.

We do the same with GM, Boeing and any other major manufacture etc.

Boeing is an interesting opportunity. They assemble all their aircraft in the US. They are going to have retaliatory tariffs around the world. Airbus is better positioned with assembly lines in the US and depending on the model also in Canada or Europe.

Originally Posted by theman23

How does Carney play into any of this?

This is all political fan fiction. It's ridiculous.

Carney over the past few years has been involved in putting together railway projects, pipeline project, energy projects, data infrastructure projects on a global scale. Many of them private-public partnerships. He is credible on wall street and at Davos where many of these types of deals come together and get funded.

Here is the portfolio: https://www.brookfield.com/our-businesses/infrastructure

The conservatives like to talk about creating an "open for business" attitude; most of them have no experience doing any of this. Carney brings a level of experience doing these types of deal in the real world that we have never had in the PM office. I don't expert the PM to be negotiating pipline deals, but having the PM understand what it takes to attract investment for these types of projects, in an environmentally responsible way, in important to create the right environment.

[BlackDog204]

[Djeffery]

So what that poll says to me is the CPC is picking up from the PPC, and the Liberals are taking from the NDP. That works since there are more NDP to steal votes from than PPC, and PPC support in the last 2 elections never really amounted to enough to have cost the CPC any seats. Conservatives only win when the NDP is strong, a weak NDP elects Liberals.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Given the inefficiency of Conservative votes (blow out victories in AB & SK), this looks like another Liberal victory, probably a minority.

The Conservatives won the popular vote in the last two elections too, but still lost the elections.

[Innsertnamehere]

Absolutely surreal given where polling was 2 months ago.

Really curious to see how Carney does going into the election, and looking forward to his platform.

I was sick of Trudeau and was looking for someone with more liberal economic policy - but PP is a total greaseball and that concerns me. If Carney can strike the right balance he'll probably get my vote. We'll see.

[Taeolas]

Hopefully things hold through the election campaign and it isn't just a "New Leader bounce" we're seeing.

Regardless, I'm pretty confident in saying we're looking at a minority government in the Spring. Whether it is LPC or CPC is still very much up in the air. I'm hopeful for LPC at this point, but I'm happy it's not CPC Majority.