Canadian Federal Election

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Honda doesn’t make anything for the US market, it is Canadian (5th an 8th best selling vehicles in Canada) and European sales. Toyota makes the second best selling vehicle in Canada (and sales would increase if the Rogue and Escape were tariffed, so could probably get by on Canadian sales). I don’t know how much Lexus product is exported to the US. I suspect GM would pick most of the Ford and Ram sales and GM could run that line just with Canadian sales.

Ford will build something, they are not going to surrender the entire Canadian market.

Jeep Compass is probably a dud, but I think they make a police version, they might be able to get by on government comtracts for a little while. Hard to see the mini van as having a future, so Windsor assembly has real problems, although tariffs might force some SUV people to consider a minivan.

Parts are a problem, but these are global companies so should be able to figure out parts from other sources.

This is not what the auto experts say. They consider the industry to be totally gone. And granted they have an interest in exaggerating to avoid what will obviously be a hit.

Toyota can not survive they most of the production to the US. The Rogue and Escape buyers are going to be split between a lot of imported models and a few Canadian ones so won't make up the numbers.

As TrueNorth says talking about building up the resource sector won't resonate in Central Canada and that's where the votes are. Now if Poilievre was saying he would use the army to build a Northern Gateway pipeline AND use that to cut off the Americans he would have an argument. All Carney has to say is he will use all tools including threatening energy exports which Poilievre can't much as he is beholden to the oil industry and Carney can pain Poilievre as abandoning Ontario and Quebec for his Alberta base. There won't be time for concrete plans to diversify trade or whatever. Canadians will want to see a short term plan to stand up for Canada fighting with every tool we have. Not blaming Trudeau and thus Canada for the problem or taking oil off the table.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over. Ford's auto plant isn't even producing anything, Stellantis is living on borrowed time and the product they're making here seems to be doing a belly flop. That leaves Toyota, Honda and GM pickups. Hard to see how those would survive tariffs.

This is total nonsense. The auto industry is still a huge industry in Canada. It's worth more than Meat and Seafood combined and by a lot.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over. Ford's auto plant isn't even producing anything, Stellantis is living on borrowed time and the product they're making here seems to be doing a belly flop. That leaves Toyota, Honda and GM pickups. Hard to see how those would survive tariffs.

Ford Oakville is in the middle of upgrading the current plant and about to start construction on a new stamping line building.

[Werthers]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Classic sexist comment.

Just the fact you can't properly use this forum after 23K posts told me everything I need to know before I burst out laughing at your "sexist" comment

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I'd bet money that if this poll were taken before Trump was elected that 85% figure would be lower and our national pride is lower than it's ever been

[Wigs]

Aurora, Ontario HQ'd Magna International is the number 1 auto parts maker in North America and I believe number 3 worldwide.
Ontario is more than just assembly plants. Ontario also make the parts. A lot of jobs are reliant on these jobs.


https://www.magna.com/company/company-information/global-reach/north-america

[Werthers]

^and your point is?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

He is likely to the PM in 3 weeks. He has to come up with actual measures, not just vague platitudes.

You're not wrong. But also, who cares? Elections are about vibes these days. Not precise policy.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over.

Good luck to any federal party who argues this in an election.

[elly63]

Originally Posted by samne

Neither was Harper. Even less so arguably

• Video Link

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[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's debatable. He is very good on the attack. .

He is very unlikable, if polls are to believed. He is terrible at attacks. He comes across as a ineffective Trump. "Carbon Tax Carney" is what PP resorted to calling him, and he does it on most social media posts. It reeks of desperation, and is wildly out of touch, considering Canada is facing it's greatest existential threat in 200 years.

[Werthers]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You're not wrong. But also, who cares? Elections are about vibes these days. Not precise policy.

Sad but true, people have never been less interested in policy than they are today so these days a policy wonk like Harper wouldn't stand a chance

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

He is very unlikable, if polls are to believed. He is terrible at attacks. He comes across as a ineffective Trump. "Carbon Tax Carney" is what PP resorted to calling him, and he does it on most social media posts. It reeks of desperation, and is wildly out of touch, considering Canada is facing it's greatest existential threat in 200 years.

The thing I don't like about PP is his relentless attack style, you get the feeling that if PP were asked about his spouse he would blame any marital differences or familial strife on Trudeau

[BlackDog204]

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Werthers

Sad but true, people have never been less interested in policy than they are today so these days a policy wonk like Harper wouldn't stand a chance

The thing I don't like about PP is his relentless attack style, you get the feeling that if PP were asked about his spouse he would blame any marital differences or strife on Trudeau

Well we will see if Carney has a chance. Poilievre isn't all soundbites but we can expect the debate to be Carney putting together paragraphs on economic policy most swing voters don't understand but sounds about right vs Poilievre saying he is just like Trudeau because of X Y Z. The debates were pretty devastating for Turner and Campbell. Carney needs a clean break. Maybe an all new cabinet though that would be tough given the available talent running again. Or what if he didn't even become PM. Just announce he will run for election with the shortest writ period possible and leave Trudeau to manage Canada during the election.

[trueviking]

^ Carney will call an immediate election.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Yes at this point, it's amazing the next PM who will be crowned in a matter of days, is a complete mystery and black box policy wise. All we've heard so far is a bunch of platitudes, and contradicting messages depending if you're receiving it in English or French.

He’s not running in an election yet. All of that will come in a campaign. Bigger question is will Pierre actually come up with some policies, or just keep repeating slogans.

[theman23]

Carney is using the same "running a modest deficit so we can invest in Canadians" line that Trudeau used in 2015. Hard to credibly distance yourself from your predecessor when you use the same campaign slogans that he did.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by theman23

Carney is using the same "running a modest deficit so we can invest in Canadians" line that Trudeau used in 2015. Hard to credibly distance yourself from your predecessor when you use the same campaign slogans that he did.

Not really, since Carney has legitimate economic credibility, unlike Trudeau. I believe the line that the Carney campaign is using is, “A government that spends less, and invests more.”

Carney isn’t going to say something as daft as “the budget will balance itself”.

I think Carney is making effective arguments in favour of smart government spending… whereas PP is is likely to double down on cuts and tax breaks, instead of committing to investing in Canada’s future.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Not really, since Carney has legitimate economic credibility, unlike Trudeau. I believe the line that the Carney campaign is using is, “A government that spends less, and invests more.”

Carney isn’t going to say something as daft as “the budget will balance itself”.

I think Carney is making effective arguments in favour of smart government spending… whereas PP is is likely to double down on cuts and tax breaks, instead of committing to investing in Canada’s future.

Did Trudeau campaign on stupid government spending?

This is the language used in 2015:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-liberals-infrastructure-deficits-1.3205535

Justin Trudeau says a Liberal government won't balance the books for three straight years but will double spending on infrastructure to jump-start economic growth.
...
"Our economy needs investment in order to create growth," he said. "Our plan features three years of historic investment in the Canadian economy. That growth will eliminate the Harper deficit and we will balance the budget in 2019," he said.

Carney's promise seems identical.

Balancing a government budget is about priorities, essentially. I don't know what the term "economic credibility" really means in this situation. So far, Carney has not precisely signaled what his priorities are but he seems to be the most aligned with Trudeau and it would be reasonable to expect them to be similar given the brain trust behind his campaign.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I saw a Nanos poll that had just come out and support for JT as preferred PM is at a 1.5 year high. LPC support in the poll is not enough to win but maybe enough for the LPC to win 100 seats which is a huge improvement. And Carney at this point would make it pretty close just like shown above.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by theman23

Did Trudeau campaign on stupid government spending?

This is the language used in 2015:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-liberals-infrastructure-deficits-1.3205535


Carney's promise seems identical.

Balancing a government budget is about priorities, essentially. I don't know what the term "economic credibility" really means in this situation. So far, Carney has not precisely signaled what his priorities are but he seems to be the most aligned with Trudeau and it would be reasonable to expect them to be similar given the brain trust behind his campaign.

I don't think anyone is promising balanced budgets today. Too many unknowns with what is going on. But Carney may end up sounding the best just because he doesn't attack and be negative like PP.

[shreddog]

Liberal Party questions leadership candidate Ruby Dhalla over possible interference from India

The Liberal Party has sent a list of questions to leadership candidate Ruby Dhalla that raise concerns about possible foreign interference from India and alleged campaign irregularities, two Liberal sources say...

link

LPC will say "Vote for us, because look how honest we are, we will not put up with any foreign interference."

CPC will say "Vote for us, because the LPC are in everyone else's back pocket!"

NPD will say "Vote for us, because .... dentalcare!! (kinda sortof, if you're old and such)."

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by trueviking

He’s not running in an election yet. All of that will come in a campaign. Bigger question is will Pierre actually come up with some policies, or just keep repeating slogans.

One of the privileges of opposition is you can say whatever you want. The government has to do stuff, even during the campaign. When Trump adds tariffs Carney has to respond with an actual action (or no action which is also an action of sorts).