Canadian Federal Election

[samne]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Sure, but if you're going to put this forward, for transparency you should have noted that when Polymarket began tracking Carney on January 12, Poilievre was at 86% and Carney was at 12%.

Sure. No problem with that. I’d expect the margin would even become narrower as we get closer.

Currently 338 also has the CPC projected to be 20 seats clear of a majority.

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Not sure what these polls like Angus are really saying at this point.

[Loco101]

I also posted this in the Quebec forum:

Check out this Léger poll that was just released for Quebec:

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uplo...025-Finale.pdf

BIG surge for Liberal support federally and even provincially after Trump threatens to make Canada the 51st state.

FEDERAL: (Quebec only)

LPC: 29%

BQ: 29%

CPC: 24%

NDP: 12%

GPC: 3%

PPC: 3%


PROVINCIAL:

PQ: 30%

CAQ: 21%

PLQ: 21%

PCQ: 14%

QS: 10%


Support for SOVEREIGNTY of Quebec:

(among those decided)

YES: 33%

NO: 67%

[Loco101]

Now the federal Liberals are pretty much tied with the Bloc in Quebec and are tied with the Conservatives in Ontario. This really doesn't tell us how things will go during the election campaign but at the moment it puts a lot of seats back in play for the Liberals.

[Marshsparrow]

Most of it will come down to which electorate is more determined and actually shows up to vote... the Trump 51st state issue may be a driver for a higher electoral turnout.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by samne

US election polls were garbage. All had Kamala.

The polymarket ended up being leading and most accurate indicator.

Polymarket for Canada’s next PM has:

Poilievre 76%
Carney 24%

https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada


Let’s see how this holds up during the race.

Let’s see how this holds up during the race.[/QUOTE]

That's a decent if not great bet at 25%. Conservatives are still the favorites but if the Trump threat continues it's easy to see the polls remaining close with a break for Francophones in Quebec I understand Liberals are on track for more seats than even 2015. NDP collapse makes 905 very tough for Conservatives. Atlantic Canada also seems to have returned to the Liberals. Those three combined with the scattering of other safe seats and it's a pretty clear win. Quebec can easily turn back to the Bloc and 905 is tight enough that it could flip too but for the first time in years they have a path.


338 has a lag until older polls fall out. There model is likely a Conservative minority at this point should current polls stay. Abacus still has a huge Con lead which makes the average still a solid Con lead. Most of the other polls have it tight enough to be a tossup.

Originally Posted by samne

Sure. No problem with that. I’d expect the margin would even become narrower as we get closer.

Currently 338 also has the CPC projected to be 20 seats clear of a majority.

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Not sure what these polls like Angus are really saying at this point.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by samne

Sure. No problem with that. I’d expect the margin would even become narrower as we get closer.

Currently 338 also has the CPC projected to be 20 seats clear of a majority.

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Not sure what these polls like Angus are really saying at this point.

As another said, 338's modelling uses a weighted average of recent polls, with older polls declining in importance. It can lag trends, particularly when things begin shifting quickly. Trend lines are the thing, not the specific percentages and seat counts.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Sure, but if you're going to put this forward, for transparency you should have noted that when Polymarket began tracking Carney on January 12, Poilievre was at 86% and Carney was at 12%.

PP as PM also includes a CPC minority. I think PP would consider that a failure.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

As another said, 338's modelling uses a weighted average of recent polls, with older polls declining in importance. It can lag trends, particularly when things begin shifting quickly. Trend lines are the thing, not the specific percentages and seat counts.

He also doesn't use the "if Carney was leader" polls. When you ask who would you vote for today that implies Trudeau so many people are answering as such. Grave's seemed to be off in left field initially but he was starting his poll with now that Trudeau has resigned who would you vote for which changes things. A short honeymoon is likely but if Carney was leader and the election was tomorrow I tend to think that he might eke out a win. People are scared out there.

[Marshsparrow]

Pierre just isn't likeable.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Pierre just isn't likeable.

That's debatable. He is very good on the attack. There are echoes of Mulclair actually. Polievre has been excellent holding Trudeau to account. His simple message also resonated. Putting meat on the bones is another matter. He doesn't have to worry about another opposition leader usurping him but in some ways that's a weakness as a collapsed NDP is dangerous for the Cons.

[Truenorth00]

CPC messaging is off. Lots of talk about resources and how they'll use that in the trade fight. How much have they talked about defending manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec? Imagine being an auto worker in Southern Ontario and hearing the next would be PM treat your livelihood like a nice to have luxury. No accident that the guys seen standing up for Canadian jobs (not resource revenue) are rising in the polls. This is as true provincially (see Doug Ford) as federally.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

CPC messaging is off. Lots of talk about resources and how they'll use that in the trade fight. How much have they talked about defending manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec? Imagine being an auto worker in Southern Ontario and hearing the next would be PM treat your livelihood like a nice to have luxury. No accident that the guys seen standing up for Canadian jobs (not resource revenue) are rising in the polls. This is as true provincially (see Doug Ford) as federally.

At this rate, it’s worth wondering whether the Albertan wing in CPC is going to do him in this election.

[harls]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

That's debatable.

A Mr. Clean magic eraser is less abrasive than PP.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

CPC messaging is off. Lots of talk about resources and how they'll use that in the trade fight. How much have they talked about defending manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec? Imagine being an auto worker in Southern Ontario and hearing the next would be PM treat your livelihood like a nice to have luxury. No accident that the guys seen standing up for Canadian jobs (not resource revenue) are rising in the polls. This is as true provincially (see Doug Ford) as federally.

Assuming that Carney has some sort of plan to help these manufacturers. Most Liberal supporters are chomping at the bit to use the tariffs as an excuse to open the market to China (and destroy manufacturing here).

He is likely to the PM in 3 weeks. He has to come up with actual measures, not just vague platitudes.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

CPC messaging is off. Lots of talk about resources and how they'll use that in the trade fight. How much have they talked about defending manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec? Imagine being an auto worker in Southern Ontario and hearing the next would be PM treat your livelihood like a nice to have luxury. No accident that the guys seen standing up for Canadian jobs (not resource revenue) are rising in the polls. This is as true provincially (see Doug Ford) as federally.

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over. Ford's auto plant isn't even producing anything, Stellantis is living on borrowed time and the product they're making here seems to be doing a belly flop. That leaves Toyota, Honda and GM pickups. Hard to see how those would survive tariffs.

[samne]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Pierre just isn't likeable.

Neither was Harper. Even less so arguably

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over. Ford's auto plant isn't even producing anything, Stellantis is living on borrowed time and the product they're making here seems to be doing a belly flop. That leaves Toyota, Honda and GM pickups. Hard to see how those would survive tariffs.

Honda doesn’t make anything for the US market, it is Canadian (5th an 8th best selling vehicles in Canada) and European sales. Toyota makes the second best selling vehicle in Canada (and sales would increase if the Rogue and Escape were tariffed, so could probably get by on Canadian sales). I don’t know how much Lexus product is exported to the US. I suspect GM would pick most of the Ford and Ram sales and GM could run that line just with Canadian sales.

Ford will build something, they are not going to surrender the entire Canadian market.

Jeep Compass is probably a dud, but I think they make a police version, they might be able to get by on government comtracts for a little while. Hard to see the mini van as having a future, so Windsor assembly has real problems, although tariffs might force some SUV people to consider a minivan.

Parts are a problem, but these are global companies so should be able to figure out parts from other sources.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by samne

Neither was Harper. Even less so arguably

He was (is) a dork. PP is that plus extremely abrasive.

[harls]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Central Canadians need to accept their 1960's economic model s over. Ford's auto plant isn't even producing anything, Stellantis is living on borrowed time and the product they're making here seems to be doing a belly flop. That leaves Toyota, Honda and GM pickups. Hard to see how those would survive tariffs.

4 cylinder turbo pickup trucks are a really bad buy. Nissan still has a six cylinder naturally aspirated option.

Writing's on the wall for these guys.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

He is likely to the PM in 3 weeks. He has to come up with actual measures, not just vague platitudes.

Yes at this point, it's amazing the next PM who will be crowned in a matter of days, is a complete mystery and black box policy wise. All we've heard so far is a bunch of platitudes, and contradicting messages depending if you're receiving it in English or French.