Canadian Federal Election

[casper]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Don't believe Ekos and Mainstreet as they have a very built in Liberal bias. Ekos has existed as a Liberal inhouse Poling company for the last 40 years . Literally bread and butter. Mainstreet the same. They exist off Liberal friendly contracts.

Canada is in a National emergency that I would argue, that at the least, justifies a Co-alition government of all parties. Yet Jagmeet has all the horsepower. Is that fair to the highly frustrated Canadians that want this Government to at least go to the polls?

Instead we have a P.M. who will be gone in six weeks, leading National meetings with every Left leaning or defeated politician claiming that THEY will lead Canada. On top of that his soon to be crowned successor is receiving Government secret information with no security clearance, permission or electoral manifestation. Mark is a smoother Elon. I and Millions of Canadians WILL have a voice and I think a Canadian Kamala is in the offing.

I would look at it differently. The polls are interesting but not overly informative at this point in time. All they tell us is many Canadians are concerned (perhaps scared) and looking for stable leadership with a vision out of this. Until there is a new Liberal leader and the Conservatives "find themselves" we don't know where it is all going to end up.

In 20 days we hit a US self-imposed deadline on tariffs. There is likely closed door discussion going on in Ottawa and Washington between the two countries. The PM is responsible for the final decisions until he is not the PM.

So he had some meeting with premiers and business leaders and others (including conservatives) to help inform Canada's negotiation. He should also be asking the leaders of the other parties to be involved.

As for Mark Carney he has held senior positions in the Canada and UK government. If he does not have a security clearance, he has had one in the past.

In comparison to Musk, Carney has resigned all his board of director positions and UN positions to ensure there is no conflict of interest in running in the leadership race. Has Musk done the same? Musk is the CEO of one company that exists because of government contract and the second that has significant government subsidies on the sale of its product. Musk is in a conflict of interest and does not care. Carney has done everything to avoid one.

Musk has bypassed any US confirmation process typically required to be head of a US department. Carney (if he wins) will have participated in a very public leadership race and within weeks parliament will vote on their confidence in his government. Within the year, the public as a whole will vote.

Its not perfect. It would be better if he was already an MP. That said, its far more respectful of democratic processes that Musk appointment.

[Marty_Mcfly]

You can dismiss EKOS if you want, there's definitely something more happening there. I think they're having the same polling error that they had in the lead up to the 2021 election, with an artificially high PPC all at the expense of the CPC.

But at this point you have to look at every poll and realize that there's been a bump and it's real. Will it be sustained? If an election were held today do I think we'd see those hypothetical Carney numbers come to fruition? Not likely, but you can't just dismiss it at this point, there's too much smoke.

What I would be curious to see is if there's still some sustained momentum for Liberal polling once Carney is elected leader, whether they themselves make an election call to try and capitalize on it. The longer you wait to go to the polls, the longer your giving the Conservatives to target their new messaging against you. I think it'd be a risky play to try and wait it out to the fall knowing very well that you're a 10-year-old government with an electorate who still say they're looking for change.

[Truenorth00]

Kim Campbell had a bump when she took over. And then got crushed in the election after. Same vibes here.

[MolsonExport]

Who'd rather a "Canadian Kamala" (Dartguard's expression) than an "Odious Orange Appeaser" ?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

You can dismiss EKOS if you want, there's definitely something more happening there. I think they're having the same polling error that they had in the lead up to the 2021 election, with an artificially high PPC all at the expense of the CPC.

But at this point you have to look at every poll and realize that there's been a bump and it's real. Will it be sustained? If an election were held today do I think we'd see those hypothetical Carney numbers come to fruition? Not likely, but you can't just dismiss it at this point, there's too much smoke.

What I would be curious to see is if there's still some sustained momentum for Liberal polling once Carney is elected leader, whether they themselves make an election call to try and capitalize on it. The longer you wait to go to the polls, the longer your giving the Conservatives to target their new messaging against you. I think it'd be a risky play to try and wait it out to the fall knowing very well that you're a 10-year-old government with an electorate who still say they're looking for change.

You are right about all of that. I'm wondering how much people will end up voting based on the party name, the party leaders and local candidates. Mark Carney is definitely impressing more people than PP at this point but it doesn't mean an automatic Liberal victory by any means. Even in my community people are talking about Carney and liking him more than PP but it will be a NDP-CPC contest here with the CPC candidate looking a lot better no matter what happens at the leadership level. My area used to vote Liberal quite a often but it would take a lot to have a Liberal victory here anytime soon.

I'm not making any predictions at this point because the election campaign will be where we see the real game played. PP is definitely someone who isn't a nice guy politically and has boxed himself into many corners on various issues and especially with Trump. He will have to have policies that appeal to swing voters in order to win and with the Trump threats he may not respond well to them which can be political suicide especially in Ontario.

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Kim Campbell had a bump when she took over. And then got crushed in the election after. Same vibes here.

I think a lot will depend on what's happening in the US. If we continue on this rollercoaster ride, I feel that will strongly favour the Liberals. If things stabilize and quiet down, I think the Conservatives will surge back again.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Kim Campbell had a bump when she took over. And then got crushed in the election after. Same vibes here.

That's why we can't really predict what will happen in the end. The Campbell PCs also had the most disastrous election campaign for an incumbent federal party. We don't know how PP and Carney (assuming he's leader) will fare in a campaign.

I'm someone who finds PP to be way too negative to be successful campaigning but it's not always just about who the leader is as I've mentioned before but sometimes it can be.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by jamincan

I think a lot will depend on what's happening in the US. If we continue on this rollercoaster ride, I feel that will strongly favour the Liberals. If things stabilize and quiet down, I think the Conservatives will surge back again.

Having Trump in the spotlight in Canadian politics is definitely a wildcard.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Who'd rather a "Canadian Kamala" (Dartguard's expression) than an "Odious Orange Appeaser" ?

I'd say Anita Anand would be the Canadian Kamala although I'd prefer Anand much more over Harris and of course Trump.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'd say Anita Anand would be the Canadian Kamala although I'd prefer Anand much more over Harris and of course Trump.

That's an insult to Anand. I think she's way more competent than Harris as a bureaucrat. But I also think she's probably less capable as a politician.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's an insult to Anand. I think she's way more competent than Harris as a bureaucrat. But I also think she's probably less capable as a politician.

It's too bad she's not re-offering in the upcoming election. She makes a highly competent cabinet minister, and with so many other people jumping ship, her star would surely rise in any Carney cabinet. The new calculus suggests a much more competitive campaign now than even a month ago. I wonder if she would reconsider?

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's too bad she's not re-offering in the upcoming election. She makes a highly competent cabinet minister, and with so many other people jumping ship, her star would surely rise in any Carney cabinet. The new calculus suggests a much more competitive campaign now than even a month ago. I wonder if she would reconsider?

It’s a good question. I actually wonder how many liberal MP’s will reconsider running now that JT’s stepping down.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That's an insult to Anand. I think she's way more competent than Harris as a bureaucrat. But I also think she's probably less capable as a politician.

I don't see how they are remotely similar other than both having Indian parents and being women. Kamala had a long political career having accomplished little before that. She wasn't particularly effective politician either. Winning California races as consensus choices and of course having no Republican opposition. Anand entered politics late in life and has proven to be a very competent manager and decent enough politician.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'd say Anita Anand would be the Canadian Kamala although I'd prefer Anand much more over Harris and of course Trump.

Anand has far more gravitas than Harris. She was in the middle of the Covid response and by all accounts was a very credible Defence minister. One of Trudeau's few remaining talents on his bench.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Knew it was coming, but wow. Pallas Data poll showing Carney and the LPC leading 39-38. This may be one of the greatest polling flips in the shortest period of time I've ever seen.

Given the concentration of vote for the CPC in the prairies, and Libs leading Ont/QC that could be majority territory.

Interesting take from the Pallas Poll is that Carney's surge in support is really just the OK boomers rallying behind him. There's now a dichotomy where the Canadian youth are not buying Katie Telford's koolaid, and are still sticking with the Conservatives en mass. So now we have the gerontocracy flexing its electoral muscle:





https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1887952408187138187

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Interesting take from the Pallas Poll is that Carney's surge in support is really just the OK boomers rallying behind him. There's now a dichotomy where the Canadian youth are not buying Katie Telford's koolaid, and are still sticking with the Conservatives en mass. So now we have the gerontocracy flexing its electoral muscle:





https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1887952408187138187

Yes, like every election it will be determined by likelier voters who are older. The TikTok crowd may or may not come out to vote for their favoured meme-lords.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Yes, like every election it will be determined by likelier voters who are older. The TikTok crowd may or may not come out to vote for their favoured meme-lords.

No wonder Katie Telford's gang keeps doubling down on policies that benefit the Boomers to the detriment of younger Canadians.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Innovate Research dropped a poll this morning that shows a lot less extreme swing, but still very much a bump for the Liberals. Still would result in a CPC majority.

Interesting question though, they asked between Carney and Poilievre, and Freeland and Poilievre, which they thought would be best equipped to handle Trump.

Carney vs Poilievre:
Poilievre: 37%
Carney: 34%
Neither: 15%
Unsure: 14%

Freeland vs Poilievre
Poilievre: 38%
Freeland: 27%
Neither: 21%
Unsure: 14%

Polls seem to still be split on this issue (for now)

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by whatnext

That's exactly the sign of an effective Opposition. They got the Liberal frontrunners to promise they'd ditch the very carbon tax that they had claimed was essential to fight climate change.

Whether he can recalibrate this to something like "Carney will find a way to carbon tax you, look at his history" remains to be seen.

Yeah. They spread misinformation to make an effective program politically toxic and proposed no replacement. Not for the betterment of the country but for selfish political gain. Great opposition.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by trueviking

Yeah. They spread misinformation to make an effective program politically toxic and proposed no replacement. Not for the betterment of the country but for selfish political gain. Great opposition.

How was making housing costs astronomical and ruining the hopes and dreams of younger generations for the betterment of the country? Talk about selfish political gains. Great government.