Canadian Federal Election

[MolsonExport]

Part of it is self-inflicted. PP made so much noise about the Carbon Tax. His unique selling proposition was either "Axe the tax!" or "I'm not Trudeau!".

With the shitshow and threats coming from Trump and the United States, the Carbon Tax has become something comparatively trivial. And Trudeau is taking a hike.

From a branding perspective, "what I am" is usually more compelling and sustainable than "what I am not"

Carney is very wisely positioning himself as someone with the depth and experience to steer us through these very troubled waters.

I won't vote for someone that I see might go the ingratiation route, or someone that will (re)act impulsively.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

It’ll be simultaneously funny and sad if people still vote for PP anyway. It may happen.
Sometimes, people aren’t as bright as expected.

Well Carney has some experience but so does PP and he also has the advantage of understanding and having access to the right wing ecosystem. The Convoy very much put Canada on the map of many of them so a PP government joining in Trtump's anti-woke crusade and moving away from a climate focus could be popular. Trump is pretty transactional so I wouldn't count on that helping too much but it certainly is a reasonable thesis.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Carney is very wisely positioning himself as someone with the depth and experience to steer us through these very troubled waters.

How is he going to do that? He has made a vague promise to double defence spending without saying how he will pay for it. He has flirted with John Stewart. He has promised carbon-based tariffs which will put us in a trade war with all of our trading partners, including the US.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How is he going to do that? He has made a vague promise to double defence spending without saying how he will pay for it. He has flirted with John Stewart. He has promised carbon-based tariffs which will put us in a trade war with all of our trading partners, including the US.

The carbon talk is probably technocratic and maybe a bit designed to solidify his left flank but opens the door to exactly the (correct) criticism on the whole carbon tax. PP's argument can be: First they destroyed affordability in this country now they've realized their mistake but they think the mistake was letting you know you are paying. Worst of all this is will antagonize Trump and other trade partners. His carbon tax obsession is a risk we can't take.

[csbvan]

Knew it was coming, but wow. Pallas Data poll showing Carney and the LPC leading 39-38. This may be one of the greatest polling flips in the shortest period of time I've ever seen.

Given the concentration of vote for the CPC in the prairies, and Libs leading Ont/QC that could be majority territory.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Knew it was coming, but wow. Pallas Data poll showing Carney and the LPC leading 39-38. This may be one of the greatest polling flips in the shortest period of time I've ever seen.

Given the concentration of vote for the CPC in the prairies, and Libs leading Ont/QC that could be majority territory.

Leading 39-38 in Ontario?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Knew it was coming, but wow. Pallas Data poll showing Carney and the LPC leading 39-38. This may be one of the greatest polling flips in the shortest period of time I've ever seen.

Given the concentration of vote for the CPC in the prairies, and Libs leading Ont/QC that could be majority territory.

Leading Ontario by one point is far from a majority. The Conservatives probably have 75 Seats west of Ontario so a tie in Ontario makes it very likely the Conservatives win a minority or with a decent result in Quebec and Atlantic Canada they could still get a majority. The Liberals would need a huge win in Quebec even to get to a plurality along with a strong result in Atlantic Canada.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Leading Ontario by one point is far from a majority. The Conservatives probably have 75 Seats west of Ontario so a tie in Ontario makes it very likely the Conservatives win a minority or with a decent result in Quebec and Atlantic Canada they could still get a majority. The Liberals would need a huge win in Quebec even to get to a plurality along with a strong result in Atlantic Canada.

No, he's leading nationally by 1 point. Likely up more than 5 in Ontario with those numbers. Likely in-line with what Mainstreet and Ekos are showing in Ontario.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

How is he going to do that? He has made a vague promise to double defence spending without saying how he will pay for it. He has flirted with John Stewart. He has promised carbon-based tariffs which will put us in a trade war with all of our trading partners, including the US.

Elections aren't won on policy anymore. Just make shit up. Isn't that how it works? So if it runs on vibes, details like those you are demanding are superfluous. Now, how he squares the circle with bad vibes from the Trudeau era is hard to imagine. And I still think this is a wipeout coming. But on the pure politics of it, I recognize that I am one of the old-fashioned folks who thinks about policy. Time for you to recognize, you're in that minority with me.

By the way, Republicans in the US have flirted with the idea of carbon tariffs as a tool to target China. I don't think it would offend the Americans if they are inside of the tariff free zone as opposed to outside.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Elections aren't won on policy anymore. Just make shit up. Isn't that how it works? So if it runs on vibes, details like those you are demanding are superfluous. Now, how he squares the circle with bad vibes from the Trudeau era is hard to imagine. And I still think this is a wipeout coming. But on the pure politics of it, I recognize that I am one of the old-fashioned folks who thinks about policy. Time for you to recognize, you're in that minority with me.

Indeed, right now I’m just thinking who’s gonna buy Carney’s message and who’s gonna buy Poilièvre’s.
This can well be a highly divisive election.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by csbvan

No, he's leading nationally by 1 point. Likely up more than 5 in Ontario with those numbers. Likely in-line with what Mainstreet and Ekos are showing in Ontario.

Oh I missed that. I didn't expect that at all. A national lead is crazy.

Up 5 in Ontario and with a strong lead in Quebec is probably still only a minority but could be a clear lead over the Conservatives despite only 1 point nationwide advantage. Especially as the Conservatives have a decent number in Quebec but distributed fairly evenly so inefficient in seats.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Part of it is self-inflicted. PP made so much noise about the Carbon Tax. His unique selling proposition was either "Axe the tax!" or "I'm not Trudeau!".

With the shitshow and threats coming from Trump and the United States, the Carbon Tax has become something comparatively trivial. And Trudeau is taking a hike.

I completely agree. PP created a "carbon tax" narrative and it worked. Not just due to the people hating the carbon tax but rather how people associated it with a rising cost of living and the carbon tax adding insult to injury. Added to this was the housing crisis which everyone blames, and rightfully so, on Trudeau's doors-wide-open immigration policy. He also capitalized on the fact that Trudeau was universally hated and kept saying how he would fight in the next election. All of this was a bonanza for PP and the Tories.

Now that narrative has gone thru a 180. Trudeau is leaving and Carney is the heir apparent and, unlike Freeland, doesn't have the Trudeau baggage that comes with it. The carbon tax is now nearly irrelevant in people's minds as Trump and his threats have become centre stage. Added to this is that Trudeau is bringing the immigration ponzi-scheme to a screeching halt and already rents are declining nationwide.

PPs & the Tories "raison d'etre" has evaporated. Of course that is great news for Carney but now he will have to start offering alternatives and so far he has been very evasive when asked questions about his policies. Added to this, Carney has never even engaged in an election little alone for PM. Being personable, having a great reputation, and being well known does not mean one can campaign and/or debate effectively and elections are usually won after the debates.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I have the Pallas report which I'm assuming will be released to the public tomorrow.

Overview:

Top-Line (Which party would you vote for, no leader prompt)
CPC: 40%
LPC: 34%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 7%
GRN: 3%
PPC: 3%
Other: 2%

Regional breakdown:
ATL: CPC +1 (41/40/10)
QC: LPC +6 (36/30)
ON: CPC +5 (42/37/12)
PR: CPC +26 (51/25 liberal/20)
AB: CPC +47 (66/19 liberal/11)
BC: CPC +7 (42/35 liberal/18)


When prompted about possible Liberal leaders:
Top-Line for Carney:
LPC: 39%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 9%
BQ: 7%
GRN: 3%
PPC: 4%
Other: 1%

Regional breakdown:
ATL: LPC +8 (44/36/9)
QC: LPC +9 (39/30)
ON: LPC +3 (43/40/9)
PR: CPC +21 (51/30 liberal/17)
AB: CPC +40 (66/26 liberal/5)
BC: CPC +2 (41/39 liberal/8)


Top-Line for Freeland:
CPC: 41%
LPC: 31%
NDP: 13%
BQ: 8%
GRN: 2%
PPC: 3%
Other: 2%

Regional breakdown:
ATL: CPC +6 (42/36/11)
QC: BQ +1 (35/34)
ON: CPC +7 (42/35/13)
PR: CPC +26 (50/24 liberal/19)
AB: CPC +54 (66/15/15)
BC: CPC +16 (46/30 liberal/17)


Curious as to why so many folks would jump from the NDP over to the Liberals with Carney as their leader. None the less, I think that this shows that Carney has the most upside for Liberal leader (I think we all knew this), would definitely be interested to see if this type of bump is sustained or if it sort of fizzles out once he's become the Liberal leader.

EDIT: lol they didn't release to the public yet, but someone updated the wiki page for opinion polling with the link we were sent to view the report. I suppose you can just review it for yourselves https://files.constantcontact.com/f737aa99901/481ac616-abe0-4f16-808f-12b7e595ac25.pdf

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The carbon talk is probably technocratic and maybe a bit designed to solidify his left flank but opens the door to exactly the (correct) criticism on the whole carbon tax. PP's argument can be: First they destroyed affordability in this country now they've realized their mistake but they think the mistake was letting you know you are paying. Worst of all this is will antagonize Trump and other trade partners. His carbon tax obsession is a risk we can't take.

Not certain about the carbon tariff. But is that not the direction the EU is going in?

What would sound reasonable to me is if you have a free trade agreement with Canada your stuff enters under the terms of the agreement. If not we have carbon tariffs.

Why would Trump be antagonized by something that does not apply to the US. They do have a free trade agreement with us. The only way it would impact him is if he in some way is trying to get out of the agreement he signed or did something so outrageous that it rendered it null and void.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Not certain about the carbon tariff. But is that not the direction the EU is going in?

What would sound reasonable to me is if you have a free trade agreement with Canada your stuff enters under the terms of the agreement. If not we have carbon tariffs.

Why would Trump be antagonized by something that does not apply to the US. They do have a free trade agreement with us. The only way it would impact him is if he in some way is trying to get out of the agreement he signed or did something so outrageous that it rendered it null and void.

The direction but in the same way we are moving to the Net Zero direction. In the medium term it's possible there is a tariff on steel and other intensive industries. This is also all that Carney is talking about. You need to do it to protect industries if you are going to start taxing them. There is a lot of low hanging fruit putting industry where it can be a lot less carbon intensive but that's easy to say with super low carbon Aluminum like Canada has. It happens to be low cost as well but that's not always the case.

Trump isn't rational and neither are voters so it shouldn't be too hard to taint Carney with the brush of Carbon Tax Carney if he is proposing a nuanced policy. It's so marginally beneficial it's really hard to understand why he's fixated on talking about it. The left flank will fall in line when the spectre of Polievre gets close. Trying to thread the needle is a risky strategy when the carbon tax is so toxic.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Part of it is self-inflicted. PP made so much noise about the Carbon Tax. His unique selling proposition was either "Axe the tax!" or "I'm not Trudeau!".

With the shitshow and threats coming from Trump and the United States, the Carbon Tax has become something comparatively trivial. And Trudeau is taking a hike...

That's exactly the sign of an effective Opposition. They got the Liberal frontrunners to promise they'd ditch the very carbon tax that they had claimed was essential to fight climate change.

Whether he can recalibrate this to something like "Carney will find a way to carbon tax you, look at his history" remains to be seen.

[ssiguy]

Another advantage Carney has is Singh. Singh, and the NDP brass, were too stupid to bring down the gov't and strike while the iron was hot. Due to Trudeau's plunging support and the Liberals endless scandals, they had a real chance of beating the Liberals and even an outside chance of becoming the official opposition but they completely blew it. Carney & PP are fresh leaders and Singh is now viewed as yesterday's man made worse by the fact that he professed to hating the Liberals while continually propping them up.

Things have changed so much in the last 2 months it's hard to wrap your head around and the more beligerante Trump becomes, the better it is for the Liberals. It's too late for the NDP, they've dug their own grave but for PP it's not but him and the Tories better pivot really fast if they want to save their skins.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by csbvan

No, he's leading nationally by 1 point. Likely up more than 5 in Ontario with those numbers. Likely in-line with what Mainstreet and Ekos are showing in Ontario.

Then you said Ekos and Mainstreet. Talk about Copium. Ekos has been trying to suck up to the Liberals since they missed the July 23 shift to the Conservatives. The Liberals are known to exist in their own self licking Ice Cream cone for Policy, stats, Jobs and hope. Butts and Telford are under the impression that Trump will deliver another rabbit out of the hat especially in Ontario and Quebec. Folks are not sure of anything but by the time we go to the Federal Polls the Trumps grift will be relearned and absorbed.

We in Canada will soon learn what the REAL ASK of Trump is going to be.
51 st State ? Well if you believe Trudeau, why not, as the pearl clutchers in Canada have followed everything the man has said so far. I opened a Black Horse tonight and have calmed the Fuck down. A little ACDC helps as well.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Then you said Ekos and Mainstreet. Talk about Copium. Ekos has been trying to suck up to the Liberals since they missed the July 23 shift to the Conservatives. The Liberals are known to exist in their own self licking Ice Cream cone for Policy, stats, Jobs and hope. Butts and Telford are under the impression that Trump will deliver another rabbit out of the hat especially in Ontario and Quebec. Folks are not sure of anything but by the time we go to the Federal Polls the Trumps grift will be relearned and absorbed.

We in Canada will soon learn what the REAL ASK of Trump is going to be.
51 st State ? Well if you believe Trudeau, why not, as the pearl clutchers in Canada have followed everything the man has said so far. I opened a Black Horse tonight and have calmed the Fuck down. A little ACDC helps as well.

What is this post even supposed to be? Like what are you trying to say? It's actually incomprehensible

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by csbvan

What is this post even supposed to be? Like what are you trying to say? It's actually incomprehensible

Don't believe Ekos and Mainstreet as they have a very built in Liberal bias. Ekos has existed as a Liberal inhouse Poling company for the last 40 years . Literally bread and butter. Mainstreet the same. They exist off Liberal friendly contracts.

Canada is in a National emergency that I would argue, that at the least, justifies a Co-alition government of all parties. Yet Jagmeet has all the horsepower. Is that fair to the highly frustrated Canadians that want this Government to at least go to the polls?

Instead we have a P.M. who will be gone in six weeks, leading National meetings with every Left leaning or defeated politician claiming that THEY will lead Canada. On top of that his soon to be crowned successor is receiving Government secret information with no security clearance, permission or electoral manifestation. Mark is a smoother Elon. I and Millions of Canadians WILL have a voice and I think a Canadian Kamala is in the offing.