Posted Feb 8, 2025, 3:59 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: St. John's, NL
Posts: 7,641
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You can dismiss EKOS if you want, there's definitely something more happening there. I think they're having the same polling error that they had in the lead up to the 2021 election, with an artificially high PPC all at the expense of the CPC.
But at this point you have to look at every poll and realize that there's been a bump and it's real. Will it be sustained? If an election were held today do I think we'd see those hypothetical Carney numbers come to fruition? Not likely, but you can't just dismiss it at this point, there's too much smoke.
What I would be curious to see is if there's still some sustained momentum for Liberal polling once Carney is elected leader, whether they themselves make an election call to try and capitalize on it. The longer you wait to go to the polls, the longer your giving the Conservatives to target their new messaging against you. I think it'd be a risky play to try and wait it out to the fall knowing very well that you're a 10-year-old government with an electorate who still say they're looking for change.
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