Canadian Federal Election - Page 33

Marty_Mcfly · #**641** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 1:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by travis3000

There is no "collapse" per say. But there HAS been major movement in federal polling over the last 3 weeks.

Rewind back to a month ago, all polling agreed the CPC was leading by 25-28 points across Canada. Now we have a tightening race. Every single pollster has shown the lead dropping. Nanos and Ipsos both have the CPC lead down to 12-13 points. Angus Reid is showing similar things. Leger saw their lead drop from from 27 points to 16 points.

Mainstreet and Ekos both showing the CPC lead even smaller, only 3-7 points. Both have the LPC leading Ontario.

Then we have some new Leger data that just came out yesterday showing the LPC is up in Quebec , and under Mark Carney would be leading the province by 14 points. A new Nanos poll shows when asked "Who Is Best To Deal With Trump Administration" , Mark Carney smokes Poilievre 40-26% among respondents.

Taken together it's quite clear the Trump tariffs are causing a rise in LPC fortunes, and a decline in the Conservatives fortunes. Where this goes from here? Who knows. So much could happen in the political world between now and then.

No, this was an extension of the Leger poll and was only Quebec respondents.

jamincan · #**642** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 1:59 PM**

I think it was Ian Bremmer who said it, but he was talking about Trump's dealings with Canada and said that Trump was the knife that destroyed Trudeau. It was a pretty bad misreading of the situation, in my opinion, and makes me reconsider the expertise of these global foreign policy wonks. Trudeau was pretty much dead and on life support when Trump won the election, Freeland was the final killing blow, and Trump somehow breathed new life into him.

YOWetal · #**643** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The best hope for the Liberals is for Carney to win the leadership campaign, and to call an early election during the honeymoon phase (before he does anything stupid), and, at the same time, pray that Trump starts to mass his troops along the border in preparation for an invasion.

PP would be pulverized.

It doesn't have to be a literal invasion. If Trump threatens or imposes tariffs again he can ban the export of oil and watch the Conservatives be seen to be against Central Canada as they waffle in support.

Acajack · #**644** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The best hope for the Liberals is for Carney to win the leadership campaign, and to call an early election during the honeymoon phase (before he does anything stupid), and, at the same time, pray that Trump starts to mass his troops along the border in preparation for an invasion.

PP would be pulverized.

Um, I still think I'd rather have Pierre Poilievre as PM than have US troops massed up against our border.

But that's just me...

Dengler Avenue · #**645** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It doesn't have to be a literal invasion. If Trump threatens or imposes tariffs again he can ban the export of oil and watch the Conservatives be seen to be against Central Canada as they waffle in support.

At the expense of western alienation? That will give Trump a perfect opportunity to apply his usual divide-and-conquer tactics. Trump may well have already seen the crack in Canadian unity called Danielle Smith.

Nashe · #**646** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

"I can't take off MORE glasses!"

YOWetal · #**647** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

At the expense of western alienation? That will give Trump a perfect opportunity to apply his usual divide-and-conquer tactics. Trump may well have already seen the crack in Canadian unity called Danielle Smith.

Well can try and patch up the differences after the election. But even ignoring electoral politics the federal government could compensate workers, companies and the province for the lost revenue. Instead of fire hosing money for months it would bring the issue to a head.

casper · #**648** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It doesn't have to be a literal invasion. If Trump threatens or imposes tariffs again he can ban the export of oil and watch the Conservatives be seen to be against Central Canada as they waffle in support.

I would expect cutting off oil and electricity sales would be a last resort. Something you do if things get uber crazy. At that point I would not worry about west getting upset. They would be the ones pushing for it.

This is going to be a difficult four years and there will continue to be threats made.

I think the question now is timing vrs the US. March 1 as the new "deadline" and them some report to trump in April. My guess is parliament resumes with some threat/risk management bill to prepare Canada for possible tariffs. Perhaps that bill include a program to replace the carbon tax. Then in April after the dust settles on the tariff report to Trump we have the election.

travis3000 · #**649** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

No, this was an extension of the Leger poll and was only Quebec respondents.

Um No.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/...utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

YOWetal · #**650** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 2:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by casper

I would expect cutting off oil and electricity sales would be a last resort. Something you do if things get uber crazy. At that point I would not worry about west getting upset. They would be the ones pushing for it.

This is going to be a difficult four years and there will continue to be threats made.

A 25% tariff on everything is uber crazy. It is untenable for lots of US industry too but if they go through and are more targeted they could make a plan that does hurt us and is survivable for them. In that case our only level that makes it not survivable for them is shutting off oil. There is no product that we import from the US that we can tariff at any level that would cause widespread problems. Perhaps a 50% tariff on car parts would cause some factories to lose all their market if they are making parts for a model only made in Canada but that would mean all of ours would stop working. We exempted inputs with the idea that keeps our factories working but the final assembly being shut down in Canada is actually a big lever also on the US as the big 3 would be the biggest losers. Trying to keep our industry limping along might be counterproductive.

casper · #**651** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 3:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWetal

A 25% tariff on everything is uber crazy. It is untenable for lots of US industry too but if they go through and are more targeted they could make a plan that does hurt us and is survivable for them. In that case our only level that makes it not survivable for them is shutting off oil. There is no product that we import from the US that we can tariff at any level that would cause widespread problems. Perhaps a 50% tariff on car parts would cause some factories to lose all their market if they are making parts for a model only made in Canada but that would mean all of ours would stop working. We exempted inputs with the idea that keeps our factories working but the final assembly being shut down in Canada is actually a big lever also on the US as the big 3 would be the biggest losers. Trying to keep our industry limping along might be counterproductive.

CEO of Ford said in a recent interview that the 25% was unworkable. They would keep factories going for a week or two but would shut it all down and have to come up with a recovery plan from there. When he said shutdown he was talking about factories in the US.

The president in crazy. The 25% is a random number. All you needs is a Canadian Goose to relieve itself on the white house limo to trigger Trump to make it 50%.

WarrenC12 · #**652** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 4:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jamincan

I think it was Ian Bremmer who said it, but he was talking about Trump's dealings with Canada and said that Trump was the knife that destroyed Trudeau. It was a pretty bad misreading of the situation, in my opinion, and makes me reconsider the expertise of these global foreign policy wonks. Trudeau was pretty much dead and on life support when Trump won the election, Freeland was the final killing blow, and Trump somehow breathed new life into him.

That's just the US thinking they are the most important story in other countries' internal politics.

P'tit Renard · #**653** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 4:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Acajack

Um, I still think I'd rather have Pierre Poilievre as PM than have US troops massed up against our border.

But that's just me...

Agreed, seems a bit ridiculous to want Trump to threaten an international incident and/or invasion just to galvanize support for Carney?

MolsonExport · #**654** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 4:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nashe

"I can't take off MORE glasses!"

You can always eat the apple faster, or with more zeal, though.

kool maudit · #**655** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 5:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The best hope for the Liberals is for Carney to win the leadership campaign, and to call an early election during the honeymoon phase (before he does anything stupid), and, at the same time, pray that Trump starts to mass his troops along the border in preparation for an invasion.

PP would be pulverized.

What would happen after that?

kwoldtimer · #**656** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 5:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kool maudit

What would happen after that?

Peace and prosperity would reign throughout the land?

MolsonExport · #**657** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 5:34 PM**

^more Canadian apples to munch on, given export tariffs...

kool maudit · #**658** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 5:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Peace and prosperity would reign throughout the land?

Sounds great sign me up.

MonctonRad · #**659** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 5:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kool maudit

What would happen after that?

I was joking about the massed troops on the border of course.

Escalating sanctions and tariffs however are a real possibility.

I was just creating a scenario where voters would flee to Carney for protection rather than to the perpetually petulant PP.

Carney however has the experience to deal with a serious existential threat like this. It would still be a very serious situation leading to inflation, worsening unemployment and a recession, but, he is probably the best person to steer us out of the troubled waters ahead.

Dengler Avenue · #**660** Posted **Feb 7, 2025, 6:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I was joking about the massed troops on the border of course.

Escalating sanctions and tariffs however are a real possibility.

I was just creating a scenario where voters would flee to Carney for protection rather than to the perpetually petulant PP.

Carney however has the experience to deal with a serious existential threat like this. It would still be a very serious situation leading to inflation, worsening unemployment and a recession, but, he is probably the best person to steer us out of the troubled waters ahead.

It’ll be simultaneously funny and sad if people still vote for PP anyway. It may happen.
Sometimes, people aren’t as bright as expected.