Quote:
Originally Posted by adamuptownsj
Definitely several, but a lot will hinge on Green candidate quality.
Holt's own seat of Fredericton South-Silverwood
It's not like a post-election 'add the red and green votes together and that's what the Liberals would have won without vote splitting' analysis is of much value. Sure, seats where PCs win by ~3 points and the Greens get 15% would absolutely be vote splitting causing Liberal losses. Less so with seats where the PC margin and the Green total are in the same ballpark.
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Who the hell is the Green Party going to rely on beating Susan Holt in that riding? She'd be the first premier representing Fredericton as MLA in history, and she's been non stop touring the province for months now. I'd be shocked if Fredericton voters don't strongly vote in her favour... If the PC or Liberal leader was running in my Saint John riding and poised to become the first Premier representing Saint John in almost 100 years, I'd actually consider voting for either candidate, and I've never voted for a PC in my life.
I suspect many middle of the road PC voters in Fredericton South-Silverwood would considering voting for Holt for similar reasons, especially if they're informed voters who know that a vote for the PCs could actually help elect a Green candidate in that riding... NB has a long history of electing Premiers from rural areas, Higgs included. Susan Holt is very much a city person, and I think she appeals to urban voters a lot more than Higgs does, especially after almost six years of his almost never ending nonsense.
I'd be willing to bet she wins that riding, and wins the election. She's going to get a boost as a female leader thanks to Kamala Harris' surging poll numbers. I know it's a bit of a stretch, but I really do think it's going to have a bit of an impact, with how many billions are going to be devoted to campaigning for the first female POTUS in history. People like voting for history, and people in Fredericton South-Silverwood have two historic firsts to vote for: The First female premier, and first premier representing Fredericton.
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