Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Bernard Lord running for the Saint John-Kennebecasis would be truly weird, but politics is the art of the possible... so it could happen.

Would be funny if it was Peter MacKay. I think if the CPC would have voted in MacKay as leader instead of O'Toole, they could have ended up beating the Trudeau Liberals in the last election.

It'll be interesting to see who it ends up being. An MP who isn't chronically online, like Wayne Long, would probably be a good thing for Saint John, as long as they actually take a keen interest in advocating for the riding. I question how much a parachute candidate can actually care about the riding, but at the same time, I've always been of the strong belief that outsiders have a much more a positive outlook on the Saint John region than the locals who were born and raised here.

I wonder if they will actually move to the City of Saint John, and not Rothesay or Quispamsis... choosing to live in the city would be a promising signal, imo.

A parachute candidate who has been living in Toronto is definitely not moving to the area, they will rent a furnished apartment (probably from someone they know or would like to curry favour with) to simply maintain an address, hire some local staff for their constituency office, and then only show up here and there for large events or announcements.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I suspect that in spite of Higgs' seeming efforts to alienate a large swath of the more moderate wing of his party it may still be closer than some people think.

I wouldn't call it a moderate wing, but the pc party is trying to adjudicate the last leadership race. Kelly Van Buskirk being a lawyer for John Dornan for example: KVB was member of Norton's run for the PC leadership and a key member of the PC leadership locally.

Many of the PC leadership have been frozen out, or never have been a part of of Higgs' circle. Much of the strife within the PC party reflects this.

That said, its still Higgs to lose. Mind you, the candidate for Portland Simonds has already been to my house on a door knocking expedition; Dornan's too busy beekeeping to bother, I suspect.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Bernard Lord running for the Saint John-Kennebecasis would be truly weird, but politics is the art of the possible... so it could happen.

Would be funny if it was Peter MacKay. I think if the CPC would have voted in MacKay as leader instead of O'Toole, they could have ended up beating the Trudeau Liberals in the last election.

It'll be interesting to see who it ends up being. An MP who isn't chronically online, like Wayne Long, would probably be a good thing for Saint John, as long as they actually take a keen interest in advocating for the riding. I question how much a parachute candidate can actually care about the riding, but at the same time, I've always been of the strong belief that outsiders have a much more a positive outlook on the Saint John region than the locals who were born and raised here.

I wonder if they will actually move to the City of Saint John, and not Rothesay or Quispamsis... choosing to live in the city would be a promising signal, imo.

Peter McKay has many rea$ons not to run again. He's under an older parliament pension scheme that could cost him dearly if he won.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The potential downside to minority is that....................

1. It proves to be unstable and we are back to the polls within a year.

2. It gives a small party with relatively low political support an outsized influence on public policy and government decision making. (Especially so if the governing party is desparate to stay in power)

Having said that it certainly has some benefits as well.

I think minority governments can be very popular with the electorate, especially since they are so rare in provincial politics, but yes, they are unstable, because most politicians are corrupted by power, and want more power.

I like to think if opinion polls are favourable to a ruling Liberal minority supported by the Greens, that the Liberals would do the honourable thing and stick with it until the next election and go for a majority then... but the reality could be far more similar to what happened with Higgs's opportunistic 2020 election play, which unfortunately worked.

There's no doubt it would give the Greens outsized influence on public policy and government decision making, but I think that would mostly be a good thing in the context of NB politics, especially if it meant far more comprehensive and substantive tax reforms being passed.

As for benefits, a Liberal minority with the support of the Greens would mean close to 50% or more of voters would be represented by either the ruling government or those keeping them in power. Imo, that would be far more democratic than Higgs's 39% of the popular vote majority government.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

A parachute candidate who has been living in Toronto is definitely not moving to the area, they will rent a furnished apartment (probably from someone they know or would like to curry favour with) to simply maintain an address, hire some local staff for their constituency office, and then only show up here and there for large events or announcements.

I wouldn't go as far as saying definitely. Saint Johners wouldn't respond well to a Torontonian being there MP and part time resident of Saint John. I understand it's not required for MPs to reside in the residing they represent, but I think most Saint Johners pretty well expect them to at least live in the surrounding region. I think there's a definite chance that a successful parachute candidate from Toronto would end up buying a house here and actually move here after winning the seat. It's not that crazy, is it?

Myself personally, I could see myself preferring an MP based in Toronto that takes a keen interest in the riding, versus an MP living in Rothesay or Quispamsis who is personally opposed to regional amalgamation for Saint John. Though, I'd definitely prefer an MP that lives in Saint John who passionately cares about solving the many issues that impact this city.

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Peter McKay has many rea$ons not to run again. He's under an older parliament pension scheme that could cost him dearly if he won.

okay, it's definitely not MacKay then

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I wouldn't go as far as saying definitely. Saint Johners wouldn't respond well to a Torontonian being there MP and part time resident of Saint John.

Jean Chretien once represented Beausejour in parliament. Brian Mulroney first ran in the former federal riding encompassing Antigonish in Nova Scotia.

Stuff like this happens.........

A parachute candidate is usually high profile.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Jean Chretien once represented Beausejour in parliament. Brian Mulroney first ran in the former federal riding encompassing Antigonish in Nova Scotia.

Stuff like this happens.........

A parachute candidate is usually high profile.

In Europe PR there are usually two lists:

1. Candidates that actually run in an election
2. People that are on a second list and get appointed based on popular vote.

Parachute candidates is just a lite version of this. The fortunate thing is voters in Canada at least get to choose if they support (2) unlike in Europe. The party list system has serious drawbacks; where popularity within a party doesn't equal general popularity, nor competence.

Youngsters like David Hickey would thrive on such a system.

[MonctonRad]

T&T photo

Definition of an oxymoron or definition of a futile and meaningless gesture.

Your choice.

Bonne fete Acadien(ne).

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Jean Chretien once represented Beausejour in parliament. Brian Mulroney first ran in the former federal riding encompassing Antigonish in Nova Scotia.

Stuff like this happens.........

A parachute candidate is usually high profile.

^This. The prospect of having your MP in cabinet can be a powerful incentive to vote for them. Saint John hasn't seen a significant influx of Federal largess a cabinet member can bring since Gerry Merrithew and the days of the frigate program 40 years ago.

[TitleRequired]

CBC Comments (... I know, I know) suggests:

Poilievre is going to be in Saint John for a fundraising reception (another cash for access opportunity for the wealthy) which is being hosted, according to the invitation, by Melissa Young. No coincidence if you read between the lines.

https://www.skilledtradesontario.ca/abou...p/chief-executive-officer-and-registrar/

Would be consistant with the tone and tenure for Saint John.

Melissa Young, Chief Executive Officer and Registrar, is a results-oriented change leader who has over 30 years of experience in workforce development and the skilled trades. Her work focused on promoting the trades, harmonizing apprenticeships, developing partnerships with First Nations communities, Indigenous groups, labour and management, equity groups, and influencing the national landscape for apprenticeship.

Prior to leading Skilled Trades Ontario, Melissa was the Executive Director of the National Electrical Trade Council (NETCO), an alliance of the Canadian Electrical Contractors Association and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers to promote national Red Seal standards and safety in electrical skills training. Between 2000 and 2009, Melissa was the Executive Director of the Carpenters Training Centre of New Brunswick, where under her leadership the training institute grew by more than ten-fold. Melissa was the inaugural Regional Coordinator for the Atlantic Apprenticeship Harmonization project lead by the Council of Atlantic Premiers. This is one of many portfolios she held during her nine year tenure with the apprenticeship division with the government of New Brunswick.

Melissa has served as past Chair of the Canadian Council of Directors of Apprenticeship’s Communication and Promotion Committee and Board member of the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum. She was also appointed to the Government of Ontario’s Skilled Trades Panel which consulted extensively and produced a report that informed the development of the Building Opportunities in the Skilled Trades Act, 2021, the landmark legislation which modernized Ontario’s skilled trades and apprenticeship system.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

CBC Comments (... I know, I know) suggests:

Poilievre is going to be in Saint John for a fundraising reception (another cash for access opportunity for the wealthy) which is being hosted, according to the invitation, by Melissa Young. No coincidence if you read between the lines.

https://www.skilledtradesontario.ca/abou...p/chief-executive-officer-and-registrar/

Would be consistant with the tone and tenure for Saint John.

Melissa Young, Chief Executive Officer and Registrar, is a results-oriented change leader who has over 30 years of experience in workforce development and the skilled trades. Her work focused on promoting the trades, harmonizing apprenticeships, developing partnerships with First Nations communities, Indigenous groups, labour and management, equity groups, and influencing the national landscape for apprenticeship.

Prior to leading Skilled Trades Ontario, Melissa was the Executive Director of the National Electrical Trade Council (NETCO), an alliance of the Canadian Electrical Contractors Association and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers to promote national Red Seal standards and safety in electrical skills training. Between 2000 and 2009, Melissa was the Executive Director of the Carpenters Training Centre of New Brunswick, where under her leadership the training institute grew by more than ten-fold. Melissa was the inaugural Regional Coordinator for the Atlantic Apprenticeship Harmonization project lead by the Council of Atlantic Premiers. This is one of many portfolios she held during her nine year tenure with the apprenticeship division with the government of New Brunswick.

Melissa has served as past Chair of the Canadian Council of Directors of Apprenticeship’s Communication and Promotion Committee and Board member of the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum. She was also appointed to the Government of Ontario’s Skilled Trades Panel which consulted extensively and produced a report that informed the development of the Building Opportunities in the Skilled Trades Act, 2021, the landmark legislation which modernized Ontario’s skilled trades and apprenticeship system.

Mildly disappointing if correct. Solid seeming credentials but hardly what I'd consider a high profile/star candidate

[CharlotteSJ]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Mildly disappointing if correct. Solid seeming credentials but hardly what I'd consider a high profile/star candidate

I agree. Definitely not someone that should warrant forcing out other party candidates imo.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Mildly disappointing if correct. Solid seeming credentials but hardly what I'd consider a high profile/star candidate

Interesting assessment.

I take it as someone who can navigate and converse between the blue collar (possibly union) types, and the executives successfully; as exemplified by her career.

Someone who could talk to someone in Crescent Valley in the morning, and a business owner Rothesay in the afternoon.

While Long isn't running, his endorsements from the unions in SJ didn't hurt... Will be interesting who replaces him.

And her links to NB are not stale.

[Taeolas]

As for NB Politics, I get the feeling that no one is really paying much attention to anything yet. Any polls would basically be reflecting Anti-Higgs sentiments along with people's habitual voting habits, and don't really reflect much on Holt or Coon or any other party leaders yet.

Once summer is over, and especially once the campaign starts, people will start paying more attention, and we'll see then if Holt gets any secondary boost from the US Campaigns and/or how well she brings herself forward as a Liberal leader.

Just due to our pseudo two party alternating system, I have no doubt she will be premier. Higgs has been around too long and is well past his expiry date, so it's time for the ABC vote. How strong her party will be in the Leg will be the big question.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by CharlotteSJ

I agree. Definitely not someone that should warrant forcing out other party candidates imo.

From what I can see she has spent most of her life feeding at the public trough in a series of pseudo civil service/taxpayer funded jobs. While she may well have done good work I don't see it as being all that high profile......unless she has been given a nudge and a wink that if elected she is the next Labour Minister

Still without even having candidates nominated SJ-Kenn is looked upon as "CPC likely" by 338 Canada so I suspect it's considered at least a somewhat safe seat by the conservatives. The reasonable chance of a cabinet post certainly wouldn't hurt a CPC candidate's already good chance of winning.

[drewber]

With the legislature currently not in session when do we expect an official announcement of the election? Is it September 19th or could Higgs still ask for it to be sooner if he wanted to?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by drewber

With the legislature currently not in session when do we expect an official announcement of the election? Is it September 19th or could Higgs still ask for it to be sooner if he wanted to?

Nothing precludes asking for the writ to be dropped before. I would suspect the timing will be short as the last election, which was the minimum permitted.

It has to occur on a Monday that isn't a holiday. T&R falls under this on the 30th. edit: and thanksgiving.

Dates Permissible:
September 23
October 7, 21

(b) fix the date on which the writs will be issued, which shall be as follows:
(i) for a scheduled general election, the thirty-second day before ordinary polling day; and
(ii) for all other elections, not more than 38 nor less than 28 days before ordinary polling day;

ref:

https://www1.gnb.ca/Elections/en/prov24oct21/24oct21provschedulelist-e.asp

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by drewber

With the legislature currently not in session when do we expect an official announcement of the election? Is it September 19th or could Higgs still ask for it to be sooner if he wanted to?

I've heard a lot on the street about the election being called this coming Monday, so we might find out soon.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I've heard a lot on the street about the election being called this coming Monday, so we might find out soon.

I heard rumblings to that effect at a dinner party last night. Couple of people who were there are active in provincial politics but I suspect only Higgs and maybe a close group of advisers really know.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I've heard a lot on the street about the election being called this coming Monday, so we might find out soon.

Originally Posted by sailor734

I heard rumblings to that effect at a dinner party last night. Couple of people who were there are active in provincial politics but I suspect only Higgs and maybe a close group of advisers really know.

September 23 meets all requirements.