Quote:
Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn
Who the hell is the Green Party going to rely on beating Susan Holt in that riding? She'd be the first premier representing Fredericton as MLA in history, and she's been non stop touring the province for months now. I'd be shocked if Fredericton voters don't strongly vote in her favour... If the PC or Liberal leader was running in my Saint John riding and poised to become the first Premier representing Saint John in almost 100 years, I'd actually consider voting for either candidate, and I've never voted for a PC in my life.
I suspect many middle of the road PC voters in Fredericton South-Silverwood would considering voting for Holt for similar reasons, especially if they're informed voters who know that a vote for the PCs could actually help elect a Green candidate in that riding... NB has a long history of electing Premiers from rural areas, Higgs included. Susan Holt is very much a city person, and I think she appeals to urban voters a lot more than Higgs does, especially after almost six years of his almost never ending nonsense.
I'd be willing to bet she wins that riding, and wins the election. She's going to get a boost as a female leader thanks to Kamala Harris' surging poll numbers. I know it's a bit of a stretch, but I really do think it's going to have a bit of an impact, with how many billions are going to be devoted to campaigning for the first female POTUS in history. People like voting for history, and people in Fredericton South-Silverwood have two historic firsts to vote for: The First female premier, and first premier representing Fredericton.  |
The Harris thing is just stupid. Kamala Harris' August polling will have no impact on Susan Holt's October results. Bizarre to think there would be correlation. New Brunswick elected its rightmost premier who *bled substantial votes to his right* in 2018 at the nadir of the GOP brand in recent memory. Canada elected a strong CPC minority during Obama's 2008 rise. None of these events are related.
AFAIK, there's no 'a chance to make history by electing me, a woman' thing going on with Holt's campaign, which is probably a wise move. Being 'not Higgs' and promising moderation seems to be working well for the NB Liberals right now from a candidate recruitment perspective.
The riding voted
40 PC-39 Green-14 Liberal-5 PA in 2020. In 2018,
39 Green-25 Liberal-22 PC-12 PA, but that's a steep hole to start in. It's a three way tossup at this point. Liberals could win the most seats and lose this riding. I personally have it as tilt Liberal pickup, but they will have to nearly triple their vote share to do so securely. Greens aren't running a typical random candidate either. CUPE organizer, lawyer, strike leader, etc:
https://www.greenpartynb.ca/simon_ouellette
Something like 25 Green-33 PC-37 Liberal could happen, but it won't be a coronation by any means. Neither the Liberals or PCs have much room to play with to secure a majority, and I assume an immense amount of money and effort will be spent by all three parties here.
Was there a 'better' Anglo seat Holt could have realistically run in? Probably not. Maybe Fredericton North? More residually Liberal, somewhat, and elected a Liberal in 2018, but will feature an incumbent PC. Assuming she looked further from home, no leader would risk it all on Saint John Harbour's dogshit turnout. She certainly didn't want to take on Coon, who is in tougher turf himself, now that his seat runs to Oromocto town limits. Hell, the Liberals could realistically split the anti-PC vote there if they do well enough. Doesn't look like they ran a placeholder either.
https://nbliberal.ca/nb-liberals-nominate-joni-leger-in-fredericton-lincoln/
PC candidates don't seem particularly controversial or inspiring in either seat and are unlikely to over or underperform. NDP and PA won't be factors.
TL;DR
Holt will probably win this seat but not with a gigantic margin. The election is extremely competitive provincewide and both major parties need to thread a needle to secure a majority. There will not be a red tidal wave winning over a third of PC voters and a third of Green voters unless something dramatic happens in the next three months.
I avoided talking about Holt being hobbled by the national Liberal brand being in the gutter because she's smartly avoiding it, Notley-style. But Higgs will win some voters who disapprove of him, the question is how many-- and why they disapprove. With almost zero polling and neither the PCs nor the Liberals stumbling from a fundraising perspective, there doesn't appear to be panic from either side.
I've said for months on here both parties end up with 20+ seats and the Greens, 2-3. The Liberals just have a unique situation where their leader's seat is not a foregone conclusion, compounded by horrendous vote distribution.
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