New Brunswick Election

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

It's not binary, high surpluses or huge deficits were not the only two options, but way to present a false dichotomy, as you so often do.

It's not a false dichotomy. Even if we run balanced budgets into the future, we would still be spending hundreds of millions of dollars every year servicing accumulated debt. The only way to prevent this is by paying down on the debt. Higgs parsimony actually gives Holt more latitude for her program spending. She should thank him for his service.

We should keep running modest surpluses every year until our provincial debt is cut by at least one half.

Don't forget that not too long ago, NB was at risk of financial insolvency. I do not want that to happen again.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's not a false dichotomy. Even if we run balanced budgets into the future, we would still be spending hundreds of millions of dollars every year servicing accumulated debt. The only way to prevent this is by paying down on the debt. Higgs parsimony actually gives Holt more latitude for her program spending. She should thank him for his service.

We should keep running modest surpluses every year until our provincial debt is cut by at least one half.

Don't forget that not too long ago, NB was at risk of financial insolvency. I do not want that to happen again.

I don't think she's going to thank the premier responsible for people dying in the ER of heart attacks without even seeing a doctor, because he couldn't fund a proper system of clinics like those that exist in other provinces. When the ER ends up being the only option for a lot of New Brunswickers with non emergency medical ailments and maladies, that is completely unacceptable.

Yeah, it would be preferable to run modest surpluses until we pay down the debt more, but the key word there is moderation. Most New Brunswicker's didn't see Blaine Higgs's large surpluses as the result of moderation, but rather, negligence.

[Taeolas]

I think those surpluses are a big factor in what did Higgs in in the end.

It was well known when the Unions (Especially Nurses and Teachers Unions) were negotiating their contracts, Higgs would "Cry poor" and say there's no money to invest in Education and Health services and give those Unions appropriate wages.

It felt he often maybe tilted the books, saying the budget was going to have some deficits to prove his stance.

And then a few months later, surprise surprise, he was announcing "Huge surpluses!" to pay down the debt with. Meanwhile NBers were facing long wait times in ERs, closed ERs, lack of personal doctors, lack of teachers for the kids, lack of bus drivers, etc....

Higgs austeritied himself out of a job. We know we want to pay down the debt and making sure the budget is balanced is important for that. But at the same time, we want to make sure our standards of living are comparable to the other provinces. And year after year, Higgs's budget plans were pushing us further and further away from our fellow provinces.

Blatant overspending is bad, and should be controlled and punished.

Blatant UNDERspending is just as bad, but harder to notice until it is really hurting.

Time will tell how the budgets pan out with Holts plans. After Higgs's run, it will probably seem extravagant, even if she's just spending to get us back to the level of our peers. At least by having a solid majority, she has a full term to figure things out.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I don't think she's going to thank the premier responsible for people dying in the ER of heart attacks without even seeing a doctor, because he couldn't fund a proper system of clinics like those that exist in other provinces. When the ER ends up being the only option for a lot of New Brunswickers with non emergency medical ailments and maladies, that is completely unacceptable.

Yeah, it would be preferable to run modest surpluses until we pay down the debt more, but the key word there is moderation. Most New Brunswicker's didn't see Blaine Higgs's large surpluses as the result of moderation, but rather, negligence.

I think you are overestimating just how much better healthcare is in other provinces.

Holt's biggest issue may turn out to be managing expectations. There is no single magic bullet to fix our system. Yes, money can help (and is needed) but it's not the solution by itself. We are already spending more per capita than many systems that produce better outcomes than ours.

System wide reform needs to be seriously considered and that will come with political costs. Unfortunately, over the past 60+ years Canadians have been brainwashed into thinking our healthcare system is the "one true way" and any major changes can bring out the torches and pitchforks and howls of "Americanization"

[KnoxfordGuy]

So, in 2014 6 seats were taken away from the legislature due to population problems, from 55 to 49. Now, 10 years later we have grown by 100,000 people. When do we think more seats will be created? They will definitely be in the big 3 cities. Moncton absolutely. Growing like a bad weed

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I think you are overestimating just how much better healthcare is in other provinces.

Holt's biggest issue may turn out to be managing expectations. There is no single magic bullet to fix our system. Yes, money can help (and is needed) but it's not the solution by itself. We are already spending more per capita than many systems that produce better outcomes than ours.

System wide reform needs to be seriously considered and that will come with political costs. Unfortunately, over the past 60+ years Canadians have been brainwashed into thinking our healthcare system is the "one true way" and any major changes can bring out the torches and pitchforks and howls of "Americanization"

I've lived in three other provinces, NB has, by far, the worst healthcare system I've ever had to navigate. I must say the system did somehow come together for my father when he was dealing with stage III cancer, but it also nearly cost him his life. In the end, it took my dad literally yelling at his ENT doctor about socialized medicine to get his PET scan in a timely fashion, as our family doctor and doctors at St. Joe's misdiagnosed what turned out to be a melanoma on top of his head over the course of 8 months that spread tumours just above his shoulders.

Our family doctor is a decent guy, but he didn't even bother sending my dad for a consult with a dermatologist despite having a bump on top of his big bald head that refused to heal or go away, that he quite literally put a band aid on for my dad in his office. My dad had great plastic surgeons that fully resected the melanoma, and his ENT actually came through and got the PET done in like a week, and then went under for a 7 hour surgery that was successful and resulted in a full resection. However, my dad could have been a statistic if he didn't speak up and question the fairness of the 2-3 months his ENT told him he'd have to wait, despite being woefully let down by the medical system up until that point. My dad's ENT surgeon def saved his life, but he was lucky this all happened in December 2018/January 2019... had the cancer been discovered during Covid, there's no chance in hell he'd have got that PET as quickly as he did, and the same could likely be said for if it was discovered today, and my dad likely wouldn't have survived. My dad was also lucky that BMS completely covered the his adjuvant immunotherapy drugs, which could have cost into the tens of thousands. He would have been alright if they didn't cover the costs, because he has additional coverage through his former employer, but not all people have that.

Would the situation have been better in another province, or would the melanoma have been detected before it had spread? It's very much possible. I know this is all anecdotal, but when I was younger I was able to get into see a dermatologist for minor acne in a matter of weeks. The wait to see a dermatologist can be a many, many months here in NB.

The biggest gripe I have with the system, as someone without any major medical concerns, is that we don't have walk in clinics like other provinces have (where you can literally just walk in) we have places like St. Joe's and then the Regional Hospital. I'm primarily concerned about the state of the healthcare system as it relates to my parents, and other aging New Brunswickers who have serious health concerns, but can't get and access to the care they need in a timely fashion.

We're still lucky to have a system that is far, far better than the world average, but we're still very much lacking here in NB compared to other provinces. I agree system wide reform needs to be implemented and these will have economic and political costs. Also, Canadians tend to have this really messed up idea that we have a "great" healthcare system, simply because we don't have medical bankruptcies or greedy health insurance and drug companies like exist in the states, but in reality, we're far too proud of a system that is far below the standards set by other developed countries like Japan, France, Germany, Norway, and so on. The only thing we should emulate from the American system is the % of GDP they spend on healthcare. The US spends around 15% of their GDP on healthcare for a highly unequal system, when Canada should be increasing our spending from the current level around 11% of GDP to around 15% of our GDP, to improve our far more equal, universal health care system.

Excuse the tl;dr, but all I have is anecdotal evidence and experience based on my dealings with the NB healthcare system, and other provinces healthcare systems. I'm far from an expert, but based on my experience, the NB healthcare system is more of a pain in the ass to deal with than systems in other province's where I've lived.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

So, in 2014 6 seats were taken away from the legislature due to population problems, from 55 to 49. Now, 10 years later we have grown by 100,000 people. When do we think more seats will be created? They will definitely be in the big 3 cities. Moncton absolutely. Growing like a bad weed

That's certainly a good question. I noticed that looking back on past election results.

What I'm especially confused with regarding voter turnout/# of ballots cast, is that if our population grew by almost 100k since the 2020 election, how did the number of ballots cast not go up significantly if voter turnout was basically static? Is it just that many are not voting citizens, or not of voting age? Thought we'd crack 400k ballots, for sure.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I've heard some news commentators saying that PC voters maybe didn't turn out to a degree. Perhaps they didn't want to vote for Higgs again but didn't want to turn red or green. That would have had an impact on turnout for sure. That makes sense. No legitimate party for right of center voters besides the PC.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I've heard some news commentators saying that PC voters maybe didn't turn out to a degree. Perhaps they didn't want to vote for Higgs again but didn't want to turn red or green. That would have had an impact on turnout for sure. That makes sense. No legitimate party for right of center voters besides the PC.

Pretty sound theory.

[J81]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I don't think she's going to thank the premier responsible for people dying in the ER of heart attacks without even seeing a doctor, because he couldn't fund a proper system of clinics like those that exist in other provinces. When the ER ends up being the only option for a lot of New Brunswickers with non emergency medical ailments and maladies, that is completely unacceptable.

Yeah, it would be preferable to run modest surpluses until we pay down the debt more, but the key word there is moderation. Most New Brunswicker's didn't see Blaine Higgs's large surpluses as the result of moderation, but rather, negligence.

Blaming Higgs for NBs abysmal healthcare is lazy. Its been raped and pillaged for decades and the hands of both parties. Whats obvious to me is New Brunswickers in general have a very short memory and cant seem to make up their mind what they want.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by J81

Blaming Higgs for NBs abysmal healthcare is lazy. Its been raped and pillaged for decades and the hands of both parties. Whats obvious to me is New Brunswickers in general have a very short memory and cant seem to make up their mind what they want.

The death knell for Canadian health care was the Barer-Stoddart Report implemented federally by the Liberal Chretien administration and all provincial governments in the mid 1990s.

It stated at the time that too many physicians were being produced by Canadian medical schools, and that physicians were not busy enough, and were resorting to ordering unnecessary tests and performing unnecessary procedures in order to bulk up their billings. They recommended an immediate reduction in medical school enrollment which the governments at the time instituted with great glee.

I was practicing at the time, and almost all physicians couldn't believe what they were hearing. Even back then, we knew that a great reckoning was going to happen in the 2020s with the aging of the boomer generation. It seemed to be tremendously bad policy on the part of the governments to cut medical school enrollment when this meant that physicians would be aging out at the same time as when their patients would be needing more and more intensive medical care. We protested loudly, but, the governments liked what they heard from the health care economists more.

The economists said that physicians were nothing more than cost centres. Physicians were expensive. They ordered expensive tests and performed expensive procedures. They also admitted patients to hospitals which was doubly expensive. The best way to limit health care costs was to limit the number of physicians. The government loved hearing this.

And here we are now,

This will not be a quick fix. It will take 20-25 years to get physician resources back to where they should be. Our expectations of government should be limited. There are no quick fixes.

It takes 13-15 years to mint a physician.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by J81

Blaming Higgs for NBs abysmal healthcare is lazy. Its been raped and pillaged for decades and the hands of both parties. Whats obvious to me is New Brunswickers in general have a very short memory and cant seem to make up their mind what they want.

It might be lazy, but consider how many people have moved here where the only premier they’ve known is Higgs? Obviously Gallant, Lord, Graham and countless other premiers throughout NB history take some blame for the state of the healthcare system in its current form, but be realistic, they aren’t the ones people are going to blame.

If you expect every person who’s moved here, and every 18 year old to learn 30+ years of political history to have an informed discussion, good luck.

Who exactly should we blame for the current abysmal state of the healthcare system if not Blaine Higgs and 6 years of healthcare mismanagement? When does it become fully Susan Holt’s problem to own?

All I can say is get ready… a lot of Canadians moved to New Brunswick from provinces with better healthcare systems and more positive outlooks. NB remains fundamentally backwards in a lot of ways. The issues with our healthcare system are nothing compared to our outdated tax code, which is the fundamental issue holding back government financing and budgeting in this province.

Higgs is absolutely to blame for not delivering on tax reform when he billed himself as a great economic reformer and fixer.

His 2% HST cut promise was just desperation. He’s set the bar so low for Holt on tax reform, and we’re relying on Holt to deliver on her promise of comprehensive tax reform. Inaction on tax reform is the fundamental issue that is causing budgetary constraints across New Brunswick. The tax system is corrupt and inefficient from the assessments to the processes and policies determining the rates that residential properties pay and what industrial and commercial properties pay. When our largest hospital pays more in provincial taxes than the largest oil refinery in Canada, there’s a fundamental issue with the property tax system. Same with the recent issue of skyrocketing assessments on residential properties province-wide, while many industrial and commercial property assessments remained comparatively static.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The death knell for Canadian health care was the Barer-Stoddart Report implemented federally by the Liberal Chretien administration and all provincial governments in the mid 1990s.

It stated at the time that too many physicians were being produced by Canadian medical schools, and that physicians were not busy enough, and were resorting to ordering unnecessary tests and performing unnecessary procedures in order to bulk up their billings. They recommended an immediate reduction in medical school enrollment which the governments at the time instituted with great glee.

I was practicing at the time, and almost all physicians couldn't believe what they were hearing. Even back then, we knew that a great reckoning was going to happen in the 2020s with the aging of the boomer generation. It seemed to be tremendously bad policy on the part of the governments to cut medical school enrollment when this meant that physicians would be aging out at the same time as when their patients would be needing more and more intensive medical care. We protested loudly, but, the governments liked what they heard from the health care economists more.

The economists said that physicians were nothing more than cost centres. Physicians were expensive. They ordered expensive tests and performed expensive procedures. They also admitted patients to hospitals which was doubly expensive. The best way to limit health care costs was to limit the number of physicians. The government loved hearing this.

And here we are now,

This will not be a quick fix. It will take 20-25 years to get physician resources back to where they should be. Our expectations of government should be limited. There are no quick fixes.

It takes 13-15 years to mint a physician.

Good summation. Several friends of mine who are physicians in SJ have made similar comments when the topic comes up. I think it started with McKenna and the restriction on billing numbers in 92 then went downhill from there.

I've heard several recruiting stories over the years about two physician couples where one was actively courted to come here but declined only because there was no billing number for the spouse.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I've heard several recruiting stories over the years about two physician couples where one was actively courted to come here but declined only because there was no billing number for the spouse.

This has absolutely happened, and on multiple occasions. We have missed out on a number of extremely qualified physicians because the hospital wanted him (her) but, there was no number available for the spouse. The DOH refused to budge.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This has absolutely happened, and on multiple occasions. We have missed out on a number of extremely qualified physicians because the hospital wanted him (her) but, there was no number available for the spouse. The DOH refused to budge.

Stupid, stupid, stupid.

A former department head at the SJRH once told me the single biggest impediment to quality healthcare in NB was the Provincial Dept of Health. I think they were only partly joking.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

A former department head at the SJRH once told me the single biggest impediment to quality healthcare in NB was the Provincial Dept of Health. I think they were only partly joking.

Sadly, it is not a joke.

And, don't get me started on the dense, opaque, multilayered and inert bureaucracy in the Department of Health.

Oh, for the good old days when hospitals were independently managed and responsive to physician and patient concerns.

This ideal scenario has been absolutely destroyed.

[DyAm00394]

Incoming N.B. premier says tax break, rent cap will be first moves

“New Brunswick's premier designate says two of her first orders of business will be taking the 10 per cent provincial tax off of power bills and putting a cap on rent increases to deliver relief "quite quickly" to people who are struggling to make ends meet.

Speaking to CBC News on Tuesday after her New Brunswick Liberal Party won a decisive electoral victory over the Progressive Conservatives led by Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt said her government will focus on fiscally responsible solutions to tackle issues like cost-of-living challenges, the crisis in education and health-care access.

Holt said health care was the top issue she heard about during the campaign.

The first thing she plans to change on that front is the pay model for primary-care providers.

That won't be a one-day job, but early in 2025 community clinics will open and people will come off of waitlists for family doctors, she said”.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...break-and-rent-cap-first-moves-1.7359657

[TitleRequired]

Polling Performance

Outside of the city level polls; I looked at the trend of the voter intention of the PC and Liberals; province wide. Taking the trendline into account; the voter intention improved for the liberals as the election went on; and solidified by election day with a cliff for the PCs. The trendline pretty much maps out to the efforts put into the campaigns on both parties. The final point is the only poll that matters; the election.

the maximum error of the poll, taking the trend into account is 2.43%; well within the error margin published by the polling firms.

Performance was as good as it gets, if you assume the trendline as I've described in the graph below. The only quibble would be the serious lack of polling data.


Data collected from 338.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The death knell for Canadian health care was the Barer-Stoddart Report implemented federally by the Liberal Chretien administration and all provincial governments in the mid 1990s.

It stated at the time that too many physicians were being produced by Canadian medical schools, and that physicians were not busy enough, and were resorting to ordering unnecessary tests and performing unnecessary procedures in order to bulk up their billings. They recommended an immediate reduction in medical school enrollment which the governments at the time instituted with great glee.

I was practicing at the time, and almost all physicians couldn't believe what they were hearing. Even back then, we knew that a great reckoning was going to happen in the 2020s with the aging of the boomer generation. It seemed to be tremendously bad policy on the part of the governments to cut medical school enrollment when this meant that physicians would be aging out at the same time as when their patients would be needing more and more intensive medical care. We protested loudly, but, the governments liked what they heard from the health care economists more.

The economists said that physicians were nothing more than cost centres. Physicians were expensive. They ordered expensive tests and performed expensive procedures. They also admitted patients to hospitals which was doubly expensive. The best way to limit health care costs was to limit the number of physicians. The government loved hearing this.

And here we are now,

This will not be a quick fix. It will take 20-25 years to get physician resources back to where they should be. Our expectations of government should be limited. There are no quick fixes.

It takes 13-15 years to mint a physician.

Thank you for this. I recall the event, but didn't know the background well enough to find the underlying policy!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I think Ernie Steeves has a fair chance in Moncton Northwest. He might not be the brightest light on the tree, but, he is well liked, well known, has been a long term member of the house, and is a prominent cabinet minister. The Liberals chose a candidate with no profile to run against him. I have no idea who she is.

Tania Sodhi became the first visible-minority elected to the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick and the second person of South-Asian descent elected to a legislature from an Atlantic province.

Pretty unbelievable Sodhi the first person of colour elected to the New Brunswick legislature, in 2024. It's kind of mind blowing actually, but it didn't surprise me at all she won.

This election likely saw more new voters than any election before. With a 100k population growth, but the number of ballots cast remaining virtually unchanged at 376k, along with voter turnout at 66%, it's clear many previous PC voters decided to just not vote this time... probably because they want better healthcare, or they go a surprise property tax assessment last spring. This election probably had the highest number of new 35+ year old voters in a NB election in a very long time. It wasn't a traditional election, because NB has fundamentally changed since 2020, with so many people having moved here.

Our cities are starting to feel a lot more like cities again, and it's something we should want to continue building on. Especially if we ever want to get some more high rises built. Let's not forget the name of this forum. There's no denying Moncton is leading the way on that front. Saint John and Fredericton should want to catch up.