Ottawa's new high-speed rail project isn't life-changing
This "nation-building" megaproject would be a sound idea if the nation began at Quebec City and ended at Toronto.
By Randall Denley, Ottawa Citizen
Published Jan 28, 2026 | 3 minute read
Wow, are we Ottawans lucky or what? Ours will be one of the first two cities to reap the apparently enormous benefits of the federal government’s new high-speed rail project. For once, we’re ahead of Toronto.
The Ottawa to Montreal line will be the first leg of a project that will eventually link Toronto to Quebec City. Ottawans still suffering the effects of our own electric rail service might not want to rejoice prematurely, but if everything goes according to plan, they will eventually be able to get to Montreal in one hour instead of two.
Not to spoil the excitement of something new that goes fast, but that doesn’t seem like a life-changing improvement, certainly not for the cost.
Perhaps it’s just my natural inclination toward sensible government spending, but when I look at the cost of the whole project I immediately see sixty to ninety billion reasons why it’s a bad idea.
The entire rail project cost is estimated at $60 billion to $90 billion. The $30 billion gap between the figures suggests it’s a rough number, at best, but you can safely bet that the end cost will be higher than what the public is told on the day the contract is finally announced.
That’s a lot of money, even by the standards of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. Let’s put that $60-90 billion in context of other big Carney spending plans. For example, the expansion of Canada’s military will cost $81.8 billion over five years. Carney’s plan to build government-subsidized housing will cost $13 billion to start.
Not that the Carney government is entirely unaware of thrift. Its plan to cut, not cap, the public service is expected to reduce operations cost by $39 billion when fully implemented. The reduction might be overdue, but it has to be somewhat disheartening for laid-off public servants to know that a train is seen as more important than their continued services.
The decision to proceed with high-speed rail was one of the stranger decisions by Carney. Sure, the rail concept has been around for a long time. That doesn’t make it a good idea, but rather one no previous government cared to implement.
The current iteration of the plan was a Justin Trudeau project involving planning money only. It could easily have been dropped along with some of the former PM’s other clunkers like the carbon tax.
Instead, the Carney government is including the new rail line as one of its “nation-building” megaprojects. That would be a sound idea if the nation began at Quebec City and ended at Toronto.
Some do see high-speed rail as having benefits. The federal government, naturally, is one. It claims that the rail project will increase “GDP by up to $35 billion and create tens of thousands of high-quality jobs.” Maybe so, but spending the money on something useful would have the same economic impact.
A study by the C.D. Howe Institute think-tank says the high-speed rail line would create between $15 billion and $27 billion in value over 60 years, about one-third of that in time savings and greater reliability for users. It seems a modest return for the dollars spent.
Just to add to potential concerns, the rail project is being run by a new federal Crown corporation called Alto. Being new, it has never built even a kilometre of high-speed rail before, but by definition its first project will be its best ever.
One can easily see why Alto officials and the federal government are eager to direct the public’s attention to the exact route the train will take, while at the same time saying there is little flexibility there because a train that runs at 300 kilometres per hour doesn’t really like curves.
One thing we know for sure, the speedy train will have only seven stops and will run for hundreds of kilometres through lightly-populated areas. That would seem to limit its utility.
Unfortunately, the train of rationality has already left the station.
Randall Denley is an Ottawa journalist and author. Contact him at [email protected]
https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/new-high-speed-rail