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Originally Posted by Acajack
I have mixed views on whether this makes a bright future for French in Montréal significantly more likely (in light of all the other pressures).
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Here are some stats about language use in the Montréal metro area.
I have looked at the 1st official language used by people, which shows in which language community they integrate, in 2011 and 10 years later in 2021. Allophones means people whose mother tongue is neither French nor English.
Montréal metro area (2011 census >> 2021 census):
- Francophones and Allophones integrating in the French-speaking community: 73.1% >> 71.3%
- Allophones integrating in both the French and English-speaking communities: 5.2% >> 5.7%
- natively bilingual French and English speakers who use both languages equally: 0.5% >> 1.0%
- Anglophones and Allophones integrating in the English-speaking community: : 19.5% >> 20.4%
- people who can speak neither French nor English: 1.7% >> 1.6%
The percentage of Anglophones and Allophones integrating in the English-speaking community has definitely gone up. People who are either native French speakers using French as their #1 language, Allophones who integrate solely or equally in the French-speaking community, and native bilinguals who use French and English equally has gone from 78.8% in 2011 to 78.0% in 2021.
The census metro area in 2021 was geographically larger than in 2011, which means that these figures somehow blunt the real decline of French, because the far-away areas integrated in the Montréal metro area since 2011 must be predominantly French speaking. These areas contained 115,000 people in 2011. Without these areas, the number above went from 78.8% in 2011 to perhaps 77.5% in 2021.
To better understand these figures, this is the definition of 1st official language spoken. The 71.3% figure in 2021 above refers to people for whom French is the 1st official language spoken. The 78.0% figure in 2021 above refers to people for whom French is the 1st official language spoken + those for whom "English and French" is the 1st official language spoken. The 20.4% figure refers to those for whom English is the 1st official language spoken.
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First official language spoken is a derived variable. The derivation first takes into account the knowledge of the two official languages, second the mother tongue, and third the language spoken most often at home.
In the derivation, people who report in the knowledge of official languages question that they can conduct a conversation in French only are assigned 'French' as their first official language spoken. People who report that they can carry on a conversation in English only are assigned 'English' as their first official language spoken.
The responses to questions on mother tongue and language spoken most often at home are subsequently used to establish the first official language spoken by people who report speaking both English and French well enough to conduct a conversation, or who report that they cannot speak either of the two official languages. Specifically, the 'French' category includes people (not yet classified) who have a mother tongue of French only or of French and at least one non-official language. The 'English' category includes people (not yet classified) who have a mother tongue of English only or of English and at least one non-official language.
For cases that are not classified according to the preceding criteria, people are assigned to the 'French' category when they speak French only or French and at least one non-official language most often at home. People are assigned to the 'English' category when they speak English only or English and at least one non-official language most often at home.
People are assigned to 'English and French' when they speak both English and French well enough to conduct a conversation and when their mother tongues and languages spoken most often at home are both English and French or neither English nor French.
People are assigned to 'Neither English nor French' when they speak neither English nor French well enough to conduct a conversation and when their mother tongue and language spoken most often at home is a language other than English or French.
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