The US Census Bureau thread

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Docere

I assume most Puerto Ricans going to the mainland are moving mostly to Florida now?

It's the biggest single draw, but not the only one. Tons still move to the Northeast, though it's more focused on other states than New York these days. Pennsylvania in particular has had a big boom, with a lot of the smaller cities in Eastern PA (Redding, Lancaster, Allentown, etc.) now having Latino pluralities or majorities.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Docere

I assume most Puerto Ricans going to the mainland are moving mostly to Florida now?

Yeah, I believe Orlando is now the biggest destination. Much of the sprawl near Disney is very heavily PR.

Though, as mentioned, the Northeast still gets a lot of PR migration. Pretty much all the smaller metros from PA to CT get lots of PR migration, and the NYC PR population appears to be rising again, after decades of decline.

I believe TX also gets a decent share nowadays.

[Docere]

Is PR population growth in eastern PA cities due to direct migration from the island, or are these NYC Puerto Ricans moving there?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Docere

Is PR population growth in eastern PA cities due to direct migration from the island, or are these NYC Puerto Ricans moving there?

A little of both. Dominicans moving out of NYC also play a role.

[creamcityleo79]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Puerto Rico was affected by a major natural disaster. I wouldn't expect decline to continue indefinitely, so it has probably leveled off quite a bit already. San Juan's situation is more analogous to New Orleans' post-Katrina than Detroit's.

My understanding is that this is true and that people may actually be moving back. There were some very troubled years down there at the end of the last decade...hurricanes, almost complete abandonment by the executive branch of the federal government (who actually doles out the $$ allocated), changes in the tax law that (purposefully) disincentivized companies from having locations there (there is/was a large medical supply manufacturing base there), and a series of earthquakes on the south side of the island near Ponce. It took years to recover from Hurricane Maria and some places are just getting back to where they were before it over the last year or so.

It will take time; but, I have hope for the future of Puerto Rico. If they are able to actually have a legally binding vote on their future status, things would get better for them immensely because this would change the status quo. Almost no one there wants to remain a territory with limited rights/privileges/control of their finances; so, it would either be statehood or independence...which is WAY better than the status quo.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by creamcityleo79

Almost no one there wants to remain a territory with limited rights/privileges/control of their finances; so, it would either be statehood or independence...which is WAY better than the status quo.

the problem, of course, is that the island's population itself is so damn evenly divided on their preferred path forward.

in the 2020 referendum, which offered only two choices: statehood or independence, statehood won 52.5% vs. 47.5%.

if that could get closer to a 60-40 split, the mandate to go 100% all in on a statehood movement would be more clear.

[creamcityleo79]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

the problem, of course, is that the island's population itself is so damn evenly divided on their preferred path forward.

in the 2020 referendum, which offered only two choices: statehood or independence, statehood won 52.5% vs. 47.5%.

if that could get closer to a 60-40 split, the mandate to go 100% all in on a statehood movement would be more clear.

True...however, the turnout (as is usually the case because they're all non-binding) was relatively low. I am very certain if they had the right to self-determine, it would be very very high turnout and we would get a more accurate picture of what the electorate actually wants.

Edit: This was actually the sixth non-binding referendum on future status and the one with the highest turnout (2012...78% turnout) was 61% for statehood.

[MAC123]

I would prefer Puerto Rico to become a state, but it's whatever it wants really.
As long as the status quo changes, either of the two options is better.

[badrunner]

It's a no-brainer to make Puerto Rico a state. It would help a lot of people. There is only good that would come from it.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Puerto Rico was affected by a major natural disaster. I wouldn't expect decline to continue indefinitely, so it has probably leveled off quite a bit already. San Juan's situation is more analogous to New Orleans' post-Katrina than Detroit's.

Heavy emigration predates the hurricane as Census estimates were already showing. What change was that natural growth no longer offset emigration in the 2010's. Emigration levels, however, haven't changed that much despite the spike in that year.

And no less important, fertility rates dropped like a rock, from above 2.00 two decades ago to mere 0.92. South Korean levels.

Thinking about it, as 440,000 Puerto Ricans left the island on the 2010's, if we assume half of them headed to New York area, they alone contributed a lot for the healthy New York growth last decade.

[Crawford]

No way did half move to NY. I don't even think half moved to FL.

PR migration to the mainland is somewhat geographically dispersed, as it's mostly professionals. It's more like, say, Indian immigration to the U.S. Most migrants are probably fluent in English, college educated, and living in some random middle class sprawl suburb, more often than not in the Sunbelt.

[creamcityleo79]

Originally Posted by Crawford

No way did half move to NY. I don't even think half moved to FL.

PR migration to the mainland is somewhat geographically dispersed, as it's mostly professionals. It's more like, say, Indian immigration to the U.S. Most migrants are probably fluent in English, college educated, and living in some random middle class sprawl suburb, more often than not in the Sunbelt.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...to-rico-s-residents-migrated-since-maria

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Heavy emigration predates the hurricane as Census estimates were already showing. What change was that natural growth no longer offset emigration in the 2010's. Emigration levels, however, haven't changed that much despite the spike in that year.

And no less important, fertility rates dropped like a rock, from above 2.00 two decades ago to mere 0.92. South Korean levels.

Thinking about it, as 440,000 Puerto Ricans left the island on the 2010's, if we assume half of them headed to New York area, they alone contributed a lot for the healthy New York growth last decade.

There's always been migration from the island to the mainland, but the really big spike was driven by the hurricane, and to a lesser extent the bankruptcy of Puerto Rico. Both were two unprecedented events that occurred within the same decade. But neither event is very analogous to Detroit's situation, despite Detroit also going through a bankruptcy. I wouldn't expect the population to continue declining like we've seen recently.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There's always been migration from the island to the mainland, but the really big spike was driven by the hurricane, and to a lesser extent the bankruptcy of Puerto Rico. Both were two unprecedented events that occurred within the same decade. But neither event is very analogous to Detroit's situation, despite Detroit also going through a bankruptcy. I wouldn't expect the population to continue declining like we've seen recently.

I made the math for the 2000's, taking into account the positive natural growth they had: about 300,000 Puerto Ricans migrated to the US. Hurricane surely had an impact, but based on the 2000's, it was only marginal, specially as you remembered, it was coupled with massive economic problems.

And for the 2020's, even if their migration was reduced to historical lowest (and there's no indication it will as problems are still present as much as incentives to move to the US), they will have 200,000 negative natural growth this decade.

[edale]

Originally Posted by subterranean

I know, right? Dude takes every opportunity he can to take pot shots at anything and everything Michigan. It’s like an obsession. Hell, I live in a very beautiful place and I frequently find myself missing summers in northwest Michigan. I go back any chance I get.

Northwest Michigan, generally, is a very beautiful place. But Traverse City isn't an especially beautiful town-- in fact, I'd say it's one of the uglier towns in that region. Petoskey, Harbor Springs, Charlevoix, etc. are all much prettier.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by edale

Traverse City isn't an especially beautiful town-- in fact, I'd say it's one of the uglier towns in that region. .

it's nothing magical or anyting, but front street is a cute and quaint enough place for most people.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.7640949,...srjmyNiDmap-M96w4OYBw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192


and it has a pretty nice public beach adjacent to the town center.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.7657558,...i-0-ya353.88275-ro-0-fo100!7i4000!8i2000



there may be even prettier small towns up that way, but i wouldn't exactly call TC "ugly".

[edale]

Ok, well it also has plenty of stuff like this. I recall Traverse City feeling much more auto-centric and downscale compared to the other towns I mentioned. It's also substantially larger, so I guess that's somewhat expected.

The last time I was in Northern Michigan (it's been way too long), I remember Traverse City being my least favorite town of the ones we visited. Charlevoix was my favorite, I think.

[Crawford]

TC is fine. But it's extremely hyped, which is kinda weird. It doesn't have good beaches, or much in or around town. In the summer it's a good base for vineyards, but not much else.

There are much prettier towns Up North that are much more under the radar. Manistee is much nicer. Charlevoix, Harbor Springs and Petoskey much more scenic.

And the Sunrise side of Northern MI is basically rotting away, even though there are very pretty parts. Cheboygan has a nicer setting than TC but no one cares about Cheboygan. Sugar-sand beaches, dunes right outside town, good bones on the main street. Alpena used to be a more substantial city than TC and has better bones and a shipfaring history. No one cares.

And the UP has epic population decline, but there are beaches in the UP two hours from TC that are almost unbelievably wild. The beaches near TC are a joke.

TC is like the Nashville of Northern MI. Nothing particularly wrong with it, but the level of hype is borderline ridiculous.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

TC is fine. But it's extremely hyped, which is kinda weird.

i'm guessing that's more of a michigan thing.

from my chicago perspective, traverse city is over a 5 hour drive away (and add an hour to get around the bottom of the lake on summer weekends when everyone and their brother is trying to get over to michigan), which puts it just outside the reasonable driving range for weekend getaways.

some people from here definitely go all the way up to the traverse city area for longer stays, but it's not particularly hyped. i hear a lot more hype about the lake michigan beach towns that are much closer to chicago (new buffalo, st. joe's, south haven, saugatuck, grand haven), which makes sense considering that all of them are only a 1 -3 hour drive from chicago, and right in the wheelhouse distance-wise for weekend getaways.

[38 Geary]

I've heard the Michigan shoreline area known as the Riviera of the Midwest.