The US Census Bureau thread

[subterranean]

And this just popped up in my feed from NOMI:

Zero Homes To Rent In The County: Families Trapped In A Desperate Long-Term Rental Crisis
https://www.leelanauticker.com/news/zero...hYtnPaxokyuXR2TwHX2SAwIRVKj8kdGehXWw73MI

The article also describes the people buying property in Leelanau County as a ‘tsunami’. Granted it will never be Florida or Texas growth, but it’s a very attractive place to live at least part time out of the year.

[Yuri]

As it's under US Census Bureau:

Puerto Rico, future ghost island?

Puerto Rico is one of the most dramatic stories of a sudden population decline, with a powerful combo of ultra low fertility rates and massive emigration:

--------- Population ---- Births ---- Deaths --- Children/Women

1980 --- 3,196,520 ----- 73,060 ----- 20,486 ----- 2.75

1990 --- 3,522,037 ----- 66,565 ----- 26,138 ----- 2.35

2000 --- 3,808,610 ----- 59,460 ----- 28,550 ----- 1.93

2010 --- 3,725,789 ----- 42,153 ----- 29,153 ----- 1.62

2020 --- 3,285,874 ----- 18,933 ----- 31,679 ----- 0.92

Number of births in 2020 is just above 1/4 of the one back in 1990, a bigger collapse than the one registered in South Korea, the only country in the world with even a lower rate than Puerto Rico.

Given Puerto Ricans can reallocate to the US at any time, with well established communities there, their demographic future is very grim. A situation similar to the one faced by Eastern European countries, but with a much lower TFR, making the population collapse much faster.

[Crawford]

Why would any working person live in Puerto Rico? For retirement, maybe, but despite the beauty and weather, it's more or less a developing world state within the U.S. There isn't a single hospital, or university, or major settlement, at "normal" first world standards.

I'm amazed more people don't go to the mainland. But PRs have immense pride in their island, so there's that.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why would any working person live in Puerto Rico? For retirement, maybe, but despite the beauty and weather, it's more or less a developing world state within the U.S. There isn't a single hospital, or university, or major settlement, at "normal" first world standards.

I'm amazed more people don't go to the mainland. But PRs have immense pride in their island, so there's that.

I don't know much about it, but it seems they don't have a real economy. Massive remittances and federal help. And they're now on a very powerful vicious circle as the more people leave there, less functional it becomes for people left behind.

I don't find Central American cities attractive at all, even the wealthier ones like San Jose or San Juan. They lack some grandeur founded easier on Mexican or South American cities.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why would any working person live in Puerto Rico? For retirement, maybe, but despite the beauty and weather, it's more or less a developing world state within the U.S. There isn't a single hospital, or university, or major settlement, at "normal" first world standards.

I'm amazed more people don't go to the mainland. But PRs have immense pride in their island, so there's that.

But then they'd have to deal with the 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 of living on the mainland.

As an aside, I've said it on these forums here many times before, but I really wish Puerto Rico would either become a full-fledged state of the US, or an independent nation. It's like 🞵🞵🞵🞵 or get off the pot already. They're really screwed under the current status they're in.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why would any working person live in Puerto Rico? For retirement, maybe, but despite the beauty and weather, it's more or less a developing world state within the U.S. There isn't a single hospital, or university, or major settlement, at "normal" first world standards.

I'm amazed more people don't go to the mainland. But PRs have immense pride in their island, so there's that.

While the issues of Puerto Rico are tragic, it's really not that much of an outlier in the Caribbean. Every country and territory is slow growth or no growth outside of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Outmigration to areas with more opportunities is just too attractive to make up for any local natural population growth.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why would any working person live in Puerto Rico? For retirement, maybe, but despite the beauty and weather, it's more or less a developing world state within the U.S. There isn't a single hospital, or university, or major settlement, at "normal" first world standards.

I'm amazed more people don't go to the mainland. But PRs have immense pride in their island, so there's that.

If I was seriously considering 100% remote work, I would consider Puerto Rico. It has much better infrastructure than most places in the Caribbean, and it's in the eastern time zone. I don't think there is much tax savings, but the cost of living is much lower than Florida.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

While the issues of Puerto Rico are tragic, it's really not that much of an outlier in the Caribbean. Every country and territory is slow growth or no growth outside of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Outmigration to areas with more opportunities is just too attractive to make up for any local natural population growth.

Right, but those places require the expensive, multiyear immigration process, and this is assuming you qualify via lottery, immediate family or skills.

In PR, all you need are AA or JetBlue tickets to NY or Miami (which are cheap).

PR is a lot wealthier and more stable than those places, though. It's probably at least around Northern Mexico level of development. PR hasn't been dirt poor since the 1950's.

[Yuri]

I wonder how San Juan will look like in few years. With such Detroit-like population fall, I imagine there will be lots of unoccupied houses and apartments all over the metro area.

Between 2010-2020 100% of population fall (440k) was due emigration, as natural growth only went negative in 2016. For 2020-2030, negative natural growth alone will be somewhere around 200k or more. Puerto Rico might be just around 2.7 million people in 2030, the number that was registered on the 1970 Census.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I wonder how San Juan will look like in few years. With such Detroit-like population fall, I imagine there will be lots of unoccupied houses and apartments all over the metro area.

do we know if the population decrease is evenly distributed across the island?

it could be that the bulk of the loss is coming from smaller towns and outlying areas while san jaun stays relatively stable?

i don't know if that's the case, just asking the question.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right, but those places require the expensive, multiyear immigration process, and this is assuming you qualify via lottery, immediate family or skills.

In PR, all you need are AA or JetBlue tickets to NY or Miami (which are cheap).

PR is a lot wealthier and more stable than those places, though. It's probably at least around Northern Mexico level of development. PR hasn't been dirt poor since the 1950's.

Not really sure that's true? Lots of the smaller islands are still dependencies of the UK/France/the Netherlands, and have free migration to Europe (and are pretty depopulated as a result).

And of course any Cuban who can reach the U.S. can just claim asylum.

[Crawford]

Historically, immigration from PR was from rural villages, which were devastated mid-century. Migrants were generally very poor and uneducated.

In more recent decades, however, immigration has been more urban/educated/white collar. So I'd guess that PR cities will bear some losses.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

do we know if the population decrease is evenly distributed across the island?

it could be that the bulk of the loss is coming from smaller towns and outlying areas while san jaun stays relatively stable?

i don't know if it that's the case, just asking the question.

Steely, I put all on Excel. San Juan, going by any definition, broader or more strict, it's falling on the same level of the PR, which is not surprising as the MSA alone is about 2/3 of island's population. For more details: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/puertorico/

We are very used to Detroit urban prairies or the collapsing houses. It will look different in a much denser urban environment.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Not really sure that's true? Lots of the smaller islands are still dependencies of the UK/France/the Netherlands, and have free migration to Europe (and are pretty depopulated as a result).

I mean, I'm sure that PR is part of the U.S., and Haiti/DR aren't, so there's no comparison in terms of relative ease of accessing the mainland. If Haiti or DR had PRs free access to the mainland, those countries would probably be nearly empty.

A lot of Dominicans and Haitians in the U.S. are here illegally, so there are definitely migrants taking a major risk.

Cuba is pretty depopulated, especially of anyone of European descent, educated or middle class. In many ways, Cuba is in Miami, and the legacy state is a weird backwater.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

do we know if the population decrease is evenly distributed across the island?

it could be that the bulk of the loss is coming from smaller towns and outlying areas while san jaun stays relatively stable?

i don't know if that's the case, just asking the question.

I can't find a good map which shows the changes well. The Census information here has a stupid cutoff of 5%, which means that all you can really see is three municipalities in the central mountains (and Culebra Island) shrunk less than the rest of the island.

Biggest losses seem to be scattered around everywhere, though there are a lot on the south coast near Ponce.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

We are very used to Detroit urban prairies or the collapsing houses. It will look different in a much denser urban environment.

It would take a while before you saw visible, widespread abandonment. Detroit didn't really start to feel abandoned in a few parts until the 1980's, and it wasn't really epic abandonment until well into the 1990's. So it wasn't until basically half the population left.

I'm in my early 40's, and I can still remember when Detroit abandonment was pretty minimal. The city was a mess, but empty buildings and vacant lots weren't everywhere. The bad areas were still pretty active and lively even in the early-mid 90's.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Yeah, MI and WI are lucky to have their attractive and "wild" wooded areas "up north".

contrast them with IL which suffered from the double whammy of the pandemic fueled loss in Chicagoland combined with the fact that no one wants to live in the other 50,000 sq. miles in the state, which essentially constitute one big giant seeming infinite cornfield.

Yeah, it's hard not to think of Illinois as basically Chicago + a bunch of cornfields.

Chicago almost ended up in Wisconsin. An interesting historical what if.

https://www.wpr.org/chicago-wisconsin-how-windy-city-almost-ended-badger-state

[eschaton]

Old San Juan is really, really nice. Like...probably the nicest urban neighborhood in the entire Caribbean nice. I could see it becoming something like the French Quarter of NOLA.

The rest of San Juan though? Nope. It's not the worst urban fabric in the world, but the housing stock is nothing special, and I can't see Anglos putting up with the language issues to live there.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Steely, I put all on Excel. San Juan, going by any definition, broader or more strict, it's falling on the same level of the PR, which is not surprising as the MSA alone is about 2/3 of island's population. For more details: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/puertorico/

We are very used to Detroit urban prairies or the collapsing houses. It will look different in a much denser urban environment.

Puerto Rico was affected by a major natural disaster. I wouldn't expect decline to continue indefinitely, so it has probably leveled off quite a bit already. San Juan's situation is more analogous to New Orleans' post-Katrina than Detroit's.

[Docere]

I assume most Puerto Ricans going to the mainland are moving mostly to Florida now?