Federal Government & Politics | Election 2021 FORUM POLL

[dleung]

Eww, the WhitePeePeeC has over twice the popular vote as the Greens (beating the Greens in every province except BC). Faith in humanity not restored

Ranked ballots would serve NDP well. Pretty sure they were the 2nd choice (or true 1st choice) for most Liberals, Greens, Western Canadians, and - minus the turban - maybe even some Bloc/PPC votes

They mean well, but might be too ideological and not savvy enough to deliver like the Libs, which btw doesn't get enough credit for the progress re FN drinking water

[SkeggsEggs]

Originally Posted by lio45

Was listening to the CBC. Megan Leslie was soooo wrong when saying Layton "had a slow buildup" so we should be letting Singh continue to work. Layton had an instant boom in 2011, the exact opposite of a slow buildup.

First election: 15.68%

Second election: 17.48%

Third election: 18.18%

Fourth election: 30.63%

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

All of you must hate democracy or something. Why are elections only useful if they produce a change in government?

So if for example Joe Biden decided to cause a Presidential election this fall, just to make sure the American people still want him to be President, you wouldn't think it a waste of time and money?

You "love democracy" so you think a completely unnecessary November 2021 Rematch of Trump v. Biden would be a good thing? Can't go wrong bringing voters to the booths as often as possible, that's your view?

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by lio45

Was listening to the CBC. Megan Leslie was soooo wrong when saying Layton "had a slow buildup" so we should be letting Singh continue to work. Layton had an instant boom in 2011, the exact opposite of a slow buildup.

That's not even remotely close to being true.

Edit: Skeggs beat me to it.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by SkeggsEggs

First election: 15.68%

Second election: 17.48%

Third election: 18.18%

Fourth election: 30.63%

First election: thirty-something seats in Anglo Canada, virtually no Quebec presence;

Second election: thirty-something seats in Anglo Canada, virtually no Quebec presence;

Third election: thirty-something seats in Anglo Canada, virtually no Quebec presence;

Fourth election: unpredictable instant Quebec megaboom, electoral landslide in Quebec; this brand-new "Orange Bloc Québécois" becomes the official opposition, with more MPs than the Liberals or the entirety of the NDP's Anglo-Canada caucus.

That's definitely not a slow buildup at all, it's an instant boom. (Which did not last, BTW.)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

That's not even remotely close to being true.

Edit: Skeggs beat me to it.

You guys are wrong: it's completely incorrect to think that Layton's efforts in the early and mid 2000s were bound to produce something like the 2011 oddity.

It's not "hard work pays off". It's "you won the lottery in 2011".

[dleung]

2011 was Lio's least-favorite year, other than Biden 2020

[HomeInMyShoes]

Originally Posted by lio45

Was listening to the CBC. Megan Leslie was soooo wrong when saying Layton "had a slow buildup" so we should be letting Singh continue to work. Layton had an instant boom in 2011, the exact opposite of a slow buildup.

Wasn't that his fourth election as leader though?

2004, 2006, 2008, 2011? Seat counts: 19, 29, 37, 103. Layton somehow in that 2011 election won a lot of seats because Quebec decided to go anything but Bloc and decided they liked Layton. I remember some of those winning candidates. 59 seats in Quebec. True, he did better in Toronto and Ontario, but most of that vote was Quebec.

That instant boom was mostly fueled by a Quebec reactionary vote. The NDP did do quite well in Ontario with 22 seats and even about ten in Toronto itself, but I wouldn't call it an instant boom.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SkeggsEggs

First election: 15.68%

Second election: 17.48%

Third election: 18.18%

Fourth election: 30.63%

Ouf. How much of that 12-point jump from the 3rd to the 4th is due to the 2011 election in Quebec, where the NDP went from 12% of the vote (in the previous election) to 43% of the vote?

Give the NDP its regular score in Quebec (around 10% of the vote) and re-do the numbers.

[jigglysquishy]

2011 was an odd election and I don't think it'll be repeated.

You had the Bloc collapse. That was by far their worst election since becoming a party.

The Liberal collapse under their least popular leader since Confederation. Ignatieff was very unpopular in the common electorate.

Harper being at his most popular. Canada successfully weathered the Great Recession. Oil and potash were booming.

Jack Layton had the perfect storm. I also think him having a cane on the campaign trail played really really well. He looked like a caring, well spoked, and intelligent grandfather.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

You guys are wrong: it's completely incorrect to think that Layton's efforts in the early and mid 2000s were bound to produce something like the 2011 oddity.

It's not "hard work pays off". It's "you won the lottery in 2011".

Yes, here are John Q. Public's personal financials for the past five years.

2016: 65,000 dollars in income
2017: 68,000 dollars in income
2018: 69,000 dollars in income
2019: 1,070,000 dollars in income
2021: 72,000 dollars in income

Did John work super hard in 2019 or did he simply win the lottery?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

2011 was an odd election and I don't think it'll be repeated.

You had the Bloc collapse. That was by far their worst election since becoming a party.

The Liberal collapse under their least popular leader since Confederation. Ignatieff was very unpopular in the common electorate.

Harper being at his most popular. Canada successfully weathered the Great Recession. Oil and potash were booming.

Jack Layton had the perfect storm. I also think him having a cane on the campaign trail played really really well. He looked like a caring, well spoked, and intelligent grandfather.

Exactly. Layton benefitted from a unique alignment of factors.

The NDP always kicked around the current number of seats and that was before the Green Party and even pre-Bloc. Even the Liberals have moved closer to NDP positions under Trudeau.

A the same time the old NDP base of union-job blue collar voters has drastically shrunk with the disappearance of those kind of jobs.

[jigglysquishy]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Exactly. Layton benefitted from a unique alignment of factors.

The NDP always kicked around the current number of seats and that was before the Green Party and even pre-Bloc. Even the Liberals have moved closer to NDP positions under Trudeau.

A the same time the old NDP base of union-job blue collar voters has drastically shrunk with the disappearance of those kind of jobs.

The NDP certainly has some takeaway messages from this election.

In 2006, the NDP won 12 seats in Ontario. In 2008, the NDP won 17 seats in Ontario. In 2011, the NDP won 22 seats in Ontario. In 2015, the NDP won 8 seats in Ontario.

To only win 5 seats in 2021 cannot be taken as a positive. Yes, 2011 was an anomaly. But if they repeated their 2008 success in Ontario, the 2021 election would have returned a respectable 37 seats instead of a disappointing 25.

The NDP needs to bring urban Ontario back into the fold. There are 121 seats in the province and only bringing in 5 NDP MPs is simply not good enough.

[JHikka]

Damn, I leave for a few hours and we're back on the 'Mulcair good, Singh bad' conversation again. I wonder why that is.

Originally Posted by lio45

Was listening to the CBC. Megan Leslie was soooo wrong when saying Layton "had a slow buildup" so we should be letting Singh continue to work. Layton had an instant boom in 2011, the exact opposite of a slow buildup.

Layton wasn't leader for the three elections prior to 2011?

Singh's been doing well as NDP leader, roughly their average if not slightly above, not counting the maelstrom of 2011 or Mulcair's fumbling in 2015. Singh aligns pretty well with Layton's numbers and just needs one fluke election like 2011 to swing more seats than they would otherwise be expected to win. They were close in a few ridings in this election (some are still TBD, including Halifax), but they'll come around. I don't think we should reasonably expect 60-100 seats for the NDP every election.

[SkeggsEggs]

Originally Posted by lio45

You guys are wrong: it's completely incorrect to think that Layton's efforts in the early and mid 2000s were bound to produce something like the 2011 oddity.

It's not "hard work pays off". It's "you won the lottery in 2011".

Good thing I never said that at all

Yes 2011 was a perfect storm, but if there were a fresh faced NDP leader and not an experienced one the perfect storm may not have materialized. If not for the work over the previous three elections would it have been possible? These things are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand caused an instant boom, but it wouldn't have necessarily led to the outcome it did if not for the slow buildup in Europe that had been occurring long before hand.


The larger point is that just because Singh is not the official opposition or PM after two elections does not mean that the NDP will want to turf him. Since you never know what can happen. Plus, even if the NDP does not pass 20% they are still successfully keeping leftist policy and ideas in the public's mind and causing the Liberals to shift to the left if they want to beat the CPC.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by lio45

So if for example Joe Biden decided to cause a Presidential election this fall, just to make sure the American people still want him to be President, you wouldn't think it a waste of time and money?

You "love democracy" so you think a completely unnecessary November 2021 Rematch of Trump v. Biden would be a good thing? Can't go wrong bringing voters to the booths as often as possible, that's your view?

Everyone loves minority parliaments for the spirit of compromise that they bring about, but no one seems to love the short terms that they inevitably result in.

Face it, if the scales were tipped the other way and the opposition felt like it could take advantage of the situation, it would have triggered an election. I'm guessing you probably would have been much more understanding in that case. When was the last time a minority government made it for a full four years in this country?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Singh's been doing well as NDP leader, roughly their average if not slightly above, not counting the maelstrom of 2011 or Mulcair's fumbling in 2015. Singh aligns pretty well with Layton's numbers and just needs one fluke election like 2011 to swing more seats than they would otherwise be expected to win. They were close in a few ridings in this election (some are still TBD, including Halifax), but they'll come around. I don't think we should reasonably expect 60-100 seats for the NDP every election.

By "fluke election" he basically needs another Ignatieff, i.e. an unpopular Liberal leader who gets pummeled during the campaign.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by esquire

By "fluke election" he basically needs another Ignatieff, i.e. an unpopular Liberal leader who gets pummeled during the campaign.

Remind me, what that the Rae vs Ignatieff LPC leadership race?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by esquire

By "fluke election" he basically needs another Ignatieff, i.e. an unpopular Liberal leader who gets pummeled during the campaign.

Do we envision that happening any time soon? Sure feels like the Liberal crop of potential leaders is stronger than, say, the Conservative crop of potential leaders.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Do we envision that happening any time soon? Sure feels like the Liberal crop of potential leaders is stronger than, say, the Conservative crop of potential leaders.

I would agree with that.

The Liberal party seemed kind of deflated after it lost. The expectations placed on Paul Martin were so vast that it was hard to believe his government flamed out after just a couple of years. There weren't really up and comers waiting in the wings... the leadership races felt like choosing the least-worst option as compared to someone truly impressive.

Although I suppose that in some respects, you could probably say the same thing about the Conservative Party now, including their most recent leadership.