Federal Government & Politics | Election 2021 FORUM POLL

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

In a country that is heavily urbanized, you don't really need to cross that divide if you want to win an election. Rather than trying to win off of a diminishing rural base, the conservative need to start courting urban voters. If they can secure those they can still work on favourable rural policy (economically at least) that isn't off-putting to their new urban base.

It's always been strange to me that the CPC doesn't get this. Suburbanites are natural moderate conservatives.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah I'm sooooo tired of the "unnecessary election" and "$600M!1!1!" lines.

People paying attention to the CPC attack ads really telling on themselves.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Chong probably would have won this election.

Impossible to say. Who knows how the prairies react to someone like Chong at the helm.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Parties can make policy and do carve outs just fine. They refuse to either because it is politically convenient or the base won't allow it. This particularly a problem for the CPC, because their rural base isn't enough to win government. They'll have to get over themselves at some point if they want to win beyond just for a term or two when the Liberals screw up.

Yep.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Disappointed that Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed is leading now in Vancouver-Granville by 130 votes over the NDP candidate. The serial house flipper is not deserving of a win. I guess there's a small hope the mail-in ballots might change it, though I suspect Liberal voters would be more likely to mail in than NDP ones.

Could go either way with that little of a margin. Both of the CPC leads and the BQ lead currently are both by very little and within margin of VBM. I still can't get over Alice Wong trailing in Richmond.

[thurmas]

Conservatives since Harper left have been declining rapidly in the 10 biggest cities. Last night virtually shut out in Winnipeg, GTA, GMA,GVA and Ottawa and losses in Edmonton and Calgary. The changing demographics of Canada are leaving the Tories in the dust. I have to admit it but they really need Doug Fords and Patrick Brown's help to attract new canadian voters to the party.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Conservatives since Harper left have been declining rapidly in the 10 biggest cities. Last night virtually shut out in Winnipeg, GTA, GMA,GVA and Ottawa and losses in Edmonton and Calgary. The changing demographics of Canada are leaving the Tories in the dust. I have to admit it but they really need Doug Fords and Patrick Brown's help to attract new canadian voters to the party.

It's sad how much this man's whiny voice continues to define the party:

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by JHikka

People paying attention to the CPC attack ads really telling on themselves.


Impossible to say. Who knows how the prairies react to someone like Chong at the helm.


Yep.


Could go either way with that little of a margin. Both of the CPC leads and the BQ lead currently are both by very little and within margin of VBM. I still can't get over Alice Wong trailing in Richmond.

Last I saw there were two Bloc leads that were razor-thin.

Brome-Missisquoi by 99 votes and Trois-Rivières by 48 votes.

[Acajack]

In Trois-Rivières, the 3rd place guy is only about 850 votes behind the leader.

If he gets really lucky with the mail-in vote he could actually overtake the 2nd and 1st place candidates and win.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

It's sad how much this man's whiny voice continues to define the party:

The Conservatives are suffering as a result of the total collapse of the Progressive Conservatives being replaced by the Reform party. This pushed the Red Tories such as myself to the Liberals and it will be hard time for me to return.

In Ontario, the Ford Conservatives have had to move to the centre (they are still PCs) and are willing to build transit lines to serve urban voters instead of exurban highways of the Harris Conservative era. Dealing with urban issues is the only way to attract urban and suburban Toronto voters and from other major cities.

The federal Conservatives have to throw off the Reform mantra to get the urban Canadian vote. Perhaps they will lose a few rural western seats to something like the PPC or such but it is necessary to get some urban/ inner suburban seats across the country.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Conservatives since Harper left have been declining rapidly in the 10 biggest cities. Last night virtually shut out in Winnipeg, GTA, GMA,GVA and Ottawa and losses in Edmonton and Calgary.

Well put. Everyone loves to bring up Toronto. But the CPC lost seats or got shut out in urban areas across the country. The GTA just makes that really obvious because it's the biggest metro. Instead of trying to learn how to campaign in Toronto, they need to learn how to win over urban and suburban areas in general. They'll win seats in the GTA as a byproduct of that effort. Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax and Calgary may all have different specific needs. But they have lots of similar challenges that voters care about like housing costs, childcare, transit, etc.

Originally Posted by thurmas

The changing demographics of Canada are leaving the Tories in the dust. I have to admit it but they really need Doug Fords and Patrick Brown's help to attract new canadian voters to the party.

It's only been 6 years since Harper lost. The country's demographics haven't changed that much.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Well put. Everyone loves to bring up Toronto. But the CPC lost seats or got shut out in urban areas across the country. The GTA just makes that really obvious because it's the biggest metro. Instead of trying to learn how to campaign in Toronto, they need to learn how to win over urban and suburban areas in general. They'll win seats in the GTA as a byproduct of that effort. Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax and Calgary may all have different specific needs. But they have lots of similar challenges that voters care about like housing costs, childcare, transit, etc.
.

The Conservatives are in 4th place in Montreal with 11%, behind the NDP (12%), Bloc (30%) and Liberals (41%).

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by TownGuy

My FB feed is just chock-full of distraught Conservative voters wondering how they didn't win. "Nobody seemed to even like the Liberals, how did this happen?" and so on. These people have been stuck in their own echo chamber, posting daily childish and factually incorrect memes about JT and the Liberals. Liberal supporters seem to just sit back and not say anything. I was pretty apathetic this election, but this part has been satisfying to see.

Seems pretty obvious. You rarely see the winning team complain about the ref. Same thing. Imagine the wailing you'd hear if the Conservatives won

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Seems pretty obvious. You rarely see the winning team complain about the ref. Same thing. Imagine the wailing you'd hear if the Conservatives won

I think that referred to the echo chamber the conservative voters were living in prior to the election rather than the post election reactions. The liberal supporters didn't know they'd be on the "winning team" when they were sitting back and not responding to the "childish and factually incorrect memes".

[svlt]

Maybe it's because they were the incumbent but the salty attack ads pre-election, and even some of the cheering before the game was called when they were leading the polls midway through the campaign was a real turn off. There were a couple of apathetic LPC voters in safe ridings I know of that went out anyway just to stick it to these guys. And of course when the wife insulting rock hurling PPC guys came out you just know things really turned a corner there.

This is actually nothing O'Toole himself did, he played it safe and fair the whole campaign IMO. Nor even most of the CPC MPs themselves. If anything they should be blaming the National Post and the Sun who were just preaching to the choir but some middle of the ground or slightly left leaning voters I might surmise were not impressed with the incessant daily op-eds devoid of facts and went to the polls. Then pile on Mad Max and Jason Kenney.

Really, what did they have to work with against JT with all that new baggage? Unearth the same blackface picture and have JWR publish a book about the exact same issue that both couldn't do anything to JT in 2019?

[ssiguy]

I am thrilled about my local riding.

My riding of Cloverdale-Langley tossed out the incumbent Tory who was an anti-choice, pro-conversion therapy religious nutcase.

I voted Liberal but I'm glad Trudeau was kept to a minority as it was the slap in the face he richly deserved for calling this election in the first place.

[svlt]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In Trois-Rivières, the 3rd place guy is only about 850 votes behind the leader.

If he gets really lucky with the mail-in vote he could actually overtake the 2nd and 1st place candidates and win.

850 is a big, big gap, that's rare to get closed out IMO. If that's still in play they shouldn't have called it for BQ in Berthier-Maskinongé against Ruth Ellen Brosseau yet since she's down by just ~900 votes.

Not a professional pollster but I can see the following being very actively in play still (anything under 300 vote difference):

Brome-Missisquoi (99 vote lead for BQ, could flip to L)

Trois-Rivières (48 vote lead for BQ, could flip to C)

Kitchener-Conestoga (174 lead for L, could flip to C)

Sault Ste. Marie (41 vote lead for L, could flip to C)

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley (109 lead for C, could flip to L)

Edmonton Centre (136 lead for L, could flip to C)

Vancouver Granville (230 lead for L, could flip to N)


We are looking at to me a house of commons that could be anything from

L: 154 – 160
C: 118 – 123
BQ: 32 - 34
N: 25 – 26

Might have missed some there but I think that’s where things stand.

In some odd way I think how it shakes out still could have some significance to some of the leaders. If L actually gained a few seats or lost none, it shows Trudeau is still a relatively safe play for the party and they might leave it more to him to resign than to push him out. If C did not retreat from 2019 at all or even had a slight gain, it might show to CPC that O'Toole is also a fine choice to continue as leader. Conversely if we are looking at 154 for the L or 118 for the C the story might look very slightly different for these leaders.

BQ will stay put as is. Singh I think doesn't really have much of a difference if he picked up one vs picking up two extra seats.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's only been 6 years since Harper lost. The country's demographics haven't changed that much.

This is pure speculation on my part, but what has changed since Harper won a majority is the age demographics.

A person’s prime “conservative” years, particularly in an urban area, are 40-60: earnings are at a lifetime peak, crime may be a worry, you don’t really benefit from government programs. Under 40 you’re not worrying too much about taxes or crime, but are concerned about government programs. Over 60 you are looking for government money again.

When Harper won a majority, there was a demographic bulge from 45-55.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2011/

This year that same age bracket is a trough between two bulges.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2021/

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by svlt

Maybe it's because they were the incumbent but the salty attack ads pre-election, and even some of the cheering before the game was called when they were leading the polls midway through the campaign was a real turn off. There were a couple of apathetic LPC voters in safe ridings I know of that went out anyway just to stick it to these guys. And of course when the wife insulting rock hurling PPC guys came out you just know things really turned a corner there.

This is actually nothing O'Toole himself did, he played it safe and fair the whole campaign IMO. Nor even most of the CPC MPs themselves. If anything they should be blaming the National Post and the Sun who were just preaching to the choir but some middle of the ground or slightly left leaning voters I might surmise were not impressed with the incessant daily op-eds devoid of facts and went to the polls. Then pile on Mad Max and Jason Kenney.

Really, what did they have to work with against JT with all that new baggage? Unearth the same blackface picture and have JWR publish a book about the exact same issue that both couldn't do anything to JT in 2019?

Did anybody ever expect something like that to stick? We have to give credit to the Canadian electorate that they understood that many of us have gone through a stage in our lives when we demonstrated immature behaviour.

What got the Liberals elected in 2015 was a positive vision of Canada for the future. Did we really get this from the Conservatives in 2021? I say no. They were all over the place without a a real vision of what Canadians want. The Liberals provided that in 2015 but despite their failure to follow through on many items like election reform, the Conservatives could not fully take advantage of this in two elections. Basically, their view was the same on that point. The indigenous issue could not stick because it was clear that the Liberals were making real progress. The pandemic was not going to work in the Conservative favour either, because Canadians were generally satisfied with the Liberal approach.

[ssiguy]

My take on the leaders:

First, the most obvious is Paul is gone and good riddance. May still is viewed as the Party's de-facto leader but she is yesterday's news. The Green win for Morrise in Kitchener Centre is a very big deal as it gives the Greens much needed recognition in Ontario. The leadership is his for the taking assuming he wants it.

Second, Trudeau did OK and a win is a win.

Third, O'Toole ran a surprisingly good campaign and has deserved his right to take the party into the next election. He was hurt by the PPC whom half of which may have been traditional Tory supporters. He was bumped by the anti-vaxxer support that went PPC but that is an issue he {hopefully} will not have to worry about next time.

Fourth, Singh and as far as I am concerned, he has to go. Of the major party leaders he did the worse. He has been at the helm for 2 elections and has blown both of them. Despite him being relatively well liked he simply didn't offer a valid alternative to Trudeau. He also didn't benefit from the implosion of the Greens like many thought he would. Singh's record speaks for itself. The Party has not done well under his leadership. He alone is responsible for lowest seat count since 2004 and at that time there were only 318 seats at play. Now he has increased that lousy performance by a paltry 1 seat. Under his 2 kicks at the can he has brought his party down to 4th place standing. I admit my bias as I have never liked the guy and I don't think he is capable of running a newsstand little alone a G7 country but that doesn't change the fact that the NDP has done poorly under his tenure.

[jigglysquishy]

The NDP is often looked upon as an urban party and certainly styles themselves as the party of urban and diverse politics.

They are looking at 1 seat in greater Montreal and Toronto combined. Singh absolutely has to do better at convincing voters in our two biggest cities that he and not Trudeau is their progressive voice.

Looking at the NDP seats in the Big Six cities.

Toronto: Zero
Montreal: One
Vancouver: Five
Calgary: Zero
Edmonton: Two
Ottawa: Zero
Total: Eight

Shutout in three of our six largest cities. Metro Vancouver is their only urban success story. 14 of the 25 seats are in BC. 20 of the 25 are in Western Canada.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

The NDP is often looked upon as an urban party and certainly styles themselves as the party of urban and diverse politics.

They are looking at 1 seat in greater Montreal and Toronto combined. Singh absolutely has to do better at convincing voters in our two biggest cities that he and not Trudeau is their progressive voice.

Looking at the NDP seats in the Big Six cities.

Toronto: Zero
Montreal: One
Vancouver: Five
Calgary: Zero
Edmonton: Two
Ottawa: Zero
Total: Eight


Shutout in three of our six largest cities. Metro Vancouver is their only urban success story. 14 of the 25 seats are in BC. 20 of the 25 are in Western Canada.

Timmins: One

I can also say that the NDP has also been less popular lately at the federal level in their strongholds outside major population centres. I think that the problem with Singh is that he has been too woke which doesn't seem to win seats in both urban and rural areas. (or well, anywhere)

Singh is well liked as a person and definitely treats everybody well but he just doesn't relate in a way that will make lots of people vote NDP. At least not up to now. I didn't vote NDP this time because their platform didn't focus enough on the pandemic. They seemed more interested in pushing their views rather than actually solving problems. Charlie Angus was the same as ever here but the national NDP campaign certainly didn't help him.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Wasn't that the point? They literally had partisan analysts. Gerald Butts and Lisa Raitt were up there.

Was listening to the CBC. Megan Leslie was soooo wrong when saying Layton "had a slow buildup" so we should be letting Singh continue to work. Layton had an instant boom in 2011, the exact opposite of a slow buildup.