Calgary International Airport II

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Tobuz

While it is frustrating, I’m not sure that the parking change led to that decline. YYC always had much more pre-security retail and restaurants than any other airport I know of, and since the 9/11 security changes made clearing security such a PITA ... I think fewer passengers would spend any time landside. (Even when there was a small grace period for free parking, the vast majority of customers at the airport were passengers.)

I think most of the people taking advantage of the free parking on P1 were just people waiting to pick up — not people going inside to shop or dine.

Agreed.

The decline in pre-security domestic terminal food & retail was the opening of the post security food and retail on concourse D.

The transatlantic flights routinely had pax getting to the airport 3+ hours before departure. Those pax (mostly visitors to YYC that are used to much busier airports) would hang out in the pre-security terminal area until 1.5 hours before their flight.

The new terminal set up has those pax going through security immediately after checkin. The pax are still spending money on Food and retail, its just occurring in the concourse D establishments rather than in the domestic terminal.

[hollywoodcory]

November stats are out:

Domestic: 881,896 -0.7% (2019 to date: 11,507,660 +2.28%)
Transborder: 275,274 +2.9% (2019 to date: 3,239,418 +5.51%)
International: 136,833 +6.4% (2019 to date: 1,750,897 +9.40%)
November Total: 1,294,003 +0.8%

2019 Year to Date Total: 16,497,975 +3.62%

There's still a chance of reaching 18 million, but I feel like we'll come up just short landing around 17.9 million for the full year. International still leading the way even with losing HU in November.

[People_talking]

Enough prayers and we can reach 18 mil, seeing 17.9 m as our passenger stats for the next year will bother the hell out of me.

[thenoflyzone]

^lol

Prepare to be bothered in 2020.

Considering the last few years where growth in Dec has matched Oct and Nov, chances are 2019 will finish with 17.99 million.

[nname]

Originally Posted by People_talking

Enough prayers and we can reach 18 mil, seeing 17.9 m as our passenger stats for the next year will bother the hell out of me.

This is so much like YVR last year.

Stat from Nov 2018 shows YVR was on pace to 25.99M passengers for 2018... but growth in December slowed down a bit so it ended the year with 25.94M

[hollywoodcory]

Happy New Year everyone! 2019 was pretty good year for YYC!

-First ever A350 landed via a diversion from Hong Kong Airlines
-WS added 6 new destinations - ATL / PDX / AUS / CDG / DUB / PUJ
-WS opened its Dreamliner hangar & based its 787 aircraft here
-Opened the East Deicing Pad.

2020 is also looking pretty good too:
-WS opening its first flagship lounge.
-New flights to FCO & BOS (and possibly more)

[YYCFlier]

I agree in general a good year for YYC in 2019. However, let's also point out:

AC reductions - dropped SEA, YQQ, PSP with service reductions to LAX snd SFO
BA - reduction of LHR schedule
HU - reduced to summer seasonal

General trend is - AC continues to hold its own or reduce service (this may be partially reversed when the MAX returns), most international carriers are doing the same, but WS continues to grow

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I agree in general a good year for YYC in 2019. However, let's also point out:

AC reductions - dropped SEA, YQQ, PSP with service reductions to LAX snd SFO
BA - reduction of LHR schedule
HU - reduced to summer seasonal

General trend is - AC continues to hold its own or reduce service (this may be partially reversed when the MAX returns), most international carriers are doing the same, but WS continues to grow

Westjet will continue to grow as they will feed their international flights with 6th freedom pax.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Alexcaban

Westjet will continue to grow as they will feed their international flights with 6th freedom pax.

That’s the trend. As WS grows in YYC the barriers to entry will only get stronger for other carriers and will continue to push others out. AC will always maintain a significant presence but their recent attention has been focussing on YVR in the West. They are adding BOS from YYC but definitely wouldn’t see much more in the short to medium term. Holding on to what they have.
Don’t forget TS has pulled all YYC intl flying this summer and Condor reducing back to 3 weekly. Pretty much wipes out the WS additions. In addition, I don’t see AM in the scheds this summer although they recently just increased YVR summer flying to 20 flights per week.
I think it’s going to be all about Westjet in YYC for awhile.

[msmariner]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

That’s the trend. As WS grows in YYC the barriers to entry will only get stronger for other carriers and will continue to push others out. AC will always maintain a significant presence but their recent attention has been focussing on YVR in the West. They are adding BOS from YYC but definitely wouldn’t see much more in the short to medium term. Holding on to what they have.
Don’t forget TS has pulled all YYC intl flying this summer and Condor reducing back to 3 weekly. Pretty much wipes out the WS additions. In addition, I don’t see AM in the scheds this summer although they recently just increased YVR summer flying to 20 flights per week.
I think it’s going to be all about Westjet in YYC for awhile.

I guess with the large increase in international traffic at YYC in 2019 all some can see are negatives. Bring on more WS flights! Did you come on here to pump the tires of YVR or try and kick YYC? Besides YUL I don’t see International growth as strong as YYC

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by msmariner

I guess with the large increase in international traffic at YYC in 2019 all some can see are negatives. Bring on more WS flights! Did you come on here to pump the tires of YVR or try and kick YYC? Besides YUL I don’t see International growth as strong as YYC

Not at all. Just the reality. A smaller market like YYC there is no way it can sustain all the international airlines flying out of here. As WS grows (and it will) it will continue to push others out and prevent others from jumping in. That’s exactly what has happened the last two years and that’s what will continue to happen in the next few years as Westjet continues to grow here. The last three to four posts highlights that exact same trend.

[hollywoodcory]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I agree in general a good year for YYC in 2019. However, let's also point out:

AC reductions - dropped SEA, YQQ, PSP with service reductions to LAX snd SFO
BA - reduction of LHR schedule
HU - reduced to summer seasonal

General trend is - AC continues to hold its own or reduce service (this may be partially reversed when the MAX returns), most international carriers are doing the same, but WS continues to grow

I was focusing mostly on the positive. AC also reduced NRT back to summer seasonal as well.

I suspect in the future, BA will completely pull out and WS will go daily year-round on LGW as well as extended CDG to year-round.

[nname]

Originally Posted by msmariner

I guess with the large increase in international traffic at YYC in 2019 all some can see are negatives. Bring on more WS flights! Did you come on here to pump the tires of YVR or try and kick YYC? Besides YUL I don’t see International growth as strong as YYC

Everything Johnny said was true though. AC had been focused mainly on YVR for international service from western Canada. In fact, they market YYC as "regional hub", and YYZ/YUL/YVR as "global hub" or "main hub"... which means AC could continue to add or increase domestic and transborder service from YYC, but the chance of getting a new long-hual from AC would be low.

Anyways, HU had re-opened reservation for PEK on April and May, so S20 service to PEK now run the full summer schedule.

If WS ever start PEK from YYC... it's quite likely that HU could pulled the route. In the YVR thread we discussed how many Chinese airlines got subsidy for 3 years for new service, and immediately start reduce or cancel the route once 3 years expires. And then I noticed this is the 4th winter since HU started service to YYC. So maybe HU got some subsidy before the summer of 2019, but they're on their own now, so they only want to operate the profitable months and could potential cancel it when it can no longer profit?

However, seems like the Chinese authority now disallow reallocation of service from one route to another. So.. say if HU want to move the service from YYC to YVR (which now exempt from one-carrier-per-route rule), then they must reapply and compete against all other airlines applying for Canadian routes, with each application graded out of a score of 100 based on utilization of existing slots, connectivity, airline performance, etc... They could be forced to hold onto it in order to keep the slot. However, if many other airlines start to drop Canadian routes or frequencies, then things may change... This already happened in US zone 2, which many airliners dropping routes here and there after the first one pulled the trigger...

[s211]

Originally Posted by nname

In the YVR thread we discussed how many Chinese airlines got subsidy for 3 years for new service, and immediately start reduce or cancel the route once 3 years expires.

Out of curiosity, subsidies from YVR?

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

I suspect in the future, BA will completely pull out and WS will go daily year-round on LGW as well as extended CDG to year-round.

I agree WS will try to get LGW and CDG to year round. BA cannot cut back much more; if they can't make this schedule work I agree they're done. TS already pulled out. Will remain to be seen if BA can hold service with all the other options to Europe now (LGW/LHR/FRA/CDG/AMS/DUB/FCO/ZRH).

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by hollywoodcory

I was focusing mostly on the positive. AC also reduced NRT back to summer seasonal as well.

From what I hear this route does well for AC so I'm hopeful it goes to a 788 in S2021.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by nname

Everything Johnny said was true though. AC had been focused mainly on YVR for international service from western Canada. In fact, they market YYC as "regional hub", and YYZ/YUL/YVR as "global hub" or "main hub"... which means AC could continue to add or increase domestic and transborder service from YYC, but the chance of getting a new long-hual from AC would be low.

With WS's growth at YYC, we will be lucky to maintain what we have. From what I can see, LHR/FRA still does very well with connecting pax and NRT seems to be fine seasonally due to leisure from TYO. But I wouldn't count on any new international routes. YYC is by far AC's smallest hub, and WS will counter any attempt AC tries to grow. AC uses YVR in the west, WS uses YYC as primary hubs. Ironically though, AC still has superior international service with year round daily FRA/LHR.

Originally Posted by nname

If WS ever start PEK from YYC... it's quite likely that HU could pulled the route.

Asia is a ways off yet and they may launch out of YVR instead. HU might pull out anyway. I think if WS launches in YYC to Asia they might try TYO (ideally HND but if not NRT) and then AC might give that route up.

[nname]

Originally Posted by s211

Out of curiosity, subsidies from YVR?

From Chinese side, from municipal government.

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Asia is a ways off yet and they may launch out of YVR instead. HU might pull out anyway. I think if WS launches in YYC to Asia they might try TYO (ideally HND but if not NRT) and then AC might give that route up.

There is no slot for HND. I'm sure AC is way ahead of WS in term on the waiting list, so even if Japan grant a HND slot to Canada, it will go to AC instead of WS.

NRT.. maybe there are slot freed up once some airlines move to HND. But as of now, there is also no slot for NRT.

PKX had just been opened so there are tons of slots available. WS can easily get it if they request one. Since PKX will be the SkyTeam hub, it's also more logical for them to operate to PKX rather than PEK (while AC and HU will likely remain at PEK).

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Not at all. Just the reality. A smaller market like YYC there is no way it can sustain all the international airlines flying out of here. As WS grows (and it will) it will continue to push others out and prevent others from jumping in. That’s exactly what has happened the last two years and that’s what will continue to happen in the next few years as Westjet continues to grow here. The last three to four posts highlights that exact same trend.

While I think you are right in the sense of a clear danger of YYC turning into a fortress hub for WS, there is nothing to be worried about if WS cannot keep pace with AC for international year-round service. WS is only 4x weekly to LGW in winter vs. FRA and LHR daily in winter, plus NRT in summer to boot. If WS can manage LGW/CDG year round daily, then maybe we're getting closer to this possibility.

My guess is AC maintains what they have, WS grows but crowds out the other carriers leaving AC alone. TS already left, BA is likely next casualty.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by nname

PKX had just been opened so there are tons of slots available. WS can easily get it if they request one. Since PKX will be the SkyTeam hub, it's also more logical for them to operate to PKX rather than PEK (while AC and HU will likely remain at PEK).

I had forgotten about Daxing. If DL moves there then I agree, it's likely they've already requested slots - most Asian airports are slot restricted.