DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[Meliorem]

A couple of key figures from Downtown Denver Partnership's 2019 State of Downtown Denver.

Downtown Denver
25,727 (up nearly 3,000 (!) in just one year)
2.58 sq mi / 6.69 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

Center City
88,670
8.51 sq mi / 22.04 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

To my knowledge, this puts Denver at the very top when compared to other inland cities without large body of waters (that aren't a part of a larger metro). Even more impressive, it wins out against many coastal cities in both density and immediate downtown population.




Link to pdf:
https://www.downtowndenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2019-State-of-Downtown-Denver.pdf

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Meliorem

A couple of key figures from Downtown Denver Partnership's 2019 State of Downtown Denver.

Downtown Denver
25,727 (up nearly 3,000 (!) in just one year)
2.58 sq mi / 6.69 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

Center City
88,670
8.51 sq mi / 22.04 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

To my knowledge, this puts Denver at the very top when compared to other inland cities without large body of waters (that aren't a part of a larger metro). Even more impressive, it wins out against many coastal cities in both density and immediate downtown population.

So Denver has now out-grown Des Moines IA?

I kid, but I'm trying to figure out what is left. For example, Tempe has a lot of people when you consider 55,000 ASU students plus normal people but then Tempe is part of a larger metro area so that doesn't count? There's 18 MSA's that are larger than metro Denver so that's the starting point for comparison, I guess. Then eliminate large bodies of water places.

I will say that over 88,000 people in the City Center is quite impressive.

[jbssfelix]

Originally Posted by Meliorem

A couple of key figures from Downtown Denver Partnership's 2019 State of Downtown Denver.

Downtown Denver
25,727 (up nearly 3,000 (!) in just one year)
2.58 sq mi / 6.69 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

Center City
88,670
8.51 sq mi / 22.04 km² (own calculation based on the outline below)

"Downtown Denver has added almost 20,000 residents in less than 20 years, with today’s population at 25,727."

So, downtown Denver only had ~5,000 people 20 years ago? Yikes.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

"Downtown Denver has added almost 20,000 residents in less than 20 years, with today’s population at 25,727."

So, downtown Denver only had ~5,000 people 20 years ago? Yikes.

In 1999, the Central Platte Valley/Union Station area was entirely rail yards; LoDo had residential but it was almost entirely lofts in historic buildings so the total number of units wasn't that huge; Arapahoe Square and Uptown and Golden Triangle were dominated by parking lots and lower-scale commercial uses with just a bit of residential here and there; Prospect/Union Station North was all commercial/industrial; and Central/Upper Downtown was dominated by office and hotel towers. So yeah.

[Meliorem]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

So Denver has now out-grown Des Moines IA?

I kid, but I'm trying to figure out what is left. For example, Tempe has a lot of people when you consider 55,000 ASU students plus normal people but then Tempe is part of a larger metro area so that doesn't count? There's 18 MSA's that are larger than metro Denver so that's the starting point for comparison, I guess. Then eliminate large bodies of water places.

I will say that over 88,000 people in the City Center is quite impressive.

As long as the city in question has a downtown and functions as such, it doesn't really matter whether or not it's considered a satellite/edge city in a larger administrative area. I had to be very specific with the phrasing because I haven't had the time to do the math on the inland cities of Los Angeles (CSA) and then there's Chicago (Great Lakes).

[Meliorem]

Originally Posted by jbssfelix

"Downtown Denver has added almost 20,000 residents in less than 20 years, with today’s population at 25,727."

So, downtown Denver only had ~5,000 people 20 years ago? Yikes.

It sounds bad but consider this. 20 years ago, downtown Los Angeles had 27,849 residents living in an area over twice the size of downtown Denver. Since then, LA has tripled while Denver has quintupled. The numbers, then and now, are actually far above the national average for U.S. downtown population. Compare the numbers to those of other inland cities and I think you will be surprised how well Denver is doing.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Meliorem

A couple of key figures from Downtown Denver Partnership's 2019 State of Downtown Denver.

Link to pdf:
https://www.downtowndenver.com/wp-content/uploads/2019-State-of-Downtown-Denver.pdf

I will say that's the best presentation ever of the State of Downtown Denver with easy to (visually) scroll through bullet points, going back to the 1800's.

Originally Posted by mhays

Lists like "best for business" start with the writer's agenda. They count the stuff THEY like. It's basically clickbait unless there's a ton of context, which there typically isn't. So people get suckered.

Watch me tie all this together... I suspect where you erred was in not seeing the overall "general business" category. Forget 'general business' and there are indeed all manner of "Best of" lists. This came to mind partly from going through DTP's new 2019 State of Downtown Denver which reads very much like a marketing promotion even if accurate and factual.

There's 'Best of' lists from best place for sex to best place for no sex to best place for outdoor picnics to best place for indoor picnics. These lists are only limited by ones imagination and yes they're all over the landscape.

The other fun thing is how statistics are used. For example an increase in percentage off of a small base is way easier than an increase off of a large base. One could list increases by absolute numbers instead of percentage. Or you could just list totals from top down. It all depends on picking which looks better for your desired purposes.

The other good example of cherry picking (which is where you wanted to go) is instead of overall 'best of business' you select one category like 'best labor pool' or even one item out of a sub-category like 'best tech workers' or 'best bio-science pool' (which I know Seattle is known for). Or if one wanted to express a bias for 'urbanism' that data could be cherry picked as well. It's merely matter of selecting what paints the best canvass from among a gazillion options.

It does show the general value of the 'best of business' lists for a good overall perspective since they summarize and combine copious amounts of data as opposed to cherry picking for the benefit and biases of a specific city/metro/state, whatever the subject.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by DenverInfill

In 1999, the Central Platte Valley/Union Station area was entirely rail yards; LoDo had residential but it was almost entirely lofts in historic buildings so the total number of units wasn't that huge; Arapahoe Square and Uptown and Golden Triangle were dominated by parking lots and lower-scale commercial uses with just a bit of residential here and there; Prospect/Union Station North was all commercial/industrial; and Central/Upper Downtown was dominated by office and hotel towers. So yeah.

Yup, downtown Denver was the epitome of 9-5 place, especially after the O&G bust since those guys were downtown party animals. After they left town, Denver turned off all the street lights at 6:00 pm (or so it felt like).

Originally Posted by Meliorem

It sounds bad but consider this. 20 years ago, downtown Los Angeles had 27,849 residents living in an area over twice the size of downtown Denver. Since then, LA has tripled while Denver has quintupled. The numbers, then and now, are actually far above the national average for U.S. downtown population. Compare the numbers to those of other inland cities and I think you will be surprised how well Denver is doing.

L.A. is an easy comparison, really, given their sprawl and many commercial nodes outside of 'downtown.'

What's important and unique to Denver was the amazing timing and progression for Big Catalysts from Coors Field to the expansion of the convention center with FasTracks being the cherry on top. Take all that and meet the Great Millennial Migration into urban centers and it was like a perfect storm.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Meliorem

As long as the city in question has a downtown and functions as such, it doesn't really matter whether or not it's considered a satellite/edge city in a larger administrative area. I had to be very specific with the phrasing because I haven't had the time to do the math on the inland cities of Los Angeles (CSA) and then there's Chicago (Great Lakes).

Sorry to belabor the point but I'm still scratching my head.

The Southwest ie Texas and Arizona couldn't care less about their downtown's other than for the usual cultural and sports stuff. Austin's core is growing nicely along with other close-in areas. Seattle, Portland, San Diego and Chicago have large bodies of water. Inland L.A. for sprawl reasons similarly lacks any notable downtown's. Same story for the SE part of the country excepting maybe Miami which is ofc next to the ocean.

So Denver is being compared with Sacramento, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Boise, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Minneapolis, Fargo, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Columbus and Charlotte? Doesn't seem like it's much of a contest but at least Denver is leading the pack.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Anybody in the forum want to have a celebratory last hoorah happy hour at Shelby's before it is torn down for the condo towers next month?

[The Dirt]

I'm down.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Anybody in the forum want to have a celebratory last hoorah happy hour at Shelby's before it is torn down for the condo towers next month?

Yes please.

[DenvertoLA]

the two tabor website expired. I'd say it's belly up now for sure.

https://www.twotabor.com

[SirLucasTheGreat]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

the two tabor website expired. I'd say it's belly up now for sure.

https://www.twotabor.com

That's sad but expected. With the lack of activity over the past year, it seemed like it fell through. Oh well. As far as downtown development is concerned, I'm very excited for Block 162, Market station, and McGregor Square; all of which are under construction. Block 176 gave their demolition notice to Shelby's so that should get started this summer. Hopefully, the Block 162 hotel or convention center Marriott get off the ground this market cycle.

[DenvertoLA]

speaking about the block 162 hotel project... what is the time frame for project that incorporates a historic building? Does that delay this project a good year or so?

[BG918]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

That's sad but expected. With the lack of activity over the past year, it seemed like it fell through. Oh well. As far as downtown development is concerned, I'm very excited for Block 162, Market station, and McGregor Square; all of which are under construction. Block 176 gave their demolition notice to Shelby's so that should get started this summer. Hopefully, the Block 162 hotel or convention center Marriott get off the ground this market cycle.

I think the emergence of RiNo and the rezoning to 16 stories around 38th & Blake Station could be partly to blame. Over a million sq ft of office space is planned or under construction in that area, probably enough for the downtown sub-market to absorb so late in this cycle (most of these projects will come online in late 2020/2021. Remember the downtown office sub-market competes with the Tech Center which has added a lot of new office space as well with several more projects planned.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

I think the emergence of RiNo and the rezoning to 16 stories around 38th & Blake Station could be partly to blame. Over a million sq ft of office space is planned or under construction in that area, probably enough for the downtown sub-market to absorb so late in this cycle (most of these projects will come online in late 2020/2021. Remember the downtown office sub-market competes with the Tech Center which has added a lot of new office space as well with several more projects planned.

Good points.

Except for Belleview Station I've lost track of the Tech Center. I am aware of RidgeGate and Kiewit's plans to build nearby to Schwab and the nascent interest in Lone Tree City Center.

This last week, Urban Land released their "Regional Spotlight: U.S. West" including all of the west coast, Arizona, Texas and Colorado. It's a nice overview of development and economic activity. The West Coast is like the energizer bunny; it just keeps going and going. Pretty much the same for Texas, especially Austin.

Tech companies like being downtown, but not exclusively. Apple is in downtown Austin; they're also proceeding with a $1 billion campus style home initially for 5,000 employees growing to 15,000 employees. Google isn't in downtown Boulder.

At least west of the Mississippi demand for more space is still exceeding developer's ability to supply needed space.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by BG918

Over a million sq ft of office space is planned or under construction in that area, probably enough for the downtown sub-market to absorb so late in this cycle

There's an old saying that the (stock) market likes to climb a 'wall of worry.' Those who play the 'short' side of the market can get rich quick since when the market turns tail it usually goes down fast - and that's what everybody worries about.

Many fear that tariff tuft wars could become the next black swan. But Trump's plan is too easy to read. He wants all these tariff tiffs resolved by the end of this year. They just wrapped up eliminating tariffs in North America so NAFTA has been put to bed. China is trickier; it's the classic Mexican Standoff; both sides think they can outlast the other. Ultimately, both sides have too much to lose to not reach some kind of accommodation.

I'm not sure Obama (and the Fed) will ever receive his due for how the Great Recession was handled. Fast forward and today's Euro financial institutions are still struggling with the aftereffects. They're losing market share to (obviously) growing Asia but also to U.S. financial institutions which were forced to clean up their messes quickly and fly right. The result is they're now in good clean shape and growing global market share.

Bottom Line: This cycle still has a nice runway ahead. The fact that it's not straight up and can get bumpy is also what extends the runway. I'm thinking another 5-7 years. Soft spots exist today; there's always something somewhere but nothing I see that's malignant.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Bottom Line: This cycle still has a nice runway ahead. The fact that it's not straight up and can get bumpy is also what extends the runway. I'm thinking another 5-7 years. Soft spots exist today; there's always something somewhere but nothing I see that's malignant.

I think you’re dreaming if you think this cycle will go another 5-7 years. I shudder to think of what a recession would look like after that.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by BG918

I think you’re dreaming if you think this cycle will go another 5-7 years. I shudder to think of what a recession would look like after that.

I absolutely agree. This is already the longest period of expansion in US history already. I have no faith in experts ability to predict the timing on the next recession. I 'll let history be my guide and say this won't last much longer.

The next recession when it comes could be ugly. With such a long boom we should be running up surpluses, or coming close, rather than engaging in massive deficit spending which in part is fueling the economic sugar high.

When the recession comes, query how we will fund the typical economic stimulus (both spending and tax cuts) that typically helps drive a quicker turnaround.

Of course if President "The Iraqi War was the worst mistake in U.S History" decides to up the ante with an Iran war, then all bets are off.