Calgary International Airport II

[YYCFlier]

+1 for Acey

2-3 daily widebody 763s returning for summer on AC for YYC-YYZ now. Same as winter. Bodes well for 788/789 return once the 763s exit the fleet.

[excel]

Wrong thread

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Acey

What does not bode well for us in terms of AC9 is new YVR-AKL service on the 788. That frame, I believe is our best chance at retaining NRT service. Once the New Zealand inevitably does well and stays year round, there's simply no frames left for us. I maintain that 789 is too much airplane and once WS launches NRT it's all over.

I maintain if WS launches NRT it doesn't matter, AC will kill the route. I think WS will launch ICN or HND first, though. Agreed the 788 is probably best frame for YYC-NRT, though they've run that route on a 789 before. Also possible they shift another 788 to 789 to free a frame for NRT.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Acey

Number of flights is a dumb metric, as is debating over the semantics of what AC deems YYC to be. In any event...



You might have your piers mixed up? A is the exclusive WS pier. The area between A and B is gates 21-24 which are already exclusively WS for the entire day, save the couple times weekly Air North flight that will be there. B is mostly WS and now Encore, Transat, Flair, Jazz DH3's on the ground loading positions at the end of the pier, and rarely AC mainline outside of summer aside from heavy AC subs from YYZ/YVR that need gate 37 as the 77W fits nowhere else on the domestic side.

At certain times the entirety of both A and B piers are exclusively WS and Encore, save 36, 39 and 40 at the end of B.

Let me try to restate it.

Currently:
- WS is in A and the space between A and B
- B is this overflow space (when AC and WS does runs out on A and C)
- AC is in C

My question is will AC shrink to the point where it can be served just from C. Freeing up B to be mostly WS, that puts more WS domestic flights a bit closer to international and trans boarder.

I suspect secretly WS would love to be able to have AC leave C all together. However that is not likely to happen.

[Johnny Aussie]

Decent summary of seasonal summer flights returning this summer.

Also confirms BA LHR and AC NRT staying seasonal (at this point).

https://www.yyc.com/Media/Blog/TabId/785...ummer-2019-Returning-flights-to-YYC.aspx

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Acey

Monday afternoon.... five European 787-9 arrivals in about an hour. WS' LGW/CDG/DUB all fly Monday, then AC's LHR/FRA.

Customs should be fun around that time.

[Johnny Aussie]

AC has finally updated its booking engine for summer 2019

Main eastern routes

YYZ 16 daily: 12 7M8s 3 763s 1 320
YUL 5 daily: 3 320s 2 7M8s
YOW 2 daily: 1 320 1 319

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Acey

+KLM. 2 of the 6 get shitty gates... and it's never going to be Air Canada.

What about DE and WK? 763 and A340...

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

AC has finally updated its booking engine for summer 2019

Main eastern routes

YYZ 16 daily: 12 7M8s 3 763s 1 320
YUL 5 daily: 3 320s 2 7M8s
YOW 2 daily: 1 320 1 319

The YYZ schedule is nice (and bodes well for 788/789 in winter). YOW downgauged though?

[YYCguys]

Originally Posted by Acey

+KLM. 2 of the 6 get shitty gates... and it's never going to be Air Canada.

Which gates are the “shitty” ones and why are they considered to be so?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Acey

+KLM. 2 of the 6 get shitty gates... and it's never going to be Air Canada.

KL AMS inbounds at 13:25 and outbounds at 15:10. IIRC KL and one other airline shared a gate where in one outbound at 15:15 and the other inbound at 16:00.

WS DUB can be serviced from a US transborder gate because its inbound only.

WS CDG and LGW have a 4-5 hour turnaround, so it too can arrive at a USA gate if needed and the outbound and then be towed over to a gate once the arrival bank dies down.

AC LHR and FRA have decent efficient turnaround times.

Also, if you find a way to get rid of the WS swing gate issue there are 7 international wide body gates: 71 / 73 / 74 / 76 / 78 / 80 / 83. The list excludes operating for the poopy gates 85 and 86.

[Blader]

I've done a little bit of math on number of seats on wide body aircraft in both WestJets and Air Canada's Fleet.
At present today,WestJet with 1698 seats and Air Canada/Rouge with 28966 seats. Westjets offerings are just under 6% of Air Canadas.

When all of WestJets orders are delivered by 2022 then the numbers change assuming that Air Canada does not acquire more wide bodies. So by 2022 the numbers look like this.
WestJet at 4248 and Air Canada unchanged at 28,966. Now WestJet is just shy of 15%.
That said, looks into the future are fraught with difficulty.

[PPAR]

Originally Posted by Blader

I've done a little bit of math on number of seats on wide body aircraft in both WestJets and Air Canada's Fleet.
At present today,WestJet with 1698 seats and Air Canada/Rouge with 28966 seats. Westjets offerings are just under 6% of Air Canadas.

When all of WestJets orders are delivered by 2022 then the numbers change assuming that Air Canada does not acquire more wide bodies. So by 2022 the numbers look like this.
WestJet at 4248 and Air Canada unchanged at 28,966. Now WestJet is just shy of 15%.
That said, looks into the future are fraught with difficulty.

I appreciate everyone’s comments, and was really just being devils advocate in order to get everybody’s thoughts on the competitive landscape at YYC. The answers were interesting.

The math here for WestJet is off by an order of magnitude. The WestJet Fleet as of today has 19789 (not including encore). I did not check the AC number.

Edit: sorry, just realized this is for widebody only

[PPAR]

Fun fact, the WestJet 737 fleet, at 121 aircraft, is currently larger than Air Canada’s Airbus/737 narrowbody fleet at 96.

[Blader]

Originally Posted by Acey

It's an airline based on WN, a ridiculously successful narrowbody juggernaut. They have only 1 proper widebody in service so far. To compare them in total number of widebody seats to 80 years of Big Red is a beyond useless metric that proves nothing.

I beg to differ.
Number of widebody seats translate into number of frames.
1/ number of frames of various sizes provide flexibility for:
- seasonal variations and deployment
- weather related events
- parking aircraft in economic downturns - power by the hour on a number of frames
2/ profitability
- there is no such thing as a proper wide body - the measure is profit.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Air Canada still routes a fair bit of traffic thru YYC. You're kidding yourself if you think they fill up two 789s in winter with O&D only. Lots of connecting passengers from the prairies and BC, and some U.S. customers as well.

We will see. YYC already has the highest % of connecting passengers in the country for major airports. It's sitting at 66% O&D and 34% connecting now. That's what a hub is for - connecting passengers. It lessens the O&D oil and gas boom and bust cycle.

Agreed like I said AC will most likely stick to the larger O&D Markets and the network will still maintain the feed from BC AB and SK to support their routes.

And yes WS has been successful with its predominantly North American hub ops at YYC. Venturing into the long haul market... a totally different set of variables.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Agreed like I said AC will most likely stick to the larger O&D Markets and the network will still maintain the feed from BC AB and SK to support their routes.

I don't think O&D means what you think it means. There is no way AC fills two whole 789s daily with traffic that originates solely in YYC; pax connect in YYC from SK/BC/AB and the US.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And yes WS has been successful with its predominantly North American hub ops at YYC. Venturing into the long haul market... a totally different set of variables.

Where else would they go other than NA without widebody aircraft?

WS is relying heavily on connecting traffic for CDG/DUB and daily LGW with larger aircraft.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

I don't think O&D means what you think it means. There is no way AC fills two whole 789s daily with traffic that originates solely in YYC; pax connect in YYC from SK/BC/AB and the US.

Yes it does.

Like I’ve said three times now.. AC will most likely stick to its core main O&D routes. From YYC In Canada that’s mainly YVR, YYZ, YUL and YEG. In the US that’s mainly LAX, PHX, IAH, LAS, NYC. International that’s mainly LHR and FRA.

These are the largest O&D markets for YYC. And don't forget there are two sides to the O&D... the YYC side and the LHR/FRA side etc... I would literally fall off my chair if AC dropped either LHR or FRA from YYC. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if NRT gets axed permanently.

And as I’ve also now stated three times, yes the minimal footprint of feed will most likely continue from BC, AB and SK airports to help fill the largest O&D routes. Mainly YLW, YYJ, YMM, YQU, YQL, YXE and YQR. I’ve never stated these flights would exist on O&D alone but the largest O&D routes that I’ve highlighted above will most likely always exist for AC. AC’s flights to YYZ, YVR and YUL also support the significant AC Hub ops at those three airports.

And for your second point. Yes, where else is WS going to send them?
My point is WS has done very well on a predominantly YYC North American hub operation for domestic and transborder.
Their choice to purchase large dreamliners is now a different playing field.
They will now rely even more on feeder traffic to fill these big birds. This is a big punt and perhaps maybe bad timing.

This is now a whole different set of variables.

Hence why I believe AC will continue to shrink at YYC as WS continues to expand

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

These are the largest O&D markets for YYC. And don't forget there are two sides to the O&D... the YYC side and the LHR/FRA side etc... I would literally fall off my chair if AC dropped either LHR or FRA from YYC. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if NRT gets axed permanently.

O&D stands for origin and destination. YYC-FRA and YYC-LHR are not "O&D" because AC does not fill those planes with people solely originating (O) in YYC. People connect in YYC to get to those planes, and then their destination (D) is often not FRA or LHR, but rather other destinations particularly in Europe.

I think AC gets a fair bit of connecting traffic through YYC to fill LHR and FRA. That makes it by definition a non-O&D market. AC makes money on this route primarily because it gets people in YYC (but also in BC, SK, MB and US) to LHR and FRA, but also mostly to connect onwards in the two biggest hubs in Europe. Compare this to YYC-YYZ where in fact people want to start (origin) in YYC and end (destination) in YYZ. FRA and LHR are actually a good example of AC using YYC as a hub.