Calgary International Airport II

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

YYC is AC's smallest hub and sits between a small hub and "large focus city". AC has made the conscious choice to make YVR their primary hub in the west, and WS has chosen the opposite.

With WS's massive investments in YYC I think AC is happy to let WS have it. Why fight WS at YYC when they are wide open at YUL?

There is already significant competition out of AC's major hubs - YUL/YVR/YYZ all have very significant foreign non-U.S. carrier traffic.

Makes sense for both companies to focus on developing and enhancing their own businesses instead of going after each other. Further, if AC was seen as making moves specifically to squeeze WJ out, it could be seen as anti-competitive behavior. Two stable and healthy airlines is a good thing at the end of the day.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by zahav

WS is dropping Terrace (YXT) service from YYC starting March 5th. Full article here:

https://www.terracestandard.com/news/westjet-bails-on-terrace-calgary-connection/

Interesting this will be the 2nd time they tried and pulled out. I wonder if there will be a 3rd try once the LNG stuff really ramps up? I feel like this try was premature, but there's definite hope it will be viable one day. They are adding YXT-YVR capacity instead now

I have constantly heard 2nd and 3rd hand stories that WestJet is being strongly influenced by TransCanada Corp. TCC owns the Coastal GasLink LNG pipeline. However CGL is now up for sale and TCC wants out. The new owner is unlikely to have the same loyalty to WS, so its best if WS Encore exits now.

[MalcolmTucker]

Maybe daily Link flights would work better?

[Johnny Aussie]

Transborder changes for summer 2019

Latest changes:

DL to MSP - 1 of the 3 daily MSP now a 717
DL to SLC - both daily flights back to DL Connection E75s
AC to SEA - looks like this is actually being cut

DL is becoming more like UA with their constant changes....

AC as always subject to change too... but it does look gone (despite what the schedules are saying... AC has changed their system updates whereby the schedule system is not necessarily updated first). They must be on to us avgeeks!

With the above change AC down to 10 daily transborder this summer.

Also looks like AC is axing YYC-YQQ and YEG-YYJ

[YYCFlier]

Ugh, AC continues to cut back at YYC. There's no reason YQQ could not work, WS is 3x daily, twice mainline - and AC can't fill a Q400? SEA is also a loss, but perhaps too competitive with AS and DL. AC already cut PDX x2 daily to once daily - they going to cut to seasonal next? Guess we know which routes are being cut to start as they remove 8 DH4s from the fleet.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

Ugh, AC continues to cut back at YYC. There's no reason YQQ could not work, WS is 3x daily, twice mainline - and AC can't fill a Q400? SEA is also a loss, but perhaps too competitive with AS and DL. AC already cut PDX x2 daily to once daily - they going to cut to seasonal next? Guess we know which routes are being cut to start as they remove 8 DH4s from the fleet.

This is the pattern I’m talking about. AC is going to be slowly squeezed to downsize at YYC as WS continues to expand. Down to about 95 flights per day now.
YYC has lost 4 AC destinations since last summer but is resuming YXU seasonal service. Another flip flop route.
Eventually as AC continues to focus on YVR in the West I think we will see AC continue to slowly shrink at YYC but still maintain service to its largest markets based more on O&D versus connecting. The pattern continues...
The YYC market isn’t big enough to have two large hubs... and fighting for connecting traffic to fill planes just pressures the yields even more to make services viable.

[TheGreatestX]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Eventually as AC continues to focus on YVR in the West I think we will see AC continue to slowly shrink at YYC but still maintain service to its largest markets based more on O&D versus connecting. The pattern continues...

So what routes would not be strong enough to continue based on O&D demand alone?

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

YYC has lost 4 AC destinations since last summer but is resuming YXU seasonal service. Another flip flop route.

SEA, YQQ and what else?

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The YYC market isn’t big enough to have two large hubs... and fighting for connecting traffic to fill planes just pressures the yields even more to make services viable.

AC's YYC hub isn't "large". It's the smallest one and by a large margin.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

AC's YYC hub isn't "large". It's the smallest one and by a large margin.

It is now... but rewind to 10 years ago and YYC and YVR were a lot closer in number of flights and destinations.

That’s my point... as WestJet continues to build at YYC this makes it even tougher for AC to hang on to what it has.

Last summer YYC had flights to YQF, YXC, YQQ and SEA. The first three are small markets but indicative of the shrinking foot print.

[nname]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It is now... but rewind to 10 years ago and YYC and YVR were a lot closer in number of flights and destinations.

That’s my point... as WestJet continues to build at YYC this makes it even tougher for AC to hang on to what it has.

Last summer YYC had flights to YQF, YXC, YQQ and SEA. The first three are small markets but indicative of the shrinking foot print.

WIth these changes, weekly frequency from YYC is now actually closer to focus cities than the other 3 hubs:

	YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ	YEG
S18	2871	1288	1267	810	382	375	339
S19	2772	1314	1295	676	402	381	332

[YYCFlier]

A lot of the lost capacity is due to Georgian and will be made up to some degree with larger aircraft - available seats may be the same. However, you make my point - if YYC is a hub (which AC claims it is), it's a very small one or a large focus city.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

It is now... but rewind to 10 years ago and YYC and YVR were a lot closer in number of flights and destinations.

I think this was before Air Canada expanded like crazy with the arrival of the Dreamliner fleet. They chose YVR over YYC.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YYCFlier

A lot of the lost capacity is due to Georgian and will be made up to some degree with larger aircraft - available seats may be the same. However, you make my point - if YYC is a hub (which AC claims it is), it's a very small one or a large focus city.

So if AC is shrinking in YYC, does this mean that WS can take over using most of the gates in pier B and the area between A and B. While the A becomes the overflow most most everyone.

That would get their domestic flights a bit closer to the international pier.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

Number of flights is a dumb metric, as is debating over the semantics of what AC deems YYC to be. In any event...



You might have your piers mixed up? A is the exclusive WS pier. The area between A and B is gates 21-24 which are already exclusively WS for the entire day, save the couple times weekly Air North flight that will be there. B is mostly WS and now Encore, Transat, Flair, Jazz DH3's on the ground loading positions at the end of the pier, and rarely AC mainline outside of summer aside from heavy AC subs from YYZ/YVR that need gate 37 as the 77W fits nowhere else on the domestic side.

At certain times the entirety of both A and B piers are exclusively WS and Encore, save 36, 39 and 40 at the end of B.

Not really. Depends how you’re looking at it.

Most US carriers use departures per day as their metric as to how they rank their hubs.

In any event the shrinking footprint of AC at YYC is clearly happening and we know why.

I think he’s just mistaking the piers before they were re-lettered.
A is now C
B/C is now B only
D is now A

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Acey

Yeah but we're not ranking US airlines at US hubs, we're talking about a small operation in Calgary whose primary fluctuation is predicated on the scrubbing of 19 seaters, in two markets where seats have increased.

It's been a downward trend over the last 10 years. Intl has not budged, Transborder at 2/3 what it used to be. Interestingly enough YXU was also a daily mainline flight back in 2009 as was YHZ. Yes, comparatively two of the scrapped beech routes do have a small increase in seats though compared to the prior year. The pattern will continue as AC continues to shrink at YYC. I still believe that AC will still continue services to the larger O&D markets and will still provide minimal feeder traffic from BC and the rest of AB. There even used to be flights to YXY, YXT and YXS but the days of growth are over. Westjet will continue to push out other services.

The figure nname quoted for YYC is going to reduce further as YYZ and YOW will lose a daily flight (AC's scheduling not up to date yet).

[PPAR]

In the near future, WS will be an airline with 160 aircraft in its fleet, including 20 Dreamliners. That is not much smaller than AC with 190 aircraft and 30 Dreamliners.

So my question is, why is AC allowing WS to develop a fortress hub at YYC? A future in which a revived energy sector gives WS a profit advantage at YYC, allowing them flexibility to steal traffic at Canada’s three main airports seems a potential risk of the AC strategy.

I can only think that AC feels that they can easily win back business traffic at YYC if economic fortunes improve here.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by PPAR

In the near future, WS will be an airline with 160 aircraft in its fleet, including 20 Dreamliners. That is not much smaller than AC with 190 aircraft and 30 Dreamliners.

So my question is, why is AC allowing WS to develop a fortress hub at YYC? A future in which a revived energy sector gives WS a profit advantage at YYC, allowing them flexibility to steal traffic at Canada’s three main airports seems a potential risk of the AC strategy.

I can only think that AC feels that they can easily win back business traffic at YYC if economic fortunes improve here.

Economics 101 - allocation of scarce resources... AC can only do so much to defend its turf. They have a limited number of planes to play with... So why not be the dominant carrier at the three largest markets and let number 4 go?

As I've said above, YYC is too small to have two large hubs.

As I stated above AC will most likely still hold on to what it has for the largest O&D markets. Just wouldn't expect growth. AC still has a significant FF base here.

And the fortunes based on the resource sector? Yeah we've seen plenty of ups and downs so that's also a very risky strategy (works both ways). Without a doubt WS is taking a huge punt with this its long haul strategy.... will be heavily reliant on connecting traffic to fill those planes and do it at a profit... it may be awhile before we see the results of that gamble.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

As I've said above, YYC is too small to have two large hubs.

YYC has one large hub and one small hub.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

As I stated above AC will most likely still hold on to what it has for the largest O&D markets. Just wouldn't expect growth. AC still has a significant FF base here.

Air Canada still routes a fair bit of traffic thru YYC. You're kidding yourself if you think they fill up two 789s in winter with O&D only. Lots of connecting passengers from the prairies and BC, and some U.S. customers as well.

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Without a doubt WS is taking a huge punt with this its long haul strategy.... will be heavily reliant on connecting traffic to fill those planes and do it at a profit... it may be awhile before we see the results of that gamble.

We will see. YYC already has the highest % of connecting passengers in the country for major airports. It's sitting at 66% O&D and 34% connecting now. That's what a hub is for - connecting passengers. It lessens the O&D oil and gas boom and bust cycle.

[YYCFlier]

Originally Posted by PPAR

In the near future, WS will be an airline with 160 aircraft in its fleet, including 20 Dreamliners. That is not much smaller than AC with 190 aircraft and 30 Dreamliners.

You're kidding, right? First, those 20 789s include 10 options which WS has not exercised and may never exercise. In addition, Air Canada has 29 789s, 8 788s, soon 12 333s and lots of 77Ws and 77Ls (both larger aircraft), as well as the 25 763s sitting in rouge. The fleets and capacity are not even close.

Originally Posted by PPAR

So my question is, why is AC allowing WS to develop a fortress hub at YYC? A future in which a revived energy sector gives WS a profit advantage at YYC, allowing them flexibility to steal traffic at Canada’s three main airports seems a potential risk of the AC strategy.

Because airlines cannot build hubs everywhere. Why build YYC when you have the top three O&D destinations in the country?

Originally Posted by PPAR

I can only think that AC feels that they can easily win back business traffic at YYC if economic fortunes improve here.

Pssst - they haven't lost it yet. I love WestJet but for the premium traveller they are not a threat. Maybe when they get their lounges in place, a more robust FF program, join an alliance, and daily year round international service from their hubs with onward connections at major airports, then we'll see.