Calgary Construction XXVI

[Bad Grizzly]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

All I said was that Aspen Woods was in area 4 which was one of the areas showing a large decrease in prices for detatched homes. Which I found interesting. Also, I never even mentioned the Beltline.

And in regards to my comment about single family homes dropping from 2015 ro 219, it's true.

Average Price Jan 2019 $521,000
Average Price Jan 2015 $526,000

Like I said, not bullet proof.

I'm curious if you dreamed up those numbers or they actually came from somewhere?

[Bad Grizzly]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Bad Griz - Don't let people troll you.

[Suburgatory]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Toby - The moderators have just called out the shoe-horning of Beltline vs. Aspen Woods. Now I'm not saying we can't bring things up if data showed something, but the data has ZERO community level information. Your post above is the first bringing up "Aspen Woods" - Bad Grizzly was only responding to your thinly veiled attack. Please stop it.

Suburgatory - I know you're frustrated, but posting a random statue is no way to respond and move things in a positive direction.

Bad Griz - Don't let people troll you.

You’re not the gatekeeper.

It’s not frustration. It’s laughing at you and your other account Bad Grizzly unable to let it go. Ever.

I guess you need three moderators to tell you next time.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Longer term trend data is always interesting. Could you post detached, duplex and apartment comparisons between 2014 and 2018? I'm assuming you have them on hand given your note above.

Here is the housing sales data trend for detached, apartment and duplex. These are for the entire city, so only give part of the picture.

REF: https://www.creblink.com/-/media/Public/CREBcom/Housing_Statistics/City_of_Calgary_Report.pdf?la=en

Nothing has been doing very well, but relatively speaking, I'd say the one in the middle has performed worst.

It might be interesting to look at the numbers based on median prices, so that way things are not skewed by one or two 10M dollar sales. That's the blue line. The duplex data may seem perplexing at first glance - how are they maintaining their value? But if we are thoughtful about it, we know that the proportion of infill duplexes keeps rising year over year, so it is not that the same duplex has maintained value, rather that the mix of duplexes sold is shifting to infills. At the end of the day, that means the graph for duplexes doesn't tell us as much as we'd like to think. For detached, looks like they've gone from a median of 460 to about 445 (-3.25%), while apartments have gone down from 280 to about 225 (-19.6%).

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by Suburgatory

My take on Aspen Woods is this: It's certainly not my type of neighborhood. I was in Aspen Woods on Saturday and later that day in Beltline, and the difference is night and day. IMO, you'd have to be on drugs to want to live in the Aspen Woods. There is nothing appealing about the place, but I suppose everyone has different ideas.

I'm thankful that Aspen Woods is there, and that there are people willing to live there because the rest of the city needs a place for the beige cookie cutters and boring middle aged crossover soccer moms, etc.. If people want to be a martyr and live there, I say let them, and I thank them for their sacrifice. It keeps those bad elements away from the rest of the city.

I think the Aspen Landing shopping area isn't too bad, I like its 'mainstreet' effect.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Good riddance. The Beltline is slightly less of a ghetto this morning. Just need to bulldoze the rest of Victoria Park and the neighbourhood won’t seem half bad.

Just keep in mind that same method of 'cleaning up' was applied to the East Village in the 1960s and it was not a good place afterwards.

[Tobyoby]

Yes, the numbers came from somewhere, and yes we have data for 2019, and for previous years. Anybody can google this info if they spend 10 minutes doing so.

Jan 2019
http://www.jimsparrow.com/files/172/Calgary_Housing_Stats_Jan_19.pdf

Jan 2015
http://www.jimsparrow.com/files/90/CREB%20Jan%202015%20Housing%20Stats.pdf

Those links compare data over exactly 4 years, and if you do the math, you'll see the average price of a single family home is less than it was 4 years ago.

Originally Posted by suburbia

I just realized the numbers are not the "areas" rather how a particular area ranked. So 4 out of 8 is not showing a large decrease relative to the others. Further, as was clearly pointed out to you, that area is large and thus there is no way to pinpoint specifics for a particular neighbourhood.

Regarding your average prices, we do not know the average prices for 2019, so if you are going to be comparing real numbers, you need to look at 2014 to 2018.

Originally Posted by Bad Grizzly

I'm curious if you dreamed up those numbers or they actually came from somewhere?

[Corndogger]

The chart on p. 14 concerning the number of months of supply for apartments explains a lot. The current supply looks to be about 9 months worth yet the industry is still building more of this product at what looks like a rather decent pace to me. No wonder prices are dropping so much in this category.

[Bad Grizzly]

Thanks for providing the source of the data. At least we know it's legit, and not made up - which so many people seem to do on the Internet.

So going by that data the average price of detached homes decreased by a grand total of 5K over 4 years.

But apartment condos decreased 305K --> 276K for a total of 29K (ouch!)

So in other words those numbers are more or less re-enforcing the argument that SFH's hold their value more. Thanks for posting.

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

Yes, the numbers came from somewhere, and yes we have data for 2019, and for previous years. Anybody can google this info if they spend 10 minutes doing so.

Jan 2019
http://www.jimsparrow.com/files/172/Calgary_Housing_Stats_Jan_19.pdf

Jan 2015
http://www.jimsparrow.com/files/90/CREB%20Jan%202015%20Housing%20Stats.pdf

Those links compare data over exactly 4 years, and if you do the math, you'll see the average price of a single family home is less than it was 4 years ago.

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by Bad Grizzly

Thanks for providing the source of the data. At least we know it's legit, and not made up - which so many people seem to do on the Internet.

So going by that data the average price of detached homes decreased by a grand total of 5K over 4 years.

But apartment condos decreased 305K --> 276K for a total of 29K (ouch!)

So in other words those numbers are more or less re-enforcing the argument that SFH's hold their value more. Thanks for posting.

The over supply of apartment style condos is definitely impacting the price. The Beltline might be growing in population but it's the outer edges of the city that are growing the fastest. Most people are going to live where they can afford to buy a decent house or whatever and that best suits their lifestyle. The Beltline is great for some but Aspen Woods is better for most assuming you can afford to live there.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

The over supply of apartment style condos is definitely impacting the price. The Beltline might be growing in population but it's the outer edges of the city that are growing the fastest. Most people are going to live where they can afford to buy a decent house or whatever and that best suits their lifestyle. The Beltline is great for some but Aspen Woods is better for most assuming you can afford to live there.

The housing market is really driven by two things:

1.) People migrating from other cities, either directly from other countries, or other cities within Canada. While there are some that will immediately purchase high ticket properties, most are looking for entry level. New people from outside Canada may rent, but short term. Generally the mind-set is buying.

2.) Jobs, but usually with a one year lag. In this case, it is either moving from rent to ownership, or upgrading home within the rental stream or the owning stream.

#2 is going to take some time, but the city has already made the turn for #1. I suspect that the stabilization in 2019 is in part related to the in-migration over recent months.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Beltline is the best

You need to use the median price and not the average price, that's what most realtors and analysts go with. The average price is mostly useless actually.

That's what I had done below, and provided full data graphically.

Originally Posted by suburbia

Here is the housing sales data trend for detached, apartment and duplex. These are for the entire city, so only give part of the picture.

REF: https://www.creblink.com/-/media/Public/CREBcom/Housing_Statistics/City_of_Calgary_Report.pdf?la=en

Nothing has been doing very well, but relatively speaking, I'd say the one in the middle has performed worst.

It might be interesting to look at the numbers based on median prices, so that way things are not skewed by one or two 10M dollar sales. That's the blue line. The duplex data may seem perplexing at first glance - how are they maintaining their value? But if we are thoughtful about it, we know that the proportion of infill duplexes keeps rising year over year, so it is not that the same duplex has maintained value, rather that the mix of duplexes sold is shifting to infills. At the end of the day, that means the graph for duplexes doesn't tell us as much as we'd like to think. For detached, looks like they've gone from a median of 460 to about 445 (-3.25%), while apartments have gone down from 280 to about 225 (-19.6%).

[Bad Grizzly]

First of all you’re comparing raw prices, when you should be comparing percentages. If the median price is 228,000 for an apartment and it’s 430,000 for a detached home Even if they drop the identical amount the percentage would be much higher on the apartment.

Secondly apartment prices did OK in some of the outer areas like the northwest it’s the inner city where they really bombed.

Originally Posted by Beltline is the best

You need to use the median price and not the average price, that's what most realtors and analysts go with. The average price is mostly useless actually.

Going with the median price Detached homes decreased by 38K
Going with the median price apartment homes decreased by 41K

Wow, almost no difference at all. So I guess old streotypes due indeed take a long time to die. Looks like apartments aren't that bad an investment after all.

[Tobyoby]

Originally Posted by Bad Grizzly

First of all you’re comparing raw prices, when you should be comparing percentages. If the median price is 228,000 for an apartment and it’s 430,000 for a detached home Even if they drop the identical amount the percentage would be much higher on the apartment.

Secondly apartment prices did OK in some of the outer areas like the northwest it’s the inner city where they really bombed.

Nope. Percentages are meaningless. 38K is 38K no matter what. Also what makes you think inner city apartments bombed in price, and what areas specifically?

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

Nope. Percentages are meaningless. 38K is 38K no matter what. Also what makes you think inner city apartments bombed in price, and what areas specifically?

Dude, you were the one who posted the link to the article. Didn't you read through it?

[Tobyoby]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Dude, you were the one who posted the link to the article. Didn't you read through it?

The article has a map with general areas of the city. It specifically cover *inner city* as an area.

[Bad Grizzly]

Originally Posted by Tobyoby

The article has a map with general areas of the city. It specifically cover *inner city* as an area.

Umm, the link you posted has maps of the city with regions. The region for the inner city is called 'city centre' and it's what most would define as the *inner city*. That region saw decreases in apartments while many of the outer areas saw increases.

[Daemon]

Telus

[Daemon]

[Daemon]

Cranes at t west end downtown



photo through the ice